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The Future of Online Learning: Ten Years On An MS-Word version of this essay is available at http://www.downes.ca/files/future2008.doc In the summer of 1998, over two frantic weeks in July, I wrote an essay titled The Future of Online Learning. (Downes, 1998) At the time, I was working as a distance education and new media design specialist at Assiniboine Community College, and I wrote the essay to defend the work I was doing at the time. "We want a plan," said my managers, and so I outlined the future as I thought it would - and should - unfold. In the ten years that have followed, this vision of the future has proven to be remarkably robust. I have found, on rereading and reworking the essay, that though there may have been some movement in the margins, the overall thrust of the paper was essentially correct. This gives me confidence in my understanding of those forces and trends that are moving education today. In this essay I offer a renewal of those predictions. I look at each of the points I addressed in 1998, and with the benefit of ten year's experience, recast and rewrite each prediction. This essay is not an attempt to vindicate the previous paper - time has done that - but to carry on in the same spirit, and to push that vision ten years deeper into the future.

A Radically Different World If you think our future will require better schools, you're wrong. The future of education calls for entirely new kinds of learning environments. If you think we will need better teachers, you're wrong. Tomorrow's learners will need guides who take on fundamentally different roles. As every dimension of our world evolves so rapidly, the education challenges of tomorrow will require solutions that go far beyond today's answers.

From Participation to Creation This 2020 Forecast illuminates how we are shifting toward a culture of creation in which each of us has the opportunity - and the responsibility - to make our collective future. People are creating new selves, organizations, systems, societies, economies, and knowledge. We are seeing "educitizens" define their rights as learners and re-create the civic sphere. Networked artisans and ad hoc factories are democratizing manufacturing and catalyzing new local economies. These creators are highlighting the significance of cooperation and cross-cultural intelligence for citizenship and economic leadership. Furthermore, advances in neuroscience are creating new notions of performance and cognition and are reshaping discussions of social justice in learning. Communities are beginning to re-create themselves as resilient systems that respond to challenges by replenishing their vital resources and creating flexible, open, and adaptive infrastructures. Together, these forces are pushing us to create the future of learning as an ecosystem, in which we have yet to determine the role of educational institutions as we know them today.

Home About the eLearning Network What is the eLN? The eLearning Network (eLN) is a non-profit organisation run by the elearning community for the elearning community. The eLN is the number one source for guidance on best practice and future trends in technology-based learning and development at work, with more than 1500 members in the UK and beyond. Here's why it has never been a better time to join the eLN: Inspiration Technology has never developed so quickly and with such far-reaching implications. You need information you can trust, practical advice and standards to aspire to. As a member of the eLN expect to be inspired: * The E-Learning Awards, run each year in conjunction with e.learning age magazine, provide a showcase for the very best elearning projects that the UK has to offer. In 2009, we are extending our programme to recognise talented practitioners in a wide range of disciplines from graphic design to project management. * Our 1-day conferences address the most critical issues faced by the elearning community and provide an opportunity to explore future trends. In 2009, we are looking at hot topics such as making the case for elearning, creating engaging and effective elearning content, the future of learning management systems, and next generation blended learning. * Our face-to-face events are supplemented by a series of free online events and, for the first time, premium webinars providing opportunities to interact with internationally-reknown experts.

The present and future of Personal Learning Environments (PLE) - 9 comments This post is recast from an assignment I completed about four months ago in a Masters Degree course entitled Innovative Practice and Emerging ICT, in which I investigated what PLEs are meant to be and where they might be going. It was originally part of a class wiki. Contents 1. Introduction 2. Towards a Definition 3. Driving Forces 4. Developments to Date 5. Barriers 6. Future Potential 7. References 8. Web Links Introduction A definition for the term Personal Learning Environment (PLE), remains elusive. Conception about what should constitute a PLE depends on the perspective of the commentator. For example, the priorities for a PLE are different for a tertiary student, a university administrator, an instructor, a working professional, or an adult who persues an eclectic path of lifelong learning. Metaphorically, an individual may engage in a learning process that is either more acquisitional or participatory (Sfard, 1998). There are inconsistencies across these positions about what a PLE should do. But whether constructively and defensively, interest in PLE appears to be growing. At the time of writing this introduction (August 2006), no particular product or service exists that can definitively be categorised as a PLE, although some prototypical work is in progress. An inclusive, authoritative account about PLEs does not yet exist. Only a handful of articles have appeared in the academic and public press about PLEs since the term gained currency in 2004. This article has been compiled after tracking recent conversations in the blogosphere and following social bookmarks.

"Journalists everywhere are starting blogs and entering the next phase in the history of journalism. Whether you call it Journalism 2.0, or a shift in media consciousness. It's pretty clear, the game has completely transformed. Transformation for the Better As the future of journalism unfolds, we're beginning to see just how beneficial this shift is for the writers out there. 1. We can interact directly with our audience. 2. We can write for a small audience, about what we care about. 3. We can profit directly, and immediately, from our writing. 4. We can build a reputation for ourselves, outside of an institution. The challenge is that journalists have to overcome a radical shift in thinking: whereas in the past we just concentrated in writing, and our business did all of our marketing and publishing. Us journalists of the future have to become a one-man journalistic machine. We have to take our writing from the idea to the audience all by ourselves. In blogging, there are a lot of things you need to consider to hit that mark of success. Suddenly, it isn't as easy to just write and publish blog posts! Know these most important tasks you need to do for your blog:"

Science fiction novelist William Gibson is attributed with the quote, "The future is already here. It's just not very evenly distributed." He was speaking of course about the science facts upon which much sci-fi is based, and learning professionals also know something about understanding the realities of right now such that we can begin to support the organization of tomorrow. The fact is that the business of learning and development is about always looking forward. Whether gaining awareness about Millennial generation talent, the future of the LMS, or the promise of more successful remote collaboration, the realm of knowledge is very often tied to the practice of thinking ahead. We spoke with leaders and thinkers in the learning industry to get their insight into what the next decade holds for workplace learning and why we should be paying attention now.

Curriculum-free, interactive, self-service learning is the way of the future, but it's a future most training departments are not quite ready to adopt. Most of us agree on where we're headed: to ecologies where work and learning are one and the same, where people help one another build competency and master new crafts, where members of self-sustaining communities of professionals participate because they take pride in maintaining their standards and doing a great job, and where everyone strives to be all she can be. Open, participative, bottom-up, networked, flexible, responsive: that's what we're after. If only it were that simple. Learning professionals are already over-burdened. Budgets are tight. The economy is a shambles. Management demands cost-effective, rapid-impact solutions. And they want them up and running tomorrow. Pulling this off requires choosing among a myriad of new technologies, coordinating with IT, cobbling together social networking tools, CYA with legal, monitoring social network performance, and answering demands for new approaches, all the while doing the old job with fewer resources and more demands.

The Future of Work - good-bye martini lunches, hello working poolside Posted by Erik Larson at 04:28 PM Will social networking and instant messages replace the standard business phone call, the client lunch and the handshake? The Acrobat.com team recently completed a survey with Directions Research, Inc. that points toward an evolution in office workplace culture, including the changing ways white-collar workers are interacting and coordinating their tasks, and how business will be conducted in the social media-rich environment of the 21st century. The survey identified four key categories of knowledge workers: Leaders - Young professionals who use a variety of emerging technologies both at work and in their personal lives Actives - Largely over-35 year old professionals who have adapted to emerging technologies to meet the changing demands of the workplace Followers - The less technically-inclined who rely on e-mail at the exclusion of other technologie Resistors - Generally older workers who are reluctant to adjust to shifts in the workplace and office technologies

David Wiley & John Hilton's opening article for the Openness and the Future of Higher Education special issue of the International Review of Research in Open and Distance Learning (IRRODL).

"We believe the time has come to broaden the traditional approach to leadership and decision making and form a new perspective based on complexity science. (For more on this, see the sidebar "Understanding Complexity.") Over the past ten years, we have applied the principles of that science to governments and a broad range of industries. Working with other contributors, we developed the Cynefin framework, which allows executives to see things from new viewpoints, assimilate complex concepts, and address real-world problems and opportunities. (Cynefin, pronounced ku-nev-in, is a Welsh word that signifies the multiple factors in our environment and our experience that influence us in ways we can never understand.) Using this approach, leaders learn to define the framework with examples from their own organization's history and scenarios of its possible future. This enhances communication and helps executives rapidly understand the context in which they are operating."

"The Cognitive Edge Network is evolving a series of open source methods based on naturalising sense-making through the Method Development Cycle. The full list of methods can be accessed here. The Method Template is designed to provide some guidance to users of the Cognitive Edge Wiki and also a cut and paste capability to assist in setting up a new page. In general the following principles should be followed: 1. Consistency: should be consistent with the principles of naturalising sense-making. In other words it should avoid idealistic approaches based on defining future states rather than enabling evolution 2. Minimalism: a method template should contain the essence of the method and should be written so that a practitioner can quickly glance through the sheet (especially the work flow) during use without the need to navigate through a large amount of text. 3. Use HTML: additional material, illustrations, detailed check lists, supporting documents, action forms or whatever can also be stored as files or as new articles and then referenced from the method document. 4. Object based: methods should be descrete items, which can easily be combined with other methods. As such they should be codified at a level which allows that. Assemblies can be written up as Offerings 5. Non-specificity: as far as possible do not make the method description specific to a particular application area or industry sector. If there is a good example of the application then create a new article and create a link to that article 6. Avoid recipes: the Cognitive Edge method is object based, it is not a recipe. We expect adaption in context. Methods should therefore not read like recipes, or encourage people to repeat past practice. The method document is an original from which context specific practice can be developed. "

"Institutional approaches to curriculum design Curriculum design blog JISC Curriculum Design & Delivery1 * The Future of QA & QE2 Tue, 06 Jul 2010 18:25:50 +0000 Various group discussions and the panel session at the QA & QE in e-Learning conference at the Unive... * QA QE Toolkit3 Tue, 06 Jul 2010 18:03:22 +0000 A toolkit created by the QAQE SIG was the subject of discussion & consultation at the QA & QE in e-L... * Review of QAA Code of Practice4 Tue, 06 Jul 2010 17:41:27 +0000 Brief notes from the QA & QE in e-Learning conference at the University of Hertfordshire on 2nd July... The aim of the JISC e-Learning programme is to enable UK further and higher education to create a better learning environment for all learners, wherever and however they study. Its vision is of a world where learners, teachers, researchers and wider institutional stakeholders use technology to enhance the overall educational experience by improving flexibility and creativity and by encouraging comprehensive and diverse personal, high quality learning, teaching and research."

"In January I published an artcile entitled 'Personal Learning Environments - the future of eLearning?' in the second edition of e-Learning Papers, a new journal published by elearningeuropa. The online journal subsequently invited readers to ask me questions about the paper. Very fine questions they were too. I have just got round to answering the answers will no doubt appear on the elearningeuropa portal shortly. "

"If we're to believe the experts rather than the man-in the-street, the 21stCentury started on 1st January 2001 rather than on 1st January 2000. Subsequently, we're now in the second half of the last year of the first decade of the millennium. That being the case, it's probably worthwhile reflecting on the changes that have impacted our training/learning departments over the past 10 years. It's also worthwhile thinking forward to the world we're likely to be facing over the next 10 and considering what an ideal learning and development team might look like if it is to effectively navigate the future."

Innovation in Online Higher Education Published November 14, 2008 Random... , Thinkses In an article in the Guardian a couple of days ago - UK universities should take online lead, it was reported that "UK universities should push to become world leaders in online higher education", with universities secretary, John Denham, "likely to call" for the development of a "global Open University in the UK". (Can you imagine how well that call went down here?;-) Anyway, the article gave me a heads-up about the imminent publication of a set of reports to feed into a Debate on the Future of Higher Education being run out of the Department for Innovation, Universities and Skills.

useful survey and comments on new govnt report on e learing from expert at the OU

"The emergence of the networked information economy is unleashing two powerful forces. On one hand, easy access to high-speed networks is empowering individuals. People can now discover and consume information resources and services globally from their homes. Further, new social computing approaches are inviting people to share in the creation and edification of information on the Internet. Empowerment of the individual -- or consumerization -- is reducing the individual's reliance on traditional brick-and-mortar institutions in favor of new and emerging virtual ones. Second, ubiquitous access to high-speed networks along with network standards, open standards and content, and techniques for virtualizing hardware, software, and services is making it possible to leverage scale economies in unprecedented ways. What appears to be emerging is industrial-scale computing -- a standardized infrastructure for delivering computing power, network bandwidth, data storage and protection, and services. Comsumerization and industrialization beg the question "Is this the end of the middle?"; that is, what will be the role of "enterprise" IT in the future? Indeed, the bigger question is what will become of all of our intermediating institutions? This volume examines the impact of IT on higher education and on the IT organization in higher education."

Portal Integration Student portals are becoming the place for student materials and council portals are becoming the hub of all public services. Portal Integration mean users no longer need to remember multiple passwords to login to multiple systems to access institutions services. Yet often valuable library services are missing from this new first point of interaction with students and citizens. Providing library information such as reservations waiting collection, library fines and which books are on loan to the user; Portal integration offers several key outcomes: * Improved user experience * Promotes the online visibility of the library service Talis have developed a complete solution that enables library information to be integrated with major portal solutions such as: * Microsoft Sharepoint * Students/campus portals (uPortal, Moodle etc) * Virtual Learning Environments (Blackboard) What our Portal Integration customers think: "The integration with Talis Keystone has enabled us to deliver a seamless service to staff and students visiting us via the University's portal. We are delighted that our efforts are available on the Talis Developer Network to help other libraries, and look forward to benefiting from their contributions to this open community in the future." Lorraine Beard, Head of Information Services at The University of Manchester

"I'm delivering the opening keynote for Edinburgh University's IT Futures Conference today and was asked to deliver an expanded version of the work I've been doing on the physical spaces of learning, and how they transgress virtual learning spaces, too. The theme of the conference is fascinating, and a conversation I'd like to see happening more regularly in more schools: It will look at both the staff and student perspective of what the working space is, and is becoming. Where does technology fit in, and how do we work and study in this increasingly mobile world?"

Threshold Magazine Spring 2009 This issue of Threshold: Exploring the Future of Education features articles focused on learning in a participatory culture, produced in partnership with MIT Project New Media Literacies.