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Although it would like to do so, Al Qaeda does not have the capability of launching an attack on the scale of 9/11, when hijacked airliners flown by suicidal Islamist terrorists slammed into the twin towers of the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, killing thousands.But Al Qaeda still could carry out attacks against symbolic American targets such as the New York subway system or a passenger jet – two plots that were thwarted last year and could have killed hundreds of people. And, according to the report, “This level of threat is likely to persist for years to come.”Al Qaeda and its allies also have established the beginnings of a terrorist recruitment, radicalization, and operational infrastructure in the US, according to “Assessing the Terrorist Threat” by the Bipartisan Policy Center. (The center is a nonprofit organization established in 2007 by former Senate Majority Leaders Howard Baker, Tom Daschle, Bob Dole and George Mitchell – two Republicans and two Democrats.)

Although it would like to do so, Al Qaeda does not have the capability of launching an attack on the scale of 9/11, when hijacked airliners flown by suicidal Islamist terrorists slammed into the twin towers of the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, killing thousands.But Al Qaeda still could carry out attacks against symbolic American targets such as the New York subway system or a passenger jet – two plots that were thwarted last year and could have killed hundreds of people. And, according to the report, “This level of threat is likely to persist for years to come.”

U.S. officials identify Balochistan as a critical center of Taliban and al-Qaeda activity.  Many observers believe that high-profile al-Qaeda figures and ranking Taliban members, including Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Muhammad Omar, have fled Afghanistan or Pakistan’s tribal areas for sanctuary in Balochistan.  The provincial capital of Quetta is believed to serve as a critical hub for financing and organizing Taliban and al-Qaeda operations

Islamabad worries that an escalation of the U.S.-led campaign in Helmand and other parts of Afghanistan will compel Afghan militants to use Balochistan as a temporary sanctuary to evade direct engagements with U.S. forces.  Afghan militants may also use Balochistan as a staging ground for attacks against NATO forces in Helmand and beyond.  In other words, Pakistan fears that Balochistan may go the way of FATA and the NWFP following the U.S. invasion and occupation of Afghanistan,

The problems affecting Balochistan are severe, considering that the region serves as one of the crucial logistical hubs sustaining the U.S.-led military campaign in Afghanistan.  Convoys ferrying fuel, vehicles, arms, food, and other crucial items to U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan travel through Balochistan. 

With an estimated presence of more than 1,000 Al Qaeda operatives, Yemen is steadily becoming more important in the war against terrorism. It is a large country on the Arabian Peninsula with some 22 million people with an unemployment rate of about 40 percent that is expected to double in the next few decades. The availability of water is dwindling, and the oil revenues upon which the country depends are quickly evaporating. By 2017, those revenues are expected to bottom out, according to a report published by BP and cited in a report by the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), a think tank in Washington.

The US has spent about $70 million this year to support training and buy equipment for Yemen, compared with no funding last year, according to the Associated Press. Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, on his military jet as he returned from Iraq and Afghanistan Sunday said he is comfortable with the level of support the US is currently providing.

Another Reuters report adds that Yemen has become an attractive home base to Al Qaeda since the group has come under pressure in Pakistan and Afghanistan and because the Yemeni government is incapable of controlling all its territory. The New York Times reported Sunday that because of this concern, the US is quietly aiding and equipping Yemeni security forces and providing them with intelligence. The Pentagon will spend $70 million over the next 18 months on counterterrorism in Yemen, and uses teams of special forces to train Yemen’s military. The Times reports that this more than doubles previous military aid levels.

The Wall Street Journal reports that the US involvement in Yemen may have provoked increased threats toward the West from Al Qaeda in Yemen. Those threats, particularly against Western aviation, increased in the months before Friday’s attempted bombing by Umar Farouk Abdul Mutallab. A growing number of militants fighting in Pakistan and Afghanistan are also retreating to Yemen, reports the Journal.

Since Zarqawi's death, al Qaeda's composition, formerly dominated by foreign jihadists, started to "Iraqify" through the recruitment of local fighters

Other factors account for al Qaeda's resilience. The fragile economic situation weakens Iraq's security capabilities, threatening to reverse gains in stability. Official Iraqi reports show how dramatic budget cuts have negatively affected security. This year, the government budget was reduced from $79 billion to $59 billion due to falling oil prices. The security sector has been particularly affected, with a freeze on new hires of police and security officers. This situation is worsened by widespread corruption and bribery, which not only plague Iraq's institutions but imperil the overall process of reconstruction.

Yet al Qaeda's vulnerabilities also mean that now is not the time for fatalism. Al Qaeda's tactics have alienated the local population, and its transnational, pan-Islamic ambition is inconsistent with most Iraqis' desire for national reconciliation.

Yemen has frequently been described as a failing state -- and with good reason. Civil war, terrorism, a deepening secessionist movement and economic and demographic trends threaten to overpower the Yemeni government, provide a breeding ground for terrorists and destabilize the region. Yemen has often teetered on the brink of collapse, but it has never faced so many interconnected challenges at one time.

At the heart of the country's problems is a looming economic crisis. Oil is the source of nearly 80 percent of government revenue, and it is quickly running out. There are few viable options for a sustainable post-oil economy, and Yemen is already the poorest country in the Arab world with an unemployment rate conservatively estimated at 35 percent. Yemen's pending economic collapse has been greatly accelerated by the civil war in Saada. Government forces have been unable to decisively put down the rebels in the north of the country, and there is no military solution to the conflict. The toll in Saada has been severe, with extensive damage to infrastructure and an estimated 175,000 internally displaced people. The conflict's strain on the Yemeni army has led to questions about the military's ability to simultaneously engage in other operations, including counterterrorism. The government is spending foreign currency reserves at an alarming rate, recently estimated at more than $200 million per month. Spending on the war will create a major budget deficit next year. Every dollar spent on the civil war is a dollar not spent on addressing the underlying causes of instability in Yemen. Yemen also is facing a growing secessionist movement in the south of the country. When the war in Saada subsides, it is feared that the secessionist movement will again flare up.  The government does not control the entire territory of Yemen, and the emergence of additional areas outside of the capital of Sanaa's control will create more under-governed spaces that can be exploited by terrorist movements.

Military operations to kill or capture al Qaeda operatives will likely increase in 2010. These actions carry risks. Publicly acknowledged American involvement in counterterrorism operations in Yemen would be deeply unpopular in the country, likely undermine the legitimacy of the Yemeni government and feed into the grievances that help fuel al Qaeda militancy. Development assistance is one of the most effective tools available to address the interconnected long-term challenges facing Yemen. But, U.S. aid is disproportionately small considering the magnitude of the problems facing the country and Yemen's strategic importance to the United States. In addition to the reported $70 million of military and security assistance, the United States recently announced $121 million in development aid over the next three years, a significant increase from previous years and a vital step in the right direction. Still, the amount pales in comparison to the $1.5 billion allotted to Pakistan in the next year alone. This disparity persists even as U.S. officials increasingly cite Yemen as a terrorism and security priority second only to Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The continuing attacks in Baghdad highlight a partial failure to achieve political reconciliation. While some of the alliances competing in the forthcoming election are non-sectarian, the blame for the attacks follows a familiar pattern. Sunnis say that the Shia government is failing to protect Iraqi citizens. Some Shias accuse Sunni politicians of secretly allying with insurgents, while other Shias point fingers within their divided camp. Hadi al-Ameri, head of the security committee in parliament and a leading opponent of the prime minister, Nuri al-Maliki, told al-Sharqiya TV that all the commanders of the security force in Baghdad, who are appointed by Mr Maliki, ought to be replaced. Such recriminations play into the hands of insurgents, thought to be Sunni extremists variously identified as Baathists, Saddamists or al-Qaeda in Iraq. A divided country is less likely to find the courage to turn up at polling stations. This could undermine the legitimacy of the next government and trigger further recriminations between the parties vying to form the next administration, especially if the bombings continue, as seems likely.

With conditions deteriorating on the ground and the Taliban gaining strength across the country, coalition forces will be in an even worse position next year than they are now. The situation around the major cities of Jalalabad and Kabul is seriously deteriorating, and the state structure in the north is disappearing. In the southern city of Kandahar, a sustained U.S.-led effort has proved unable to dislodge the Taliban from their traditional stronghold; the Taliban have also launched a systematic campaign targeting anyone ready to work with the coalition, killing hundreds since last spring. Instead of being able to start pulling out troops next summer, as Obama has pledged, the United States will be forced to send additional troops just to hold ground. And the longer Washington waits, the harder it will be to negotiate. As the Taliban solidify their power, they will be less and less likely to talk. It's time to negotiate -- this is the only way forward.

the longer Washington waits, the harder it will be to negotiate. As the Taliban solidify their power, they will be less and less likely to talk.

With conditions deteriorating on the ground and the Taliban gaining strength across the country, coalition forces will be in an even worse position next year than they are now.