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Home/ Economic Challenges Research/ Contents contributed and discussions participated by Steven Iarusci

Contents contributed and discussions participated by Steven Iarusci

Steven Iarusci

Consumer fatigue an ominous sign for economy - The Globe and Mail - 1 views

  • Consumers typically account for 60 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product, and rising living costs along with elevated debt levels suggest they won’t be much help this year
  • Gross domestic product expanded at an annualized 3.9 per cent in the first quarter, the fastest pace in a year, led by business investment and manufacturing, Statistics Canada said
  • that pace will be cut by almost half in the second quarter, while Finance Minister Jim Flaherty told reporters Monday he’s anticipating “more modest” growth in the rest of the year
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  • In the near term, households are under pressure as rising food and energy costs cut into their budgets
  • “I will never, never do that again. I want to have the money up front before I buy something, because I don’t want to get into that trouble again,” said Ms. Thornton
  • In the longer term, high debt levels could restrain spending for years
  • Kim Thornton, for example, is one fatigued consumer. The mother of four says her family ran up about $50,000 in debt in prior years on credit card spending
  • the household debt service ratio – debt payments to disposable income – jumped to a three-year high of 7.8 per cent from 7.2 per cent
  • Canadians are getting the message about whittling down debt, and that is translating into fewer purchases of discretionary goods
  • reduced hours and leaner wages – a legacy from the recession – mean many families have less money with which to service their debt, he added
Steven Iarusci

Canadians load up on mortgages, cut card debt - 0 views

  • The bank set aside $145million in provisions for credit losses, down $104-million as more customers repaid their loans.
    • Steven Iarusci
       
      BMO is the bank in question.
  • consumer credit-card balances are declining as bank customers start to heed warnings about taking on too much debt
  • On the residential mortgage side, Mr. Downe said he expects to see growth start to "soften" in the coming months
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  • record household debt levels have left this country vulnerable to economic shocks
  • the Canadian banks will report a slight increase in profit for the quarter as they contend with the impact of declining consumer borrowing, moderating capital markets activity and other headwinds.
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  • With domestic household debt levels hovering close to where they were in the United States prior to the financial crisis, many observers are warning that Canadians need to start paying down debt if the economy is remain on level footing
  • anadian consumers continue to pile on mortgage debt despite repeated warnings that they need to crank back on borrowing if this country is to avoid a painful real estate correction
  • Canadian consumers continue to pile on mortgage debt despite repeated warnings that they need to crank back on borrowing if this country is to avoid a painful real estate correction
  • growth in the overall home loan market "is continuing to be more robust,"
  • Canada's fourth-largest lender on Wednesday kicked off second-quarter bank earnings season with a 7.5% increase in profit on the back of lower provisions for bad loans
Steven Iarusci

Report cautions that over-indebted consumers can't drive economy - 0 views

  • a rate hike may come in the fall
    • Steven Iarusci
       
      Interest rates
  • the main message is that consumers cannot be the main engines of economic growth over the next couple of years,” the authors conclude. “Instead, the economy will have to rely on other sources of growth, such as exports and business investment.”
  • Canadians have “eased off the debt-accumulation throttle,”
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  • still net borrowers, meaning they borrow more than they save
  • consumer spending will not be the engine of economic growth in the coming quarters and the inevitable future rebalancing of monetary policy will be a shock to many households
  • some of the drop in household indebtedness is explained by strong income gains, not by debt repayment per se
  • sustainable personal growth is likely in a range of 4.0-4.5 per cent. Credit continues to grow at a pace that is two percentage points above that
  • the level of Canadian household debt — which in December officially surpassed those of our neighbours to the south — is unsustainable
  • total consumer debt load is reported to be about $1.5 trillion
  • Data released late last year suggested Canadians owed on average $112,000 — a figure that includes all kinds of debt, including mortgages — and a debt-to-income ratio of 150 per cent means they were spending $1,500 for every $1,000 in take-home pay
  • Factors that will moderate credit growth over the short term include spending fatigue, a soft landing in the housing market, stricter mortgage rules and Canadians preparing for the higher interest rates that are sure to come as the economy recovers.
Steven Iarusci

The Canadian Press: Canadian borrowing grows 4.5 per cent in first quarter from year ago - 0 views

  • Canadians' average non-mortgage debt grew 4.5 per cent to $25,597 in the first quarter compared to a year earlier, signalling that consumers aren't necessarily clamping down on borrowing even as they rein in spending.
  • Total debt per consumer, including credit cards, car loans and lines of credit but excluding mortgages, was up from $24,497 in the same quarter of 2010,
  • most in Quebec and Newfoundland and Labrador, with debt rising by 7.8 per cent in both provinces, while British Columbians had the highest average consumer debt at $36,649
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  • consumer debt rose in all provinces
  • the trend still remains modest compared to the double-digit, pre-recession levels
  • Average credit card debt
  • sign of troubled credit health, the national credit card delinquency rate — the ratio of credit card accounts that are 90 days or more overdue — grew 11 per cent from the first quarter of 2010.
  • consumers are focused on consolidating debt after borrowing heavily during the recession
  • Lines of credit are the most popular form of consumer debt
  • more than 41 per cent of outstanding debt at the end of the first quarter
  • consumers should take care to rein in their borrowing
  • consumer spending slowed during the first quarter, to just 0.1 per cent growth
  • average borrower debt on auto loans was also up in the quarter — by 12.4 per cent to $16,189 from $14,402 in the first quarter of 2010
  • higher energy and particularly gasoline prices are taking a bigger bite out of household budgets, leaving less for other forms of expenditures
  • high levels of indebtedness are expected to weigh down purchases going forward
Steven Iarusci

Ottawa resale market to cool in 2011; sales to fall 8%: CMHC - Residential - Real Estat... - 0 views

  • local sales of existing homes listed on the Multiple Listing Service are anticipated to fall to an estimated 13,750 units from 14,923 in 2010, a 7.9-per-cent drop, before picking up again to approximately 14,100 units in 2012.
  • Higher anticipated mortgage rates have resulted in a pull-forward effect on housing demand
  • sales were higher in late 2010 and early 2011 as buyers rushed to avoid rising interest rates and new mortgage rule changes
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  • still at historic lows, moderate raises in mortgage rates will impact carrying costs negatively, thus slightly subduing housing demand
  • Average resale prices are expected to rise by a brisk 11.5 per cent to $340,000 this year, but the growth rate will slow significantly in 2012, to 2.9 per cent
  • that segment falling 20.1 per cent to 1,975 units
  • 5,950 total housing starts forecast for 2011, up 2.3 per cent from the previous year
  • single-detached market is anticipated to be the hardest-hit
  • result of an ongoing shift towards more affordable housing types
  • New home construction is also expected to cool down this year
  • first-time homebuyers and downsizing empty-nesters at the forefront of Ottawa's housing market
  • raising the popularity of more affordable housing types such as condominium apartments, townhouses and semi-detached homes
  • soaring gas prices and lengthening commute times will push up interest in homes in the core
  • Elsewhere in the country
  • MLS sales, meanwhile, are expected to be between 429,500 and 480,000 units, with 2012 sales anticipated to be in the range of 410,000 to 511,900 units
  • slowdown affecting both single-detached homes and multi-family housing
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    A few numbers pertaining to supply of housing in the Ottawa market. Talks a little of why demand is changing in the market.
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