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isaac Mao

Prophesy of economic collapse 'coming true' - environment - 17 November 2008 - New Scie... - 0 views

  • In 1972, the seminal book Limits to Growth by a group called the Club of Rome claimed that exponential growth would eventually lead to economic and environmental collapse.
  • Yet Turner reckons his report [pdf format] shows that a sustainable economy is attainable. "We wouldn't have to go back to the caves," he says.
Roger Chen

Is Web 2.0 Living on Thin Air? - Tom Davenport - 0 views

  • Did you wonder whether our economy had grown a little overly precious? How can we really be producing value if we're all sitting around blogging and Facebook-friending each other?
  • 1999 the British think-tanker Charles Leadbeater published the book Living on Thin Air. It was both an appealing notion and a scary one: that we no longer have to produce anything but ideas. And that was even before Web 2.0--a platform for everyone to share their ideas, opinions, favorite tunes, and relationship statuses with each other. It was all a lot of fun, but I occasionally wondered whether it was really good for economic productivity.
  • it wouldn't be a bad outcome if the current crisis led to a more diligent, industrious economic climate. Chatting and socializing are important things, but they're not the only things.
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  • But it seems to me that many of the activities, business models, and assumptions behind social media are a bit fluffy, and that fluffiness is going to be difficult to maintain in the post-bubble environment we now find ourselves in.
  • Socializing as a distraction has always existed. Though there are more ways to do this now, people still have the ability to recognize that which produces real value in their life, both economically and socially. Balance between these has always been a challenge.
  • A few years from now, only the successful, profitable, and useful will survive.
isaac Mao

Internet Helps Liberate, Create Music in China : NPR Music - 0 views

shared by isaac Mao on 26 Jun 08 - Cached
  • When America was rocking to the Beatles and Jimi Hendrix, the airwaves in China were dominated by songs with lyrics from Chairman Mao's Little Red Book.
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    Internet Helps Liberate, Create Music in China By Laura Sydell Listen Now [7 min 48 sec] add to playlist Chinese electronic musician B6 B6, a Shanghai-based electronic musician, explored Western music first on pirated CDs and then at music-sharing sites on the Web. Now he collaborates online with other performers. B6's studio equipment -- a jumble of keyboards, etc. Enlarge B6 works out of a home studio in a Shanghai high-rise. Above, some of his musical arsenal. Discover China's Indie Music Neocha Web site image Neocha.com With Sean Leow, B6 co-founded the music-sharing site Neocha.com, an ad-supported service that lets listeners discover music and pays musicians a share of advertising revenue. * Neocha.com * Neocha's "Next" Player Morning Edition, June 25, 2008 - Second in a three-part series. When America was rocking to the Beatles and Jimi Hendrix, the airwaves in China were dominated by songs with lyrics from Chairman Mao's Little Red Book. It's more open today, but the Communist government still bans anything that mentions sex or violence, or that has "low class humor" - which bans an awful lot of American music. So the music most likely to come pouring out of the radio in China is syrupy ballads usually produced in Hong Kong or Taiwan. But Chinese musicians and fans are finding a whole new universe of sound on the Internet. And it's helping to create and nourish a new generation of independent artists in China. From Black-Market Discs to Napster and Beyond One of them is B6, a 27-year-old electronic musician. He lives and works on the first floor of a high-rise on the outskirts of Shanghai. He's part of China's burgeoning electronic-music scene. Growing up, the CDs B6 listened to were mostly sold on the black market. "When I was in high school, I used to listen to rock 'n' roll music," he says. "At that time, it was very difficult to get foreign or Western music." And then, in 1999, the Internet came to China - and B6 and his fr
evawoo

RGE - Adapting to the state's growing role in global equity markets - 0 views

  • Central bank purchases of traditional reserve assets still dwarf sovereign wealth fund purchases of riskier assets -- as well as central bank purchases of equities. But over time, it is reasonable to expect that many over-reserved sovereigns will diversify their portfolios. The recent decision to increase the share of the CIC's initial $205-210 billion in capital that it can invest abroad and SAFE's increased willingness to purchase equities as well as bonds are examples.
  • A far more challenging issue is how the huge increase in financial assets managed by potentially non-economic agents will affect the efficiency of the global capital market and the allocation of risk and resources. ….
  • And then there is China. China enormous foreign asset growth in the first quarter implies that it might be able to add more to its reserves and sovereign fund in 2008 than all the oil-exporters combined even if oil stays at its current levels.
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  • China consequently has an enormous latent capacity to alter the composition of global capital flows by changing the composition of its portfolio:
  • The offsetting risk is that state owners of assets will in some sense abuse their ownership rights, and use their rights to promote “state” objectives.
  • Qatar’s advertising in Forbes says as much: the QIA's evaluation criteria include “added value to the State of Qatar" such as "economic synergies or benefits for Qatar and its people."  Mubadala has made a string of investments (Ferrari, the “National”) designed to elevate the profile of Abu Dhabi.
  • China’s fund, like Singapore’s fund, reports directly to the top levels of China’s state. It has yet to build up enough of a track record to show how it will be used. However, China’s management of its state stakes in domestic industries suggests the need for some caution. One example: Three of China's four large state commercial banks have been listed, but they still aren’t managed in a fully commercial manner.
  • The Peterson Institute’s Ted Truman recently updated his “sovereign wealth fund scorecard.” His impressive and detailed work is worth reading carefully. Truman’s latest scorecard illustrates how the practices of many large existing sovereign funds – particularly those originating in non-democratic countries – differ from the practices of US state pension funds as well as Norway's government fund.
  • Kjaer’s framing implicitly raises a third issue, one that I don’t think has gotten enough attention. The surge in sovereign investment in safe government bonds that accompanied the surge in global reserve growth likely contributed to a “bond market bubble” – one that pushed down the real yields on government bonds in both the US. That contributed to a host of additional market distortions, as private investors scrambled to find higher returns.
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    中国外储投资对于世界资本市场的终极影响
evawoo

RGE - Ut-oh! Is China starting to blame the US for its currency losses? - 0 views

  • It is commonly argued that growing economic ties tend to create common interests that will reduce tension between nations (see FT's Alphaville). The enormous amount China has lent to the US -- a total that the US data (which tends to underestimate Chinese holdings) now puts above $1 trillion -- will, according to this view, prevent other sources of conflict from getting out of hand. Alas, relations between creditors and debtors are rarely quite so free of tension. Creditors want to get paid back in full. Debtors would rather pay back at little as possible. Mei Xinyu, a senior researcher under the Chinese commerce ministry writing in a personal capacity for the Shanghai Daily, argues that China needs to put pressure on the US at the Strategic Economic Dialogue to do more defend the dollar. With the dollar at 1.60 against the euro, it isn't hard to see why. Mei goes on to argue that if the US doesn't do more to defend the dollar, it is effectively defaulting on China.
  • Mei's complaint, in other words, should be directed in part at China's own policy makers. When they bought long-term US dollar-denominated debt they took the risk that the dollar would depreciate over time. They effectively gave the US the option to pay China back in depreciated dollars. What's more, they didn't charge a premium for the option. That was China's own choice. China wanted to keep the RMB down even if that meant over-paying for US assets.
  • China, for complicated reasons, has decided to lend to the US in US dollars and to lend to Europe in euros and pounds. China's European lending - incidentally -- could prove to be as risky as lending to the US in dollars; SAFE and the CIC are really over paying for euros.
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    中美经济关系的精辟分析
arden dzx

Message on the Twentieth Anniversary of Tiananmen Square - 0 views

  • Message on the Twentieth Anniversary of Tiananmen SquareHillary Rodham Clinton Secretary of State Washington, DC June 3, 2009On this the 20th anniversary of the violent suppression of demonstrations in Tiananmen Square by Chinese authorities, we should remember the tragic loss of hundreds of innocent lives and reflect upon the meaning of the events that preceded that day. Hundreds of thousands of protesters took to the streets for weeks, in Beijing and around the country, first to honor the late reformist leader Hu Yaobang and then to demand basic rights denied to them.A China that has made enormous progress economically, and that is emerging to take its rightful place in global leadership, should examine openly the darker events of its past and provide a public accounting of those killed, detained or missing, both to learn and to heal. This anniversary provides an opportunity for Chinese authorities to release from prison all those still serving sentences in connection with the events surrounding June 4, 1989. We urge China to cease the harassment of participants in the demonstrations and begin dialogue with the family members of victims, including the Tiananmen Mothers. China can honor the memory of that day by moving to give the rule of law, protection of internationally-recognized human rights, and democratic development the same priority as it has given to economic reform.
Andre Li Pan

西方霸权即将终结 - FT中文网 - FTChinese.com - 0 views

  • 如果说侵蚀全球金融系统的问题抵押证券和不透明的信用互换带有美国制造的标记,那么欧洲银行就是热情的购买者。因此我们应该用西方世界的耻辱来代替美国的耻辱。
feng37

Wife of Chinese dissident claims confined during Clinton visit - CNN.com - 0 views

  • human rights "can't interfere with the global economic crisis, the global climate crisis and the security crises," Clinton said.
Andre Li Pan

全球央行联手救市 - FT中文网 - FTChinese.com - 0 views

  • 包括美联储(Fed)和欧洲央行(ECB)在内的全球六大央行昨日宣布,同时紧急减息半个百分点,这项举措史无前例。
  • 美联储将利率从2%降至1.5%,最近才提高了利率的欧洲央行,则将基准利率从4.25%下调至3.75%。欧洲央行还公布,调整向银行提供资金的方式,保证在官方利率下,银行贷款数额不受限制。 英国央行(BoE)将基准利率从5%下调至4.5%,瑞士央行(Swiss National Bank)将利率从3%减至2.5%。瑞典央行(Riksbank)则从4.75%调至4.25%。
  • 同时,除本次共同减息外,中国将一年期存贷款利率各下调了27个基点。日本央行对本次举措“表示欢迎”,但没有采取任何行动。
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  • 尽管如此,市场对这一系列空前举措反应冷淡。纽约午盘前,标准普尔500指数(Standard & Poor's 500 Index)下跌1.26%。
feng37

John Kamm - Blinded By the Firewall - washingtonpost.com - 0 views

  • The fact that the Chinese people think the world loves China helps explain why it is so difficult to persuade Beijing to address human rights and other issues. The Chinese people, after all, see no need for changes to improve the country's image. In contrast, polls have shown that Americans are aware that the United States' image overseas has been badly damaged in recent years, and there is widespread agreement that work must be done to improve that image. In China, the Communist Party controls most of the information to which people have access, and that information does not include material showing how unpopular the country has become.
  • The people in developed countries who think it was a mistake to award the Olympics to Beijing (43 percent of Americans, vs. 41 percent who told Pew it was the correct decision) are less likely to watch.
  • Three in four Chinese think the world likes China, while only one in 10 thinks foreigners don't like the country. More than 80 percent believe China takes other countries' interests into account when formulating foreign policy. Just 3 percent think China's economic growth has a negative effect on other countries. Only 1 percent knew a lot about the recall of Chinese products for quality and safety reasons. if ( show_doubleclick_ad && ( adTemplate & INLINE_ARTICLE_AD ) == INLINE_ARTICLE_AD && inlineAdGraf ) { placeAd('ARTICLE',commercialNode,20,'inline=y;',true) ; } Pew's Global Attitudes Survey of public opinion in 24 countries, released in June, makes clear that international opinion toward China is very different from what people in China think it is.
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    The fact that the Chinese people think the world loves China helps explain why it is so difficult to persuade Beijing to address human rights and other issues. The Chinese people, after all, see no need for changes to improve the country's image. In contrast, polls have shown that Americans are aware that the United States' image overseas has been badly damaged in recent years, and there is widespread agreement that work must be done to improve that image. In China, the Communist Party controls most of the information to which people have access, and that information does not include material showing how unpopular the country has become.
Andre Li Pan

中国宏观政策转向 - FT中文网 - FTChinese.com - 0 views

  • 昨天中国国家统计局公布,70个大中城市房屋售价同比涨幅5.3%,为18个月以来最低值。国内房地产市场拐点出现,个别城市甚至出现退房风波,住房开发贷款和抵押贷款可能成为银行新的不良资产来源。随着房地产新开工面积的下降,钢铁、水泥、建筑等行业在成本上升的基础上,面临着需求进一步恶化的风险。
feng37

Z Visa Update: The Bigger Picture | All Roads Lead To China - 0 views

  • A new piece of information that I have to add at what I have already seen at the other sites, that no one else has covered, is that I recently was sitting in a clients office when their HR person gave us some bad news Anyone born after 1983 can no longer get a Z visa. What struck me about this was that if true this would represent the first real change in policy. After all, working on an F visa was always outside the rules, and even extending a Z visa to rep office employees was a poorly enforced rule… but but restricting Z visas to those older than 25… THAT IS NEW Surely, if true, we are going to see a bunc of China bashing, but where I would like to frame this is that when there were economic downturns in Asia circa 1997 and the US circa 2000, there was almost an immediate visa restriction that came along with it. Leadership looked to save jobs for citizens, and those firms who wanted to import labor had to jump a lot of hurdles to prove that doing so was a last report… .that they could not find someone locally.
arden dzx

A Reflection of Power | Newsweek International | Newsweek.com - 0 views

shared by arden dzx on 03 Jul 08 - Cached
  • When you moved into Taiwan's media market, some people saw it as a vote of no confidence against Hong Kong.You're suggesting it was an insurance policy? That was the intention. I couldn't go to the United States and say: "Can you protect me?" Nobody would care. But I knew Beijing was thinking very much about Taiwan, and that they don't want bad press there. So we built the Taiwan business as leverage. If they do anything to us, our Taiwanese readers will know what happened. And Beijing knows that [should they move against us] we will do everything we can to make them pay on Taiwan.
  • Some experts argue that China does not intend to Westernize or liberalize, but only to modernize. Do you think people in China understand what democracy is and want it?Not at this moment. But anyone who would differentiate between Westernization and modernization is just talking rubbish. Take out the western culture and what else is modern? Nothing. The technology is Western, the trendy culture is Western, all this modernization is Westernization. China is prosperous today because it deals and interacts with the West. No, democracy isn't on normal people's radars yet. China will be open to it only when the economic cycle turns down. And when that happens, China will be in chaos. How so? In other countries, when there is a recession, you have churches, temples, charities, NGOs, civic organizations, unions and other institutions reaching out to help each other. They are shock absorbers. In China, you don't have any of this. Organizations that are not governmental are not allowed. In China, you have two pillars: the market and the government. If the market fails, the government will be dragged down because there is nothing in the middle.
  • How so? In other countries, when there is a recession, you have churches, temples, charities, NGOs, civic organizations, unions and other institutions reaching out to help each other. They are shock absorbers. In China, you don't have any of this. Organizations that are not governmental are not allowed. In China, you have two pillars: the market and the government. If the market fails, the government will be dragged down because there is nothing in the middle.
number5

Far Eastern Economic Review | Beijing Embraces Classical Fascism - 0 views

  • In all these cases, it is tempting to conclude that the regime is worried about its own survival, and, in order to rally nationalist passions, feels compelled to portray the country as a global victim.
  • The strongest evidence to support the theory of insecurity at the highest levels of Chinese society is the practice of the “princelings” (wealthy children of the ruling elites) to buy homes in places such as the United States, Canada and Australia. These are not luxury homes of the sort favored by wealthy businessman and officials from the oil-rich countries of the Middle East. Rather they are typically “normal” homes of the sort a potential émigré might want to have in reserve in case things went bad back home.
Andre Li Pan

最可怕的是不知落后 - 0 views

  • “文革”期间来华访问的外国人,有几个地方是必被安排“参观”的,哪怕不去天坛、长城,这几个地方一定要让老外看。比如,上海江南造船厂制造的万吨水压机。那时的宣传称,这台设备赶上并超过了国际先进水平。
  • 那时来中国的外国人,大多是有特殊背景的,基本都是中国政府的官方客人。接待者总要宣传这台水压机是如何“在毛泽东思想指引、在无产阶级文化大革命的鼓舞下,赶上或超过世界水平”。
  • 终于一次,一位外国客人实在忍不住了,就问解说员:你知道当今世界上,水压机的先进水平是怎样的,你有技术参数吗? 这个老外估计是搞工程技术的,他的问题一下让中国讲解员楞了,“不知道。”“不知道?那你怎么说这台一万吨的就是赶上和超过了世界先进水平啊?”后来,我们才知道,一万吨的水压机,外国在19世纪末就造出来了。
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  • 我第一次到北朝鲜。我们一帮外国学者参观完新义州后,当地政府特地安排小学生给我们表演。这应该是当地最高的艺术水平了,无论唱歌、跳舞都非常优秀,但一看孩子们穿的衣服,我就感到很悲哀。这支表演队应该是北朝鲜的面子工程了,可小演员们身上穿的却是中国贫穷地方开会时用的那种最廉价的化纤布。因为颜色不好看,透光、容易散线,在中国比较富裕的农村都不会用这玩意了。
  • 表演的压轴节目是一首歌,整个表演队伍全部上场,用朝语、英文和中文三种语言轮换着唱,题目是“全世界都羡慕我们”。我对这里的其他宣传,觉得还能忍受,但这个“全世界都羡慕我们”,却让我震撼!写歌的人肯定不是孩子,而且可能是发自内心地创作了这个东西。“全世界都羡慕我们”,这题目说明,他们认为自己是最好的,东方要学他,西方要学他;大国要学他,小国也要学他。
  • 这对于我们来说,是顶级的黑色幽默,但对那些孩子来说,则是发自内心的真诚。这是蒙昧的真诚。
  • 信息(information),观念(ideas),别人给你的启发或者灵感(inspirations),学习的样板(models,),别人给你的教训(lessons)等等,所有这些,异常关键。
  • 因此,尽可能准确和真实的信息的自由畅通,是一个后发展国家进步的基本前提条件。无此条件,其他方面的正确与错误,都无法扭转趋势。资讯是前提条件(pre-condition)。我们现在争论中国的这三十年做得好做得坏,预测下一个三十年会怎样,前提是要实事求是地总结过去三十年中,哪些做法具备可持续性。社会政策方面,政治方面,法律方面,经济方面,环境方面,做得比较好?哪些具有可持续性?
    • Andre Li Pan
       
      这一段写得太高级了,鼓掌!
  • 总结这三十年的历史,最重要的是要找到刺激中国下一步发展更为先进的想法(ideas)和启发(inspirations),以及更好的创新之源(sources of innovation)。创新源自何方?眼光要瞄准外面的世界,但这并非是百分之百的拷贝。
  • 我不赞成国内的一种流行说法,“我们国情决定了”——就好像全球只有中国才有国情一样。其实,哪一个国家没有自己的国情?不能以“国情”为借口拒绝向别人学习。中国必须要把眼光放到国际上,尽可能把握大的趋势,研判哪些政策、体制、方法、组织形态能产生可持续的好效果。这才是一种负责任的态度。
    • Andre Li Pan
       
      技术为背景的"玩"和政治目的为背景的"玩"结局就是,前者就是玩技术,后者就是玩火自焚,我们国内的技术类企业在企业高调低调之间的把握还有待学习
Andre Li Pan

"70后"提前进入中年危机? - 0 views

  • 70年代生的人,他们曾经狂热过诗歌,最早接触到了流行音乐,照理说,理想主义的成分还是很浓厚的。面对社会突变,其实也是考量一个人内心是否强大的时候。
    • Andre Li Pan
       
      看到这句话我几乎认同得掉泪,我虽然没有钢铁般的意志和硬朗的外表,但是我却一直醉心于磨练自己强大的内心,将自己的基准定位于守护家人、创造社会价值,而非仅仅是累计个人财富,这条路确实非常艰辛,并非说非凡人能达,而是大多数人无法理解~~~
Andre Li Pan

抵制家乐福行动高调启动 - 0 views

  • 在 中国, 一场突如其来的民间抵制行动,又以人们已经熟悉的渠道和方式──MSN、QQ或手机短信──高调启动,此番,是法国超市品牌“家乐福”成为选中的敌人。因为有传言称,家乐福的主要股东,有资助藏独的行为。
Andre Li Pan

斯特恩承认低估全球变暖风险 - 0 views

  • 《斯特恩报告》的作者、前世界银行首席经济学家尼古拉斯•斯特恩爵士(Lord Stern)于4月16日表示,这份关于气候变化的报告低估了全球变暖的风险,本应该对未来持更为悲观的观点。
  • 他表示,回想起来,在报告中,他本应对急剧的气候变化持更强烈的观点。如果温室气体的排放没有减少,这些变化就会发生。
  • 在报告中,他估计气候变化的成本为全球GDP的5%至20%。
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  • 去年,政府间气候变化问题小组(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)公布了最为全面的气候变化科学研究结果。
  • 该份研究预测,除非温室气体的排放稳定下来,并且在接下来的10年内有所削减,否则,在接下来的100年内,温度将会上升3摄氏度,给地球带来灾难性的结果。
  • 自那篇报告公布以来,斯特恩就遭到了经济学家以及气候变化怀疑论者的攻击。有些怀疑论者认为他的报告是危言耸听。
  • 他的报告已经构成了气候变化政策讨论的一个关键部分,包括去年12月在印尼巴厘岛举行的联合国气候变化会议。在此次会议上,各方为《京都议定书》(Kyoto protocol)后续协议拟定了一份为期两年的谈判时间表。
Andre Li Pan

全球半数基金经理认为美元将被低估 - 0 views

  • 在美元兑欧元汇率创下新低之际发表的最新调查表明,全球半数的基金经理认为美元将被低估。
  • 美林(Merrill Lynch)的月度基金经理调查结果显示,净有50%的基金经理认为美元过于疲软,高于前一个月的41%和1月份的30%。认为欧元被高估的基金经理比例更高,达到71%,高于1月份的55%。
  • 由于欧元区通胀率升至1999年单一货币推出以来的最高水平,降低了欧元区大幅降息的可能,欧元兑美元汇率在4月16日创下历史新高。
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  • 鲍尔斯表示,这导致投资者开始规避英国股市,净有31%的基金经理宣布减持英国股票,为4年来最高比例,也是有史以来第二大规模减持。
  • 鲍尔斯称。“(但是)令人吃惊的是,投资者担心英镑还会继续贬值,从而导致他们对英国股市持更加悲观的看法。”
  • 4月16日,欧元兑美元汇率升1.1%,至1.5968美元,刷新了上周创下的1.5912美元的历史高点。欧元对英镑汇率也上涨0.4%,创下0.8080英镑的历史新高。
Andre Li Pan

美林CEO质疑信贷紧缩见底的说法 - 0 views

  • 美林(Merrill Lynch)首席执行官约翰•塞恩(John Thain)拒绝支持其他华尔街掌门人的乐观论调。他们表示,信贷紧缩最严重的影响已经过去。
  • 塞恩认为,消费者刚刚开始感受到食品及能源价格上涨的影响。
  • 这是美林连续第三个季度出现亏损,其业绩不及分析师的预期。
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  • 820亿美元的流动性盈余,使美林处于有利的地位。同时,塞恩还可以通过发行优先股筹集更多的资本。
  • 美林昨日还表示,将在已宣布的裁员1000人基础上,进一步裁员3000人。
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