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STEERED BY SEVERAL factors, including the strong performance by several hotel brands, the Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index increased 1.4 percent in April to a level of 5,430, STR said in a statement. Growth is slowing, STR said, but will continue for the next quarter or more. "Hotel stocks increased in April, and the gains were driven by outperformance from the global hotel brands," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "RevPAR trends have remained solid in the face of growing macroeconomic uncertainties and continued banking turmoil, and first-quarter earnings generally have surprised to the upside with positive full-year estimate revisions occurring. The Hotel REITs declined more than 2 percent in April and underperformed the RMZ, while the global hotel brands gained just over 2.5 percent and outperformed the S&P 500's return by 100 bps." According to STR, the Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index fell slightly behind the S&P 500, which was up 1.5 percent in April but came in above the MSCI US REIT Index, up 0.7 percent. The hotel brand sub-index jumped 2.5 percent from March to 10,178, while the hotel REIT sub-index dropped 2.6 percent to 1,045, it added. "The industry continues to revert to normal patterns and calendar shifts with growth slowing as forecasted," said Amanda Hite, STR president. "Monthly demand fell year over year for the first time since the recovery began in April 2021, but that decrease can be attributed to an extra Sunday on the calendar this year versus last. Without the extra Sunday, which is historically a low-performance night, demand would have been slightly up from last year. ADR, on the other hand, grew 3.4 percent, while RevPAR was up 1.8 percent - the lowest increase of the recovery thus far. Despite slowing growth, we expect the industry to see further gains throughout the summer and fall."

OCCUPANCY FOR U.S. hotels is now expected to finish the year a little down from the previous forecast by STR and Tourism Economics. However, projections for ADR and RevPAR recovery remain on track in the data firms' final forecast of the year. RevPAR is still expected to fully recover this year on a nominal basis, but not until 2025 when adjusted for inflation, according to the new forecast. The updated forecast lowered occupancy by less than a percentage point for 2022, standing now at 62.7 percent compared to the previously forecasted 63 percent released in August. "As expected, group business travel has been much more aligned with pre-pandemic patterns, specifically in October when group demand hit a pandemic-era high," said Amanda Hite, STR president. "Leisure travel has maintained its strength since our previous forecast update, and we expect these strong demand trends in both group and leisure to continue through the fourth quarter. Bottom-line performance has also persisted, with our most recent data showing strong profit margins due to lower employment levels and reduced services. The challenges around labor continue to be a concern, as high levels of hospitality unemployment and more spending on contract labor are pushing labor costs on a per-available-room basis above 2019 levels. We continue to take inflation and the likely recession into consideration, but the hotel industry has continued to show resilience through these tougher times, thus the steadiness of our updated forecast."

ADR is projected to rise by 0.1 percentage points in 2024, with occupancy and RevPAR remaining unchanged from the previous forecast, according to STR and Tourism Economics' initial U.S. hotel forecast for 2024 at the Americas Lodging Investment Summit. Yet, 2025 projections for key performance metrics were revised downward due to stabilized long-term average trends: occupancy down 0.1 percentage points, ADR down 0.3 points and RevPAR down 0.5 ppts. "U.S. ADR and RevPAR reached record highs in 2023 with solid travel fundamentals and a big year for group business underpinning performance," said Amanda Hite, STR president. "We expect to see continued growth as fundamentals remain more favorable for the travel economy. The indicator that is especially important is the low unemployment rate among college-educated individuals, those most likely to travel for business and leisure." The STR and Tourism Economics forecast a rise in GOPPAR growth due to increased TRevPAR levels and stable labor costs. Among chain scales, luxury and upper upscale hotels are expected to see substantial cost increases, driven by growing group demand.

THE REVPAR OF U.S. hotels is expected to surpass 2019 levels this year, according to the upgraded forecast by STR and Tourism Economics. Still, full recovery may be a couple of years away. ADR and RevPAR for U.S. hotels are forecasted at $14 and $6 higher in 2022 respectively, when compared to 2019, the report presented at the 44th annual NYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference stated. However, occupancy in this year is projected to come in under the pre-pandemic comparable. Earlier, the forecast projected nominal RevPAR recovery in 2023. According to the forecast, the major factor in the revised timeline was a plus $11 adjustment in 2022 ADR. But, when adjusted for inflation, full recovery of ADR and RevPAR are not projected until 2024. The report added that central business districts and the top 25 markets are not expected to reach full RevPAR recovery until after 2024.

STR AND TOURISM ECONOMICS have increased year-over-year growth projections for ADR and RevPAR in the final revision of the U.S. hotel forecast for 2023. While some factors, such as higher interest rates and more restrictive lending, may impact the economy, their effect on the travel industry is not expected to be strong. In 2023, RevPAR saw a 0.3 percentage point increase, propelled by a 0.6ppt rise in ADR growth, according to STR and TE. Meanwhile, recent RevPAR trends affirm rate as the predominant performance driver. Occupancy was downgraded by 0.2ppts, STR and TE said in a statement. Growth projections for key performance metrics in 2024 remained flat from the previous forecast, reflecting the stabilization of long-term average trends.

THE BAIRD/STR Hotel Stock Index rose in March, continuing a trend from the previous month. Still, continued growth remains at risk by factors such as inflation and political unrest. The index increased 2.2 percent in March after rising 4.1 percent in February. It rose 2.4 percent year to date through the first three months of 2022. However, Baird/STR fell behind both the S&P 500, up 3.6 percent in March, and the MSCI US REIT Index, which rose 5.9 percent. The hotel brand sub-index rose 1.4 percent from February, while the Hotel REIT sub-index jumped 5.1 percent. "Hotel stocks increased in March but underperformed their benchmarks as stock market volatility eased and geopolitical concerns did not worsen," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "Underlying hotel fundamentals continued to improve in March, and the outlook appears more favorable today than just one month ago despite all of the background noise in the stock market and with interest rates on the rise. Higher gas prices and heightened concerns about a slower growth backdrop have been topical with investors lately, but broader travel momentum and pent-up demand should keep the lodging recovery going over the near term, in our opinion."

OCCUPANCY PROJECTIONS ARE dropping while ADR projections are rising in a new forecast for U.S. hotels by STR and Tourism Economics. RevPAR is still expected to recover fully on a nominal basis this year, according to the forecast released Thursday at STR's 14th Annual Hotel Data Conference in Nashville. However, RevPAR is still expected to take until 2025 to recover when adjusted for inflation, according to the forecast. For 2022, RevPAR is now expected to average $93 compared to the projection of $92 released in June, when projected nominal RevPAR recovery was set in 2023. The occupancy projection for the year was lowered to 64.6 percent for the year and the ADR projection rose to $148. The updated forecast adds a little more than $2 to the ADR projection for both 2022 and 2023, and occupancy was lowered by less than a percentage point for each year.

THE BAIRD/STR Hotel Stock Index rose 12.7 percent in December over the previous month. It was up 25.6 percent for 2021 as a whole. The index outperformed both the S&P 500, up 4.4 percent, and the MSCI US REIT Index, which rose 8.2 percent in December. The hotel brand sub-index increased 13.2 percent from November while the Hotel REIT sub-index rose 10.9 percent. Investment was bolstered by some, if not good, then less bad than expected news regarding the COVID-19 pandemic, said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "Hotel stocks ended a volatile year with strong gains in December as the worst-case scenarios related to the Omicron variant appeared unlikely to unfold as initially feared," Bellisario said. "With the big rebound into year-end, the hotel brands ended up slightly outperforming the S&P 500 in 2021, while the hotel REITs - despite gaining 12 percent on the year - significantly lagged the RMZ's best-ever annual performance. Turning the calendar to 2022, leisure travel strength is expected to persist, but the wildcard for the overall industry's continued recovery remains a more substantialreturn of the business traveler."

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE moved closer to pre-pandemic levels during the third week of November according to STR. It dipped, however, from the week before. Occupancy was 59.7 percent for the week ending Nov. 20, down from 61.6 percent for the week before and a slight decrease of 2.1 percent from the same period two years ago. ADR for the third week of the month was $126.66, down from $129.98 the week before and increased 1.7 percent when compared to two years ago. RevPAR decreased to $75.60 for the third week of the month from $80.02 the week before, and a slight drop of 0.4 percent for the same period in 2019. Among STR's top 25 markets, Phoenix saw the largest occupancy increase during the week under review, up 6.4 percent to 76.6 percent over 2019. Miami reported the largest ADR increase when compared to 2019, 25.5 percent to $207.72. Oahu Island, Hawaii, experienced the steepest occupancy decline from 2019, down 35.2 percent to 51.8 percent.

THE UPWARD MOVEMENT of ADR for U.S. hotels lifted the forecast for the market by STR and Tourism Economics. The travel research firms released the new forecast during the opening sessions of the Americas Lodging Investment Summit in Los Angeles on Monday. The recovery timeline laid out in the new forecast remains mostly the same as the previous forecast released in November, with ADR will near full recovery this year. RevPAR is anticipated to exceed 2019 levels in 2023, but when adjusted for inflation ADR and RevPAR are not projected to reach full recovery until after 2025. Occupancy is projected to surpass 2019 levels in 2023. "The industry recaptured 83 percent of pre-pandemic RevPAR levels in 2021, and momentum is expected to pick up after a slow start to this year," said Carter Wilson, STR's senior vice president of consulting. "With so much of that RevPAR recovery being led by leisure-driven ADR, however, it is important to keep an eye on the real versus the nominal. Terms of recovery are not playing out evenly across the board, and many hoteliers have had to raise rates to minimize the bottom-line hit from labor and supply shortages. We are anticipating inflation to remain higher throughout the first half of the year with a gradual leveling off during the third and fourth quarters. If that happens, and we avoid major setbacks with the pandemic, this year will certainly be one to watch with demand and occupancy also shaping up to hit significant levels during the second half."

AS THE HOLIDAY season dwindles into the past, so did U.S. hotels' performance, according to STR. Occupancy dropped, dragging ADR and RevPAR with it. Occupancy was 45.4 percent for the week ending Jan. 8, down from 54.3 percent the week before and down 14.9 percent from the comparable week in 2019. ADR was $119.92 for the week, down from $157.91 week over week and a 4.8 percent drop from 2019. RevPAR reached $54.47, a decline from $85.74 the prior week and down 19 percent from 2019. "Occupancy fell week over week because of a slowdown in leisure demand and a continued absence of business travel due to a Saturday holiday," STR said. "While ADR also dropped from an all-time high the previous week, the metric came in at roughly 95 percent of the 2019 comparable." Occupancy did not increase over 2019 levels for any of STR's top 25 markets, but Dallas came closest, falling shy by 6.6 percent with 55.1 percent.

AS A RESULT of a larger impact from the Omicron variant, U.S. hotel occupancy worsened in the second week of January in comparison with pre-pandemic levels, according to STR. However, occupancy was higher than the previous week on an absolute basis. Occupancy was 48.8 percent for the week ending Jan. 15, up from 45.4 percent the week before and down 16.3 percent from the comparable week in 2019. ADR was $122.12 for the week, up from $119.92 the week before, but down 1.6 percent from two years ago. RevPAR reached $59.57, up from $54.47 the prior week and down 17.6 percent from the same period two years ago. According to STR, ADR and RevPAR were up week over week and when indexed to 2019.

ADR FOR U.S. hotels was the highest in February for any month since August 2021, according to STR. The U.S. hotel industry reported higher performance during the month from the month before. Occupancy was 56.9 percent for February, up from 47.8 percent in January and down 8.2 percent compared to same period in 2019. ADR was $137.39 for the month, increased from $123.51 the prior month and up 6.8 percent from the same month two years ago. RevPAR was $78.24, up from $58.98 in January and down 1.9 percent from two years ago. The February ADR level was roughly 5 percent below the 2019 level when adjusted for inflation, the report said.

THE REVPAR OF hotels in Phoenix is forecasted to reach $419 for Super Bowl weekend of February 10-12, the second-highest level for the event, according to STR. As the city also hosts Phoenix Open this week, the Friday through Sunday night occupancy may touch 94 percent and ADR to hit $445. According to STR, a unique volume of demand would push occupancy slightly higher than Phoenix's last host year in 2015 (93.7 percent) even though supply increased by 11.7 percent this year. The ADR level would rank third among host markets behind Miami in 2020 and San Francisco in 2016. "Phoenix's jump in RevPAR during its last Super Bowl host year was staggering, and this time around will be no different with big-time growth contribution from both occupancy and ADR," said Isaac Collazo, STR's vice president of analytics. "Demand speaks for itself, especially with consumer behavior around the event free of pandemic concerns-unlike the last two Super Bowls. Phoenix's ADR situation has different influences than recent host markets given inflation and having less upper-tier supply than a Los Angeles or Miami." The overall Phoenix market comprises 544 hotels with 70,488 rooms.

PROFITS ROSE IN October for U.S. hotels on a month-to-month basis, according to STR. However, the numbers are still down versus 2019, indicating a bump in the road to recovery. GOPPAR for the month was $62.75, according to STR's monthly P&L data release, up from $46.29 in September. TRevPAR for the month was $165.03, compared to $140.94 the month before, and EBITDA PAR was $44.14, up from $30.47 in September. At the same time, labor costs also rose from $47.50 the previous month to $52.17 inOctober. Estimated industrywide gross operating profit was 89 percent of October 2019 levels, after coming in at 97 percent in September. Labor costs reached 91 percent of pre-pandemic comparables in October after reaching a high of 96 percent in September. "October data was important to analyze from multiple angles," said Raquel Ortiz, STR's assistant director of financial performance. "The metrics were up quite a bit from September if you measure by available rooms, but that's to be expected as October is usually a stronger revenue month due to conferences and group travel. When you extrapolate and bring in the comparison to pre-pandemic times, performance was lower. Fortunately, even with less corporate business this year, profit margins (38 percent) still came relatively close to what we saw in 2019 (40.9 percent)."

THE U.S. HOTEL industry will continue its recovery in 2022, but the path will be uneven and potentially volatile, according to a report by the American Hotel & Lodging Association. It added that a full recovery from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic will take several years. AHLA's 2022 State of the Hotel Industry report also revealed shifts in consumer and business sentiment. The report was created in collaboration with Accenture and is based on data and forecasts from Oxford Economics and STR. According to the report, hotel occupancy rates and room revenue will approach 2019 levels this year, but the outlook for ancillary revenue, which includes F&B and meeting space, is less optimistic. Leisure travelers will continue to drive recovery, the report added. Hotels lost a collective $111.8 billion in room revenue alone during 2020 and 2021. Business travelers made up 52.5 percent of industry room revenue in 2019 and it will be 43.6 percent in 2022. Business travel will be down more than 20 percent for much of the year, the report said. As the full effects of Omicron is not yet known, just 58 percent of meetings and events are expected to return. AHLA report said that the rapid rise of bleisure travelers-those who blend business and leisure travel-are impacting hotel operations now. A recent study revealed that 89 percent of business travelers wanted to add a private holiday to their business trips in the next twelve months.

A SLIGHT DROP was witnessed in U.S. hotel performance in the first week of April from the week before due to a continuing slump in Spring Break travel, according to STR. Little movement was seen in the top 25 markets as well. Occupancy was 64.1 percent for the week ending April 2, down from 65.5 percent the week before and down 6.4 percent for the same period in 2019. ADR was $145.74 for the week, dropped from $149.38 the week before and increased 11.7 percent from two years ago. RevPAR was $93.48 for the week, dipped from $97.92 the week before and up 4.5 percent from the same period in 2019.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE was down in the first week of March from the week before, according to STR. However, ADR was up during the week compared to 2019. Occupancy was 61.2 percent for the week ending March 5, down from 62.2 percent the week before and down 8.2 percent for the same period in 2019. ADR was $137.96 for the week, decreased from $143.83 the week before and up 4.7 percent from two years ago. RevPAR was $84.39 for the week, down from $89.45 the week before and down 3.8 percent from the same period two years ago. None of STR's top 25 markets showed an occupancy increase during the period over 2019. Norfolk/Virginia Beach came closest to its 2019 comparable, down just 0.8 percent to 56.3 percent.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE was up in the second week of March from the week before, according to STR. ADR was up during the week compared to two years ago. Occupancy was 63.2 percent for the week ending March 12, up from 61.2 percent the week before and down 9.8 percent for the same period in 2019. ADR was $144.68 for the week, increased from $137.96 the week before and up7.7 percent from two years ago. RevPAR was $91.45 for the week, up from $84.39 the week before and down 2.8 percent from the same period two years ago. None of STR's top 25 markets showed an occupancy increase during the period when compared to two years ago. Miami came closest to its 2019 comparable, down 4.7 percent to 84.1 percent.

ADR GROWTH FOR U.S. extended-stay hotels reached a record high in February, according to hotel investment advisors The Highland Group. Owing to this, the segment saw record high demand and monthly RevPAR up by more than 40 percent during the month compared to a year ago. During the month, occupancy growth was also significant with extended-stay hotel's occupancy premium compared to the overall hotel industry staying well above its long-term average. The 3.1 percent increase in extended-stay room supply in February is the fifth consecutive month of 4 percent or lower supply growth, according to "U.S. Extended-Stay Hotels Bulletin: February 2022" report by Highland Group. It suggested that mid-price and upscale supply increases should be well below pre-pandemic levels during the near term, the report added.