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Chen Lin

Obama and his audacity of hope for Middle East peace talks - CSMonitor.com - 1 views

www.csmonitor.com/...pe-for-Middle-East-peace-talks

middle east israeli palestinian conflict peace talks Obama administration

shared by Chen Lin on 28 Sep 10 - No Cached
  • It’s critical to keep Abbas and Netanyahu talking. The longer they talk, the greater chance they have at success. And despite the intense pessimism, there is reason to believe that this time really can be different.First, violence is down substantially from years past, and that works to build confidence. Second, settlement building is also down, despite the constant tension on this subject. Third, the public on both sides supports a two-state solution. And fourth, the big push is coming from the US.
Chen Lin

Think Again: The Afghan Surge - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace - 0 views

www.carnegieendowment.org/...index.cfm

afghanistan surge

shared by Chen Lin on 11 Oct 10 - No Cached
  • With conditions deteriorating on the ground and the Taliban gaining strength across the country, coalition forces will be in an even worse position next year than they are now. The situation around the major cities of Jalalabad and Kabul is seriously deteriorating, and the state structure in the north is disappearing. In the southern city of Kandahar, a sustained U.S.-led effort has proved unable to dislodge the Taliban from their traditional stronghold; the Taliban have also launched a systematic campaign targeting anyone ready to work with the coalition, killing hundreds since last spring. Instead of being able to start pulling out troops next summer, as Obama has pledged, the United States will be forced to send additional troops just to hold ground. And the longer Washington waits, the harder it will be to negotiate. As the Taliban solidify their power, they will be less and less likely to talk. It's time to negotiate -- this is the only way forward.
  • the longer Washington waits, the harder it will be to negotiate. As the Taliban solidify their power, they will be less and less likely to talk.
  • With conditions deteriorating on the ground and the Taliban gaining strength across the country, coalition forces will be in an even worse position next year than they are now.
  • ...5 more annotations...
  • But Iraq is the wrong metaphor, and the surge is often misread. That situation turned around largely because Iraqi Sunni groups, fed up with al Qaeda, switched sides -- not because of the extra U.S. troops. The situation is different in Afghanistan, as there isn't a comparable group that opposes the Taliban and could be coaxed into supporting U.S. forces.
  • The civilian surge is only making the military's job harder. The United States is pumping billions into Afghanistan -- some $30 billion in the last three years alone. There's no way the country, whose annual GDP barely exceeds $27 billion, can absorb that kind of cash infusion. The new money destabilizes the population, feeds corruption, and props up an economy that perpetuates violence. It is common knowledge in Afghanistan that subcontractors and logistics companies are paying off the Taliban
  • Karzai's administration has lost all credibility and -- more importantly -- the government's presence is quickly disappearing, not increasing, across the country. NGOs have less and less access to the countryside and have publicly stated that the deterioration of stability is becoming a primary obstacle to their work. It's incredibly difficult to build an army if the civilian structures around it are crumbling. And the Afghan Army continues to suffer from high turnover rates and will not be ready to face the Taliban without support anytime soon.
  • the Pakistani military plans to continue its support for the Taliban. The Pakistani military's ties to these groups go back decades, and it is unrealistic to expect it to cut off these relationships after a few months of U.S. pressure. In any case, the Pakistani Army doesn't have the resources to launch a serious offensive against insurgents operating within its territory anytime soon.
  • Instead of engaging in a futile effort to change the Pakistani Army's entire worldview, the United States should use Pakistan's connections to start talking with the Taliban. The insurgents are ready to negotiate over their participation in a government in Kabul, along with the withdrawal of coalition forces from Afghanistan.
  • Chen Lin on 11 Oct 10
     
    Recommended article about why the surge will not work in Afghanistan.
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