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Frank Gallagher

Khamanei, teh Reformists, and International Election Monitors - 0 views

  • The harsh responses and treatment that intelligence and judiciary officials of the Islamic ‎Republic of Iran have embarked against a group of political and social activists who have ‎been promoting the idea of international monitoring of Iran’s forthcoming presidential ‎elections on June 12, 2009, indicate that they view this issue to be a red line not to be ‎crossed, and if done would not be tolerated. ‎
  • intelligence-judiciary agents to prevent a regular meeting of ‎the members of the Committee for Free, Healthy, and Fair Elections
  • ayatollah Khamenei, the leader of Iran, has directly engaged ‎himself in the issue by barring, through harsh and threatening language, presidential ‎candidates and their supporters from questioning the integrity of the elections.
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  • They do differ in their views on international monitors, ‎with Mir-Hossein Mousavi remaining silent on the subject, while Mehdi Karoubi has ‎openly welcomed the idea justifying it to help the country, and ensure a healthy election.‎
Frank Gallagher

Iran: Ahmadinejad Takes a Political Beating, but Retains Front-Runner Role - 0 views

  • n early March when parliament, in an unprecedented move in the Islamic Republic’s 30-year history, rebuffed the president’s move to lift state subsidies on essential items, including electricity and bread, and offset the higher prices with straight cash handouts to needy citizens.
  • When the president insisted on an "all-or-nothing" version of his subsidy plan, parliament had little choice but to reject the project, although the legislature did end up passing a $279 billion preliminary budget.
  • out-of-control spending has blown a gaping hole in the budget so that the country will face an estimated budget deficit of $46 billion.
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  • onservative opponents have also made moves to outflank him in the theological sphere by courting the support of one of Shi’a Islam’s most influential clerics, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani of Iraq. Larijani met with Ayatollah Sistani in the holy city of Najaf, Iraq, on March 25.
  • Larijani on March 25 occupied the hardliner high ground from Ahmadinejad by coming out forcefully against US President Barack Obama’s recent olive branch address, made in connection with the Iranian new year on March 21.
  • Orumieh, the capital of West Azerbaijan Province, and the place where he once served as governor. Several people flung shoes at his motorcade in an evident display of anger over his economic bungling. Ahmadinejad then cut short his appearance when he was vociferously booed while attempting to address local residents. Since then, the president has not made another trip into Iran’s provinces. And according to knowledgeable sources in Tehran, media outlets have been threatened with punishment if they report on the Orumieh embarrassment.
  • Earlier in March, another bitter rival of Ahmadinejad, Ayatollah Ali Hashemi Rafsanjani, met with Ayatollah Sistani and other top Iraqi Shi’a clerics.
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    Eurasia Net on a tough March for Ahmadinejad
Frank Gallagher

Reza'i Lays Out his Campaign - 0 views

  • Speaking to an audience of elite young people at a conference organized by the Pro-Reza’i People Foundation, he said: “I have several slogans, one of which is ‘vitality, tranquility and stability for progress’.”
  • “If our statesmen act with humility and altruism, put sincerity first, and do not compete for power, morality will be strengthened in the country.”
  • But our major problem is that while we have had managers who have acted as models the political, defense, and security sectors, ... the managers of culture and the economy have not yet been able to train our heroic youth.”
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  • hejab
  • We must preserve this ethic, but it must be in the hearts of our women; because if we force it on [them], it may turn into a societal battle.”
  • “There is freedom even now, [but]…there are some who want to negate it, and these people must be stopped; there are [others] who exploit freedoms, and they too must be stopped.” He named “people who insult religion” as part of the latter group.
  • “My main rival is poverty, unemployment and high prices in the country.”
  • Davoud Daneshja’fari, who last year resigned as President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s finance minister, has been appointed to head the Reza’i election campaign headquarters.
Frank Gallagher

Yasin on the Election - 0 views

  • As of this writing, there are at least half a dozen campaign headquarters that are currently semi-active or not active at all but are all awaiting the go-ahead from their would-be conservative candidates. Amongst them are those of the current mayor of Tehran, one that belongs to a former foreign minister, one belonging to a current cabinet minister, one to a recently fired minister and one to the former head of the Revolutionary Guards, Mohsen Rezaii. 
  • who has been one of the most trenchant critics of Ahmadinejad government from the right flank. A few months ago, he put forth the idea of an inclusive coalition government, one that would encompass many of the moderates and a few of the radicals. The
  • , that Ahmadinejad's re-election is a foregone conclusion
    • Frank Gallagher
       
      Is it really that bad?
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  • He led Iranian forces against Saddam's armies during the 8-year war and is currently the secretary of the influential Expedience Council. 
  • n a straight conservative-reformist contest between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi, Ahmadinejad is expected to win between 13 to 17 million votes against 9 to 12 million for Mousavi, assuming that the second reformist candidate leaves the race.
    • Frank Gallagher
       
      Where does this data come from?
  • many Rightist leaders - particularly in the Revolutionary Guards and its paramilitary affiliate, the Basij - have on numerous occasions warned that they would under no circumstances tolerate such a scenario, i.e., even if Mousavi technically wins the election in the first round, he would never be allowed to actually win the presidential seat. 
  • Of the 17 million votes cast, roughly 7 million came from the traditional bloc of conservative voters who unfailingly vote for Rightist candidates. The rest, which was quite a novel development for Iran, came from the economic grievances of the lower classes who were under the impression that Ahmadinejad was a champion of the poor or an anti-corruption crusader.  
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    Cant agree with his prognosis... there's no guarantee that anyone beyond the 7m 'bankers' will vote for Ahmadinejad.
Frank Gallagher

Qalibaf Interview - FT - 0 views

  • we have not put any development project on hold. We decide on a project and push for its completion.
    • Frank Gallagher
       
      Comparison to Rafa's construction jihad?
  • Shora-Yaari, or assisting councils.
  • We have divided Tehran into 380 neighbourhoods with defined geography. People have elected their representatives to these councils to take over some development work. The work might be small-scale but is important. This helps people take part [in the city’s development] from their doorstep.
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  • A series of medium-scale projects have been carried out by the municipality’s representative offices in [22] zones. The third level is for big projects which are done at national level, like Milad Tower, construction of highways, giant junctions and cultural centres like Azadi Cinema [the original building was burnt down in 1997] over 10,000 square metres of land. Rebuilding the cinema will take less than 18 months and we are going to hold the Fajr Film Festival this year there in co-ordination with the culture ministry.
  • in Artists House
    • Frank Gallagher
       
      WTF! Neocons in Artists House?! Surely a set piece?
  • A: The government owes money to us on two fronts. The government like other people has to pay taxes for its buildings, like ministries, because they are inflicting costs on the city. The government doesn’t meet this part. The government owes us 500bn tomans in this respect, which in some cases go back to five or seven years ago. Unfortunately, the debts are going up.
    • Frank Gallagher
       
      Du to clash with Ahmadinejad?
  • This agreement was made when Mr [Morteza] Haji was the minister of education [in the previous reformist government].
    • Frank Gallagher
       
      Explicitly points out cooperation with reformist predecessor
  • As a matter of principle, I don’t believe in populism and fooling the masses. If you look into my background, you don’t find such moves. Wherever I’ve worked, it has been completely principled, logical, scientific and systematic.
  • It is an invaluable experience at the age of 19 and 20 to be in charge of 15,000 people during [Iran-Iraq] war [1980-1988]. This happens to few people.
  • I said my first plan was to go to war front to die but I didn’t die.
    • Frank Gallagher
       
      Nod to Basiji martytdom
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    Excellent detail on his management of the city. Drops a lot of soundbites, positioning himself as a pragmatic technocrat but also a loyal follower of the revolution. Slick.
Frank Gallagher

538 - Statistical Analysis of the Election - 0 views

  • please compare the _absolute_ numbers in a graphfor example, AZARBAYJAN:2004-reform/centrist: 950,0002004-conservative: 350,0002009-reform/centrist: 837,0002009-conservative: 1,131,000so reform/centrist decreased by 10% and conservative trippled!? even as people get younger, economy worse, and achmadenijad more unpopular?
    • Frank Gallagher
       
      In My Humble Opinion... This is a more important point than Mousavi being an Azeri. Azeris do not (by my understanding) vote on as dependably ethnic lines as people in Lorestan. They do however, dependably vote reformist. The numbers highlighted here show a huge and very unlikely swing not from one ethnicity to another, but from one political ideology to another. Fraud.
  • city-level returns posted by the Iranian Interior Ministry on their website? These were posted by "Pejman" and translated by "Shaahin" in the comments thread to your previous post: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/06/statistical-evidence-does-not-prove.html#comment-672782692382259870
  • Just from a cursory glance, you can see the official poll results don't make any sense. Look at one of the third party candidates, Karoubi. He is from Lorestan. in 2005, in the first round he took 55% of the vote in Lorestan. In these results, he takes only 5%.Extraordinarily unlikely.
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  • I took a look at the spreadsheet another commenter linked to with the city reports and checked the frequency of all the last digits. In the Vietnam war, they faked body counts and this was statistically noticeable. Here are the counts:Last Count Normal Cummulative Distribution0 215 99.04%1 189 66.98%2 185 55.82%3 191 72.10%4 183 50.00%5 170 17.05%6 169 15.26%7 173 23.20%8 174 25.49%9 181 44.18%0 is the most popular last digit, and it is more than 2 standard deviations above the mean. It is less than 1% likely this would naturally happen.
Frank Gallagher

FT - Reformers arrested in Iran clampdown - 0 views

  • Dozens of reformist political leaders were arrested on Saturday night in Iran
  • Also arrested were Mohsen Mirdamadi, leader of the Iran Islamic Participation Front, the largest reformist party; Zahra Mojaradi, his wife; Saeed Shariati, a member of the party; Abdollah Ramezanzadeh, spokesman in the previous reformist government; and Ahmad Zaidabadi, a senior reformist journalist.Mostafa Tajzadeh and Behzad Nabavi of the Islamic Revolution Mojahedin Organisation, another reformist party, were also taken into custody.
  • Also arrested were Mohsen Mirdamadi, leader of the Iran Islamic Participation Front, the largest reformist party; Zahra Mojaradi, his wife; Saeed Shariati, a member of the party; Abdollah Ramezanzadeh, spokesman in the previous reformist government; and Ahmad Zaidabadi, a senior reformist journalist.
Frank Gallagher

A Reporter at Large: Fugitives: The New Yorker - 0 views

  • Foreign capital is fleeing to Dubai, and Tehran’s stock market has fallen by twenty per cent since May. Curiously, Ayatollah Khamenei issued an edict in October that gave sweeping new powers to Rafsanjani, who runs a government body known as the Expediency Council—a move widely seen as an effort to rein in Ahmadinejad. The new President, in other words, may be too hard-line for even the Supreme Leader.
    • Frank Gallagher
       
      Khamenei gives power to Expediency Council. Chera?
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    Interesting article on reformist activists after the last election. Some good insights into the 2005 Ahmadinejad campaign.
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