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Contents contributed and discussions participated by Chen Lin

Chen Lin

Think Again: The Afghan Surge - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace - 0 views

  • With conditions deteriorating on the ground and the Taliban gaining strength across the country, coalition forces will be in an even worse position next year than they are now. The situation around the major cities of Jalalabad and Kabul is seriously deteriorating, and the state structure in the north is disappearing. In the southern city of Kandahar, a sustained U.S.-led effort has proved unable to dislodge the Taliban from their traditional stronghold; the Taliban have also launched a systematic campaign targeting anyone ready to work with the coalition, killing hundreds since last spring. Instead of being able to start pulling out troops next summer, as Obama has pledged, the United States will be forced to send additional troops just to hold ground. And the longer Washington waits, the harder it will be to negotiate. As the Taliban solidify their power, they will be less and less likely to talk. It's time to negotiate -- this is the only way forward.
  • the longer Washington waits, the harder it will be to negotiate. As the Taliban solidify their power, they will be less and less likely to talk.
  • With conditions deteriorating on the ground and the Taliban gaining strength across the country, coalition forces will be in an even worse position next year than they are now.
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  • But Iraq is the wrong metaphor, and the surge is often misread. That situation turned around largely because Iraqi Sunni groups, fed up with al Qaeda, switched sides -- not because of the extra U.S. troops. The situation is different in Afghanistan, as there isn't a comparable group that opposes the Taliban and could be coaxed into supporting U.S. forces.
  • The civilian surge is only making the military's job harder. The United States is pumping billions into Afghanistan -- some $30 billion in the last three years alone. There's no way the country, whose annual GDP barely exceeds $27 billion, can absorb that kind of cash infusion. The new money destabilizes the population, feeds corruption, and props up an economy that perpetuates violence. It is common knowledge in Afghanistan that subcontractors and logistics companies are paying off the Taliban
  • Karzai's administration has lost all credibility and -- more importantly -- the government's presence is quickly disappearing, not increasing, across the country. NGOs have less and less access to the countryside and have publicly stated that the deterioration of stability is becoming a primary obstacle to their work. It's incredibly difficult to build an army if the civilian structures around it are crumbling. And the Afghan Army continues to suffer from high turnover rates and will not be ready to face the Taliban without support anytime soon.
  • the Pakistani military plans to continue its support for the Taliban. The Pakistani military's ties to these groups go back decades, and it is unrealistic to expect it to cut off these relationships after a few months of U.S. pressure. In any case, the Pakistani Army doesn't have the resources to launch a serious offensive against insurgents operating within its territory anytime soon.
  • Instead of engaging in a futile effort to change the Pakistani Army's entire worldview, the United States should use Pakistan's connections to start talking with the Taliban. The insurgents are ready to negotiate over their participation in a government in Kabul, along with the withdrawal of coalition forces from Afghanistan.
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    Recommended article about why the surge will not work in Afghanistan.
Chen Lin

Time to Take Biodefense Seriously - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace - 0 views

  • Earlier this year, the bipartisan Congressional Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism, chaired by former Sen. Bob Graham, Florida Democrat, and former Sen. Jim Talent, Missouri Republican, gave the United States a failing grade on biodefense preparedness. The report also warned that a weapon-of-mass-destruction (WMD) event is more likely than not by the end of 2013 and a biological attack is the most likely form.
  • This is a key point. Unlike nuclear devices, bioweapons could hit their strategic targets without fear of attribution or mutual assured destruction, thus rendering deterrence ineffective. In other words, absent better forensic detection, biodefense will depend mostly on preparedness to endure attacks rather than prevention. Mr. Hoffman further warns, "The same disguise that concealed the Soviet biological weapons program as civilian research could be used today to hide a dangerous germ warfare program anywhere."
Chen Lin

Election 2010's battle over campaign dollars - CSMonitor.com - 0 views

  • Analyzing reported spending, the Washington Post finds that Republicans have spent at least $100,000 in 77 different congressional races (nearly twice the number of seats they need to gain control of the House), compared with 43 races in which Democrats have spent that much.Looked at across regions of the country, Republicans and their supporters are outspending their Democratic counterparts by 53 percent, the newspaper reports: $74.6 million to $39.7 million, based on Federal Election Commission filings. At the same time, millionaire and billionaire candidates – Republicans Meg Whitman, Carly Fiorina, and Linda McMahon among them – are digging into their personal pocketbooks to battle their opponents on the airwaves.
  • Analyzing reported spending, the Washington Post finds that Republicans have spent at least $100,000 in 77 different congressional races (nearly twice the number of seats they need to gain control of the House), compared with 43 races in which Democrats have spent that much.
Chen Lin

North Korea's heir apparent Kim Jong-un appears with father Kim Jong-il at military par... - 0 views

  • But while Kim Jong-un has support among North Korea's elite, the Chosun Ilbo notes in another article that he appears to be unpopular among the citizenry. The paper writes that while Kim Il-sung is still highly regarded by North Koreans, they only fear Kim Jong-il, and dismiss Kim Jong-un as a nobody.One defector told the newspaper that "The regime says Kim Jong-un has inherited the 'revolutionary achievements' and traditions from his grandfather, but the public has no illusions about him. People are simply speechless at Kim Jong-il's greed in placing his young son on the throne." Another called Kim Jong-un "a scoundrel who relies on his father's power to do whatever he wants. The distrust North Koreans feel toward Kim Jong-il will turn into animosity toward Kim Jong-un, who is said to be just like his father."
Chen Lin

Tea party convergence: Big boost for Republicans in Election 2010 - CSMonitor.com - 0 views

  • In his latest estimate, polling expert Nate Silver of the FiveThirtyEight blog says Republicans have a 72 percent chance of taking over the House, up from 67 percent last week. Also, he writes in his latest New York Times column, the GOP has “nearly even odds of a achieving a net gain of 50 seats” – 11 more than it needs to become the majority party in the House.
  • Of those surveyed by CBS News last week, the split between those with a favorable/unfavorable view of the tea party movement is virtually even – 22-21 percent with 56 percent undecided. But of those registered voters who have formed an opinion of the movement, 29 percent say they’re less likely to vote for a candidate with tea party connections compared to 16 percent who are more likely to vote for such a candidate.
Chen Lin

Supreme Court's campaign finance ruling: just the facts - CSMonitor.com - 0 views

  • The high court also upheld a more sweeping disclosure requirement. Any corporation spending more than $10,000 a year on electioneering efforts must publicly disclose the names of individual contributors.
  • The Supreme Court did not jettison all campaign finance restrictions. Corporations and unions are still prohibited from making direct contributions to federal candidates. Such contributions must be made either by individuals or through regulated political action committees.In addition, although corporations may now spend money to make a political point during election season, the high court has strongly endorsed – by an 8-to-1 vote – disclaimer and disclosure requirements within the federal campaign finance law.That means that when corporations place a political ad on television or radio within 30 days of a primary or 60 days of a general election, it must include the disclaimer: "______ is responsible for the content of this advertising."This disclaimer requirement may deter many corporations from engaging in the kind of vicious political attack ads that some analysts suggest will now become commonplace.
Chen Lin

A government for the people, or a government for wealthy special interests? - CSMonitor... - 0 views

  • And while most Americans understand this system to be badly broken already, the US Supreme Court this year ruled, in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission, to permit unlimited spending by corporations and unions to influence elections. Indeed, early figures show that vastly more money is being spent to influence the outcome of our elections this fall – $4.2 billion in political ad spending alone compared with just $2.1 billion in 2008, according to Borrell Associates. Less than a third of organizations spending money on the fall elections thus far are disclosing their sources of funds, thereby denying citizens any knowledge of who is trying to influence the election.
  • As an important first step in reclaiming our elections and curbing the undue influence of special interests on our candidates, it is high time that Congress passed the Fair Elections Now Act, introduced in the House by my former colleagues Democrat John Larson of Connecticut and Republican Walter Jones of North Carolina. Modeled after successful Fair Elections programs in eight states, the proposed law would require that participating candidates turn down special interest money and accept only $100-or-less donations from their constituents. Candidates who reach a qualifying threshold of 1,500 in-state donations would then be eligible to receive sufficient matching funds to run a serious campaign. This would dramatically reduce the influence of special interests, including unions and corporations. And Fair Elections would open the election process to many more Americans who currently have no opportunity to seek public office for lack of funds.
Chen Lin

The First Move - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace - 0 views

  • In a classic study of co-operation based on computer simulation, The Evolution of Co-operation, Professor Robert Axelrod of the University of Michigan demonstrated that the most effective winning strategy for inducing co-operation is one that offers cooperation first and then sticks to tit-for-tat – or in other words, strict – reciprocity. By applying this strategy, players (or countries) that want to cement mutually co-operative relationships normally make a co-operative first move and then respond positively to acts of co-operation, and retaliate against cheating with cheating. More encouragingly, such a strategy can be applied to situations where both sides are apparently deadlocked in non-co-operative positions. Bilateral deadlocks can be broken if one side pushes the “reset” button and starts the game anew by offering concessions first.
Chen Lin

Obama and his audacity of hope for Middle East peace talks - CSMonitor.com - 1 views

  • It’s critical to keep Abbas and Netanyahu talking. The longer they talk, the greater chance they have at success. And despite the intense pessimism, there is reason to believe that this time really can be different.First, violence is down substantially from years past, and that works to build confidence. Second, settlement building is also down, despite the constant tension on this subject. Third, the public on both sides supports a two-state solution. And fourth, the big push is coming from the US.
Chen Lin

Republicans decline to compromise on tax cuts - latimes.com - 0 views

  • President Obama is pushing for a permanent middle-class tax cut, but only if Bush-era cuts for top earners are eliminated. Republicans, in turn, want permanent tax relief for all income levels. The divide is rapidly becoming the marquee issue of the midterm election.
  • Given the lackluster recovery — with crucial housing and job markets still ailing — an expiration of tax cuts worth about $300 billion a year would be a huge hit to the economy, equivalent to 2% of the nation's total output. The potential economic fallout is far less clear if tax rates rose only for high earners.
  • The chances are small that Congress might address the issue before the November election. But there are ample opportunities for both parties to use their economic messages during the campaign.
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  • But Democrats have a card to play as well. Should Congress fail to act, the reductions will expire for everyone, opening Republicans up to charges that they killed a tax cut because it didn't benefit the wealthiest Americans.
Chen Lin

Consumer Morale Perks Up In August - NYTimes.com - 0 views

  • Nationwide's consumer confidence indicator rose to 61 in August from a 14-month low of 56 in July, recovering to a similar level to August 2009. However, the index remains well below the long-run average of 83 and February's two-year high of 84.
Chen Lin

Poverty rate paradox: Poverty rises, but FBI crime rate falls - CSMonitor.com - 0 views

  • But so far, the numbers undermine the stark crime wave predictions. In fact, the plunge in the national crime rate has been most evident in areas the housing bust has hit the hardest. Even with California unemployment higher than 12 percent, car thefts declined in Los Angeles by 20 percent last year over 2008. Nationally, both violent crime and property crime declined by about 5 percent between 2008 and 2009 – the height of the recession, according to an FBI report issued Monday.
  • Government safety nets – including extension of unemployment benefits and a growth in food stamp recipients – may also have helped to keep despair down and crime rates low, criminologists suggest. At the same time, new policing tactics, including the "broken windows" theory, and booming prison populations – currently at 1.6 million, five times the number of people incarcerated in 1977 – have succeeded largely by targeting specific lawbreakers and high-crime locales instead of broader social injustices, some social critics say.
Chen Lin

Nine years after the attacks of 9/11, how safe is America? - CSMonitor.com - 0 views

  • Although it would like to do so, Al Qaeda does not have the capability of launching an attack on the scale of 9/11, when hijacked airliners flown by suicidal Islamist terrorists slammed into the twin towers of the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, killing thousands.But Al Qaeda still could carry out attacks against symbolic American targets such as the New York subway system or a passenger jet – two plots that were thwarted last year and could have killed hundreds of people. And, according to the report, “This level of threat is likely to persist for years to come.”Al Qaeda and its allies also have established the beginnings of a terrorist recruitment, radicalization, and operational infrastructure in the US, according to “Assessing the Terrorist Threat” by the Bipartisan Policy Center. (The center is a nonprofit organization established in 2007 by former Senate Majority Leaders Howard Baker, Tom Daschle, Bob Dole and George Mitchell – two Republicans and two Democrats.)
  • Although it would like to do so, Al Qaeda does not have the capability of launching an attack on the scale of 9/11, when hijacked airliners flown by suicidal Islamist terrorists slammed into the twin towers of the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, killing thousands.But Al Qaeda still could carry out attacks against symbolic American targets such as the New York subway system or a passenger jet – two plots that were thwarted last year and could have killed hundreds of people. And, according to the report, “This level of threat is likely to persist for years to come.”
Chen Lin

Bush tax cuts get all the attention as US lawmakers reconvene - CSMonitor.com - 0 views

  • But for now, the top issue is whether to permanently extend the 2001 and 2003 Bush tax cuts, set to expire on Dec. 31. In fact, the two parties are not far apart. Both Republicans and Democrats back extending tax cuts for some 97 percent of taxpayers. The catch is the last 3 percent, representing individuals earning more than $200,000 a year and families earning more than $250,000.
  • But for now, the top issue is whether to permanently extend the 2001 and 2003 Bush tax cuts, set to expire on Dec. 31. In fact, the two parties are not far apart. Both Republicans and Democrats back extending tax cuts for some 97 percent of taxpayers. The catch is the last 3 percent, representing individuals earning more than $200,000 a year and families earning more than $250,000.The cost of extending tax cuts to this top income group would be $700 billion over the next 10 years.
  • House Republican leader John Boehner said on Sunday that he is open, if necessary, to renewing the Bush tax cuts for the 97 percent, even if it means not extending those cuts to the top 3 percent. But so far, no GOP leader has joined him.
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  • Moreover, five senators who caucus with Democrats have already announced that they oppose a bill that does not reduce taxes for all income levels. The five are Sen. Joseph Lieberman (I) of Connecticut and Democratic Sens. Evan Bayh of Indiana, Kent Conrad of North Dakota, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, and Jim Webb of Virginia.
Chen Lin

N.Korea meet delayed due to Kim's health - 0 views

  • Analysts said Mr Kim's youngest son, Kim Jong-un, would probably be given an official title at the conference.
  • youngest
Chen Lin

BBC News - Cuba to cut one million public sector jobs - 0 views

  • Cuba's communist government currently controls almost all aspects of the country's economy and employs about 85% of the official workforce, which is put at 5.1 million people. As many as one-in-five of all workers could lose their jobs.
  • To create jobs for the redundant workers, strict rules limiting private enterprise will be relaxed and many more licenses will be issued for people to become self-employed. Private businesses will be allowed to employ staff for the first time.
  • They will also have to pay tax on their profits and for each person they employ, something which could dramatically boost the government's income.
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  • It has suffered from a fall in the price for its main export, nickel, as well as a decline in tourism. Growth has also been hampered by the 48-year US trade embargo.
Chen Lin

Why Populists Are Wrong About Impact of Free Trade | Daniel Griswold | Cato Institute: ... - 0 views

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    trade is fucking awesome don't fuck with economics bitches
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