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Steven Iarusci

Ottawa resale market to cool in 2011; sales to fall 8%: CMHC - Residential - Real Estat... - 0 views

  • local sales of existing homes listed on the Multiple Listing Service are anticipated to fall to an estimated 13,750 units from 14,923 in 2010, a 7.9-per-cent drop, before picking up again to approximately 14,100 units in 2012.
  • Higher anticipated mortgage rates have resulted in a pull-forward effect on housing demand
  • sales were higher in late 2010 and early 2011 as buyers rushed to avoid rising interest rates and new mortgage rule changes
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  • still at historic lows, moderate raises in mortgage rates will impact carrying costs negatively, thus slightly subduing housing demand
  • Average resale prices are expected to rise by a brisk 11.5 per cent to $340,000 this year, but the growth rate will slow significantly in 2012, to 2.9 per cent
  • that segment falling 20.1 per cent to 1,975 units
  • 5,950 total housing starts forecast for 2011, up 2.3 per cent from the previous year
  • single-detached market is anticipated to be the hardest-hit
  • result of an ongoing shift towards more affordable housing types
  • New home construction is also expected to cool down this year
  • first-time homebuyers and downsizing empty-nesters at the forefront of Ottawa's housing market
  • raising the popularity of more affordable housing types such as condominium apartments, townhouses and semi-detached homes
  • soaring gas prices and lengthening commute times will push up interest in homes in the core
  • Elsewhere in the country
  • MLS sales, meanwhile, are expected to be between 429,500 and 480,000 units, with 2012 sales anticipated to be in the range of 410,000 to 511,900 units
  • slowdown affecting both single-detached homes and multi-family housing
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    A few numbers pertaining to supply of housing in the Ottawa market. Talks a little of why demand is changing in the market.
Alexei Goudzenko

China, not U.S., key to global oil demand - The Globe and Mail - 0 views

  • But as the U.S. continues to pare back its oil consumption, other economies will seek a bigger share of the pie from a near static world oil supply. With power shortages spreading in China and Japan, as well as India and Pakistan, demand for diesel fuel is soaring in power-starved Asia.
  • With little, if any usable excess capacity in OPEC, world crude demand is already on the verge of outpacing world supply. In the resulting zero sum world, conflicting trends in oil consumption between the world’s two largest oil consumers, the U.S. and China, will not be the exception but the norm.
  • If the Chinese economy is going to continue to increase its oil consumption by 10 per cent a year, another economy will have to cut back its oil consumption by a comparable amount to make room for the increase in Chinese demand. More and more, that place looks like America.
naheekim

Housing prices to drop 25%, forecaster predicts - thestar.com - 2 views

  • House prices in Canada will fall over the next several years by as much as 25 per cent, creating a massive impact on the economy and possibly pushing the country into recession, says a forecast
  • predicting house prices will fall by a cumulative 25 per cent over the next several years
  •  Madani says the effects on consumer spending and housing investment could be significant and perhaps strong enough to “push the economy into another recession
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  • “If house prices are to fall, there needs to be a mechanism — an excess of supply relative to demand,”
  • Last year, the Canadian Real Estate Association modified its forecasts at least four times. After initially predicting housing prices would increase in 2011, it now says prices will fall by 1.3 per cent — far below the eye-catching 25 per cent forecast by Capital Economics.
  • Financial agencies such as the Canadian Mortgage Housing Corporation, which provides mortgage loan insurance, could also be exposed to significant losses
  • The Capital Economics forecast is not the first to predict a bubble in the Canadian market. Gluskin Sheff & Associates chief economist David Rosenberg has also predicted a 25 per cent drop in Canadian housing prices, as has The Economist magazine.
  • As in the U.S., financial innovation and very low interest rates have allowed Canadian consumers to take on more debt, and house prices are high relative to income
  • However, consumers have remained complacent because low rates are keeping mortgage payments low.
  • The historical home price-to-income ratio is 3.5, but now it's hovering around the 5.5 mark, meaning average house prices are more than five times the income of workers
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    The economists and forcasters are predicting that housing prices will decrease over the next several years by 25%.
dani tav

Wonkbook: Debt limit vote, part I - Ezra Klein - The Washington Post - 1 views

  • a proposal Tuesday that would increase the nation’s ability to borrow money without also making major cuts in federal spending
  • initial request that the nation’s $14.3 trillion debt ceiling be lifted without any accompanying spending reductions
  • politically impossible.
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  • o get my vote on the debt ceiling..Medicare will be a part of it
  • argued against using $80 billion in taxpayer dollars to try to save General Motors Co., Chrysler and many of their suppliers."
  • economists largely predicted the U.S. recovery would ramp back up as short-term disruptions such as higher gas prices, bad weather and supply problems in Japan subsided
  • he ownership rate is now back to the level of 1998, and some housing experts say it could decline to the level of the 1980s or even earlier
  • Cutting tax breaks for retirement won't raise a lot of money;
  • economy
  • medical school free
Heshani Makalande

Canadians to get rate hike reprieve - Moneyville.ca - 0 views

  • The Bank of Canada is widely expected to leave its key benchmark interest rate unchanged next Tuesday — and may even sit on the sidelines until September, economists say
  • Even if the central bank leaves its overnight rate unchanged at 1 per cent next week, it’s likely to again warn consumers that the clock is ticking: interest rates will be going up; it’s just a matter of when.
  • “One per cent is not normal. Everybody realizes that. Rates will go up,”
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  • Late last year, and even at the beginning of 2011, economists were certain that the Bank of Canada would start increasing its overnight rate this spring. That was pushed to the summer amid continuing worries about the health of the U.S. economy.
  • Now more economists are expecting that the central bank will take a pass at its July policy meeting as well, and begin raising rates in the fall.
  • The central bank is nervously contemplating the continuing European debt restructuring, attempts by China to tame inflation, the impact that will have on commodity prices, and the still-fragile recovery in the U.S.
  • In particular, the U.S. may be susceptible to supply chain disruptions as a result of the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, and the resulting nuclear disaster
  • “The second quarter didn’t start well and the earthquake will weigh on the rest of the quarter. For now Q2 is not looking that great, and when the U.S. doesn’t do well, it affects Canada as well,” Rangasamy said.
  • In Canada, the economy is still expected to expand by a healthy 3.2 per cent in 2011 and 3.1 per cent in 2012, according to the Royal Bank of Canada. Inflation also remains tame, thanks in part to a buoyant loonie.
  • The central bank has been anxious to raise interest rates in order to keep a lid on household debt, which has reached record levels in Canada.
Molly Fraser

Wikileaks: Saudis Warned About Oil Speculators in 2007 and 2008 - 2 views

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    Kevin Hall of McClatchy wrote about Wikileaks releases showing that the Saudis were concerned about oil market speculation leading to unduly high prices in 2007 and 2008. In 2008, we wrote that the Saudis said they did not see tightness in the market, and they also warned that prices were excessive.
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    It was quite frustrating in 2008 to see economics commentators reject statements by numerous oil market participants that supplies were more than adequate, that the price rise was driven by speculators.
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    The wikileaks releases confirm the fact that the Saudis were not attempting to shift the blame to speculators while privately enjoying profit, but were genuinely concerned over the effect that speculators had on spiking market prices. 2007/2008 saw a jump in oil prices that was unprecedented at the time; in 2007 alone, the price of oil was $58.74/Bbl in February, reaching $65.08/Bbl by June of the same year.
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    Ultimately this merely reaffirms anxieties that oil prices are likely at the whim of speculators rather than actual market availability. Unfortunately, markets are partially based on faith in one's investments; It would be wise in the future to trust the Saudi reports and take into consideration that everyone in the worldwide oil market- including western businesses- are in it for the money.
Molly Fraser

Japan auto production plunges in april after quake, tsunami - 1 views

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    Toyota Motor Corp. reported Friday that Japan production in April fell 74.5 per cent to 79,341 vehicles while its global production declined 48 per cent to 346,297 vehicles.
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    Japanese automakers have been forced to reduce production amid parts shortages. The magnitude-9.0 earthquake and ensuing tsunami devastated huge areas in northeastern Japan, home to auto parts manufacturers.
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    Auto production works in a unique method in that different factories produce different parts, and oftentimes supply is exclusive to a few choice factories. This causes significant problems when there is a sudden rise in demand for these parts, or if production must be halted, as was the case with the 2011 Japanese Earthquake.
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    Japanese Auto Dealers sell around 9,000 models per month in Canada alone; Honda's production has fallen 81%, producing 14,168 vehicles in April 2011.
Molly Fraser

Pricey oil fuelling dirtier projects - 3 views

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    It has often been said that even without a price on carbon there will be a meaningful shift to renewable energy sources once global oil supply peaks.
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    So, has there been a mad rush to invest in cleaner, relatively more affordable alternatives to oil? Not really - it's been more like a casual stroll, even though such alternatives are highly competitive with oil above $100 (U.S.) a barrel.
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    Roberts is vice-chairman of renewable energy investments within CIBC's wholesale banking group. He says the big petroleum companies are making some investments in green energy, such a solar, wind and biofuels, but it's a "drop in the bucket" compared to the money being spent on the exploration, drilling and extraction of unconventional - i.e. heavy - oil.
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    Until there is a meaningful price on carbon in North America and China, oil companies will continue along this path. They'll go further, deeper and thicker. They'll take on more financial risk and take more chances with the environment. They'll scrape the bottom of the barrel, and they'll make generous profits doing it.
Alexei Goudzenko

A bold national energy plan can benefit the provinces - The Globe and Mail - 0 views

  • Canada would benefit just as much from the creation of a national electricity grid as it did from the development of the railway and the pipeline. As a nation-building effort, developing these grid connections would give provinces options to buy and sell power of all stripes. Unlike crude oil, it is a consumer product that can be used everywhere, and Canadian supplies of electricity are increasingly renewable in form. Such a project would increase the renewable power potential for Alberta and Saskatchewan by linking existing and future hydro development in Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba and British Columbia to these markets. While the distances here are excessive, the challenge is not insurmountable.
  • Many Canadians may not realize this, but most of Canada’s long-distance, high-capacity connections for oil and electricity run north-south, not east-west. In these key industries, we have focused almost exclusively on serving the U.S. This is one of the great strengths of our nation -- the ability of each province to create its own best strategy for developing revenue streams. It’s also a weakness, because lack of access to other provincial markets has effectively siloed our energy strategies along provincial lines, leading to a patchwork of development across the country that does not take advantage of potential synergies across regions.
Alexei Goudzenko

Japan's Tea Industry Facing Shortage as Nuclear Radiation Taints Shipments - Bloomberg - 0 views

  • Japan may face a shortage of green tea as radiation leaking from the crippled Fukushima Dai-Ichi power station tainted leaves, spurring the government to restrict shipments from four prefectures.
  • The government decided yesterday to curb shipments of dried tea leaves containing more than 500 becquerel per kilogram of radioactive cesium and ordered a halt in shipments from the eastern prefectures of Ibaraki, Chiba, Kanagawa and Tochigi where tainted produce was detected. Japan’s tea production, including fresh and dried leaves, was worth 102.1 billion yen ($1.3 billion) in 2009, according to the agriculture ministry.
  • The decision came after Shizuoka prefecture, Japan’s largest growing region representing about 40 percent of total output, declared its green tea was safe. Governor Heita Kawakatsu said last month tests on fresh leaves and drinks showed they contained cesium amounts well below the government levels. Still, cesium levels in dried leaves could be about five times higher than fresh leaves, said Yasuo Sasaki, senior press counselor at the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries.
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  • “The new regulation may spur shipment restrictions from Shizuoka prefecture, slashing supplies and boosting prices of green teas,” Sasaki said today in a telephone interview. “Higher prices could spur consumers to shift from green tea to cheaper alternatives such as barley tea or oolong tea.”
  • Drink makers such as Ito En Ltd. (2593) purchase Japanese green tea as a raw material. The company’s shares lost 2.6 percent to 1,370 yen today on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.
Chris Li

Will export restrictions on energy echo those on food? - The Globe and Mail - 2 views

  • Instead of soaring food and energy prices encouraging food and energy producers to export more, they may export less and divert more of their output to domestic markets. The reason is simple: to keep domestic prices from matching soaring world prices.
  • But when it is food and energy prices, the political pressures become immense. They are so immense you can toss your economics textbook out the window.
  • Instead, no less than 29 food-exporting countries responded by banning food exports and kept their crop production for a hungry domestic market.
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  • And food-importing countries that secured supplies, quickly started to hoard them in anticipation that more food exporters would decide to keep their crops at home.
  • “to maintain social stability and promote economic development”.
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