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Chen Lin

Obama and his audacity of hope for Middle East peace talks - CSMonitor.com - 1 views

  • It’s critical to keep Abbas and Netanyahu talking. The longer they talk, the greater chance they have at success. And despite the intense pessimism, there is reason to believe that this time really can be different.First, violence is down substantially from years past, and that works to build confidence. Second, settlement building is also down, despite the constant tension on this subject. Third, the public on both sides supports a two-state solution. And fourth, the big push is coming from the US.
Chen Lin

Opinion: For Israel and Syria, peace is within reach - 0 views

  • The Obama administration has an opportunity to break the current logjam in the Middle East by focusing away from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict — and pushing for renewed Syrian-Israeli negotiations. The Syrian-Israeli track can move faster than Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, where the two sides are still far apart on the central issues: Israeli settlements, the fate of Palestinian refugees and the final status of Jerusalem. By contrast, the Syrians and Israelis mainly need to negotiate over the return of the Golan Heights, and related security guarantees and water access issues.
  • Unlike the weak Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas, Syrian President Bashar Assad can actually deliver on a peace deal. Such an agreement is possible during Obama's presidency, but it will not happen without the deep involvement of his administration. The United States has much to gain strategically from renewed Syrian-Israeli dialogue: Damascus could be pressed to play a more constructive role in the region, instead of being a spoiler. If there are serious negotiations, the United States can demand that Assad's regime stop interfering in Iraq, carry out domestic reforms, respect human rights and drop Syrian support for Hamas and other Palestinian groups that reject peace with Israel. To achieve peace, the United States must strongly push Israel back to negotiations and be willing to dispatch U.S. personnel as monitors of any final agreement.
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    How US intervention can help Israel and Syria reach an agreement and how that will help stabilize the Middle East.
Chen Lin

In Israeli settlements, residents and builders push back on 10-month freeze | csmonitor... - 0 views

  • But presumably to appease his right-wing constituents he allowed building to continue in East Jerusalem and on 3,000 housing units elsewhere in the West Bank.
  • Though limited in scope, the freeze has aggravated an ideological fault line between settlers and Netanyahu.
  • While his rejection earlier this year of President Obama's call for a comprehensive settlement freeze sparked the most public Israel-US spat in two decades, Netanyahu's slowdown has been praised by the administration. George Mitchell, Obama's special envoy for Middle East Peace, said last week that Netanyahu's move "falls short of a full settlement freeze, but it is more than any Israeli government has done before and can help movement toward agreement between the parties."
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  • Sfard said for a freeze to be effective, Israel's government needs to halt bureaucratic approval for future activity, or else building activity will pick up from where it left off at the end of the 10-month period.
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    Partial and ineffective freeze on settlement construction costs Net. with the far right, but appeases Obama.
Chen Lin

The Middle East consumes way too much oil - By Michael A. Levi | Foreign Policy - 0 views

  • . It's true that daily Chinese consumption surged from 4.8 million barrels per day in 2000 to 7.9 million barrels in 2008, while Indian demand rose from 2.1 to 3 million.
  • Middle Eastern countries will gobble up nearly 50 percent more oil than India in 2030, despite being home to just a fifth as many people. Oil: The Long Goodbye An FP Special Report The reason? Massive oil subsidies that put China and India to shame
  • A 20 percent cut in oil consumption by the world's wealthy countries in 2030 would completely offset the expected increase in Chinese demand; a similar cut in U.S. gas guzzling would neutralize the expected Indian increase
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    Sources of increased oil demand and how much it will have to be offset by wealthy countries.
Chen Lin

Israel, Lebanon, and the Middle East conflict / The Christian Science Monitor - CSMonit... - 1 views

  • The formation of a new government does not push back the specter of another war with Israel. In July 2006, Hezbollah abducted two Israeli soldiers in a cross-border raid, setting off a 34-day war that crippled Lebanon's infrastructure, displaced 1 million people, and killed more than 1,200 Lebanese – the majority of them civilians. Since that conflict ended, both sides have been preparing for a new round.Hezbollah leaders boast that the group now has an even larger and more potent cache of missiles than it did three years ago. Israeli officials, who are also escalating their war rhetoric, estimate Hezbollah's arsenal at between 40,000 and 80,000 rockets. On Nov. 3, the Israeli navy intercepted a ship in the Mediterranean Sea that was carrying 500 tons of rockets, mortars, and other weapons. Israeli officials claimed that it was an Iranian arms shipment intended to reach Hezbollah through Syria, which led to a new round of bellicose threats from both sides.The basic problem is that Hezbollah makes decisions that could lead to war – without consulting or involving the Lebanese state. And Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has threatened to hold the Lebanese government responsible for the militia's actions. This puts Hariri in a difficult position and it will make him reliant on the Obama administration to keep Israel at bay.
  • While Hezbollah has shown a willingness to adapt and evolve politically, it is unlikely that the movement would give up its weapons – or the idea of perpetual resistance – without a political settlement between the West and Hezbollah's main patron, Iran.The Obama administration can avert a new conflict by keeping its attention focused on Lebanon, continuing to support Hariri's government, and helping to strengthen state institutions like the Lebanese Army. But US officials must eventually reach out to Hezbollah, which is designated a terrorist organization by the State Department. Washington could begin indirect outreach through France and other Western countries that maintain contact with Hezbollah.
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    Good arguments for why Israel and Hezbollah are on the brink of conflict again, and how negotiations with Iran can solve. Possible impact for an Iran position.
Chen Lin

Baghdad bombings: Can Maliki provide security ahead of key vote? | csmonitor.com - 0 views

  • For Iraqi government officials who have touted the country's security gains, the attacks come as an "embarrassment," reports Al Jazeera. Though security has been heightened in preparation for the elections, one Iraqi government official told Al Jazeera's Zeina Khodr that there are still serious concerns that insurgents continue to infiltrate Iraqi security forces.
  • Despite this most recent attack, violence across Iraq last month dropped to its lowest level since the 2003 invasion with 122 people killed during the month of November, reports the Times of London. Still, US military officials and Iraqi leaders warn that violence will probably climb in the lead up to the election.
Ankur Mandhania

News Analysis - Both Iran and West Fear a Trap on Uranium Deal - NYTimes.com - 0 views

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    iran and west both really scared
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