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Lok-Hin Yuen

CIBC World Markets - Press Releases - 1 views

micro.newswire.ca/release.cgi

Jobs Manufacturing Sector Competition Post-Recession

shared by Lok-Hin Yuen on 03 Jun 11 - No Cached
  • Canadian companies facing stiff competition from better-capitalized, more efficient facilities stateside
  • The economic recovery will add more manufacturing jobs in Canada relative to the U.S., but the gains may be shortlived amid stiffening competition south of the border
  • the improvement in the U.S. is not only stronger, but also much more capital intensive - a trend that will hinder Canada's competitive position in the post recession economy
  • ...4 more annotations...
  • "radical restructuring" of industry, Mr. Tal says, where "much more is being produced with less labour."
  • In Canada, where overall industrial production has stabilized in recent quarters, manufacturing activity in capital intensive sectors has also outpaced activity in labour intensive sectors, though to a lesser degree than in the U.S
  • Examples include Canada's chemical, electronics and computer manufacturing sectors that still utilize a much lower capital-to-labour ratio than in the U.S.
  • The high labour intensity of Canadian manufacturing means that jobs growth here will be relatively stronger during the economic recovery to meet demand, even with a strong Canadian dollar. "However, given the increased prevalence of better-capitalized and more efficient production facilities stateside, Canadian manufacturers will find it even more difficult to compete when the dust settles."
alex yesikov

Governments Are The Primary Creators Of Systemic Risk - Charles Kadlec - Community of L... - 2 views

blogs.forbes.com/...mary-creators-of-systemic-risk

Greece Systemic Risk Blog Resession Euro

shared by alex yesikov on 30 May 11 - No Cached
  • The greatest lesson of the still young 21st century is proving to be that governments are the primary source of systemic risk to the economy, our standard of living, and our liberty.
  • The latest case in point is the European government debt crisis, with Greece once again running out of money and threatening to trigger yet another financial crisis.  The government’s debt now totals more than 150% of its GDP, and continues to grow.  Last year’s bailout by other European governments was supposed to give it the time needed to reduce its budget deficits so that next year Greece could roll over its maturing debts, as well as finance additional deficits at interest rates under 6%. However, the government’s austerity plan of tax increases and budget cuts has not reduced current or projected government deficits because the economy in 2010 contracted by 4.5% and the unemployment rate jumped to 15%.
  • Normally, this would be a matter between a debtor and its creditors. However, European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board Member Juergen Stark warns that the effects of restructuring “could overshadow the effects of the Lehman bankruptcy,” which is associated with the beginning of the 2008 financial crisis.
  • ...3 more annotations...
  • In the case of Greece, government actions and regulations also lie at the heart of what threatens to be a European financial crisis.
  • This risk is amplified by special rules created by politicians that encourage banks to lend freely to governments.
  • Here’s how it works. Governments require banks to hold capital against the loans that they make, anticipating that in the normal course of business, some of the loans will not be repaid.  The riskier the loan, the more capital that needs to be held in reserve. However, under international rules negotiated by government representatives through the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), government loans fit into a special category that has a 0% risk requirement.  That means European banks do not have to hold any reserves against loans they make to European governments.  That’s right, politicians implicitly promised banks that governments would never default.  And, given the opportunity to make “risk free” loans that require no capital commitment, bankers purchased mountains of government debt.
Alejandro Enamorado

Income Inequality Around the World Is a Failure of Capitalism - Kentaro Toyama - Busine... - 0 views

www.theatlantic.com/...238837

inequality income capitalism

shared by Alejandro Enamorado on 06 Jun 11 - No Cached
  • But inequality is rising in most developed countries, literally upending the Kuznets curve
  • The Kuznets Curve, named after Nobel Laureate Simon Kuznets, predicts that as nations become wealthier, inequality initially rises and then declines, like a single squeeze of an accordion.
  • The OECD considers several reasons why this might be, including: increases in more people working part-time; increases in investment-based income among richer households; and even rich folks marrying each other and doubling up on wealth accumulated at the top.
  • ...2 more annotations...
  • the dominant reason is that we're experiencing another labor revolution, a transition from low-skill industrial work to high-skill knowledge work. High-skilled workers with jobs that cannot be off-shored or automated are being paid more compared with low-skilled workers.
  • Policies that promote the up-skilling of the workforce are therefore key factors to reverse the trend to further growing inequality." The only way to achieve fairness in a meritocracy is to provide more equal opportunities for everyone to attain merit.
naheekim

Housing prices to drop 25%, forecaster predicts - thestar.com - 2 views

www.thestar.com/...to-drop-25-over-next-few-years

Housing Prices Recession

shared by naheekim on 28 May 11 - No Cached
  • House prices in Canada will fall over the next several years by as much as 25 per cent, creating a massive impact on the economy and possibly pushing the country into recession, says a forecast
  • predicting house prices will fall by a cumulative 25 per cent over the next several years
  •  Madani says the effects on consumer spending and housing investment could be significant and perhaps strong enough to “push the economy into another recession
  • ...7 more annotations...
  • “If house prices are to fall, there needs to be a mechanism — an excess of supply relative to demand,”
  • Last year, the Canadian Real Estate Association modified its forecasts at least four times. After initially predicting housing prices would increase in 2011, it now says prices will fall by 1.3 per cent — far below the eye-catching 25 per cent forecast by Capital Economics.
  • Financial agencies such as the Canadian Mortgage Housing Corporation, which provides mortgage loan insurance, could also be exposed to significant losses
  • The Capital Economics forecast is not the first to predict a bubble in the Canadian market. Gluskin Sheff & Associates chief economist David Rosenberg has also predicted a 25 per cent drop in Canadian housing prices, as has The Economist magazine.
  • As in the U.S., financial innovation and very low interest rates have allowed Canadian consumers to take on more debt, and house prices are high relative to income
  • However, consumers have remained complacent because low rates are keeping mortgage payments low.
  • The historical home price-to-income ratio is 3.5, but now it's hovering around the 5.5 mark, meaning average house prices are more than five times the income of workers
  • naheekim on 28 May 11
     
    The economists and forcasters are predicting that housing prices will decrease over the next several years by 25%.
Dmitri Tkachenko

National Bank is North Americas Strongest Bank: Bloomberg - 0 views

www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/...-strongest-bank-bloomberg.html

Canadian banks best internationally

shared by Dmitri Tkachenko on 25 May 11 - No Cached
  • Dmitri Tkachenko on 25 May 11
     
    "Canada has five banks in the top 20, with CIBC ranking 4th internationally behind National Bank. Canadian banks have "higher capital ratios than anyone else in the world," Canaccord Genuity analyst Mario Mendonca told Bloomberg. National Bank Pres. & CEO Louis Vachon told Bloomberg: "…size is not everything in financial services," and indeed it's not. National Bank's #1 North American ranking shows that prudent risk management and liquidity are meaningful and a source of confidence for investors and customers alike. Other ranking criteria included non-performing assets, loan-loss reserves, deposits-to-funding, and cost efficiency."
dylan huber

Does Income Inequality Help Cause Financial Crises? « naked capitalism - 0 views

www.nakedcapitalism.com/...lp-cause-financial-crises.html

Inequality Income Causes Blog

shared by dylan huber on 02 Jun 11 - No Cached
  • high levels of income inequality stoke financial crises
  • Richard B. Freeman, an economist at Harvard, is comparing about 125 financial crises around the globe that occurred over the last 30 years. He said inequality soared before many of these crises.
  • ncome inequality is either a symptom of conditions that can produce bank crises (like excessive financailization of an economy) or a secondary contributor.
  • ...1 more annotation...
  • large scale international capital flows would be associated with the prominence of large international ventures which again could distribute a lot of winnings to a comparatively small (in societal terms) number of beneficiaries.
Susan Cui

Canadian house prices continue to rise, although April sales down - 6 views

www.montrealgazette.com/...story.html

Housing Price Falling sales Rising Prices

shared by Susan Cui on 23 May 11 - No Cached
  • Canadian home prices continued their upward march in April, driven by strong investor demand in Vancouver, while cracks in the Toronto condominium market may be starting to appear.
  • The Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday the average price of a home sold in April across the country was $372,544, up eight per cent from a year ago.
  • but the Ottawa-based group cautioned that the figure was skewed due to "surging multimillion dollar property sales in selected areas of Greater Vancouver."
  • ...13 more annotations...
  • slow April sales figures
  • saw activity dip 4.4 per cent from March
  • The slow sales are said to have been driven by new mortgage rules which came into affect April 19 and made it tougher to borrow.
  • Changes to mortgage regulations that took effect in April 2011 likely sidelined a number of first-time homebuyers. By contrast, higher end homes sales in Greater Vancouver and Toronto had their best April ever.
  • more than 50 per cent of condominiums sold in the past year were purchased by buyers who do not intend to occupy their units and plan to rent in many instances.
  • People are buying these for capital appreciation.
  • Don Lawby, chief executive of Century 21 Canada, says the housing market has been affected by foreign investors who have reacted to tougher tax rules in their home country by investing abroad.
  • They are not afraid to offer above price and they are not afraid to get into a bidding war
  • Nevertheless, Lawby says
  • these investors
  • are small and the impact on the larger market minimal.
  • while April numbers present a market with falling sales and rising prices,
  • market conditions were exaggerated by some one-time issues.
Susan Cui

Best Way to Fix Housing Market Let Prices Fall (Fast): Tech Ticker, Yahoo! Finance - 3 views

finance.yahoo.com/...-Market-Let-Prices-Fall-(Fast)

Housing Price Best way to fix

shared by Susan Cui on 23 May 11 - No Cached
  • "Fixing the housing market" is usually defined as:Stopping house prices from falling Stopping foreclosures
  • Prices. The best way to stop prices from falling is to let them fall far enough to reach equilibrium, fast.
  • Foreclosed houses are selling like hotcakes because prices are finally attractive enough to draw in new capital.
  • ...15 more annotations...
  • Un-foreclosed houses are NOT selling like hotcakes, but this is because their owners have yet faced up to the reality of how little they are worth (or, put differently, because they don't yet have to sell).
  • The vast majority of plans to "stop prices from falling" involve subsidies of one form or another (tax credits, subsidized mortgage rates, etc.)  These may slow the decline, but they won't stop it
  • subsidizing/encouraging debt-bingeing and homeownership is what got us until this mess in this first place.
  • The fastest and most effective way to stop prices from falling is to let them fall until they've reached equilibrium. And then start rebuilding wealth, equity, and economic growth from there.
  • Lots of Americans are going to lose their houses in the next few years regardless of what we do.
  • Keeping the number of foreclosures as small as possible
  • will just delay the inevitable
  • Importantly,
  • Foreclosures are caused by owners' inability to make debt payments.
  • The best way to stop foreclosures, therefore, is to get people out of houses they can't afford and into houses they CAN afford (whether by renting or buying).
  • the house-price issue
  • (No reason to buy or build now if you think prices will be cheaper tomorrow).
  • Businesses and consumers
  • open up their wallets
  • when house prices stop falling. And the fastest way to get there is to let them fall.
alex yesikov

Tag, You're It! Too Big to Fail Risk Transferred, Not Eliminated - Daniel Indiviglio - ... - 2 views

www.theatlantic.com/...239414

Systemic Risk USA Banks Financial Crisis 2008 Too big to fail

shared by alex yesikov on 30 May 11 - No Cached
  • Whenever we think of giant firms that a government feels it must bailout, big banks generally come to mind. Sure, an insurance company sneaked in there too, but AIG might have been more of an exception, since it so grossly underestimated the risks it was taking on its financial products and lived in a grey regulatory area. Although last summer's giant financial regulation bill sought to eliminate the systemic risk that led to a crisis a few years ago, it may have merely transferred some of it, creating a new breed of too big to fail firms
  • Those who understand the crisis know that derivatives were involved, particularly through AIG. It needed to be bailed out, because it did not have enough capital on hand to back up the credit default swaps agreements it had written. A large number of those were tied to the housing market, which caused the crisis.
  • In order to avoid this problem derivatives pose in the future, new financial regulation demands that all derivatives are cleared, when possible. For those who aren't familiar with clearing, the general idea is that each derivative is matched with an equal, opposite derivative through a central bookkeeper -- a clearing house -- to net out the risk they pose (more explanation with a lengthy analogy here).
  • ...1 more annotation...
  • For example, imagine if AIG had cleared all of its credit default swaps. In theory, that means a clearing house would have ensured that the insurer had ample cash (or other collateral) on hand to satisfy their payouts.
Alejandro Enamorado

Of the 1%, by the 1%, for the 1% | Society | Vanity Fair - 0 views

www.vanityfair.com/...top-one-percent-201105

economics inequality USA stiglitz

shared by Alejandro Enamorado on 03 Jun 11 - No Cached
  • In terms of wealth rather than income, the top 1 percent control 40 percent. Their lot in life has improved considerably. Twenty-five years ago, the corresponding figures were 12 percent and 33 percent.
  • While the top 1 percent have seen their incomes rise 18 percent over the past decade, those in the middle have actually seen their incomes fall. For men with only high-school degrees, the decline has been precipitous—12 percent in the last quarter-century alone.
  • The justification they came up with was called “marginal-productivity theory.” In a nutshell, this theory associated higher incomes with higher productivity and a greater contribution to society.
  • ...2 more annotations...
  • The most obvious example involves tax policy. Lowering tax rates on capital gains, which is how the rich receive a large portion of their income, has given the wealthiest Americans close to a free ride.
  • Imagine what the world might look like if the rules were designed instead to encourage competition among countries for workers. Governments would compete in providing economic security, low taxes on ordinary wage earners, good education, and a clean environment—things workers care about.
Carolyne Wang

Inequality Rising Across the Developed World - NYTimes.com - 0 views

economix.blogs.nytimes.com/...ing-across-the-developed-world

Income Inequality OECD Gini Coefficient Globalization

shared by Carolyne Wang on 02 Jun 11 - No Cached
  • A new report from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development finds that most of its member countries have seen their richest citizens get much, much richer in the last few decades, leading to a widening income gap.
    • Carolyne Wang
      Carolyne Wang on 02 Jun 11
       
      This graph shows that the Gini coefficients of most countries have increased, indicating increasing income inequality in the world as the value of the Gini coefficient approaches 1, which represents perfect income inequality.
  • As lower-paid workers have seen their incomes stagnate or even fall, the highest-paid workers have gotten steep raises.
  • ...8 more annotations...
  • Changes in capital income — which primarily affects wealthier people — have contributed to rising inequality, although the impact has been relatively modest when compared to changes in labor income
    • Carolyne Wang
      Carolyne Wang on 02 Jun 11
       
      In this graph, you can see that there is a greater reduction in the number of hours worked by low income earners compared to the hours worked by high income earners. Fewer work hours combined with low wages leads to lower incomes for the poor and widens the divide between the rich and the poor.
  • Today, across developed countries, the average income of the richest 10 percent of the population is about nine times that of the poorest 10 percent, with much bigger multiples in Israel, Turkey, the United States, Chile and Mexico. In these last two countries, the income ratio is 27 to 1.
  • Besides outright layoffs, there have also been cuts in work hours (sometimes voluntary, sometimes not), disproportionately affecting lower-paid employees:
  • Globalization has had an impact, as rich countries have been sending more of their commodifiable, generally less-skilled jobs offshore, which has displaced many lower-paid workers in rich countries.
  • Technological improvements have also disproportionately benefited the pay of high-skilled workers. Regulatory changes, like loosening protections for temporary (and less-skilled) workers and lower unemployment benefits, may have also had an effect.
  • Over the years people have become more and more likely to marry mates who have similar incomes. “Today, 40 percent of couples in which both partners work belong to the same or neighboring earnings deciles, compared with 33 percent some 20 years ago,” the report says.
  • Surely to some extent this has to do with more women having earnings, period, and therefore having more women’s earning matching what their husbands make. But in any case if poor marry poor and rich marry rich, that magnifies the income gap effect. After all, if poor married rich, the result would be more evenly distributed wealth.
Steven Iarusci

Canadians load up on mortgages, cut card debt - 0 views

www.montrealgazette.com/...story.html

credit card debt mortgage rates bubble housing

shared by Steven Iarusci on 02 Jun 11 - No Cached
  • The bank set aside $145million in provisions for credit losses, down $104-million as more customers repaid their loans.
    • Steven Iarusci
      Steven Iarusci on 02 Jun 11
       
      BMO is the bank in question.
  • consumer credit-card balances are declining as bank customers start to heed warnings about taking on too much debt
  • On the residential mortgage side, Mr. Downe said he expects to see growth start to "soften" in the coming months
  • ...8 more annotations...
  • record household debt levels have left this country vulnerable to economic shocks
  • the Canadian banks will report a slight increase in profit for the quarter as they contend with the impact of declining consumer borrowing, moderating capital markets activity and other headwinds.
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  • With domestic household debt levels hovering close to where they were in the United States prior to the financial crisis, many observers are warning that Canadians need to start paying down debt if the economy is remain on level footing
  • Canadian consumers continue to pile on mortgage debt despite repeated warnings that they need to crank back on borrowing if this country is to avoid a painful real estate correction
  • anadian consumers continue to pile on mortgage debt despite repeated warnings that they need to crank back on borrowing if this country is to avoid a painful real estate correction
  • growth in the overall home loan market "is continuing to be more robust,"
  • Canada's fourth-largest lender on Wednesday kicked off second-quarter bank earnings season with a 7.5% increase in profit on the back of lower provisions for bad loans
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