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Does Income Inequality Help Cause Financial Crises? « naked capitalism - 0 views

  • high levels of income inequality stoke financial crises
  • Richard B. Freeman, an economist at Harvard, is comparing about 125 financial crises around the globe that occurred over the last 30 years. He said inequality soared before many of these crises.
  • ncome inequality is either a symptom of conditions that can produce bank crises (like excessive financailization of an economy) or a secondary contributor.
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  • large scale international capital flows would be associated with the prominence of large international ventures which again could distribute a lot of winnings to a comparatively small (in societal terms) number of beneficiaries.
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Income inequality | The Economist - 0 views

  • Despite a quarter century during which incomes have drifted ever farther apart, the distribution of wealth has remained remarkably stable. The richest Americans now earn as big a share of overall income as they did a century ago, but their share of overall wealth is much lower. Indeed, it has barely budged in the few past decades.
  • distribution of wealth has remained remarkably stable. The richest Americans now earn as big a share of overall income as they did a century ago, but their share of overall wealth is much lower. Indeed, it has barely budged in the few past decades.
  • Productivity and globalisation have caused real income to rise much faster for those at the top of the income distribution than it has for the poor and middle class. High earners experienced more than a 30% increase in their real income over the last thirty years. Meanwhile, the bottom 50% of wage earners saw their real income increased by only 5-10%.
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  • Whether these shifts were good or bad depends on your political persuasion. Those on the left lament the gaps, often forgetting that the greater income disparities have created bigger incentives to get an education, which has led to a better trained, more productive workforce. The share of American workers with a college degree, 20% in 1980, is over 30% today.
  • the focus should be on giving everyone a an equal chance to be successful. This might mean making the tax code less regressive by expanding the earned income tax credit, eliminating tax subsidies to the rich, and improving access to quality education. 
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Consumer fatigue an ominous sign for economy - The Globe and Mail - 1 views

  • Consumers typically account for 60 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product, and rising living costs along with elevated debt levels suggest they won’t be much help this year
  • Gross domestic product expanded at an annualized 3.9 per cent in the first quarter, the fastest pace in a year, led by business investment and manufacturing, Statistics Canada said
  • that pace will be cut by almost half in the second quarter, while Finance Minister Jim Flaherty told reporters Monday he’s anticipating “more modest” growth in the rest of the year
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  • In the near term, households are under pressure as rising food and energy costs cut into their budgets
  • “I will never, never do that again. I want to have the money up front before I buy something, because I don’t want to get into that trouble again,” said Ms. Thornton
  • the household debt service ratio – debt payments to disposable income – jumped to a three-year high of 7.8 per cent from 7.2 per cent
  • Kim Thornton, for example, is one fatigued consumer. The mother of four says her family ran up about $50,000 in debt in prior years on credit card spending
  • In the longer term, high debt levels could restrain spending for years
  • Canadians are getting the message about whittling down debt, and that is translating into fewer purchases of discretionary goods
  • reduced hours and leaner wages – a legacy from the recession – mean many families have less money with which to service their debt, he added
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Canadians load up on mortgages, cut card debt - 0 views

  • The bank set aside $145million in provisions for credit losses, down $104-million as more customers repaid their loans.
    • Steven Iarusci
       
      BMO is the bank in question.
  • consumer credit-card balances are declining as bank customers start to heed warnings about taking on too much debt
  • On the residential mortgage side, Mr. Downe said he expects to see growth start to "soften" in the coming months
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  • record household debt levels have left this country vulnerable to economic shocks
  • the Canadian banks will report a slight increase in profit for the quarter as they contend with the impact of declining consumer borrowing, moderating capital markets activity and other headwinds.
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  • With domestic household debt levels hovering close to where they were in the United States prior to the financial crisis, many observers are warning that Canadians need to start paying down debt if the economy is remain on level footing
  • anadian consumers continue to pile on mortgage debt despite repeated warnings that they need to crank back on borrowing if this country is to avoid a painful real estate correction
  • Canadian consumers continue to pile on mortgage debt despite repeated warnings that they need to crank back on borrowing if this country is to avoid a painful real estate correction
  • growth in the overall home loan market "is continuing to be more robust,"
  • Canada's fourth-largest lender on Wednesday kicked off second-quarter bank earnings season with a 7.5% increase in profit on the back of lower provisions for bad loans
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Report cautions that over-indebted consumers can't drive economy - 0 views

  • a rate hike may come in the fall
    • Steven Iarusci
       
      Interest rates
  • the main message is that consumers cannot be the main engines of economic growth over the next couple of years,” the authors conclude. “Instead, the economy will have to rely on other sources of growth, such as exports and business investment.”
  • Canadians have “eased off the debt-accumulation throttle,”
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  • still net borrowers, meaning they borrow more than they save
  • consumer spending will not be the engine of economic growth in the coming quarters and the inevitable future rebalancing of monetary policy will be a shock to many households
  • some of the drop in household indebtedness is explained by strong income gains, not by debt repayment per se
  • sustainable personal growth is likely in a range of 4.0-4.5 per cent. Credit continues to grow at a pace that is two percentage points above that
  • the level of Canadian household debt — which in December officially surpassed those of our neighbours to the south — is unsustainable
  • total consumer debt load is reported to be about $1.5 trillion
  • Data released late last year suggested Canadians owed on average $112,000 — a figure that includes all kinds of debt, including mortgages — and a debt-to-income ratio of 150 per cent means they were spending $1,500 for every $1,000 in take-home pay
  • Factors that will moderate credit growth over the short term include spending fatigue, a soft landing in the housing market, stricter mortgage rules and Canadians preparing for the higher interest rates that are sure to come as the economy recovers.
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The Canadian Press: Canadian borrowing grows 4.5 per cent in first quarter from year ago - 0 views

  • Canadians' average non-mortgage debt grew 4.5 per cent to $25,597 in the first quarter compared to a year earlier, signalling that consumers aren't necessarily clamping down on borrowing even as they rein in spending.
  • Total debt per consumer, including credit cards, car loans and lines of credit but excluding mortgages, was up from $24,497 in the same quarter of 2010,
  • most in Quebec and Newfoundland and Labrador, with debt rising by 7.8 per cent in both provinces, while British Columbians had the highest average consumer debt at $36,649
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  • consumer debt rose in all provinces
  • the trend still remains modest compared to the double-digit, pre-recession levels
  • Average credit card debt
  • sign of troubled credit health, the national credit card delinquency rate — the ratio of credit card accounts that are 90 days or more overdue — grew 11 per cent from the first quarter of 2010.
  • average borrower debt on auto loans was also up in the quarter — by 12.4 per cent to $16,189 from $14,402 in the first quarter of 2010
  • Lines of credit are the most popular form of consumer debt
  • more than 41 per cent of outstanding debt at the end of the first quarter
  • consumers should take care to rein in their borrowing
  • consumer spending slowed during the first quarter, to just 0.1 per cent growth
  • consumers are focused on consolidating debt after borrowing heavily during the recession
  • higher energy and particularly gasoline prices are taking a bigger bite out of household budgets, leaving less for other forms of expenditures
  • high levels of indebtedness are expected to weigh down purchases going forward
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Ottawa resale market to cool in 2011; sales to fall 8%: CMHC - Residential - Real Estat... - 0 views

  • local sales of existing homes listed on the Multiple Listing Service are anticipated to fall to an estimated 13,750 units from 14,923 in 2010, a 7.9-per-cent drop, before picking up again to approximately 14,100 units in 2012.
  • Higher anticipated mortgage rates have resulted in a pull-forward effect on housing demand
  • sales were higher in late 2010 and early 2011 as buyers rushed to avoid rising interest rates and new mortgage rule changes
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  • still at historic lows, moderate raises in mortgage rates will impact carrying costs negatively, thus slightly subduing housing demand
  • Average resale prices are expected to rise by a brisk 11.5 per cent to $340,000 this year, but the growth rate will slow significantly in 2012, to 2.9 per cent
  • that segment falling 20.1 per cent to 1,975 units
  • 5,950 total housing starts forecast for 2011, up 2.3 per cent from the previous year
  • single-detached market is anticipated to be the hardest-hit
  • New home construction is also expected to cool down this year
  • result of an ongoing shift towards more affordable housing types
  • first-time homebuyers and downsizing empty-nesters at the forefront of Ottawa's housing market
  • raising the popularity of more affordable housing types such as condominium apartments, townhouses and semi-detached homes
  • soaring gas prices and lengthening commute times will push up interest in homes in the core
  • Elsewhere in the country
  • MLS sales, meanwhile, are expected to be between 429,500 and 480,000 units, with 2012 sales anticipated to be in the range of 410,000 to 511,900 units
  • slowdown affecting both single-detached homes and multi-family housing
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    A few numbers pertaining to supply of housing in the Ottawa market. Talks a little of why demand is changing in the market.
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UDPATE: Canada Budget Watchdog Sees Deficit Through Fiscal 2016 - WSJ.com - 0 views

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    Odds are very slim for the Canadian government to balance the budget by 2015. Though growth is projected at 2.9% for 2011, it is projected lower around 2% for 2012 and 2013
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Op-Ed: Canada's deflating economy - 1 views

  • The reason for the minimal GDP growth that we had was government spending increased over this period and government debt increased by about $139 billion.
  • Government Debt
  • The government is in a dilemma now. Despite the rosy forecasts they like to create showing how well our economy is doing there are reasons for major concerns.
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  • Government spending cannot continue to increase especially when it is financed by debt. The recession was started by economies overloaded with debt. Rather than deal with the imbalances government decided to increase spending "grow the economy" and create more debt. Now we are in a predicament that there are no tools left for governments to throw at the economic problems.
  • Canada's net debt had grown to $582 billion, up from $516 billion two years earlier.
  • The government's attempt to continue economic growth by borrowing has failed. Canada's economy is going nowhere and we are farther behind because of government debt. The future does not look much better for Canada's economy.
  • government borrowing huge amounts of money to bolster the economy
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Sharp export drop squeezes trade surplus - The Globe and Mail - 1 views

  • Exports tumbled 4.9 per cent in February, outpacing a 4-per-cent drop in imports and slicing the country’s trade surplus to just $33-million, trade figures showed Tuesday.
  • Canadian export levels remain 19 per cent below their peak of July, 2008.
  • The sharp drop in February’s trade volumes “portends a slowdown in the Canadian economy in the second quarter of 2011 – a slowdown connected with less robust growth in the U.S., as well as major disruptions to North American vehicle output as a result of critical parts shortages from Japan,” said Brian Bethune, chief economist for Canada at IHS Global Insight.
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  • The surplus narrowed in February, on lower exports of crude petroleum and cars, from a revised $382-million, Statistics Canada said Tuesday. Economists polled by Bloomberg had expected a surplus of $500-million.
  • Both imports and exports fell. Exports tumbled 4.9 per cent after four straight months of growth while imports slid 4 per cent.
  • Import volumes, meanwhile, fell 4.3 per cent while prices rose 0.2 per cent. Again, most of the drop was due to lower volumes in autos and energy. Exports to the United States fell 3.5 per cent after four months in a row of growth. Imports fell 6.1 per cent, leaving the surplus at $4.6-billion. Exports to countries other than the United States fell 8.5 per cent amid lower shipments of precious metals to the European Union. Energy exports fell 8 per cent, led by a drop in crude “reflecting higher inventories in the United States,” the agency said. That follows a 71-per-cent increase in crude exports from September to January.
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Commodity price index - Annual - 1 views

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    The new Bank of Canada commodity price index (BCPI) is a chain Fisher price index of the spot or transaction U.S. dollar prices of 24 commodities produced in Canada and sold in world markets, with weights updated on an annual basis. The new Fisher BCPI is also updated using recent commodity production data. The new index, therefore, produces a more accurate and more representative commodity price index.
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Food, oil prices hit US economy - 0 views

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    Economists have cut forecasts for economic growth in the second quarter following the dismal 1.8 percent pace in the first, with indicators of industrial production, consumer spending and unemployment all appearing soft. Economists said they still foresee a stronger second half, as consumers and businesses adjust to the higher oil price Ian Shepherdson, U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics, said the sharp rise in the price of oil has helped stifle job creation. "The trend in claims has nudged up a bit as companies have responded to the rise in oil prices," he said.
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Commodity prices rise amid economic turbulence - 0 views

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    Lately, oil price is extremely volatile due to disappointing economic data from the US and eurozone, uncertainty about a potential debt-restructure in Greece and weaker oil demand from the US, China and Japan. Gasoline demand is expected however to pick up in the coming weeks as Americans take to the road for their summer holidays. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) or light sweet crude for July climbed to $100.35 a barrel from $97.41. Gold and Silver remain to be the safest investments during problematic economic times. As a result the precious metals have increased in price: on the London Bullion Market, gold jumped to $1,533 an ounce from $1,491 the previous week; Silver rose to $37.69 an ounce from $34.80.
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The gas-price debate - 0 views

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    Neither the Republicans' nor the Democrats' policy proposals have much chance of having a significant effect on prices. Your taxis and town cars and commutes are not going to be made any cheaper-at least in the near-term-by ending oil company subsidies or drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge There isn't much that politicians can do to lower gas prices, but there is some good news for politicians panicked about the potential effect of high gas prices on their re-election chances.
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Clement wants oil industry to explain gas prices - 0 views

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    Federal Industry Minister Tony Clement said Thursday he wants the petroleum industry to explain how it sets gasoline prices. "No one can understand why last year, when oil per barrel was around $140 or $150, we were paying $1.37 per litre, when this year oil is south of $98 a barrel and yet we're paying more," Clement said.
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Jesse Kline: U.S. looks to Canada to fix its debt crisis | Full Comment | National Post - 1 views

  • In 1994, Canada’s debt-to-GDP ratio was around 67%, but thanks to sound fiscal management, deep spending cuts and sustained economic growth, this number was reduced to 29% by 2009
  • Canadian experience shows that government can balance the books by making significant spending cuts, and that can be done without having an adverse effect on economic growth and levels of employment
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Tax incentives don't create jobs: economist - 0 views

  • Tax incentives for small business don't create jobs and in some cases restrict a company's growth
  • lower taxes create disincentives for small businesses to grow
  • governments have reduced or eliminated corporate taxes on small businesses (2.5 per cent in Alberta) even though there is no evidence the move is effective
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  • companies may break into smaller units to take advantage of tax benefits
  • concern really is over the growth aspect and job creation, because we do see so few small businesses growing
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TheSpec - Average Canadian family $100,000 in the red - 0 views

  • The average Canadian family has joined the $100,000 club, but it’s one they most likely don’t want to belong to.
  • Average Canadian household debt has hit $100,879. That’s close to twice as much as we owed 20 years ago, according to a study by the Vanier Institute for the Family
  • At the same time, the rate at which Canadians save has dropped
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  • In 2010, that savings rate has dropped to 4.2 percent — about $2,500 per household.
  • the recession has shaken out the labour market. “We’re experiencing a gain in jobs, but people are now in jobs that paid less than what they did.
  • Mortgages account for about two-thirds of the $100,879 owed by the average household, or about $63,126 per household, with 55 per cent holding mortgages and 45 per cent mortgage-free. The other third is consumer debt, which includes credit cards and personal loans.
  • “The debt-to-income ratio is concerning … but recently, (mortgage) credit demand has slowed and consumer credit demand has slowed considerably as well. It’s now at less than 5 per cent, which is half of what we saw in the previous five years on average.”
  • Personal debt consolidation and restructuring expert Jim Ferguson said the most common reason people are getting into overbearing debt is the ease of availability of credit
  • Canadian debt levels, relative to income, are still meaningfully below peak U.S. levels, but that a further sizable increase would be worrisome.
  • “Household financial assets are also growing fast due to the strong stock market, which dampen concerns about the debt, but assets can vanish more quickly than debts.”
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Government Collaboration Builds Growth - 0 views

  • effective local government would play in improving northeast Ohio's economic future
  • conomic competitiveness component of the Fund for Our Economic Future
  • government efficiency and collaboration are relevant and timely topics in our region
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  • We are beginning to see the positive results collaboration can bring, including significant savings to protect vital services and ensure our communities invest in innovation and education to create jobs and keep the region competitive in the global economy."
  • he rate of local government spending in Northeast Ohio is 70 times the region's population growth, 2.8 times its inflation rate and 2.4 times its economic output
  • government entities spend $20 billion to operate
  • ortheast Ohio residents have made it clear that more efficient local government is a regional priorit
  • collaboration of 100 foundations, organizations and philanthropists from across Northeast Ohio
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