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STR AND TOURISM Economics downgraded their growth rate forecast for the U.S. hotel business with their final revision of 2024. The forecast for next year remains uncertain as the impact of the presidential election becomes clear. For 2024, projected gains in ADR and RevPAR were each downgraded, down 0.5 percentage points to 1.5 percent growth for ADR and with RevPAR's projected growth dropping 0.6 ppts to 1.4 percent, respectively. Occupancy for the year was lowered 0.1 ppts to 62.9 percent, after the previous forecast projected the metric to remain steady from 2023. For 2025, the occupancy growth projection was downgraded 0.4 ppts, and the forecast for ADR and RevPAR increases were lowered to 1.6 percent and 1.8 percent, respectively. "The outlook for 2025 remains somewhat in flux, with positive sentiment potentially offset by the higher cost of living," said Amanda Hite, STR president. "Based on current economic conditions, higher-end hotels will continue to drive industry performance. The change in the presidential administration is anticipated to yield stronger economic conditions at first, which is not yet reflected in the data."

ADR is projected to rise by 0.1 percentage points in 2024, with occupancy and RevPAR remaining unchanged from the previous forecast, according to STR and Tourism Economics' initial U.S. hotel forecast for 2024 at the Americas Lodging Investment Summit. Yet, 2025 projections for key performance metrics were revised downward due to stabilized long-term average trends: occupancy down 0.1 percentage points, ADR down 0.3 points and RevPAR down 0.5 ppts. "U.S. ADR and RevPAR reached record highs in 2023 with solid travel fundamentals and a big year for group business underpinning performance," said Amanda Hite, STR president. "We expect to see continued growth as fundamentals remain more favorable for the travel economy. The indicator that is especially important is the low unemployment rate among college-educated individuals, those most likely to travel for business and leisure." The STR and Tourism Economics forecast a rise in GOPPAR growth due to increased TRevPAR levels and stable labor costs. Among chain scales, luxury and upper upscale hotels are expected to see substantial cost increases, driven by growing group demand.

U.S. HOTEL REVPAR is expected to grow steadily in 2024, driven by improving group business, inbound international travel, and traditional transient business demand, according to CBRE. This follows a strong performance in 2023 that muted the new forecast in some areas. The research firm forecasted a 3 percent increase in RevPAR growth in 2024, with occupancy improving by 45 basis points and ADR increasing by 2.3 percent. It indicates ongoing recovery of the lodging industry, with RevPAR in 2024 expected to surpass 2019 levels by 13.2 percent, CBRE Hotels said in a statement. CBRE's baseline forecast expects 1.6 percent GDP growth and 2.5 percent average inflation in 2024. Given the strong correlation between GDP and RevPAR growth, the economy's strength will directly impact the lodging industry's performance, the statement said. "We expect RevPAR growth to be slower in the first quarter due to last year's strong performance, but to reach its peak in the third quarter driven by the influx of inbound international travelers during the busy summer season," said Rachael Rothman, CBRE's head of hotel research and data analytics. "Urban and airport locations should particularly benefit from group and inbound international travel, as well as the normalization of leisure travel."

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE improved in the second week of September compared to the previous week, but year-over-year results remained negative, according to CoStar. Key metrics-occupancy, RevPAR and ADR-all saw week-over-week growth. Occupancy rose to 66.6 percent for the week ending Sept. 14, up from 57.8 percent the previous week but 1.7 percent lower year-over-year. ADR reached $162.05, an increase from $149.67 the prior week and 0.2 percent higher than the same week last year. RevPAR climbed to $107.86 from $86.48, though it marked a 1.4 percent decline compared to the same period in 2023. Among the top 25 markets, San Diego posted the highest year-over-year occupancy gain, up 10.5 percent to 79.9 percent. Chicago recorded the largest ADR increase, up 15.5 percent to $216.57

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE remained mixed in the fourth week of September compared to the prior week, according to CoStar. However, the industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons. Key metrics showed a slight decline in occupancy, while RevPAR and ADR experienced week-over-week growth. Occupancy dipped slightly to 68.4 percent for the week ending Sept. 28, down from 68.9 percent the previous week, but up 2.6 percent year-over-year. ADR rose to $170.24, an increase from $168.80 the prior week, and 7.5 percent higher than the same week last year. RevPAR edged up to $116.50 from $116.22, reflecting a 10.2 percent increase compared to the same period in 2023. Among the top 25 markets, New York City recorded the highest year-over-year increases in all key performance metrics: occupancy rose by 11.4 percent to 93.2 percent, ADR increased by 52.8 percent to $523.69, and RevPAR grew by 70.1 percent to $488.32. The market's performance was bolstered by the United Nations General Assembly.

STR AND TOURISM Economics updated their 2024-25 U.S. hotel forecast, raising projected occupancy by 0.2 percentage points and revising the previous forecast of a year-over-year decline. However, ADR gains were downgraded by 0.1 percentage points, while RevPAR remained unchanged at a 2 percent year-over-year increase. The occupancy growth projection for 2025 was also lifted by 0.2 percentage points, while ADR and RevPAR increases remained at 2 percent and 2.6 percent, respectively, STR and TE said in a joint statement. "Midscale and economy hotels are continuing to feel the effect of fewer lower-income travelers," said Amanda Hite, STR's president. "On the other hand, high-income households continue to travel, but domestic levels are constrained due to an increase in outbound travel. The stronger dollar continues to pressure international inbound demand, especially as the cost-of-living crisis continues in Europe and airlift rebuilds across Asia Pacific."

U.S. HOTELS ARE likely to report improved RevPAR growth in the second half of the year, following a weak first quarter, according to CBRE. International tourism and other economic factors are expected to provide a boost to performance. A 2 percent increase in RevPAR growth is forecasted for 2024, down from the 3 percent estimated in February. RevPAR is now expected to grow by 3 percent for the remainder of the year, driven by international tourists, holiday travel, and limited supply growth. It is projecting GDP growth of 2.3 percent and average inflation of 3.2 percent in 2024. The performance of the lodging industry is closely tied to the strength of the economy, as there is typically a strong correlation between GDP and RevPAR growth, CBRE said in a statement.

STR AND TOURISM ECONOMICS have increased year-over-year growth projections for ADR and RevPAR in the final revision of the U.S. hotel forecast for 2023. While some factors, such as higher interest rates and more restrictive lending, may impact the economy, their effect on the travel industry is not expected to be strong. In 2023, RevPAR saw a 0.3 percentage point increase, propelled by a 0.6ppt rise in ADR growth, according to STR and TE. Meanwhile, recent RevPAR trends affirm rate as the predominant performance driver. Occupancy was downgraded by 0.2ppts, STR and TE said in a statement. Growth projections for key performance metrics in 2024 remained flat from the previous forecast, reflecting the stabilization of long-term average trends.

STR AND TOURISM Economics made significant downward adjustments to the 2024-25 U.S. hotel forecast, reflecting lower-than-expected performance and reduced growth projections for the remainder of the year. Projected gains in ADR and RevPAR were downgraded by 1 and 2.1 percentage points, respectively. Occupancy is also expected to decline, contrasting with the previous forecast's projection of year-over-year growth in this metric. While an occupancy growth projection was maintained for 2025, ADR and RevPAR were adjusted downward by 0.8 and 0.9 percentage points, respectively, STR and TE said in a joint statement. "We have seen a bifurcation in hotel performance over the first four months of the year, which we don't believe will abate soon," said Amanda Hite, STR's president. "The increased cost of living is affecting lower-to-middle income households and their ability to travel, thus lessening demand for hotels in the lower price tier. The upscale through luxury tier is seeing healthy demand, but pricing power has waned given changes in mix and travel patterns and to a lesser extent, economic conditions. Travel remains a priority for most Americans, but the volume has lessened as prices on goods and services continue to rise."

U.S. EXTENDED-STAY HOTELS posted record-high demand, ADR and RevPAR despite reporting a third consecutive occupancy decline during the third quarter of 2024, according to The Highland Group. Occupancy declines have been minimal and average occupancy remains more than 11 percentage points above the overall hotel industry year-to-date through the third quarter. The overall hotel industry saw a slightly smaller occupancy decline year-to-date through the third quarter than extended-stay hotels, according to STR/CoStar. The broader industry also posted stronger ADR growth, yielding a full percentage RevPAR gain, surpassing the 0.4 percent increase for extended-stay hotels. The 2024 Third Quarter US Extended-Stay Hotels Report found that the upper-upscale and luxury segments are helping lift overall hotel industry performance. With minimal extended-stay rooms in these categories, STR/CoStar data shows a 0.3 percent year-to-date RevPAR gain when they are excluded-closely aligning with extended-stay hotel performance.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE improved in the second week of May compared to the previous week, with positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar. Key metrics such as occupancy, RevPAR, and ADR all increased week-over-week. Occupancy rose to 66.1 percent for the week ending May 11, up from 64.4 percent the previous week, representing a 2.1 percent year-over-year increase. ADR increased to $162.14 from $159.97, a 4.4 percent rise compared to last year. RevPAR reached $107.24, up from $103.09 the prior week, showing a 6.6 percent increase compared to the same period in 2023. Among the top 25 markets, San Francisco reported the highest year-over-year increases in each of the three key performance metrics: occupancy increased by 20.6 percent to 79.3 percent, ADR rose by 54.5 percent to $313.13, and RevPAR increased by 86.3 percent to $248.28. The market's performance was boosted by the RSA Conference.

DEMAND, WAGE GROWTH and ADR increase remain the top concerns in hospitality industry, according to the Hospitality Asset Managers Association's Fall 2024 Industry Outlook Survey. However, about 82 percent of respondents do not expect a recession in 2025. Furthermore, approximately 58 percent have made or plan to make changes to brand or management as part of their strategy. "The overall hospitality industry outlook remains positive from the hotel asset management point of view," said Sarah Gulla, HAMA's president. "For the most part, our member hotels continue to exceed budgeted forecasts, and there seems to be little fear of a recession on the immediate horizon. While demand and wage increases remain persistent concerns, this is a solid time to be in the hospitality industry."

U.S. HOTELS SAW their performance improve for the week ending Feb. 1, with year-over-year gains, according to CoStar. ADR dipped slightly, while occupancy and RevPAR rose week over week. Occupancy increased to 56.5 percent for the week ending Feb. 1, from 54.3 percent the previous week, marking a 2.3 percent year-over-year increase. ADR dropped to $150.25 from $154.21, while still reflecting a 1.8 percent increase compared to the same period last year. RevPAR rose to $84.90 from $83.74, a 4.1 percent year-over-year increase. Minneapolis led the top 25 markets in year-over-year occupancy growth, up 13.6 percent to 47.4 percent, while RevPAR rose 16.7 percent to $56.67. Orlando saw the largest ADR increase, up 7.4 percent to $224.62.

U.S. EXTENDED-STAY HOTEL occupancy declined across 59 MSAs in 2023 compared to 2019, primarily due to significant ADR growth over the past three years, according to The Highland Group. Additionally, extended-stay hotel RevPAR surged in more than 80 percent of MSAs, with ten of them, including four major hotel markets, experiencing gains exceeding 10 percent. Despite an 8 percent increase in the number of extended-stay hotel rooms under construction in the 100 largest MSAs over the past year, the figures remain below pre-pandemic levels, the report said. The resurgence in occupancy was notably led by smaller markets, where strong ADR increases and supply expansion played pivotal roles in driving the lowest occupancy recovery indices for MSAs in 2023.

MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL REPORTED a 3 percent increase in global RevPAR, with 2.1 percent growth in the U.S. and Canada and 5.4 percent in international markets for the third quarter. Net income totaled $584 million, and approximately 16,000 net rooms were added during the quarter. "Marriott had another solid quarter, highlighted by strong net rooms and fee growth, robust development activity, and a 3 percent increase in global RevPAR," said Anthony Capuano, Marriott's president and CEO. "Third-quarter international RevPAR rose 5.4 percent, led by gains in APEC and EMEA, with resilient domestic and cross-border demand and solid ADR growth. U.S. & Canada RevPAR increased over 2 percent year-over-year, with ADR up 2.3 percent." Capuano noted the group segment stood out, with global group RevPAR rising 10 percent and expected to grow 8 percent for 2024. "RevPAR for the business transient segment continued to grow, while leisure transient RevPAR remained flat year-over-year but still well ahead of pre-pandemic levels," he said.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE is expected to rebound in the fourth quarter and continue into 2025 despite subdued summer demand and a sluggish third quarter, according to CBRE. RevPAR growth for 2024 is now projected at 0.5 percent, down from 1.2 percent in August, due to a 40 bps drop in expected occupancy. Occupancy is forecast to decline 30 bps year-over-year while ADR is projected to rise 0.7 percent, 40 bps below earlier forecasts, the report said. RevPAR growth is expected to rebound in the four quarter of 2024, driven by rate cuts, easing inflation and stock market gains. "U.S. hotels performance was softer-than-expected during the summer months, partly due to Americans traveling overseas in record numbers," said Rachael Rothman, CBRE's head of hotel research and data analytics. "At the same time, the slow recovery in inbound international travel has created an imbalance in U.S. leisure demand. Despite this, continued improvements in group and business travel served as relative bright spots in the third quarter."

U.S. EXTENDED-STAY HOTELS ended 2024 strong after a slow start, with supply, demand and room revenue growth outpacing the overall industry, according to The Highland Group. However, ADR and RevPAR growth lagged yet stayed positive, with stronger gains in the latter half. The Highland Group's report on the U.S. Extended-Stay Hotel Market 2025 found that although below the long-term average, extended-stay supply growth in 2024 was the highest since 2021 and is set to accelerate over the next one to three years. "Fundamental differences, such as far higher interest rates and real construction costs, exist between the current and most recent extended-stay hotel growth cycles, but a substantial increase in room revenues remains likely over the next one to three years," said Mark Skinner, The Highland Group's partner.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE improved in the first week of November, though year-over-year comparisons remained negative as expected due to the U.S. election, according to CoStar. Key metrics, including occupancy, RevPAR and ADR, rose from the previous week. Occupancy rose to 62.6 percent for the week ending Nov. 9, up from 60.8 percent the prior week but down 3.5 percent year-over-year. ADR increased to $156.11 from $154.99, reflecting a 0.1 percent year-over-year decline. RevPAR grew to $97.73 from $94.22, showing a 3.5 percent decrease compared to the same week in 2023. Among the top 25 markets, Las Vegas posted the largest year-over-year growth in each key performance metric: occupancy rose 6.8 percent to 85.4 percent, ADR increased 28.2 percent to $256.38 and RevPAR climbed 36.9 percent to $219.07.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE reported positive year-over-year comparisons for the fourth week of August, according to CoStar. However, key metrics, including occupancy, RevPAR, and ADR, declined compared to the previous week. Occupancy fell to 66.1 percent for the week ending Aug. 24, down from 66.9 percent the previous week, but up 1.7 percent year-over-year. ADR was $154.80, lower than the prior week's $156.35, but 2.7 percent higher than the same week last year. RevPAR fell to $102.30 from $104.54 the previous week, yet was still 4.5 percent higher compared to the same period in 2023. Driven by the Democratic National Convention, Chicago experienced the largest increases in ADR, which rose 41.8 percent to $215.60, and RevPAR, which jumped 51.1 percent to $156.32. The market's occupancy increased 6.5 percent to 72.5 percent.

HILTON WORLDWIDE HOLDINGS reported net income of $422 million for the second quarter ending June 30, up from $413 million last year. The development pipeline grew 15 percent year-over-year to 3,870 hotels with 508,300 rooms, an 8 percent increase from the previous quarter. Systemwide RevPAR rose 3.5 percent year-over-year due to higher occupancy and ADR. "We are pleased to report a solid second quarter, with an increase in RevPAR of 3.5 percent, driven by growth in all segments, with particularly strong group performance," said Christopher Nassetta, Hilton's president and CEO. "On the development side, we ended the quarter with a record development pipeline, up 15 percent from the prior year and up 8 percent sequentially from the first quarter, including strategic partner hotels. Looking forward to the rest of the year, with the continued growth of our existing brands, as well as the addition of our new brands and strategic partner hotels, we expect net unit growth of 7 percent to 7.5 percent for the full year." Adjusted EBITDA for the three months ended June 30 was $917 million, up from $811 million in 2023, Hilton said. Management and franchise fee revenues increased by 10 percent year-over-year. In the US, second-quarter occupancy rose by 1.1 percentage points to 76.8 percent, ADR increased by 1.4 percent to $172.36, and RevPAR climbed 2.9 percent to $132.33.