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Hans De Keulenaer

The transition to a Zero Emission Vehicles fleet for cars in the EU by 2050 - 1 views

shared by Hans De Keulenaer on 14 Nov 17 - No Cached
  • Decarbonising transport is central to achieving Europe’s policy commitments on climate change. T ransport is expected to deliver a 60% greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction target of the EU for 2050. Achieving these commitments is expected to require a complete decarbonisation of the passenger car fleet. The more ambitious COP21 commitment to limit temperature rises to 1.5°C will also likely demand a complete decarbonisation of transport by 2050.
  • Attaining a 100% ZEV fleet by 2050 will require all new car sales to be ZEV by 2035 (assuming a similar vehicle life-time as today) and a substantially faster introduction of ZEVs and PHEVs than current policy and likely 2025 policies will achieve .
  • Compared to the CO2 emission reductions targeted in the current EU plan, the transition to a 100% ZEV car fleet by 2050 will result in an additional reduction of the cumulative CO2 emissions in the period 2020 and 2050 of 2.2 to 3.9 gigatonnes. The current EU White Paper for T ransport, targets to reduce the transport emissions by 60% compared to 1990.
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  • The best option for a rapid emission reduction is to focus on BEVs rather than PHEVs whereby the EU goes directly and aggressively to 100% ZEV sales. A scenario where PHEVs are first will push the strong ZEV growth further into the future and will ultimately require a larger effort at a later time. However, the impact of (an early fleet of) PHEVs on reducing ZEV costs, increasing consumer acceptance and promoting investments in charging / fuelling infra is difficult to predict / model and may play an important role as well.
  • The “Tank to Wheel” amount of energy needed for transport will be reduced by 78% compared to today for a transition to a BEV passenger car fleet. A transition to a 100% fuel cell electric vehicle fleet will result in a 46% reduction of energy for the EU’s car fleet.
  • Around 1,740 million barrels of oil per year could be saved by 2050 with the transition to a zero-emission passenger car fleet, the equivalent of € 78 billion at the current price of 45 $ per barrel.
  • The GHGs from oil will potentially get higher if shifting to for example oil sands .
  • Purchase cost parity is assumed to be achieved in the period 2022-2026 for a BEV and a comparable internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV), with BEVs being comparatively lower in cost after that. Parity at Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) level will be achieved 2 to 4 years before the purchase cost parity is achieved. The average TCO for a ZEV will be €0.04 to €0.06 per kilometre less than an ICEV by 2030.
  • This represents societal savings of € 140 billion to € 210 billion per year for a 100% ZEV EU car fleet.
  • A mass market for ZEV cars will create synergy for the cost competitive development of a ZEV LCV (Light Commercial V ehicles) market representing 17% of the light vehicles emissions. It will also accelerate the development of a HDV (Heavy Duty V ehicle) ZEV / PHEV market for passenger and goods transportation. It will also free up advanced biofuels for other transport sectors.
  • A lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity of 400 to 600 Gigawatt hours will be required at the point where 100% of the passenger cars in Europe sold will be BEV . This is the equivalent of around 10 to 14 “Giga factories” representing a value of €40 to 60 billion per year for cars alone.
  • In addition, as BEVs have superior driving performance characteristics and people used to driving electric do not return to ICEVs, the transition may become demand driven once the price, range and infrastructure barriers have been removed.
Hans De Keulenaer

Decarbonising our economies means redefining progress « 3E Intelligence - 0 views

  • Time to dispair? Not according to Monbiot: “We must confront a challenge which is as great and as pressing as the rise of the Axis powers. Had we thrown up our hands then, as many people are tempted to do today, you would be reading this paper in German. Though the war often seemed impossible to win, when the political will was mobilised strange and implausible things began to happen. The US economy was spun round on a dime in 1942 as civilian manufacturing was switched to military production(25). The state took on greater powers than it had exercised before. Impossible policies suddenly became achievable.
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    Hope it is not time for the ' global war on climate change'.
davidchapman

BBC NEWS | Scotland | Glasgow, Lanarkshire and West | Switch on for largest wind farm - 0 views

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    Europe's largest onshore wind farm is set to be officially switched on by Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond. David MacKay, professor of natural philosophy at the University of Cambridge's department of physics, said Whitelee was a step towards targets to cut carbon emissions, but was only a start. He said: "To achieve the government target of a complete decarbonisation of our electricity supply system by 2030 we need to be talking about a 100-fold increase in wind farms in Britain and perhaps as much as a five-fold increase in nuclear power. "That's the scale of the building challenge we have if we're serious about getting off fossil fuels."
Hans De Keulenaer

IndustRE: Flexibility for variable renewable energy in energy intensive industries - Yo... - 2 views

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    The combination of demand-side management in industry and renewables provides a powerful recipe for decarbonisation.
Hans De Keulenaer

PB-2017_05_SimoneTagliapietra-1.pdf - 0 views

shared by Hans De Keulenaer on 23 Nov 17 - No Cached
  • The EU should de-politicise coal by providing a solution to the related socioeconomic issues, such as the difficulties of transition in coal mining regions. T o do so, the EU should broaden the scope and change the functioning of the European Globalisation Adjustment Fund, to make it into a flagship EU initiative that will support European coal miners who will inevitably be affected by EU decarbonisation. By devoting 0.1 percent of its post-2020 budget to this item, the EU could facilitate the elimination of a major stumbling block on its decarbonisation pathway.
  • Box 1: A back-of-the-envelope calculation of the EGCF budget requirements to support the coal phase-out Europeans employed in coal mining = 216,000 (0.07 percent of total) Assuming a 50 percent phase-out between 2020-27 = 108,000 jobs to be phased out (Fair to assume that part of the remaining 50 percent will naturally retire over the period) 108,000 / 7 years = 15,430 jobs to be phased out yearly between 2020-2027 Assuming financial support of €10,000 per worker = €154 million per year Total financial requirement for the coal-item of the EGCF between 2020-27 = €1 billion
Hans De Keulenaer

COGEN Europe » Leading scientists propose smarter low carbon future - 0 views

  • A report launched today highlights critical challenges in the current ‘all-electric’ approach to decarbonisation of the UK energy system as this would increase our dependence on the electricity system to unprecedented levels. A system that makes greater use of cogeneration and district heating can however mitigate many of the more demanding aspects of the ‘all-electric’ approach. Used in combination with biomass and CCS technology for fossil fuels, cogeneration and district heating infrastructure have a key role to play up to 2050 and beyond. Find the full report  and the press release here.
Hans De Keulenaer

IRENA Director-General Statement on Oil Prices and Impact on the Renewable Energy Sector - 2 views

  • Oil plays a negligible role in power generation and therefore does not compete with renewables in this respect. Renewables have become the dominant source of new power generation capacity over the last six years because they are competitive at the bottom end of the conventional fossil fuel power generation cost range – primarily with coal.
  • Oil plays a much more important role in the transport sector, which accounts for half of total demand, and where without low-emission transport policies in place, an extended period of low oil prices, may impact the speed of electric vehicle adoption.
  • Conversely, oil price volatility may undermine the viability of unconventional oil and gas resources as well long-term contracts, providing a window of opportunity to reduce or redirect fossil fuel subsidies towards clean energy, while minimising the potential of social disruption.
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  • What is critical to understand, is that the long-term planning horizons involved, and the momentum that currently exists in the energy transformation, means neither low oil prices nor COVID-19 will interrupt or change our path towards decarbonisation of our societies and towards the achievement of the sustainable development goals.
Phil Slade

Europe could create a 100% renewable electricity supply by 2050 - PIK Research Portal - 1 views

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    " Renewable energy sources could be used at scale by 2050 if supported by an efficient European transmission grid and a single European power market united with similar grids and markets in North Africa. This is shown in a new report released last week by PricewaterhouseCoopers. A group of energy and climate experts from the company in collaboration with researchers of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and the European Climate Forum (ECF) have examined possible transformation paths for the European and North African power sector. A transformation of the power sector based on one hundred percent renewables would address energy security and supply concerns while decarbonising electricity generation and at the same time reduce energy poverty, the report says."
Hans De Keulenaer

The transition to a Zero Emission Vehicles fleet for cars in the EU by 2050 - 2 views

shared by Hans De Keulenaer on 18 Nov 17 - No Cached
  • The transport sector is expected to deliver a 60% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the EU by 2050. Achieving these commitments is expected to require a complete decarbonisation of the passenger car fleet.
Hans De Keulenaer

Empowering electricity consumers to lower their carbon footprint - Analysis - IEA - 0 views

  • the CO2 emissions intensity of electricity supply across an average day could vary by more than a factor of 7
Hans De Keulenaer

Energy Efficiency, Natural Gas and Renewable Energy Drove Decade of U.S. Energy Transfo... - 1 views

  • The 2020 Factbook showcases the impact of sustainable energy over the last decade and highlights findings for 2019 that follow the macro trends of the 2010s: • Renewable energy became the cheapest new generation source in many U.S. power markets. The U.S. has over 2 times more renewable power generating capacity today than a decade ago. Solar capacity in 2019 was 80 times greater than what it was at the end of 2009. • Energy efficiency choices have proliferated, with federal programs helping high-efficiency appliances reach mass markets and state codes bolstering building efficiency. The economy grew every year in the past decade and energy use fell in five of the ten years. U.S. energy productivity (GDP/energy consumption) improved 18% between 2010 and 2019, benefiting businesses and households. • Natural gas became the primary source of U.S. power generation and shifted the scales in the global market. Between 2010 and 2019 domestic natural gas production jumped 50%, and natural gas went from providing 24% of the nation's electricity to 38%. The U.S. increased its export capacity to exceed its import capacity, building stronger trade relationships around the world. In 2019, the U.S. exported more gas than it imported.
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