Patternicity: Finding Meaningful Patterns in Meaningless Noise: Scientific American - 7 views
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They begin with the formula pb > c, where a belief may be held when the cost (c) of doing so is less than the probability (p) of the benefit (b). For example, believing that the rustle in the grass is a dangerous predator when it is only the wind does not cost much, but believing that a dangerous predator is the wind may cost an animal its life.
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Gaby Ramirez Castorena on 20 Oct 11The way the author explains this is very confusing. I feel like he could have, and should have, done a better job at making this more understandable.
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Joshua Gray on 20 Oct 11True, I believe the author could have done a better job and give greater evidence to prove the point. But I feel using any religion as an example works well for this. Believing in a supreme being and any religious rquirements there in are worth doing for a person because the negative effects of it are seemingly minimal while if the person is correct than they get to go to an afterlife that is percieved better than life on earth.
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Sarah McKee on 20 Oct 11I think the predator example is a good one but yes the religion example is good as well. It's all just that the cost is less than the chance of missing out on something. Because then the cost could be far greater. Such as getting eaten by a predator or missing out on Heaven. Hiding, or running away from good food or not indulging in lots of "sinful" activity seems a small price compared to getting eaten or spending eternity in hell.
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Tavish Dunn on 21 Oct 11I agree that the author's explanations could have been clearer, but the examples of religion and the predator still illustrate the point. No matter how difficult it seems to resist the temptation of things that are deemed sinful throughout life, life is still temporary and any hardships are insignificant compared to an eternal suffering in hell. Both examples have situations where the cost of not believing in something that is true are permanent while the cost of falsely believing something are temporary.
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Valencia Hamilto on 21 Oct 11The formula pb > c was a little confusing at first, but once the author gave the explanation through the example of the predator , it all fit into place. I agree with the author that the cost is less than the chance of missing out on something.
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Alexis Schomer on 26 Oct 12This idea is very interesting and after given the examples I agree. It is better to think something is real when it isn't that the opposite. This concept is not only applicable to nature, but to many issues in life and has the same meaning and lesson when applied to anything.
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Karina DaSilva on 26 Oct 12Exactly. I think the analogy of the predator/wind is a pretty good description of how a lot of belief systems work. It's not a scare tactic so much as it is, at least partly, a reassurance of the future of one's self.
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Carissa Faulk on 26 Oct 12This is of course very true, and also makes sense. Not only does our sense of self preservation tend to believe patterns are true if the cost is less than the potential benefits, but so should our rationality. Even though it might be wise to question whether or not the pattern is actually a pattern, it is equally wise to assume it to be one until proven otherwise.
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madison taylor on 26 Oct 12It was an interesting article, but i agree it was a little difficult to understand at times. the idea that we can see and believe things that aren't true is valid. it is also a good point that we should be more rational about things.
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Religionists see the Virgin Mary on the side of a building.
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This is true. We develop our own beliefs and justifications for why things happen or why they are the way they are. A person see Virgin Mary and another sees Micheal Jordan is just a connection to our inner beliefs. What makes it important to us? How do we put a face to something? It reminds me of precedents in court, because they are use to make future decisions. We make connections in our minds to explain certain things!
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Like Felicia, I agree with this concept. It is a little bit of a complicated explanation because when we think of priming, we think of being influences on purpose by outside sources. But, seeing the Virgin Mary on the side of a building is not a certain religion telling that person to see her everywhere they go, so it is not an intentional priming. However, I do agree that we make certain connections with certain things because of our background and how we live.
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I think it might go deeper than being religious when someone sees the Virgin Mary on the side of a building. It does scratch the surface in the article when trying to explain the Type I and Type II cognizance. It is something that might be more emotionally attached to their psyche than anything else. Or it could be just superficial belief in the paranormal or superstitions.
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and prior events
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If it's been a predator before you're more likely to think it's a predator. Whenever your right it provides a positive reinforcement.
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I feel like this is just a living being's natural tenancy to favor safety over harm. It comes down to being prepared for the worst, which is, as the author would say, a natural selective attribute. Error on the side of caution clearly is statistically more beneficial than the other option. An animals prime instinct is to survive in order to reproduce. Humans have a responsibility to reproduce as well as to be productive members of society. Being more "cautious" allows people to contribute more and have experiences to benefit society as well as the people around them. I am not saying everyone lives for their country/community, but people choose to live because of the personal connections we make with others, and THAT is the cost we way, the benefits of this is what is considered in the equation.
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The connection of this idea to the concept of inequality is that we use this concept to shape what policies we fight for and ones we don't care for. The policies that come at the greatest cost with a lesser benefit are the ones that people choose not to support. Policies with the greatest benefit with the least cost is more favorable. As far as believing false negatives/positives, these beliefs are based on hope (false positives) and lack of information/ignorance (false negatives).
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I agree with Sarah because yes it was already a predator you are more inclined to think its a predator because thats all you've known it as.
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I like the predator example and feel it helped my understand the article better. How we see something and how we relate it to ourselves such as the Virgin Mary is very important. I also feel the cost is less than the chance of missing out in the long run.
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I find this information very interesting: Patternicity," or the tendency to find meaningful patterns in meaningless noise. It is also an error in cognition. Natural selection will favor patternicity. There are two types, or a false or a positive, believing something is real when it is not and believing something is real when it is. Our brains are belief engines: evolved pattern-recognition machines that connect the dots and create meaning out of the patterns that we think we see in nature.