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alex yesikov

Governments Are The Primary Creators Of Systemic Risk - Charles Kadlec - Community of L... - 2 views

  • The greatest lesson of the still young 21st century is proving to be that governments are the primary source of systemic risk to the economy, our standard of living, and our liberty.
  • The latest case in point is the European government debt crisis, with Greece once again running out of money and threatening to trigger yet another financial crisis.  The government’s debt now totals more than 150% of its GDP, and continues to grow.  Last year’s bailout by other European governments was supposed to give it the time needed to reduce its budget deficits so that next year Greece could roll over its maturing debts, as well as finance additional deficits at interest rates under 6%. However, the government’s austerity plan of tax increases and budget cuts has not reduced current or projected government deficits because the economy in 2010 contracted by 4.5% and the unemployment rate jumped to 15%.
  • Normally, this would be a matter between a debtor and its creditors. However, European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board Member Juergen Stark warns that the effects of restructuring “could overshadow the effects of the Lehman bankruptcy,” which is associated with the beginning of the 2008 financial crisis.
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  • In the case of Greece, government actions and regulations also lie at the heart of what threatens to be a European financial crisis.
  • This risk is amplified by special rules created by politicians that encourage banks to lend freely to governments.
  • Here’s how it works. Governments require banks to hold capital against the loans that they make, anticipating that in the normal course of business, some of the loans will not be repaid.  The riskier the loan, the more capital that needs to be held in reserve. However, under international rules negotiated by government representatives through the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), government loans fit into a special category that has a 0% risk requirement.  That means European banks do not have to hold any reserves against loans they make to European governments.  That’s right, politicians implicitly promised banks that governments would never default.  And, given the opportunity to make “risk free” loans that require no capital commitment, bankers purchased mountains of government debt.
Susan Cui

Bad housing advice of the day, Philly edition | Felix Salmon - 4 views

  • house prices are falling, gold prices are rising, and therefore before you go ahead and buy a house, you should probably consider whether you’d be better off buying gold instead.
  • house prices are falling, gold prices are rising, and therefore before you go ahead and buy a house, you should probably consider whether you’d be better off buying gold instead.
  • homes are not an investment, they’re more of a consumption good.
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  • Maybe you’ve saved enough for a down payment. But should you bet your money on home prices, even with a tempting low-interest, fixed-rate mortgage? Or is it financially smarter to continue renting and invest the money in an asset that could appreciate for at least another few years?
  • Being “financially smart” is not the same as investing in whichever asset gives you the highest return over some given time horizon.
  • Essentially, Arvedlund is proposing an exotic relative-value trade here: she’s saying that houses will underperform gold, or that the price of a house in gold is going to go down rather than up.
  • the price of a house in gold has gone down, and you would have been financially better off buying gold than taking that money and using it as a down-payment for a house.
Peter Shishkov

The gas-price debate - 0 views

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    Neither the Republicans' nor the Democrats' policy proposals have much chance of having a significant effect on prices. Your taxis and town cars and commutes are not going to be made any cheaper-at least in the near-term-by ending oil company subsidies or drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge There isn't much that politicians can do to lower gas prices, but there is some good news for politicians panicked about the potential effect of high gas prices on their re-election chances.
dani tav

Wonkbook: Debt limit vote, part I - Ezra Klein - The Washington Post - 1 views

  • a proposal Tuesday that would increase the nation’s ability to borrow money without also making major cuts in federal spending
  • initial request that the nation’s $14.3 trillion debt ceiling be lifted without any accompanying spending reductions
  • politically impossible.
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  • o get my vote on the debt ceiling..Medicare will be a part of it
  • argued against using $80 billion in taxpayer dollars to try to save General Motors Co., Chrysler and many of their suppliers."
  • economy
  • he ownership rate is now back to the level of 1998, and some housing experts say it could decline to the level of the 1980s or even earlier
  • Cutting tax breaks for retirement won't raise a lot of money;
  • economists largely predicted the U.S. recovery would ramp back up as short-term disruptions such as higher gas prices, bad weather and supply problems in Japan subsided
  • medical school free
Kevin Yeo

AmericanEconomicAlert.org Blog Network - 0 views

  • The rise in the oil deficit did indeed greatly outpace the rise in the overall deficit for March – 22.78 percent versus 6.03 percent.  But the increase in the deficit for high-tech products also surged – by 17.00 percent.  And the manufacturing deficit grew by 6.24 percent.
  • In March alone, U.S. exports of high tech products jumped by 20.26 percent (from $21.01 billion to $25.27 billion), while manufactures exports overall rose even faster – by 21.57 percent (from $71.56 billion to $86.99 billion).  
  • But deficits in these sectors kept increasing because their much larger import levels rose robustly, too.  Meanwhile, for the first quarter of this year, the overall trade deficit is running  23.46 percent ahead of last year’s comparable total – which in turn was up 25.91 percent from the first quarter 2009 number.
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  • Bottom line: Despite genuinely booming imports, trade flows still kept dragging down America’s growth and employment performance, and still kept boosting the country’s debt burden.  Do these trends really deserve the label “recovery”?
John wang

Low university tuition benefits the rich not the poor: book - Report Card - 0 views

  • benefit the rich more than the poor.
  • require them and governments to help students from low-income families with grants, bursaries and loans.
  • most likely to benefit from registered education savings plans
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  • tax transfers to the upper-middle class
  • $400 a year
  • tuition fees as tax deductions
  • denies universities the tuition money that they need
Carolyne Wang

Inequality Rising Across the Developed World - NYTimes.com - 0 views

  • A new report from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development finds that most of its member countries have seen their richest citizens get much, much richer in the last few decades, leading to a widening income gap.
    • Carolyne Wang
       
      This graph shows that the Gini coefficients of most countries have increased, indicating increasing income inequality in the world as the value of the Gini coefficient approaches 1, which represents perfect income inequality.
  • Changes in capital income — which primarily affects wealthier people — have contributed to rising inequality, although the impact has been relatively modest when compared to changes in labor income
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  • As lower-paid workers have seen their incomes stagnate or even fall, the highest-paid workers have gotten steep raises.
    • Carolyne Wang
       
      In this graph, you can see that there is a greater reduction in the number of hours worked by low income earners compared to the hours worked by high income earners. Fewer work hours combined with low wages leads to lower incomes for the poor and widens the divide between the rich and the poor.
  • Globalization has had an impact, as rich countries have been sending more of their commodifiable, generally less-skilled jobs offshore, which has displaced many lower-paid workers in rich countries.
  • Besides outright layoffs, there have also been cuts in work hours (sometimes voluntary, sometimes not), disproportionately affecting lower-paid employees:
  • Today, across developed countries, the average income of the richest 10 percent of the population is about nine times that of the poorest 10 percent, with much bigger multiples in Israel, Turkey, the United States, Chile and Mexico. In these last two countries, the income ratio is 27 to 1.
  • Technological improvements have also disproportionately benefited the pay of high-skilled workers. Regulatory changes, like loosening protections for temporary (and less-skilled) workers and lower unemployment benefits, may have also had an effect.
  • Over the years people have become more and more likely to marry mates who have similar incomes. “Today, 40 percent of couples in which both partners work belong to the same or neighboring earnings deciles, compared with 33 percent some 20 years ago,” the report says.
  • Surely to some extent this has to do with more women having earnings, period, and therefore having more women’s earning matching what their husbands make. But in any case if poor marry poor and rich marry rich, that magnifies the income gap effect. After all, if poor married rich, the result would be more evenly distributed wealth.
Mike Seo

Canadian pork export market threatened - Community News Blog - 3 views

  • The president of Canada Pork International warns the lack of a Canada-South Korea free trade agreement threatens to cost Canada a pork export market worth over 100 million dollars a year.
  • Representatives of the Canadian pork industry have asked Prime Minister Stephen Harper to become directly involved in getting free trade discussions back on track.
  • Canada pork International president Jacques Pomerleau says Canada’s trading partners in South Korea have warned, without a free trade agreement, Canada will be out of that market within two years.
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  • We have to remember that Korea is a very price sensitive market and the fact that there’s no plan for Canada to have a free trade agreement.
Linda Lei

A warning for Canadian consumers, household debt could spark 'made in Canada' recession... - 1 views

  • “One scenario is that interest rates rise, house prices drop, and more people begin defaulting on their credit card debt and mortgage obligations. An equally worrying – and perhaps more likely scenario – is that interest rates go up a little, and more of people’s disposable income goes to repaying their debt, leading to a significant reduction in consumer spending. Since personal spending on consumer goods and services accounts for 58 per cent of the Canadian gross domestic product, this decrease would provoke a ‘made in Canada’ recession.”
  • Total household debt in Canada now tops $1.5-trillion, or three times the national debt, MIT said in a statement outlining the paper by Mr. Dunfield and his colleagues in the Action Canada fellowship. That means that while Mr. Flaherty is being fiscally responsible, many of us may not be following suit.
  • “Canada has also avoided the wide regional performance differences seen in the U.S., where states such as Nevada, California and Florida suffered significantly larger declines than the nation overall,” Mr. Goldin added. “In Canada, house prices in Calgary and Vancouver fell further than those across the nation, but the variance was relatively minor by comparison
dylan huber

Does Income Inequality Help Cause Financial Crises? « naked capitalism - 0 views

  • high levels of income inequality stoke financial crises
  • Richard B. Freeman, an economist at Harvard, is comparing about 125 financial crises around the globe that occurred over the last 30 years. He said inequality soared before many of these crises.
  • ncome inequality is either a symptom of conditions that can produce bank crises (like excessive financailization of an economy) or a secondary contributor.
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  • large scale international capital flows would be associated with the prominence of large international ventures which again could distribute a lot of winnings to a comparatively small (in societal terms) number of beneficiaries.
dylan huber

Income inequality | The Economist - 0 views

  • Despite a quarter century during which incomes have drifted ever farther apart, the distribution of wealth has remained remarkably stable. The richest Americans now earn as big a share of overall income as they did a century ago, but their share of overall wealth is much lower. Indeed, it has barely budged in the few past decades.
  • distribution of wealth has remained remarkably stable. The richest Americans now earn as big a share of overall income as they did a century ago, but their share of overall wealth is much lower. Indeed, it has barely budged in the few past decades.
  • Productivity and globalisation have caused real income to rise much faster for those at the top of the income distribution than it has for the poor and middle class. High earners experienced more than a 30% increase in their real income over the last thirty years. Meanwhile, the bottom 50% of wage earners saw their real income increased by only 5-10%.
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  • Whether these shifts were good or bad depends on your political persuasion. Those on the left lament the gaps, often forgetting that the greater income disparities have created bigger incentives to get an education, which has led to a better trained, more productive workforce. The share of American workers with a college degree, 20% in 1980, is over 30% today.
  • the focus should be on giving everyone a an equal chance to be successful. This might mean making the tax code less regressive by expanding the earned income tax credit, eliminating tax subsidies to the rich, and improving access to quality education. 
Linda Lei

Consumer debt and home equity | Direct Talk with Peter Aceto - 0 views

  • Here are some facts. In this low interest rate environment, Canadians’ debt levels – including credit cards, loans and mortgages – have grown much faster than their incomes. Debt levels are now about one and a half times disposable income, an even higher level than the debt-to-income levels of Americans. Total consumer debt in Canada now exceeds a staggering $1.4 trillion. The Bank of Canada and the Finance Department have expressed concern about personal debt, specifically about what would happen if interest rates were to rise and Canadians discovered they could not afford to be carrying these debt levels.
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