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Haydn W

Inflation Forecast 2014-2014: Continued Mild Price Increases - 1 views

www.forbes.com/...continued-mild-price-increases

Forbes Inflation Unemployment Phillips Curve Trade-off

shared by Haydn W on 03 May 14 - No Cached
  • Inflation is likely to remain mild in the next two years, but first a caution: none of the inflation forecasting models is doing a good job these days.
  • the Phillips Curve was our primary way of looking at inflation. William Phillips found an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment over the period 1861-1957. This simple approach was used here in the United States in the 1960s and 70s.
  • With lower unemployment you would expect greater inflation. However, the Phillips Curve does not explain why inflation didn’t go down much when our unemployment rate was high a few years ago.
  • ...4 more annotations...
  • Milton Friedman said “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon . . . .” The relationship was solid for a long time, though financial changes in the 1990s made the theory harder to apply.
  • Unfortunately, the expectations-augmented Phillips Curve has not worked well in recent years. One study found that the predicted inflation for 2010 was negative 4.3 percent, while actual inflation was still positive.
  • Different theories tell us that the actual dynamics by which inflation changes are influenced not only by unemployment but also by inflation expectations.
  • Two different money concepts have been used, the money supply (such as the M2 definition) and the monetary base Recent data for both concepts indicate that inflation should have been much higher in recent years. The fact that inflation has accelerated very little suggests that in the current environment, the money-inflation connection is not very tight.
  • Haydn W on 03 May 14
     
    This article from Forbes is primarily titled to be a forecast about inflation in the coming fiscal year but it also interestingly (and relevant to our studies) discusses the different arguments and criticism surrounding the modelled Phillips Curve. The article also contains an interesting graph that is based on recorded statistics about inflation and unemployment which helps to demonstrate the problems with the Phillips Curve model. 
Haydn W

Rightmove triples its estimate for housing price rises | Money | The Guardian - 0 views

www.theguardian.com/...-estimate-house-price-increase

The Guardian Money House Prices Scarcity Opportunity Cost UK Help to Buy

shared by Haydn W on 16 Sep 13 - No Cached
  • A leading estate agent has tripled its forecast for house price rises in 2013
  • Online estate agent Rightmove has raised its 2013 house price forecast for the third time this year to more than double the rate of inflation
  • The chain expects the average property price to increase by 6% this year
  • ...14 more annotations...
  • On Wednesday the Bank of England's financial policy committee
  • and what remedial measures
  • discuss the possibility of a property bubble
  • can be taken
  • The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics)
  • has called on the committee to cap annual house price growth at 5% a year.
  • Vince Cable, the business secretary, has warned of the risks of "returning to the problems of the last decade when housing got out of control,"
  • and said the chancellor should consider halting the second phase of his Help to Buy scheme.
  • The controversial mechanism, which
  • will allow people to buy homes worth up to £600,000 with a 5% deposit.
  • The Liberal Democrat president, Tim Farron, also attacked George Osborne's flagship scheme
  • The Rightmove report said the average asking price reached £245,495 in September, a 4.5% increase on the same month a year earlier.
  • Prices are rising fastest in greater London, up 8.2% over the past year to £493,748, and the West Midlands, up 6.8% to £195,429.
  • In London, prices are up in all boroughs except Barking & Dagenham (down 0.8% to £218,242). Prices in Croydon and Tower Hamlets rose by more than 2% in September alone.The most expensive homes are in Kensington and Chelsea, where the average home is priced at £2.16m – a 6.5% increase on last year.
  • Haydn W on 16 Sep 13
     
    This article explains how many organisations are forecasting a rise in house prices in my home country, the UK. It also details opposition by UK politicians to the Chancellor's 'Help to Buy' scheme which is supposed to help more people get on the property ladder. I believe this is related to what we are studying in Economics as it relates to houses being a scarce resource and how people have to choose between the increasing difficulties of getting on the property ladder and other living essentials in todays economy. (Opportunity Cost)
Pietro AA

S. Korea's Economy Grows More Than Forecast as Exports Climb - Bloomberg - 0 views

www.bloomberg.com/...forecast-as-exports-climb.html

aggregate demand inflation s.korea forecast exports climb economy

shared by Pietro AA on 24 Apr 14 - No Cached
  • South Korea’s economy expanded at a faster pace than forecast, showing momentum that could boost inflation pressures and build a case for a rate increase.
  • Gross domestic product grew 0.9
  • rivate consumption increased,
  • ...5 more annotations...
  • Exports weathered the won’s 8 percent climb against the dollar
  • rowth will accelerate to the quickest pace this year since 2010, helping push inflation up to its target band.
  • he economy is doing well broadly, across exports, consumption and jobs
  • ncrease in the nation’s exports f
  • Growth was constrained by weakness in business investment,
  • Pietro AA on 24 Apr 14
     
    great article about the macroeconomy of S.Korea. Maybe it gives too much info so it leaves less space for analysis.
Mariam P

November's Pound Euro Exchange Rate Forecasts for Period 2014-2015 - 1 views

www.poundsterlinglive.com/...forecasts-for-period-2014-2015

exchange rate

shared by Mariam P on 17 Nov 14 - No Cached
  • Mariam P on 17 Nov 14
     
    This article is a summery of GBP/EUR exchange rate forecasts issued by by Barclays, Goldman Sachs, HSBC and a Reuters Smart Estimate.
Mariam P

Premier Oil Drops as Production Forecast Misses Estimates - 1 views

www.bloomberg.com/...forecast-misses-estimates.html

efficiency

shared by Mariam P on 08 Feb 14 - No Cached
  • Mariam P on 08 Feb 14
     
    This article tells us that the "Premier Oil Plc (PMO)" fell as an output forecast missed analyst estimates.But they are planning to take into account production efficiency and to plan maintenance periods. After the output have to increase in 2014. Which will help them to get up again.
Yassine G

Pound, Dollar and Euro Forecasts and News Today: GBP Exchange Rates Driving the Agenda - 1 views

www.poundsterlinglive.com/...737-euro-rate-today-9999443-33

shared by Yassine G on 15 Nov 14 - No Cached
  • Yassine G on 15 Nov 14
     
    This article shows how predictions and forecasting influence exchange rates  
Yassine G

BBC News - Intel to cut 5% of staff after forecasting no growth this year - 0 views

www.bbc.co.uk/...technology-25771760

intel forecasting growth demand Production Supply Revenues

shared by Yassine G on 26 Jan 14 - No Cached
  • which
  • Revenues
  • Revenues at
  • ...10 more annotations...
  • which
  • Intel's division which makes chips for desktop computers fell
  • s chips for desktop computers fell
  • % in 2013.
  • However, the company said there had been signs in the past few months that the PC sector was "stabilising".
  • For the full year 2013, the firm reported a net profit of $9.6bn, down 13% from a year ago.
  • Intel's chief financial officer, Stacy Smith, said the division's revenues in 2014 would probably come in toward the bottom of the previous estimate of 10% to 15% growth.
  • 'Bringing innovation
  • That included a 3D-camera technology, where one of its depth sensors could be used to interpret gesture controls and to separate foreground objects from the background.
  • It said laptops featuring the technology would go on sale this year.
  • Yassine G on 26 Jan 14
     
    this is a very interesting article that demonstrates the total revenues and how they can fall or raise, it also compares different years' revenues and shows us how intel plans to overcome the fall in revenue. 
Hardy Hewson

UK Economy to hit Pre-recession Peak by Summer - 0 views

www.bbc.co.uk/...business-26504691

government macroeconomics UK recession recovery

shared by Hardy Hewson on 10 Mar 14 - No Cached
  • Hardy Hewson on 10 Mar 14
     
    The attached article concerns the apparent recovery of the British economy according to the business lobby group 'British Chambers of Commerce'. They forecast economic growth to reach 2.8% this year (a rise of 0.1% from previous forecasts). This is extremely pertinent given the imminent announcement of the new government budget on March 19th.
Haydn W

Falling oil prices offer the west a great chance to refashion itself. Let's seize it | ... - 1 views

www.theguardian.com/...west-chance-refashion-policies

The Guardian USA Russia Oil Prices Balance of Payments

shared by Haydn W on 05 Dec 14 - No Cached
  • Falling oil prices offer the west a great chance to refashion itself. Let’s seize it
  • For the past 18 months, the world’s biggest oil producer has been the US.
  • One first good result of this oil price shift, however, was witnessed at Opec’s meeting in Vienna last week. The once feared cartel of oil-exporting countries, with Saudi Arabia at its core, a cartel that at one time commanded more than half of global production, is now a shadow of its former self.
  • ...9 more annotations...
  • the US will maintain this new standing for the foreseeable future, according to official projections.
  • It should be no surprise, then, that in the past rising oil prices were associated with recessions and falling oil prices with booms. If the oil price carries on falling back towards $50 a barrel, and if history is any guide, the western economy should respond – to the good.
  • But although particular companies may lose out, the first-round effect of this fall should provide good news. High oil prices depress economic activity. They suck money from consumer spending and redirect it to oil-exporting countries, which typically hoard it in elephantine foreign exchange reserves or unspent  bank deposits. It is a tax by the few on the many.
  • With the US needing to buy less oil on international markets and China’s growth sinking to its lowest mark for 40 years, there is now, amazingly, the prospect of an oil glut. The oil price instantly nosedived to its lowest level for four years, around $70 a barrel – down more than a third in three months.
  • Suddenly, the balance of economic advantage with Russia, no less dependent on oil and gas exports, will flip. Russia’s 2014 budget was based on an oil price of $100 a barrel. At $70 a barrel, the economy will contract by at least 3% in 2015, the country will run a balance of payments deficit and the government’s finances will spin out of control.
  • The chances of Russia sustaining a surrogate war in Ukraine have suddenly been reduced. All good news.
  • But western governments cannot hope that economic benefits will arrive automatically. These are new times.
  • Uncertainty and fear abound. Interest rates in Britain alone have been pegged at 0.5% for more than five years. But still business is reluctant to invest, not knowing what technologies to back or not knowing how much demand there will be for new products and services. We live in an era of stagnation, “secular stagnation”
  • So falling oil prices offer the world economy a great opportunity. But if it is not leapt upon purposefully by aggressively expansionary economic policy, secular stagnation might worsen.
  • Haydn W on 05 Dec 14
     
    The recent fall in oil prices, largely due to America's newfound dominance in the market, will cause Russia to experience a balance of payments deficit, according to this article from the Guardian. This is based on Russia's overestimate of the forecast for the global oil price and can be said to be an example of how global prices often influence balance of payments for countries, especially when it concerns national resources.
Haydn W

IMF warns UK of lingering housing and mortgage market risks - Business News - Business ... - 3 views

www.standard.co.uk/...gage-market-risks-9780019.html

Supply-Side London UK Housing

shared by Haydn W on 07 Oct 14 - No Cached
  • IMF warns UK of lingering housing and mortgage market risks
  • The UK faces lingering risks from housing and mortgage markets despite remaining on track for the fastest growth among the world’s leading economies this year, the International Monetary Fund said today.
  • has pencilled in growth of 3.2% this year — unchanged from its last July update despite a slew of downgrades for several members of the stagnating eurozone.
  • ...8 more annotations...
  • This is the highest rate forecast among advanced economies, although the IMF has trimmed global forecasts amid fears over a “weak and uneven” recovery in Europe and parts of Asia.
  • The body, led by Christine Lagarde, said the “US and the UK in particular are leaving the financial crisis behind”
  • The Bank of England has identified the housing market as a “blinking warning light” on the economy’s dashboard following the introduction of the Help to Buy scheme last year
  • In June it introduced limits on high loan-to-income home loans to prevent borrowers over-extending themselves, while tighter mortgage lending criteria are slowing runaway prices.
  • The Bank’s latest credit conditions survey found a “significant” fall in the availability of home loans in the past three months after eight successive quarters of expansion.
  • The IMF also warned that more measures such as tax incentives and freeing up land were necessary to improve the rate of housebuilding and keep a lid on runaway house prices.
  • “Supply-side measures are crucial to safeguard housing affordability and mitigate financial stability risks,” it added.
  • Household debt levels remain high at 140% of GDP and, if the Bank’s limits on the lending market fail to gain traction, it may be forced to raise interest rates instead
  • Haydn W on 07 Oct 14
     
    This article from the London Evening Standard details how the IMF have warned the UK government over remaining household debt and the dangers it poses to the economy. The IMF have also called for 'supply side measures... to safeguard housing affordability' - a growing problem in both London and the UK as a whole.
Marenne M

Dutch Economy Emerging From Two-Year Recession - WSJ.com - 1 views

online.wsj.com/...702304815004579418580231847454

macroeconomic activity

shared by Marenne M on 11 Mar 14 - No Cached
  • he Dutch economy is emerging from a two-year long recession
  • The country's gross domestic product will expand by 0.75% in 2014, slightly higher than a previous forecast of 0.5% growth
  • The economy will grow by 1.25% in 2015, it added
  • ...4 more annotations...
  • CPB said the government's budget shortfall will narrow to 2.9% of GDP in 2014 and 2.1% in 2015
  • it was hit by the sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone and deep problems at home
  • A slump in the housing market has hit highly indebted households
  • he recovery will largely be driven by a pickup in exports as a result of the improving global and European economy
  • Marenne M on 11 Mar 14
     
    This article discusses how the Netherlands are finally picking up after a 2 year long recession. One of the main problems during the recession was that the Dutch citizens became afraid to spend money because they were unsure of their financial state in the near future. This caused a sort of glitch in the macroeconomic cycle of Holland, because people stopped spending and the companies stopped making as much income, therefore people got fired, and the cycle continues on. The economy in Holland is finally picking up and the GDP is said to rise by 0.75% this year.
fie dahl

Airbus raises demand forecast amid booming Asian market - 0 views

diigo.com/015zn1

Demand China flights

shared by fie dahl on 01 Oct 13 - No Cached
  • fie dahl on 01 Oct 13
     
    The article is about how the demand for flights in Asia - mostly China is rising. Last year 1 out of 4 people were on a flight and this will increase. Therefor the flight company Airbus has predicted that they need an increase in the amount of flights to 29,226 passenger and freighter jets in 20 years. This would have a total cost of $4.4tn.
Haydn W

Ukraine Uncertainty Depressing Growth and Investment | The Moscow Times - 5 views

www.themoscowtimes.com/...495734.html

Macroeconomic Activity Moscow Times Ukraine Russia

shared by Haydn W on 08 Mar 14 - No Cached
  • As world leaders increase or trash their political clout depending on their audience and the statements they make about the situation in the Ukraine, some analysts were revising Russian GDP growth estimates to as low as 1.1 percent for the year.
  • Wednesday was a calmer day on the stock markets, following a dip of 10.8 percent Monday morning that vaporized near $60 billion of valuation from Russian companies.
  • Although Russia has seen some short-term budget benefits from ruble devaluation and increasing oil prices, the current impasse is not helping to fight stagnation or attract investment.
  • ...6 more annotations...
  • The ruble strengthened slightly to 36 against the dollar and 49.4 against the euro Wednesday evening. This was well above the lows reached on Monday
  • Tightening fiscal policy was topped by possibly impending U.S. sanctions, including economic ones, followed by President Vladimir Putin's claims that Russia may use force in Ukraine if necessary.
  • The heap of these latest events has caused some analysts to revise their overall economy forecasts.
  • PSB Research said Wednesday it would decrease its initially modest GDP growth estimates for the year from the range of 1.5 to 1.8 percent to 1.1 to 1.3 percent.
  • Political standoff will also further stimulate the outflow of capital, Fedotkova said, as investors are reluctant to channel their money into the country that may be possibly involved in any kind of military activity
  • As for businesses, a recent survey done by the Gaidar Institute suggests that more than a third of CEOs and owners of private companies would consider investing in production this year if the price for equipment went down and if the macroeconomic outlook were more certain, Vedomosti reported Monday. At the same time macroeconomic uncertainty was a headache for only 10 percent of surveyed state-controlled companies. No margin of error was given for the survey.
  • Haydn W on 08 Mar 14
     
    This article explains how the recent stand-off crisis in Ukraine is having a negative effect on the Russian economy, with the Rouble taking a further fall and GDP growth estimates being revised downwards. Predictably sanctions imposed by the west on Russia in response to the occupation of Crimea, an autonomous region of Ukraine populated largely by ethnic Russians, have affected businesses in Russia. We learn from the article that some $60 billion valuation has been lost by Russian companies in light of the tensions. This article relates to the macroeconomic concept of circular flow being a complex process with international trade and governments being involved majorly in proceedings.
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