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dr tech

yes, all models are wrong - 0 views

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    "According to Derek & Laura Cabrera, "wicked problems result from the mismatch between how real-world systems work and how we think they work". With systems thinking, there is constant testing and feedback between the real world, in all its complexity, and our mental model of it. This openness to test and look for feedback led Dr. Fisman to change his mind on the airborne spread of the coronavirus."
dr tech

Special report: The simulations driving the world's response to COVID-19 - 0 views

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    "But, as he and other modellers warn, much information about how SARS-CoV-2 spreads is still unknown and must be estimated or assumed - and that limits the precision of forecasts. An earlier version of the Imperial model, for instance, estimated that SARS-CoV-2 would be about as severe as influenza in necessitating the hospitalization of those infected. That turned out to be incorrect."
dr tech

Science relies on computer modelling, but what happens when it goes wrong? -- Science &... - 0 views

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    Much of current science deals with even more complicated systems, and similarly lacks exact solutions. Such models have to be "computational" - describing how a system changes from one instant to the next. But there is no way to determine the exact state at some time in the future other than by "simulating" its evolution in this way. Weather forecasting is a familiar example; until the advent of computers in the 1950s, it was impossible to predict future weather faster than it actually happened.
dr tech

What 50 Years of Hurricane Data Still Hasn't Told Us - 0 views

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    "Because trends in data only become discernible with time, Masters believes it will be five or 10 years before we have a firm handle on what's going on."
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