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Contents contributed and discussions participated by Frank Gallagher

Frank Gallagher

Judiciary to Monitor Iran Elections - 0 views

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    Pour Mohammedi used to be an Ahmadinejad ally, now he's one of the President's biggest critics.
Frank Gallagher

Beyond Reformism - Activists take advantage of the election - 0 views

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    Iranian Liberal Democrats form a wide coalition to push for liberalisation. They believe that the upcoming election will prevent a wide-scale crackdown.
Frank Gallagher

Only 28 percent of MP's Support Ahmadinejad - roozonline.com - 0 views

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    Larijani gets full support of MPs present, Ahmadejad can only manage 80. Principalists talking about backing Musavi.
Frank Gallagher

Shahrudi Publically Backs Ahmadinejad - 0 views

  • During a campaign gathering in Tehran, the hardline head of Iran's judiciary, Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi, threw his support to Mr. Ahmadinejad, as well.
  • Karroubi has gained some notoriety among the four candidates for proposing a novel economic plan which would grant shares in Iran's oil wealth to all Iranian citizens.
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    Generally thought to be no fan of the President... considers him to be too extreme and is irritated by his unorthodox religious views.
Frank Gallagher

Stagnant rural incomes « Tyranny of numbers - 0 views

  • The gap between rural and urban incomes has been widening because the rural areas appear to have missed the recent boom or President Ahmadinejad’s redistribution.
  • Some of the gap is spurious because of the lower cost of living in rural areas (mainly housing), but the change is probably not.  
  • The rural-urban gap has been one of the main drivers of changes in inequality, especially in the last four years (more on this in a future post).     The gap narrowed under Mr. Moussavi’s watch, and widened during the Rafsanjani and Khatami’s administrations.  In the last three years of President Khatami’s government rural expenditures were rising faster than urban expenditures and the gap closed somewhat.  
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  • We know most of Iran suffered a severed drought in the last few years, which could have hurt agricultural output.
  • ising oil income, which led to more imports that depressed not only agricultural prices but all tradable goods prices.  
  • lack of increase in productivity in agriculture.
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    Why are rural incomes in Iran stagnant under Ahmadinejad?
Frank Gallagher

Ayandeh News Poll puts Musavi ahead - 0 views

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    Shock bloody horror. And of course, IRIB put Ahmadinejad on track for a 1st round victory.
Frank Gallagher

Iran: Factional dispute over unity and coalition schemes - 0 views

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    Nate-Nuri pushed for wide coalition, but Khamenei is not interested. Rezai pushing for pan-conservative coalition.
Frank Gallagher

Khamenei's backing for ahmaninejad - 0 views

  • He said, "I know the country's condition is better than all these gentlemen.  I know much of what they say about the condition of the country and economy is contrary to reality.  They are mistaken."
  • Mousavi also criticized the imbalanced competition ahead of the election, noting, "These elections are held under peculiar circumstances.  Thirty provincial and six national television channels cover the president's provincial visits, which are used for campaigning purposes. 
  • Last September, as the Ahmadinejad presidency entered its last year, Khamenei told Ahmadinejad and members of his cabinet, "Work as if you plan to work for another five years; imagine that this one year plus four more years are under your management.  Look at things, work, plan and act as if that is the case."
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    Good quotes... note on TV support and provincial trips
Frank Gallagher

Zahra Rahnavard speaks out on the need for women cabinet ministers - 0 views

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    Interesting that she's making political statements... not just being brought out as 'supportive wife'.
Frank Gallagher

Document - Iran: Ensure free presidential election | Amnesty International - 0 views

  • . In December 2008, the Office of the Tehran Public Prosecutor announced the formation of a “special office to review Internet- and SMS-related crimes and violations”, stating that the office would review election campaign violations and “offensive remarks”made by SMS. These measures may in part be intended to stifle debate, prevent the organization of peaceful demonstrations, and to silence critics of the authorities in advance of the election.
  • The arrest on 19 April 2009 by officers of the Revolutionary Court in Tehran of Mehdi Mo’tamedi Mehr, a member of the Committee to Defend Free, Healthy and Fair Elections and a member of the Freedom Movement, a banned political party. Prior to his arrest he had been telephoned by a Ministry of Intelligence official and told that publication of a statement entitled “Civil Society Institution as Election Observers: An Assurance toward Free, Healthy and Fair Elections” by the Committee would be an act against national security. The statement was published anyway, and he was arrested. He has been accused of “acting against state security”. On 29 April, security forces prevented other members of the committee from holding a meeting in the “Raad” Legal Institute which belongs to Mohammad Ali Dadkhah, a prominent lawyer and member of the High Oversight Council of the Centre for Human Rights Defenders (CHRD). The CHRD was forcibly closed in December 2008 and has not been allowed to reopen.
  • At least three Amir Kabir University students who remain detained without trial in Section 209 of Evin Prison in Tehran following their arrests in February 2009. O
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  • Over 100 people arrested in Tehran and Sanandaj in the run-up to, during, and after peaceful gatherings planned to celebrate May Day 2009. Although some have been released, dozens are believed to remain in detention,
  • Sajad Khaksari, a reporter for the weekly Qalam-e Moalem (Teacher’s Pen) and the son of Mohamad Khaksari and Soraya Darabi, both leaders of the Iran Teachers Trade Association (ITTA), was arrested on 26 April 2009 in front of the Ministry of Education. He was covering protests by teachers
Frank Gallagher

Meaningful Opinion Polls - roozonline.com - 0 views

  • These particular opinion polls are fabrications published by supporters of the administration, aimed at assuring a presidential victory for president Ahmadinejad.
  • And to the question of whom would they actually vote for, 53.6 percent ticked Ahmadinejad, 21 percent Mousavi, 3.8 percent Karoubi and 1.7 percent Rezaei. Alef is managed by Ahmad Tavakoli, attributes the source of this poll to be professional centers in the country adding that it is confidential and not publishable.”
  • IRNA, the official news agency of the government under the control of Ahmadinejad and Saffar Herandi, which read as follows:
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  • But the more dangerous possibility is that the sources of these polls are really intending to manipulate the actual election results and are thus preparing the groundwork for their final announcement of a “victory.”
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    Loyalist polls suggest 1st round victory for Ahmadinejad. - Preparing the ground to declare victory? - Trying to put conservatives off supporting Rezai?
Frank Gallagher

Karrubi, the Election, and Facebook - 0 views

  • An interesting thing is that Mehdi Karroubi is not alone in his campaign photo (see above). He is pictured with the former mayor of Tehran, Gholamhossein Karbasschi's in the circle just behind him. Perhaps the “change” slogan is not the only thing that Karroubi borrowed from the U.S. election. Has he created himself an unofficial running mate?
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    Karrubi's facebook page has just 300 fans, most loggers supporting Musavi - so far so dull. More interesting... Karbaschi's face appears in the background of promotional materials. Given how much Karrubi is trying to model his campaign on Barrack Obama's, this is being interpreted as the additon of a 'running mate'. I dont think it's as new as is being suggested here though. As I recall, Musavi's image appeared behind Khatami's in 1997...
Frank Gallagher

Karrubi hits Basij and Guardians Council - 0 views

  • Karroubi who has faulted the Secretary of Iran's Guardian Council Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati for canvassing support for President Ahmadinejad, urged the council to comply by its supervisory obligations.
  • criticized the recent statements of the IRGC Chief-Commander, Major General Mohammad-Ali Jafari about the division of Basij into two segments -- military and non-military -- the second which has reportedly been allowed to be involved in political activities.
Frank Gallagher

Khamanei, teh Reformists, and International Election Monitors - 0 views

  • The harsh responses and treatment that intelligence and judiciary officials of the Islamic ‎Republic of Iran have embarked against a group of political and social activists who have ‎been promoting the idea of international monitoring of Iran’s forthcoming presidential ‎elections on June 12, 2009, indicate that they view this issue to be a red line not to be ‎crossed, and if done would not be tolerated. ‎
  • intelligence-judiciary agents to prevent a regular meeting of ‎the members of the Committee for Free, Healthy, and Fair Elections
  • ayatollah Khamenei, the leader of Iran, has directly engaged ‎himself in the issue by barring, through harsh and threatening language, presidential ‎candidates and their supporters from questioning the integrity of the elections.
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  • They do differ in their views on international monitors, ‎with Mir-Hossein Mousavi remaining silent on the subject, while Mehdi Karoubi has ‎openly welcomed the idea justifying it to help the country, and ensure a healthy election.‎
Frank Gallagher

Iran: Ahmadinejad Takes a Political Beating, but Retains Front-Runner Role - 0 views

  • n early March when parliament, in an unprecedented move in the Islamic Republic’s 30-year history, rebuffed the president’s move to lift state subsidies on essential items, including electricity and bread, and offset the higher prices with straight cash handouts to needy citizens.
  • When the president insisted on an "all-or-nothing" version of his subsidy plan, parliament had little choice but to reject the project, although the legislature did end up passing a $279 billion preliminary budget.
  • out-of-control spending has blown a gaping hole in the budget so that the country will face an estimated budget deficit of $46 billion.
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  • Orumieh, the capital of West Azerbaijan Province, and the place where he once served as governor. Several people flung shoes at his motorcade in an evident display of anger over his economic bungling. Ahmadinejad then cut short his appearance when he was vociferously booed while attempting to address local residents. Since then, the president has not made another trip into Iran’s provinces. And according to knowledgeable sources in Tehran, media outlets have been threatened with punishment if they report on the Orumieh embarrassment.
  • Larijani on March 25 occupied the hardliner high ground from Ahmadinejad by coming out forcefully against US President Barack Obama’s recent olive branch address, made in connection with the Iranian new year on March 21.
  • onservative opponents have also made moves to outflank him in the theological sphere by courting the support of one of Shi’a Islam’s most influential clerics, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani of Iraq. Larijani met with Ayatollah Sistani in the holy city of Najaf, Iraq, on March 25.
  • Earlier in March, another bitter rival of Ahmadinejad, Ayatollah Ali Hashemi Rafsanjani, met with Ayatollah Sistani and other top Iraqi Shi’a clerics.
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    Eurasia Net on a tough March for Ahmadinejad
Frank Gallagher

The Daily Star - Politics - Khamenei publicly rebukes Ahmadinejad over removal of senio... - 0 views

  • Political analyst Saeed Leilaz called the rebuke "unprecedented" and said it "clearly means that Khamenei doesn't insist that Ahmadinejad deserves to remain as president. That's the message."
  • Leilaz said Rezaei would have never entered the race without consultation with Khamenei first. His candidacy is "another indication that Khamenei is keeping his options open to deal with a president different from Ahmadinejad," he said. Notably, the largest conservative political faction, Jame-e-Rouhaniat-e-Mobarez, has not endorsed Ahmadinejad in the elections, saying it would have no preferred choice.
  • "Regarding the replacement in the Hajj and Pilgrimage Organization, the president was strongly notified that the annexation of this organization to the tourism committee is not appropriate," the government daily Iran quoted Khamenei as saying. He ordered that the "situation remain as it was before."
Frank Gallagher

Reza'i Lays Out his Campaign - 0 views

  • Speaking to an audience of elite young people at a conference organized by the Pro-Reza’i People Foundation, he said: “I have several slogans, one of which is ‘vitality, tranquility and stability for progress’.”
  • “If our statesmen act with humility and altruism, put sincerity first, and do not compete for power, morality will be strengthened in the country.”
  • But our major problem is that while we have had managers who have acted as models the political, defense, and security sectors, ... the managers of culture and the economy have not yet been able to train our heroic youth.”
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  • hejab
  • We must preserve this ethic, but it must be in the hearts of our women; because if we force it on [them], it may turn into a societal battle.”
  • “There is freedom even now, [but]…there are some who want to negate it, and these people must be stopped; there are [others] who exploit freedoms, and they too must be stopped.” He named “people who insult religion” as part of the latter group.
  • “My main rival is poverty, unemployment and high prices in the country.”
  • Davoud Daneshja’fari, who last year resigned as President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s finance minister, has been appointed to head the Reza’i election campaign headquarters.
Frank Gallagher

Electoral Analysis from Copenhagen University - 0 views

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    Interesting statistics, and reasonable analysis of the discourses of reform, principalism etc.
Frank Gallagher

Yasin on the Election - 0 views

  • As of this writing, there are at least half a dozen campaign headquarters that are currently semi-active or not active at all but are all awaiting the go-ahead from their would-be conservative candidates. Amongst them are those of the current mayor of Tehran, one that belongs to a former foreign minister, one belonging to a current cabinet minister, one to a recently fired minister and one to the former head of the Revolutionary Guards, Mohsen Rezaii. 
  • who has been one of the most trenchant critics of Ahmadinejad government from the right flank. A few months ago, he put forth the idea of an inclusive coalition government, one that would encompass many of the moderates and a few of the radicals. The
  • , that Ahmadinejad's re-election is a foregone conclusion
    • Frank Gallagher
       
      Is it really that bad?
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  • He led Iranian forces against Saddam's armies during the 8-year war and is currently the secretary of the influential Expedience Council. 
  • n a straight conservative-reformist contest between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi, Ahmadinejad is expected to win between 13 to 17 million votes against 9 to 12 million for Mousavi, assuming that the second reformist candidate leaves the race.
    • Frank Gallagher
       
      Where does this data come from?
  • many Rightist leaders - particularly in the Revolutionary Guards and its paramilitary affiliate, the Basij - have on numerous occasions warned that they would under no circumstances tolerate such a scenario, i.e., even if Mousavi technically wins the election in the first round, he would never be allowed to actually win the presidential seat. 
  • Of the 17 million votes cast, roughly 7 million came from the traditional bloc of conservative voters who unfailingly vote for Rightist candidates. The rest, which was quite a novel development for Iran, came from the economic grievances of the lower classes who were under the impression that Ahmadinejad was a champion of the poor or an anti-corruption crusader.  
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    Cant agree with his prognosis... there's no guarantee that anyone beyond the 7m 'bankers' will vote for Ahmadinejad.
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