Group items tagged

Yemen has frequently been described as a failing state -- and with good reason. Civil war, terrorism, a deepening secessionist movement and economic and demographic trends threaten to overpower the Yemeni government, provide a breeding ground for terrorists and destabilize the region. Yemen has often teetered on the brink of collapse, but it has never faced so many interconnected challenges at one time.

At the heart of the country's problems is a looming economic crisis. Oil is the source of nearly 80 percent of government revenue, and it is quickly running out. There are few viable options for a sustainable post-oil economy, and Yemen is already the poorest country in the Arab world with an unemployment rate conservatively estimated at 35 percent. Yemen's pending economic collapse has been greatly accelerated by the civil war in Saada. Government forces have been unable to decisively put down the rebels in the north of the country, and there is no military solution to the conflict. The toll in Saada has been severe, with extensive damage to infrastructure and an estimated 175,000 internally displaced people. The conflict's strain on the Yemeni army has led to questions about the military's ability to simultaneously engage in other operations, including counterterrorism. The government is spending foreign currency reserves at an alarming rate, recently estimated at more than $200 million per month. Spending on the war will create a major budget deficit next year. Every dollar spent on the civil war is a dollar not spent on addressing the underlying causes of instability in Yemen. Yemen also is facing a growing secessionist movement in the south of the country. When the war in Saada subsides, it is feared that the secessionist movement will again flare up.  The government does not control the entire territory of Yemen, and the emergence of additional areas outside of the capital of Sanaa's control will create more under-governed spaces that can be exploited by terrorist movements.

Military operations to kill or capture al Qaeda operatives will likely increase in 2010. These actions carry risks. Publicly acknowledged American involvement in counterterrorism operations in Yemen would be deeply unpopular in the country, likely undermine the legitimacy of the Yemeni government and feed into the grievances that help fuel al Qaeda militancy. Development assistance is one of the most effective tools available to address the interconnected long-term challenges facing Yemen. But, U.S. aid is disproportionately small considering the magnitude of the problems facing the country and Yemen's strategic importance to the United States. In addition to the reported $70 million of military and security assistance, the United States recently announced $121 million in development aid over the next three years, a significant increase from previous years and a vital step in the right direction. Still, the amount pales in comparison to the $1.5 billion allotted to Pakistan in the next year alone. This disparity persists even as U.S. officials increasingly cite Yemen as a terrorism and security priority second only to Afghanistan and Pakistan.

With an estimated presence of more than 1,000 Al Qaeda operatives, Yemen is steadily becoming more important in the war against terrorism. It is a large country on the Arabian Peninsula with some 22 million people with an unemployment rate of about 40 percent that is expected to double in the next few decades. The availability of water is dwindling, and the oil revenues upon which the country depends are quickly evaporating. By 2017, those revenues are expected to bottom out, according to a report published by BP and cited in a report by the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), a think tank in Washington.

The US has spent about $70 million this year to support training and buy equipment for Yemen, compared with no funding last year, according to the Associated Press. Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, on his military jet as he returned from Iraq and Afghanistan Sunday said he is comfortable with the level of support the US is currently providing.

Although it would like to do so, Al Qaeda does not have the capability of launching an attack on the scale of 9/11, when hijacked airliners flown by suicidal Islamist terrorists slammed into the twin towers of the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, killing thousands.But Al Qaeda still could carry out attacks against symbolic American targets such as the New York subway system or a passenger jet – two plots that were thwarted last year and could have killed hundreds of people. And, according to the report, “This level of threat is likely to persist for years to come.”Al Qaeda and its allies also have established the beginnings of a terrorist recruitment, radicalization, and operational infrastructure in the US, according to “Assessing the Terrorist Threat” by the Bipartisan Policy Center. (The center is a nonprofit organization established in 2007 by former Senate Majority Leaders Howard Baker, Tom Daschle, Bob Dole and George Mitchell – two Republicans and two Democrats.)

Although it would like to do so, Al Qaeda does not have the capability of launching an attack on the scale of 9/11, when hijacked airliners flown by suicidal Islamist terrorists slammed into the twin towers of the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, killing thousands.But Al Qaeda still could carry out attacks against symbolic American targets such as the New York subway system or a passenger jet – two plots that were thwarted last year and could have killed hundreds of people. And, according to the report, “This level of threat is likely to persist for years to come.”

Another Reuters report adds that Yemen has become an attractive home base to Al Qaeda since the group has come under pressure in Pakistan and Afghanistan and because the Yemeni government is incapable of controlling all its territory. The New York Times reported Sunday that because of this concern, the US is quietly aiding and equipping Yemeni security forces and providing them with intelligence. The Pentagon will spend $70 million over the next 18 months on counterterrorism in Yemen, and uses teams of special forces to train Yemen’s military. The Times reports that this more than doubles previous military aid levels.

The Wall Street Journal reports that the US involvement in Yemen may have provoked increased threats toward the West from Al Qaeda in Yemen. Those threats, particularly against Western aviation, increased in the months before Friday’s attempted bombing by Umar Farouk Abdul Mutallab. A growing number of militants fighting in Pakistan and Afghanistan are also retreating to Yemen, reports the Journal.

But while Kim Jong-un has support among North Korea's elite, the Chosun Ilbo notes in another article that he appears to be unpopular among the citizenry. The paper writes that while Kim Il-sung is still highly regarded by North Koreans, they only fear Kim Jong-il, and dismiss Kim Jong-un as a nobody.One defector told the newspaper that "The regime says Kim Jong-un has inherited the 'revolutionary achievements' and traditions from his grandfather, but the public has no illusions about him. People are simply speechless at Kim Jong-il's greed in placing his young son on the throne." Another called Kim Jong-un "a scoundrel who relies on his father's power to do whatever he wants. The distrust North Koreans feel toward Kim Jong-il will turn into animosity toward Kim Jong-un, who is said to be just like his father."

Earlier this year, the bipartisan Congressional Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism, chaired by former Sen. Bob Graham, Florida Democrat, and former Sen. Jim Talent, Missouri Republican, gave the United States a failing grade on biodefense preparedness. The report also warned that a weapon-of-mass-destruction (WMD) event is more likely than not by the end of 2013 and a biological attack is the most likely form.

This is a key point. Unlike nuclear devices, bioweapons could hit their strategic targets without fear of attribution or mutual assured destruction, thus rendering deterrence ineffective. In other words, absent better forensic detection, biodefense will depend mostly on preparedness to endure attacks rather than prevention. Mr. Hoffman further warns, "The same disguise that concealed the Soviet biological weapons program as civilian research could be used today to hide a dangerous germ warfare program anywhere."

The formation of a new government does not push back the specter of another war with Israel. In July 2006, Hezbollah abducted two Israeli soldiers in a cross-border raid, setting off a 34-day war that crippled Lebanon's infrastructure, displaced 1 million people, and killed more than 1,200 Lebanese – the majority of them civilians. Since that conflict ended, both sides have been preparing for a new round.Hezbollah leaders boast that the group now has an even larger and more potent cache of missiles than it did three years ago. Israeli officials, who are also escalating their war rhetoric, estimate Hezbollah's arsenal at between 40,000 and 80,000 rockets. On Nov. 3, the Israeli navy intercepted a ship in the Mediterranean Sea that was carrying 500 tons of rockets, mortars, and other weapons. Israeli officials claimed that it was an Iranian arms shipment intended to reach Hezbollah through Syria, which led to a new round of bellicose threats from both sides.The basic problem is that Hezbollah makes decisions that could lead to war – without consulting or involving the Lebanese state. And Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has threatened to hold the Lebanese government responsible for the militia's actions. This puts Hariri in a difficult position and it will make him reliant on the Obama administration to keep Israel at bay.

While Hezbollah has shown a willingness to adapt and evolve politically, it is unlikely that the movement would give up its weapons – or the idea of perpetual resistance – without a political settlement between the West and Hezbollah's main patron, Iran.The Obama administration can avert a new conflict by keeping its attention focused on Lebanon, continuing to support Hariri's government, and helping to strengthen state institutions like the Lebanese Army. But US officials must eventually reach out to Hezbollah, which is designated a terrorist organization by the State Department. Washington could begin indirect outreach through France and other Western countries that maintain contact with Hezbollah.

For Iraqi government officials who have touted the country's security gains, the attacks come as an "embarrassment," reports Al Jazeera. Though security has been heightened in preparation for the elections, one Iraqi government official told Al Jazeera's Zeina Khodr that there are still serious concerns that insurgents continue to infiltrate Iraqi security forces.

Despite this most recent attack, violence across Iraq last month dropped to its lowest level since the 2003 invasion with 122 people killed during the month of November, reports the Times of London. Still, US military officials and Iraqi leaders warn that violence will probably climb in the lead up to the election.

Pakistan’s recent “Rah-e-Nijat” (Path to Salvation) military operation in the South Waziristan agency of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) has achieved tremendous success since it began on October 17. It is believed that security forces should be able to clear the main towns of Taliban presence by early December 2009, when it starts snowing in the region (Daily Times [Lahore], November 1)

The recent successes in Pakistan’s military operation in Swat and South Waziristan testify to the fact that Pakistan has sufficient counter-insurgency capability to dislodge the Taliban from their strongholds in FATA and NWFP. This nullifies the previous assumptions regarding the Pakistani armed forces that they were tailored to fight conventional warfare against regular armies in plains and deserts and lacked the training and ability to conduct CI operations in mountainous terrain against non-state actors.

The public support which the Pakistan Army received from people in the conflict zone as well as from the entire country helped in carrying out the counter-insurgency operations successfully. The popularity of the Taliban – which remained quite high during 2003-2007 – dipped to an all time low. The successful conclusion of the first phase of the counter-insurgency would restore public confidence over the Pakistani armed forces and raise the morale of the security personnel

U.S. officials identify Balochistan as a critical center of Taliban and al-Qaeda activity.  Many observers believe that high-profile al-Qaeda figures and ranking Taliban members, including Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Muhammad Omar, have fled Afghanistan or Pakistan’s tribal areas for sanctuary in Balochistan.  The provincial capital of Quetta is believed to serve as a critical hub for financing and organizing Taliban and al-Qaeda operations

Islamabad worries that an escalation of the U.S.-led campaign in Helmand and other parts of Afghanistan will compel Afghan militants to use Balochistan as a temporary sanctuary to evade direct engagements with U.S. forces.  Afghan militants may also use Balochistan as a staging ground for attacks against NATO forces in Helmand and beyond.  In other words, Pakistan fears that Balochistan may go the way of FATA and the NWFP following the U.S. invasion and occupation of Afghanistan,

The problems affecting Balochistan are severe, considering that the region serves as one of the crucial logistical hubs sustaining the U.S.-led military campaign in Afghanistan.  Convoys ferrying fuel, vehicles, arms, food, and other crucial items to U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan travel through Balochistan. 

Since Zarqawi's death, al Qaeda's composition, formerly dominated by foreign jihadists, started to "Iraqify" through the recruitment of local fighters

Other factors account for al Qaeda's resilience. The fragile economic situation weakens Iraq's security capabilities, threatening to reverse gains in stability. Official Iraqi reports show how dramatic budget cuts have negatively affected security. This year, the government budget was reduced from $79 billion to $59 billion due to falling oil prices. The security sector has been particularly affected, with a freeze on new hires of police and security officers. This situation is worsened by widespread corruption and bribery, which not only plague Iraq's institutions but imperil the overall process of reconstruction.

Yet al Qaeda's vulnerabilities also mean that now is not the time for fatalism. Al Qaeda's tactics have alienated the local population, and its transnational, pan-Islamic ambition is inconsistent with most Iraqis' desire for national reconciliation.

The continuing attacks in Baghdad highlight a partial failure to achieve political reconciliation. While some of the alliances competing in the forthcoming election are non-sectarian, the blame for the attacks follows a familiar pattern. Sunnis say that the Shia government is failing to protect Iraqi citizens. Some Shias accuse Sunni politicians of secretly allying with insurgents, while other Shias point fingers within their divided camp. Hadi al-Ameri, head of the security committee in parliament and a leading opponent of the prime minister, Nuri al-Maliki, told al-Sharqiya TV that all the commanders of the security force in Baghdad, who are appointed by Mr Maliki, ought to be replaced. Such recriminations play into the hands of insurgents, thought to be Sunni extremists variously identified as Baathists, Saddamists or al-Qaeda in Iraq. A divided country is less likely to find the courage to turn up at polling stations. This could undermine the legitimacy of the next government and trigger further recriminations between the parties vying to form the next administration, especially if the bombings continue, as seems likely.