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U.S. HOTEL REVPAR is expected to grow steadily in 2024, driven by improving group business, inbound international travel, and traditional transient business demand, according to CBRE. This follows a strong performance in 2023 that muted the new forecast in some areas. The research firm forecasted a 3 percent increase in RevPAR growth in 2024, with occupancy improving by 45 basis points and ADR increasing by 2.3 percent. It indicates ongoing recovery of the lodging industry, with RevPAR in 2024 expected to surpass 2019 levels by 13.2 percent, CBRE Hotels said in a statement. CBRE's baseline forecast expects 1.6 percent GDP growth and 2.5 percent average inflation in 2024. Given the strong correlation between GDP and RevPAR growth, the economy's strength will directly impact the lodging industry's performance, the statement said. "We expect RevPAR growth to be slower in the first quarter due to last year's strong performance, but to reach its peak in the third quarter driven by the influx of inbound international travelers during the busy summer season," said Rachael Rothman, CBRE's head of hotel research and data analytics. "Urban and airport locations should particularly benefit from group and inbound international travel, as well as the normalization of leisure travel."

THE REVPAR OF U.S. hotels is expected to surpass 2019 levels this year, according to the upgraded forecast by STR and Tourism Economics. Still, full recovery may be a couple of years away. ADR and RevPAR for U.S. hotels are forecasted at $14 and $6 higher in 2022 respectively, when compared to 2019, the report presented at the 44th annual NYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference stated. However, occupancy in this year is projected to come in under the pre-pandemic comparable. Earlier, the forecast projected nominal RevPAR recovery in 2023. According to the forecast, the major factor in the revised timeline was a plus $11 adjustment in 2022 ADR. But, when adjusted for inflation, full recovery of ADR and RevPAR are not projected until 2024. The report added that central business districts and the top 25 markets are not expected to reach full RevPAR recovery until after 2024.

CBRE HOTELS RECENTLY reduced U.S. hotel forecast as lodging demand dips amid soft leisure travel and slower corporate profit growth. The upcoming election in November and other economic factors led to the revisions. The research group now projects a 1.2 percent RevPAR increase for 2024, down from 2 percent in May. However, it expects a 2 percent RevPAR growth in the second half of 2024, up from 0.5 percent in the first half, driven by international tourism and election events. Lodging industry performance is closely linked to economic strength, with GDP growth generally correlating with RevPAR growth, CBRE said in a statement. The company forecasts 2.3 percent GDP growth and 3.2 percent average inflation for 2024. "We expect low single-digit RevPAR growth over the near-term as election-related events, growth in inbound international travel and an anticipated lower interest rate environment should support hotel demand," said Rachael Rothman, CBRE's head of hotel research and data analytics. "Challenges including weakening consumer spending and increased competition from short-term rentals, cruise lines and other lodging alternatives pose downside risks."

ADR is projected to rise by 0.1 percentage points in 2024, with occupancy and RevPAR remaining unchanged from the previous forecast, according to STR and Tourism Economics' initial U.S. hotel forecast for 2024 at the Americas Lodging Investment Summit. Yet, 2025 projections for key performance metrics were revised downward due to stabilized long-term average trends: occupancy down 0.1 percentage points, ADR down 0.3 points and RevPAR down 0.5 ppts. "U.S. ADR and RevPAR reached record highs in 2023 with solid travel fundamentals and a big year for group business underpinning performance," said Amanda Hite, STR president. "We expect to see continued growth as fundamentals remain more favorable for the travel economy. The indicator that is especially important is the low unemployment rate among college-educated individuals, those most likely to travel for business and leisure." The STR and Tourism Economics forecast a rise in GOPPAR growth due to increased TRevPAR levels and stable labor costs. Among chain scales, luxury and upper upscale hotels are expected to see substantial cost increases, driven by growing group demand.

U.S. HOTELS ARE likely to report improved RevPAR growth in the second half of the year, following a weak first quarter, according to CBRE. International tourism and other economic factors are expected to provide a boost to performance. A 2 percent increase in RevPAR growth is forecasted for 2024, down from the 3 percent estimated in February. RevPAR is now expected to grow by 3 percent for the remainder of the year, driven by international tourists, holiday travel, and limited supply growth. It is projecting GDP growth of 2.3 percent and average inflation of 3.2 percent in 2024. The performance of the lodging industry is closely tied to the strength of the economy, as there is typically a strong correlation between GDP and RevPAR growth, CBRE said in a statement.

STR AND TOURISM Economics downgraded their growth rate forecast for the U.S. hotel business with their final revision of 2024. The forecast for next year remains uncertain as the impact of the presidential election becomes clear. For 2024, projected gains in ADR and RevPAR were each downgraded, down 0.5 percentage points to 1.5 percent growth for ADR and with RevPAR's projected growth dropping 0.6 ppts to 1.4 percent, respectively. Occupancy for the year was lowered 0.1 ppts to 62.9 percent, after the previous forecast projected the metric to remain steady from 2023. For 2025, the occupancy growth projection was downgraded 0.4 ppts, and the forecast for ADR and RevPAR increases were lowered to 1.6 percent and 1.8 percent, respectively. "The outlook for 2025 remains somewhat in flux, with positive sentiment potentially offset by the higher cost of living," said Amanda Hite, STR president. "Based on current economic conditions, higher-end hotels will continue to drive industry performance. The change in the presidential administration is anticipated to yield stronger economic conditions at first, which is not yet reflected in the data."

STR AND TOURISM ECONOMICS have increased year-over-year growth projections for ADR and RevPAR in the final revision of the U.S. hotel forecast for 2023. While some factors, such as higher interest rates and more restrictive lending, may impact the economy, their effect on the travel industry is not expected to be strong. In 2023, RevPAR saw a 0.3 percentage point increase, propelled by a 0.6ppt rise in ADR growth, according to STR and TE. Meanwhile, recent RevPAR trends affirm rate as the predominant performance driver. Occupancy was downgraded by 0.2ppts, STR and TE said in a statement. Growth projections for key performance metrics in 2024 remained flat from the previous forecast, reflecting the stabilization of long-term average trends.

U.S. REVPAR IS expected to grow by 1.2 percent this year, down from the previously forecasted 2 percent, according to CBRE. Despite lower full-year projections, second-half growth is set to improve, with a 2 percent increase compared to 0.5 percent in the first half. CBRE's 2024 Global Midyear Hotels Outlook attributes these second-half growth projections to election-related events in the U.S., easier year-over-year comparisons, rising inbound international visitors, anticipated interest rate cuts, and a slight uptick in group and business travel. In the first half of 2024, RevPAR in 57 of the 65 U.S. markets tracked by CBRE returned to pre-pandemic levels. Most of the eight markets still lagging are in Northern California and the Upper Midwest. Major East Coast markets, including New York, Boston, Washington D.C., Atlanta and Miami, have surpassed 2019 levels.

STR AND TOURISM Economics updated their 2024-25 U.S. hotel forecast, raising projected occupancy by 0.2 percentage points and revising the previous forecast of a year-over-year decline. However, ADR gains were downgraded by 0.1 percentage points, while RevPAR remained unchanged at a 2 percent year-over-year increase. The occupancy growth projection for 2025 was also lifted by 0.2 percentage points, while ADR and RevPAR increases remained at 2 percent and 2.6 percent, respectively, STR and TE said in a joint statement. "Midscale and economy hotels are continuing to feel the effect of fewer lower-income travelers," said Amanda Hite, STR's president. "On the other hand, high-income households continue to travel, but domestic levels are constrained due to an increase in outbound travel. The stronger dollar continues to pressure international inbound demand, especially as the cost-of-living crisis continues in Europe and airlift rebuilds across Asia Pacific."

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE is expected to rebound in the fourth quarter and continue into 2025 despite subdued summer demand and a sluggish third quarter, according to CBRE. RevPAR growth for 2024 is now projected at 0.5 percent, down from 1.2 percent in August, due to a 40 bps drop in expected occupancy. Occupancy is forecast to decline 30 bps year-over-year while ADR is projected to rise 0.7 percent, 40 bps below earlier forecasts, the report said. RevPAR growth is expected to rebound in the four quarter of 2024, driven by rate cuts, easing inflation and stock market gains. "U.S. hotels performance was softer-than-expected during the summer months, partly due to Americans traveling overseas in record numbers," said Rachael Rothman, CBRE's head of hotel research and data analytics. "At the same time, the slow recovery in inbound international travel has created an imbalance in U.S. leisure demand. Despite this, continued improvements in group and business travel served as relative bright spots in the third quarter."

STR AND TOURISM Economics made significant downward adjustments to the 2024-25 U.S. hotel forecast, reflecting lower-than-expected performance and reduced growth projections for the remainder of the year. Projected gains in ADR and RevPAR were downgraded by 1 and 2.1 percentage points, respectively. Occupancy is also expected to decline, contrasting with the previous forecast's projection of year-over-year growth in this metric. While an occupancy growth projection was maintained for 2025, ADR and RevPAR were adjusted downward by 0.8 and 0.9 percentage points, respectively, STR and TE said in a joint statement. "We have seen a bifurcation in hotel performance over the first four months of the year, which we don't believe will abate soon," said Amanda Hite, STR's president. "The increased cost of living is affecting lower-to-middle income households and their ability to travel, thus lessening demand for hotels in the lower price tier. The upscale through luxury tier is seeing healthy demand, but pricing power has waned given changes in mix and travel patterns and to a lesser extent, economic conditions. Travel remains a priority for most Americans, but the volume has lessened as prices on goods and services continue to rise."