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alex yesikov

Could Greece be the next Lehman Brothers? Yes - and potentially even worse | Larry Elli... - 0 views

  • It was less than three years ago that the failure of Lehman Brothers sent tremors through the global financial system, threatening the existence of every major bank and triggering the most severe economic crisis since the Great Depression. As Europe's policy elite met for fresh crisis talks today, the dark fear that haunted everyone around the table was this: if the bankruptcy of a middling-sized Wall Street investment bank with no retail customers could have such dire consequences, what would happen if the Greeks decide they have had enough and renege on their debts?
  • Could Greece, in other words, be the new Lehmans? Given the structure of modern financial markets, with their chains of derivative trades and their pyramids of debt, there is only one answer. Greece could certainly be the next Lehmans. The likelihood that a Greek default would pose a threat to the future of the eurozone as well as to the health of the world economy means it has the potential to be worse than Lehmans. Much worse.
  • To be fair, it's a tough one. A single currency that involved a hard core of European countries that were broadly similar in terms of economic development and industrial structure might just have worked. Bolting together a group of 17 disparate economies with different levels of productivity growth, different languages and different business cultures was an accident waiting to happen, and so it has proved.
alex yesikov

Governments Are The Primary Creators Of Systemic Risk - Charles Kadlec - Community of L... - 2 views

  • The greatest lesson of the still young 21st century is proving to be that governments are the primary source of systemic risk to the economy, our standard of living, and our liberty.
  • The latest case in point is the European government debt crisis, with Greece once again running out of money and threatening to trigger yet another financial crisis.  The government’s debt now totals more than 150% of its GDP, and continues to grow.  Last year’s bailout by other European governments was supposed to give it the time needed to reduce its budget deficits so that next year Greece could roll over its maturing debts, as well as finance additional deficits at interest rates under 6%. However, the government’s austerity plan of tax increases and budget cuts has not reduced current or projected government deficits because the economy in 2010 contracted by 4.5% and the unemployment rate jumped to 15%.
  • Normally, this would be a matter between a debtor and its creditors. However, European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board Member Juergen Stark warns that the effects of restructuring “could overshadow the effects of the Lehman bankruptcy,” which is associated with the beginning of the 2008 financial crisis.
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  • In the case of Greece, government actions and regulations also lie at the heart of what threatens to be a European financial crisis.
  • This risk is amplified by special rules created by politicians that encourage banks to lend freely to governments.
  • Here’s how it works. Governments require banks to hold capital against the loans that they make, anticipating that in the normal course of business, some of the loans will not be repaid.  The riskier the loan, the more capital that needs to be held in reserve. However, under international rules negotiated by government representatives through the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), government loans fit into a special category that has a 0% risk requirement.  That means European banks do not have to hold any reserves against loans they make to European governments.  That’s right, politicians implicitly promised banks that governments would never default.  And, given the opportunity to make “risk free” loans that require no capital commitment, bankers purchased mountains of government debt.
ngodup yaklha

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/greece-prepares-for-asset-fire-sale/a... - 0 views

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    Greece's first privatization effort was launched in the early 1990s under Stefanos Manos, who was minister of economy and finance at the time. Before he lost his job in 1993, the telecom industry deregulation was well under way and public-private partnerships were put in place. Later, banking was deregulated to some degree. But then the political will to keep going evaporated and the deregulation and privatization processes pretty much stopped. Mr. Mitsopoulos says the biggest potential obstacle to the success of the privatization program is a dragged-out process. Fast sales would do two things, he said. It would collect a lot of money quickly, which could be used to pay down debt, and it would deliver the message that Greece is finally serious about making its economy competitive. "All these state investments are burdens on the government," he said. "Privatizations will deliver productivity gains and they can be transformed into tax-paying entities." Privatizations are expected to pick up pace across the EU, as countries with budgets deficits above the 3-per-cent EU limit look for quick debt fixes in the absence of strong GDP growth. The Loterias privatization in Spain is expected to raise about €10-billion, valuing the company at as much as €25-billion, making it the second-largest gaming company in the world, behind casino manager Las Vegas Sands.
Ms Cuttle

IMF sounds alarm for Greece - The Globe and Mail - 3 views

  • some form of restructuring might be required to ease Greece’s debt burden, which at 150 per cent of annual output is among the highest in the world.
Peter Shishkov

Commodity prices rise amid economic turbulence - 0 views

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    Lately, oil price is extremely volatile due to disappointing economic data from the US and eurozone, uncertainty about a potential debt-restructure in Greece and weaker oil demand from the US, China and Japan. Gasoline demand is expected however to pick up in the coming weeks as Americans take to the road for their summer holidays. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) or light sweet crude for July climbed to $100.35 a barrel from $97.41. Gold and Silver remain to be the safest investments during problematic economic times. As a result the precious metals have increased in price: on the London Bullion Market, gold jumped to $1,533 an ounce from $1,491 the previous week; Silver rose to $37.69 an ounce from $34.80.
alex yesikov

Collapsing Political Support Threatens Euro; Systemic Risk Threatens World Markets - Se... - 0 views

  • Per a Reuters article Wednesday, EU banks are stuck with over 100 bln euros of Greek government debt they’re unable to sell, hedge or ignore. However the ECB is in the same situation, and holds so much Greek debt that a default would mean the ECB would need a bailout.
  • Thus the banks, at least the big ones, can do nothing but hope that when the default comes, be it full or partial, they will be bailout out along with the ECB as an unavoidable step to maintaining economic stability in the EU.
  • No one wants to buy the bonds even at record low prices, and insuring the debt is too expensive to be worthwhile.
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  • That will mean, one way or another: Lots of money printing, a falling EUR and thus likely a rising USD
ngodup yaklha

Greece readies for asset fire sale - 0 views

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    Mass privatizations have emerged as one of the main conditions for the next instalment of Greece's €110-billion bailout package, received a year ago, when the country hit the debt wall and was unable to fund itself. If the privatizations proceed, the EU might also agree to some other goodies, such as trimming the interest rates on Greece's bailout loans, or extending their maturities. Greece's first privatization effort was launched in the early 1990s under Stefanos Manos, who was minister of economy and finance at the time. Before he lost his job in 1993, the telecom industry deregulation was well under way and public-private partnerships were put in place. Later, banking was deregulated to some degree. But then the political will to keep going evaporated and the deregulation and privatization processes pretty much stopped.
ngodup yaklha

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/eu-grapples-with-greek-crisis... - 0 views

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    The second was failure to deal with its huge structural costs, the result of excessive government hiring and lack of deregulation. Stefanos Manos, the retired politician who was minister of economy and finance in the early 1990s, launched Greece's deregulation and privatization process. Before he lost his job in 1993, the telecom industry deregulation was well under way and public-private partnerships were put in place. Later, banking was deregulated to some degree. But then the political will to keep going evaporated and the deregulation process pretty much stopped. By last year, Greece's debt as a percentage of GDP was about 112 per cent, more than double that of Spain (another ailing euro zone country) while its budget deficit reached 12.7 per cent of GDP, the EU's highest. The spectre of Greece going bust sent Greek bond yields soaring last week, sending the euro in the opposite direction.
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