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Hunter Cutting

Declining rainfall over 30 years helped fuel conflicts in sub-Sahara - 0 views

www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm

conflict climate change impact Africa sub-Sahara Darfur precipitation drought temperature

shared by Hunter Cutting on 16 Jun 10 - Cached
  • Some experts call the genocide in Darfur the world's first conflict caused by climate change. After all, the crisis was sparked, at least in part, by a decline in rainfall over the past 30 years just as the region's population doubled, pitting wandering pastoralists against settled farmers for newly scarce resources, such as arable land.
  • Agricultural economist Marshall Burke of the University of California, Berkeley and his colleagues have analyzed the history of conflict in sub-Saharan Africa between 1980 and 2002 in a new paper in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
  • "We find that civil wars were much more likely to happen in warmer-than-average years, with one degree Celsius warmer temperatures in a given year associated with a 50 percent higher likelihood of conflict in that year," Burke says. The implication: because average temperatures may warm by at least one degree C by 2030, "climate change could increase the incidences of African civil war by 55 percent by 2030, and this could result in about 390,000 additional battle deaths if future wars are as deadly as recent wars."
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  • In fact, temperature change offered a better prediction of impending conflict in the 40 countries surveyed than even changes in rainfall, despite the fact that agriculture in this region is largely dependent on such precipitation. Burke and his fellow authors argue that this could be because many staple crops in the region are vulnerable to reduced yields with temperature changes—10 to 30 percent drops per degree C of warming.
  • "If temperature rises, crop yields decline and rural incomes fall, and the disadvantaged rural population becomes more likely to take up arms," Burke says. "Fighting for something to eat beats starving in their fields."
  • Whereas 23 years in 40 countries provides a relatively large data set, it does not exclude other possible explanations, such as violent crime increasing with temperature rise, a drop in farm labor productivity or population growth. "Fast population growth could create resource shortage problems, as well," notes geographer David Zhang of the University of Hong Kong, who previously analyzed world history back to A.D. 1400 to find linkages between war and temperature change. Those results were also published in 2007 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. But "the driver for this linkage," Zhang says," is resource shortage, mainly agricultural production, which is caused by climate change." Burke and his colleagues specifically excluded records from prior to 1980, because of the conflict rampant in the wake of Africa's emerging colonial independence after World War II. "A lag of a couple of decades would leave sufficient time for post-independence turmoil to wear out," Burke argues. "We took the approach that the best analogue to the next few decades were the last few decades."
  • Proving the link—and providing a specific mechanism for the increase in conflict, whether agricultural productivity or otherwise—remains the next challenge. "I believe that the historical experience of human society of climate change would provide us [with] the evidence of how climate cooling and warming during the last thousand years created human crisis, and also the lessons for human adaptive choices for climate change," Zhang notes. "We feel that we have very clearly shown the strong link between temperature increases and conflict risk," Burke adds. But "what interventions will make climate-induced conflict less likely?"
  • Hunter Cutting on 16 Jun 10
     
    Article in Scientific American, based on study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Study also addresses role of rising temperatures
Hunter Cutting

New Moore Island lost to sea level rise - 0 views

blog.foreignpolicy.com/...oblem_solved_by_global_warming

India Bangladesh climate change impact sea level rise New Moore Island Sunderbans

shared by Hunter Cutting on 03 Aug 10 - Cached
  • From Africa to the Himalayas, everyone's worried about global warming's potential to drive world conflict. But what about the disputes it will solve? A long-running argument between India and Bangladesh over a small island in the Bay of Bengal has just been resolved: the island's not there anymore: 
  • New Moore Island [also known as South Talpatti] in the Sunderbans has been completely submerged, said oceanographer Sugata Hazra, a professor at Jadavpur University in Calcutta. Its disappearance has been confirmed by satellite imagery and sea patrols, he said. "What these two countries could not achieve from years of talking, has been resolved by global warming," said Hazra.
Hunter Cutting

French Riviera hit with back-to-back record breaking floods in first half of 2010 - 0 views

www.rivieratimes.com/...after-the-flood.html

climate change impact France flooding Riviera Europe

shared by Hunter Cutting on 03 Aug 10 - Cached
  • Provence & Cote d'Azur: 25 reported dead and fears more bodies will be found as massive clean-up operation begins in the Var After the flood Apocalyptic visions are continuing to emerge from the Var in the wake of the torrential rainfall that has been plaguing the region since Tuesday. The scenes are almost impossible to comprehend: battered cars floating down rivers that were just a few days ago normal village streets, residents surrounded by water and stranded on roofs and terraces waiting to be airlifted to safety, buildings destroyed. Most devastating of all: the death toll is rising. The number of dead now lies at 25, the majority of fatalities occurring to people travelling in vehicles. As the water starts to go down, there are fears that more bodies will be found. The situation was not helped this morning as further rain storms hit the worst affected areas, which includes Les Arcs, Draguignan, Roquebrune and Trans. The latest weather disaster to hit the region, the worst flood recorded since 1827, has already left a tragic trail of destruction and death in its wake. Among the victims; a Dutch woman in Fréjus who was swept away in a caravan being towed by her husband; a 19-year-old mechanic who was crushed inside his car in Draguignan; and an 18-month-old baby who was taken by the water from his mother's arms in Roquebrune. Damage to property has been extensive. With homes flooded and commercial buildings torn apart, normal life has come to a standstill in many places and the area resembles more a conflict zone than a popular holiday destination in the South of France. 25,000 homes were still without electricity today and schools, shops and offices remain shut. People are being strongly advised to avoid travelling in the region. The A8 may be open but many of the surrounding smaller roads have been closed and the trains continue to be severely disrupted. Yesterday, government leaders rushed to the disaster site. Brice Hortefeux, Minister of the Interior, in the Var yesterday afternoon, said that this was “an unprecedented disaster in the region.” Joining Hortefeux was Hubert Falco, France’s Secretary of State and the mayor of Toulon, the Var capital. President Sarkozy is expected to arrive in the area early next week. One million euros has been made immediately available, from national funds, for the recovery operation and more will be provided. This same sum was given to Nice and Cannes in the aftermath of the coup de mer in April and the situation this time around is seemingly far worse. It is almost incomprehensible that two “natural disasters” of this scale could occur in the region one so soon after the other. It highlighted for the second time in almost as many months how important it is to be well prepared for extreme weather conditions. As water filled and flooded streets quickly on Tuesday night, it is clear that many urban and residential areas are not designed to cope with heavy rainfall. Furthermore, it has been suggested that this kind of catastrophe can be exacerbated because a culture of risk simply does not exist in France. French senator, Bruno Retailleau, speaking at a press conference this morning, said that France must take better precautions against the risk of floods, which are the nation’s most common 'natural disaster'. He went on to say that the country has the tools to work with and the regulations in place to take preemptive measures against freak weather behaviour but that these are not used adequately. HM
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