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Kiruban Mahadeva

The Canadian Press: Time for U.S. to deal with debt problem; spillover could hurt Canad... - 1 views

  • concerned about the mounting level of debt in the United States and its potential to slow Canada's recovery
  • when debt exceeds 90 per cent of GDP, economic growth will slow, and that is a situation facing most of Canada's major trading partners, particularly the U.S
  • as markets lose patience with the pace of deficit reduction, the result will be higher interest rates that impact all
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  • It's a transformation that sees emerging markets like China bound forward while advanced countries — Canada's traditional economic partners — muddle along through years of slow growth because of massive debt.
Susan Cui

Canadian house prices continue to rise, although April sales down - 6 views

  • Canadian home prices continued their upward march in April, driven by strong investor demand in Vancouver, while cracks in the Toronto condominium market may be starting to appear.
  • The Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday the average price of a home sold in April across the country was $372,544, up eight per cent from a year ago.
  • but the Ottawa-based group cautioned that the figure was skewed due to "surging multimillion dollar property sales in selected areas of Greater Vancouver."
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  • slow April sales figures
  • saw activity dip 4.4 per cent from March
  • The slow sales are said to have been driven by new mortgage rules which came into affect April 19 and made it tougher to borrow.
  • Changes to mortgage regulations that took effect in April 2011 likely sidelined a number of first-time homebuyers. By contrast, higher end homes sales in Greater Vancouver and Toronto had their best April ever.
  • more than 50 per cent of condominiums sold in the past year were purchased by buyers who do not intend to occupy their units and plan to rent in many instances.
  • People are buying these for capital appreciation.
  • Don Lawby, chief executive of Century 21 Canada, says the housing market has been affected by foreign investors who have reacted to tougher tax rules in their home country by investing abroad.
  • They are not afraid to offer above price and they are not afraid to get into a bidding war
  • Nevertheless, Lawby says
  • these investors
  • are small and the impact on the larger market minimal.
  • while April numbers present a market with falling sales and rising prices,
  • market conditions were exaggerated by some one-time issues.
naheekim

TheSpec - Average Canadian family $100,000 in the red - 0 views

  • The average Canadian family has joined the $100,000 club, but it’s one they most likely don’t want to belong to.
  • Average Canadian household debt has hit $100,879. That’s close to twice as much as we owed 20 years ago, according to a study by the Vanier Institute for the Family
  • At the same time, the rate at which Canadians save has dropped
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  • In 2010, that savings rate has dropped to 4.2 percent — about $2,500 per household.
  • the recession has shaken out the labour market. “We’re experiencing a gain in jobs, but people are now in jobs that paid less than what they did.
  • Mortgages account for about two-thirds of the $100,879 owed by the average household, or about $63,126 per household, with 55 per cent holding mortgages and 45 per cent mortgage-free. The other third is consumer debt, which includes credit cards and personal loans.
  • “The debt-to-income ratio is concerning … but recently, (mortgage) credit demand has slowed and consumer credit demand has slowed considerably as well. It’s now at less than 5 per cent, which is half of what we saw in the previous five years on average.”
  • Personal debt consolidation and restructuring expert Jim Ferguson said the most common reason people are getting into overbearing debt is the ease of availability of credit
  • Canadian debt levels, relative to income, are still meaningfully below peak U.S. levels, but that a further sizable increase would be worrisome.
  • “Household financial assets are also growing fast due to the strong stock market, which dampen concerns about the debt, but assets can vanish more quickly than debts.”
naheekim

Household debt continues to rise - Business - CBC News - 2 views

  • Household liabilities grew by 6.5 per cent in the fourth quarter, compared with the same period a year ago, the slowest annual growth rate since the fourth quarter of 2002.
  • The average debt-to-personal disposable income ratio edged down to 146.8 per cent in the quarter, but only because a 1.8 per cent gain in average personal disposable income outpaced a gain in credit market debt.
  • But the rate at which Canadians piled on debt slowed, with nonmortgage credit, such as credit cards, slowing the most, at 5.8 per cent from a year ago.
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  • Overall household liabilities grew by 6.5 per cent from the same period a year ago levels.
  • Household net worth per capita increased from $178,200 in the third quarter to $181,700 in the fourth quarter.
  • The rate of growth in net worth, after rebounding from the recession, has stayed in a range of between five and six per cent. That compares with a pace of between nine to 10 per cent in the five years leading up to the recession.
  • "Once interest rates start to rise over the latter half of 2011, the debt-service ratio is expected to climb substantially."
  • Measuring all debt — government, business and family — national net worth edged up 0.3 per cent to $6.3 trillion in the fourth quarter, the slowest quarterly growth of the year.
Joey Keum

Canada Adds More Jobs Than Forecast as Unemployment Falls - Businessweek - 1 views

  •  
    The Bank of Canada said last month economic growth is likely to slow to a 2 percent annual pace in the April-June period after a surge in the first quarter. The bank has also said there is "considerable monetary stimulus in place." The next meetings are May 31 and July 19.
Heshani Makalande

Canadian debt load: $26,000 - excluding mortgages - Moneyville.ca - 0 views

  • Already at record levels, Canadians now owe just under $26,000 on average on their lines of credit, credit cards and auto loans, according to credit rating agency, TransUnion.
  • That’s an increase of 4.5 per cent, or another $1,000, over the same period last year.
  • The fear is that higher rates could push more consumers beyond their ability to repay their loans
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  • Debt growth in Canada is slowing from the double-digit pace seen before the recession
  • And total borrowing, including mortgages, typically the biggest household loan, is slowing, major Canadian banks said recently in their quarterly reports.
  • The Bank of Canada’s trend-setting overnight lending rate is just 1 per cent. But with inflation running at 3.3 per cent, above the central bank’s ideal range, Carney is under pressure to start raising lending rates to dampen demand.
  • Total debt per consumer increased to $25,597 in the first three months of this year,
  • Among types of loans, TransUnion said credit card debt, usually the most expensive to carry, barely budged from a year ago, falling $25 to an average of $3,539.
  • In a sign some borrowers may already be struggling, the national credit card delinquency rate rose 11 per cent. The rate measures the ratio of consumers who take 90 days or more to pay their bill.
  • The average line of credit, the most popular loans for their low cost and high flexibility, rose 5.9 per cent to $33,762 compared to last year. However, total line of credit debt declined for the first time in five quarters.
  • One noticeable shift was the decreased use of lines of credit, Higgins said. The category is the largest among consumer loans, making up 41 per cent of the total, and even more in Ontario, at 57 per cent
  • The study found debt loads rose in all provinces, led by Quebec and Newfoundland and Labrador. British Columbians had the highest load at $36,649.
  • Lines of credit are the most popular form of consumer debt, excluding mortgages, accounting for more than 41 per cent of outstanding debt at the end of the first quarter. Debt on lines of credit stood at an average $33,981, up 5.9 per cent from $31,867 in the first quarter of 2010.
Noah Schafer

Jobless rate, global uncertainty to test Tories' economic strategy - thestar.com - 0 views

  • The new Conservative government’s business-friendly economic strategy will be tested by uncertain global conditions and a stubbornly high jobless rate in Canada. One of the first items on Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s agenda when Parliament re
  • The new Conservative government’s business-friendly economic strategy will be tested by uncertain global conditions and a stubbornly high jobless rate in Canada.
  • n February, Canada’s output sank by 0.2 per cent, the worst monthly performance since May 2009.
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  • One of the first items on Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s agenda when Parliament returns will be reintroduction of a $278 billion budget that includes a sprinkling of social and economic spending and a plan to slay the budget deficit in several years. And the government will continue with a $6 billion corporate income tax cut.
  • “The risks still lie outside the Canadian border, which as we’re well aware can have a spillover effect on Canada,” said Royal Bank chief economist Craig Wright.
  • “We’re seeing continued uncertainty and concerns still with respect to the Eurozone and where it’s headed,” he said. Uncertainty on economic growth is also being fanned by volatile energy markets and the questionable U.S. business rebound, Wright said.
  • Prospects for Canada are also complicated by expectations that spending by debt-burdened consumers could slow in 2011 and by the shut-off of the Conservatives’ two-year, $47 billion emergency stimulus program.
  • With government spending slowing, the Conservatives have staked a great deal on their view that the business community will pick up the slack and stimulate the economy with expansion-minded investments.
  • Besides phasing in corporate income tax cuts worth $14 billion by 2012, the Conservatives in recent years have provided a wide range of investment incentives for business, including easing taxes on small business and manufacturers. In all, tax cuts for business by the Conservatives total an estimated $60 billion by 2013.
  • both Flaherty and Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney have pointedly talked about the urgent need for more spending on machinery and equipment by companies.
  • But many are not convinced, with some Canadians saying the government would be smarter to tie tax incentives directly to company investments to ensure that corporations don’t just pocket the extra profits.
  • Speaking of corporate tax cuts, Canadian Association of Social Workers spokesperson Fred Phelps said it would be one thing “if corporations turned around and invested those funds into the economy.” But he said that hasn’t been happening in recent years. “What really has driven us out of the recession,” he said, “is spending by households and government, not business.”
Susan Cui

Best Way to Fix Housing Market Let Prices Fall (Fast): Tech Ticker, Yahoo! Finance - 3 views

  • "Fixing the housing market" is usually defined as:Stopping house prices from falling Stopping foreclosures
  • Prices. The best way to stop prices from falling is to let them fall far enough to reach equilibrium, fast.
  • Foreclosed houses are selling like hotcakes because prices are finally attractive enough to draw in new capital.
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  • Un-foreclosed houses are NOT selling like hotcakes, but this is because their owners have yet faced up to the reality of how little they are worth (or, put differently, because they don't yet have to sell).
  • The vast majority of plans to "stop prices from falling" involve subsidies of one form or another (tax credits, subsidized mortgage rates, etc.)  These may slow the decline, but they won't stop it
  • subsidizing/encouraging debt-bingeing and homeownership is what got us until this mess in this first place.
  • The fastest and most effective way to stop prices from falling is to let them fall until they've reached equilibrium. And then start rebuilding wealth, equity, and economic growth from there.
  • Lots of Americans are going to lose their houses in the next few years regardless of what we do.
  • Keeping the number of foreclosures as small as possible
  • will just delay the inevitable
  • Importantly,
  • Foreclosures are caused by owners' inability to make debt payments.
  • The best way to stop foreclosures, therefore, is to get people out of houses they can't afford and into houses they CAN afford (whether by renting or buying).
  • the house-price issue
  • (No reason to buy or build now if you think prices will be cheaper tomorrow).
  • Businesses and consumers
  • open up their wallets
  • when house prices stop falling. And the fastest way to get there is to let them fall.
Dmitri Tkachenko

As Canadians get older, economy gets weaker - The Globe and Mail - 0 views

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    "Statistics Canada projection shows a sharp decrease that will continue for at least the next 20 years. Employment growth since 1976 has averaged 1.6 per cent a year, while the population grew at a rate of 1.1 per cent. That extra half a percentage point added roughly 0.3-0.4 percentage points to the average growth rate of real per capita income above what it would have been otherwise. Not only is this source of growth about to disappear, demographic aging is going to start being a negative contributor to economic growth: fewer workers mean less output. One of the first places we'll see the effects of population aging is its effect on the government budget balance. Higher output per worker would help compensate for a reduction in the number of workers, so productivity will become an increasingly important policy priority. But in the short and medium term, there is no quick fix. "
Joey Keum

Canadian HR Reporter - Article - February job growth weaker than expected - 1 views

  • Net employment gains in the month were a modest 15,100, below market forecasts of a 21,000 increase, said a Statistics Canada report.
  • he report disappointed hopes that hiring momentum in the previous two months would persist. Net job gains were 69,200 in January and 30,400 in December.
  • Canada has recovered jobs lost during the recession faster than the United States but the February data bucked that trend.
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  • The labour market is not going to create any further inflationary pressure, either coming from wage (gains) or the general strength in the labor markets," said Sebastien Lavoie, assistant chief economist at Laurentian Bank Securities.
  • In further signs of slowing, Canada's labour report said the economy shed 24,000 full-time positions in February, partially offset by the addition of 39,000 part-time jobs. The number of self-employed workers rose, while the number working in the private sector edged lower.
  • The February jobless rate was unchanged at 7.8 per cent, versus the 7.7 per cent forecasts by analysts in a Reuters poll.
  • The average hourly wage of permanent employees — which is closely watched by the Bank of Canada for inflation pressures — rose 2.5 per cent from February 2010, up from 2.3 per cent year-on-year rate in both January and December.
  • "It probably lowers the probability of any near term tightening by the Bank of Canada and as a result (will) probably weigh on the Canadian dollar," said Paul Ferley, assistant chief economist at the Royal Bank of Canada.
Carolyne Wang

Is income inequality just business as usual? - The Globe and Mail - 0 views

    • Carolyne Wang
       
      The visuals in this link show the distribution of wealth among the highest income earners in Canada.
  • international statistics show that poverty rates are lowest where income inequality is lowest too. That can be because of culture -- the wage spectrum is compressed, as in Japan, where it is unseemly to get too far ahead of others in pay -- or through active redistribution programs, where taxes and the services they buy redistribute incomes and opportunities to try to level the playing field a bit more.
  • For most of the 20th century inequality in Canada - and in virtually all developed nations, actually - had been declining. By the 1980s that long term trend reversed. First because of recessions (where the bottom end of the spectrum lost ground) then because of rowth (when the top part of the income spectrum zoomed ahead). So for the past generation inequality has grown in Canada, in good times and bad.
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  • There are two reasons for hope. One is, oddly, the result of an aging population and the consequent shrinking pool of workers, which may push up wages for workers producing basic goods and services, not just those at the top of the skill spectrum. The other is a culture shift, where a growing number of boomers understand what is at play and start working with others to come up with ways to ensure there will be a resilient middle class for the next generation.
  • When the cost of something goes up, we tend to consume less of it. So, since living wages are higher than minimum wages, employers are likely to hire fewer workers. A living wage campaign is part of the effort to raise the visibility of a sorry development in Canada. The saying that "the best social policy is a job" is in many ways true; but a new reality has developed over the past decade or so - that you can't necessarily escape poverty by working. Working full-time full-year at a minimum wage job, as many adults do, condems you to poverty.
  • Professor Richard Wilkinson just finished a tour of Canada, discussing his research findings from the past 30 years or so. A social epidemiologist, he has gathered international data showing the very tight correlation between life expectancy and income inequality, between literacy and income inequality, between rates of incarceration and income inequality, etc. etc. Over and over again he shows a range of issues that have a strong social gradient which reveal that almost everybody is better off in a society with greater income equality, including the rich. You can see his presentation in Vancouver at this link. http://i.sfu.ca/TmyYCh
  • The Mincome experiment in Manitoba in the mid 1970s, the MacDonald Commission i n the mid 1980s, and the House Report from Newfoundland and Labrador in the early 1990s all had proposals for providing a basic income. Only Manitoba tried it, as a pilot project, for a few years. The problem with the guaranteed income idea is at what rate you set it, and at what rate you tax it back. It could remove the stigma of income support programs, but it could just as easily be a costly experiment that, essentially, guarantees poverty. Also, as Dr. Wilkinson has suggested, at some point on the GDP per capita curve, income inequality is no longer about material deprivation, but rather one of psycho-social responses. We are, after all, pack animals.
  • We can redress some of the vagaries of the market through public policies, but the root cause of growing inequality is how different peoples' work is valued. IN a slow growth environment, which seems to be the foreseeable future for Canada, it will become harder and harder for those at the top of corporate structures to take the types of increases they have been commanding in the marketplace and expect unionized workers to be happy about losing their pension, benefits and wage increases, and expect low-end workers to essentially stay put or lose more ground. Two things can happen - those at the top start moderating their increases; or those in the middle and the bottom start seeing solid increases, particularly as the wave of retirements starts accelerating. The problem with rising incomes, generally, is that usually goes along with rising prices; and we're about to host the largest cohort of retirees we've ever had in history, a group that lives on fixed and low incomes, to whom rising prices are toxic. So how will the highest priced workers get away witih demanding more in that context I wonder?
  • Historically, increasing economic growth first deliver rising inequality, then lowering inequality (Simon Kuznets' famous work back in the 1950s). That's still true of developing nations - economic growth is first badly distributed, then leads to demands for greater equality.
  • We can raise our kids more equitably - but it will take more taxes. We can have less of a winner take all society - but it will require some people at the top to trim their expectations. We can beat this in small ways, but we also need leaders to express the way forward. In the US they have Warren Buffett, Bill Gates and politicians leading the way. We're waiting for more people like Ed Clarke, the CEO of TD Bank, to weigh in on how to make Canada fairer (his suggestion is higher taxes on the rich).
Maria Li

Rate hikes okay for most but a 'financial shock' for many - The Globe and Mail - 0 views

  • Most Canadians should be able to handle higher interest rates expected later this year, but many will still see a "financial shock," Toronto-Dominion Bank economists say
  • "The main question is how households will respond to the eventual rebalancing of monetary policy, TD economists Craig Alexander and Diana Petramala write in a new report that looks at indebtedness among Canadian households.
  • Canadians will experience a financial shock when interest rates eventually rise, but the vast majority of households should be able to cope so long as interest rates rise only gradually
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  • Bank of Canada held its benchmark overnight rate steady at just 1 per cent, citing global uncertainty and the impact of the strong Canadian dollar, but said rates must eventually rise
  • Annual personal credit growth slowed to a year-over-year pace of 6.4 per cent in April, compared to an average 10.9 per cent in a period spanning 2004 to 2008
  • The moderation in credit growth has been evident in all measures of debt
  • The debt-service ratio, the interest households must pay on their debt each month as a share of personal disposable income, climbed to a two-year high of 7.6 per cent in [the first quarter of] 2011, despite still record low interest rates.
Steven Iarusci

Consumer fatigue an ominous sign for economy - The Globe and Mail - 1 views

  • Consumers typically account for 60 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product, and rising living costs along with elevated debt levels suggest they won’t be much help this year
  • Gross domestic product expanded at an annualized 3.9 per cent in the first quarter, the fastest pace in a year, led by business investment and manufacturing, Statistics Canada said
  • that pace will be cut by almost half in the second quarter, while Finance Minister Jim Flaherty told reporters Monday he’s anticipating “more modest” growth in the rest of the year
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  • In the near term, households are under pressure as rising food and energy costs cut into their budgets
  • “I will never, never do that again. I want to have the money up front before I buy something, because I don’t want to get into that trouble again,” said Ms. Thornton
  • In the longer term, high debt levels could restrain spending for years
  • Kim Thornton, for example, is one fatigued consumer. The mother of four says her family ran up about $50,000 in debt in prior years on credit card spending
  • the household debt service ratio – debt payments to disposable income – jumped to a three-year high of 7.8 per cent from 7.2 per cent
  • Canadians are getting the message about whittling down debt, and that is translating into fewer purchases of discretionary goods
  • reduced hours and leaner wages – a legacy from the recession – mean many families have less money with which to service their debt, he added
Steven Iarusci

The Canadian Press: Canadian borrowing grows 4.5 per cent in first quarter from year ago - 0 views

  • Canadians' average non-mortgage debt grew 4.5 per cent to $25,597 in the first quarter compared to a year earlier, signalling that consumers aren't necessarily clamping down on borrowing even as they rein in spending.
  • Total debt per consumer, including credit cards, car loans and lines of credit but excluding mortgages, was up from $24,497 in the same quarter of 2010,
  • most in Quebec and Newfoundland and Labrador, with debt rising by 7.8 per cent in both provinces, while British Columbians had the highest average consumer debt at $36,649
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  • consumer debt rose in all provinces
  • the trend still remains modest compared to the double-digit, pre-recession levels
  • Average credit card debt
  • sign of troubled credit health, the national credit card delinquency rate — the ratio of credit card accounts that are 90 days or more overdue — grew 11 per cent from the first quarter of 2010.
  • consumers are focused on consolidating debt after borrowing heavily during the recession
  • Lines of credit are the most popular form of consumer debt
  • more than 41 per cent of outstanding debt at the end of the first quarter
  • consumers should take care to rein in their borrowing
  • consumer spending slowed during the first quarter, to just 0.1 per cent growth
  • average borrower debt on auto loans was also up in the quarter — by 12.4 per cent to $16,189 from $14,402 in the first quarter of 2010
  • higher energy and particularly gasoline prices are taking a bigger bite out of household budgets, leaving less for other forms of expenditures
  • high levels of indebtedness are expected to weigh down purchases going forward
Steven Iarusci

Ottawa resale market to cool in 2011; sales to fall 8%: CMHC - Residential - Real Estat... - 0 views

  • local sales of existing homes listed on the Multiple Listing Service are anticipated to fall to an estimated 13,750 units from 14,923 in 2010, a 7.9-per-cent drop, before picking up again to approximately 14,100 units in 2012.
  • Higher anticipated mortgage rates have resulted in a pull-forward effect on housing demand
  • sales were higher in late 2010 and early 2011 as buyers rushed to avoid rising interest rates and new mortgage rule changes
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  • still at historic lows, moderate raises in mortgage rates will impact carrying costs negatively, thus slightly subduing housing demand
  • Average resale prices are expected to rise by a brisk 11.5 per cent to $340,000 this year, but the growth rate will slow significantly in 2012, to 2.9 per cent
  • that segment falling 20.1 per cent to 1,975 units
  • 5,950 total housing starts forecast for 2011, up 2.3 per cent from the previous year
  • single-detached market is anticipated to be the hardest-hit
  • New home construction is also expected to cool down this year
  • result of an ongoing shift towards more affordable housing types
  • first-time homebuyers and downsizing empty-nesters at the forefront of Ottawa's housing market
  • raising the popularity of more affordable housing types such as condominium apartments, townhouses and semi-detached homes
  • soaring gas prices and lengthening commute times will push up interest in homes in the core
  • Elsewhere in the country
  • MLS sales, meanwhile, are expected to be between 429,500 and 480,000 units, with 2012 sales anticipated to be in the range of 410,000 to 511,900 units
  • slowdown affecting both single-detached homes and multi-family housing
  •  
    A few numbers pertaining to supply of housing in the Ottawa market. Talks a little of why demand is changing in the market.
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