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Haydn W

Falling oil prices offer the west a great chance to refashion itself. Let's seize it | ... - 1 views

  • Falling oil prices offer the west a great chance to refashion itself. Let’s seize it
  • For the past 18 months, the world’s biggest oil producer has been the US.
  • One first good result of this oil price shift, however, was witnessed at Opec’s meeting in Vienna last week. The once feared cartel of oil-exporting countries, with Saudi Arabia at its core, a cartel that at one time commanded more than half of global production, is now a shadow of its former self.
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  • the US will maintain this new standing for the foreseeable future, according to official projections.
  • It should be no surprise, then, that in the past rising oil prices were associated with recessions and falling oil prices with booms. If the oil price carries on falling back towards $50 a barrel, and if history is any guide, the western economy should respond – to the good.
  • But although particular companies may lose out, the first-round effect of this fall should provide good news. High oil prices depress economic activity. They suck money from consumer spending and redirect it to oil-exporting countries, which typically hoard it in elephantine foreign exchange reserves or unspent  bank deposits. It is a tax by the few on the many.
  • With the US needing to buy less oil on international markets and China’s growth sinking to its lowest mark for 40 years, there is now, amazingly, the prospect of an oil glut. The oil price instantly nosedived to its lowest level for four years, around $70 a barrel – down more than a third in three months.
  • Suddenly, the balance of economic advantage with Russia, no less dependent on oil and gas exports, will flip. Russia’s 2014 budget was based on an oil price of $100 a barrel. At $70 a barrel, the economy will contract by at least 3% in 2015, the country will run a balance of payments deficit and the government’s finances will spin out of control.
  • The chances of Russia sustaining a surrogate war in Ukraine have suddenly been reduced. All good news.
  • But western governments cannot hope that economic benefits will arrive automatically. These are new times.
  • Uncertainty and fear abound. Interest rates in Britain alone have been pegged at 0.5% for more than five years. But still business is reluctant to invest, not knowing what technologies to back or not knowing how much demand there will be for new products and services. We live in an era of stagnation, “secular stagnation”
  • So falling oil prices offer the world economy a great opportunity. But if it is not leapt upon purposefully by aggressively expansionary economic policy, secular stagnation might worsen.
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    The recent fall in oil prices, largely due to America's newfound dominance in the market, will cause Russia to experience a balance of payments deficit, according to this article from the Guardian. This is based on Russia's overestimate of the forecast for the global oil price and can be said to be an example of how global prices often influence balance of payments for countries, especially when it concerns national resources.
Marenne M

Nigeria devalues currency as oil prices drop - FT.com - 5 views

  • Nigeria has devalued its currency by nearly 10 per cent and raised interest rates to record levels, in one of the clearest signs yet of how oil producing nations are struggling as energy prices drop sharply.
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    This article describes the devaluation of the fixed currency rate of Nigeria as a result of the decreased energy prices. Nigeria is an oil producing country and therefore earns a lot of its income through oil exports. Now that the prices of other energy has dropped, there is a lower demand for the Nigerian oil, leading to fewer exports. The Nigerian central bank has now devaluated its currency by 8.4 percent in the hope that the lower prices will encourage a greater demand for their oil exports.
Yassine G

The End Of Elastic Oil - Forbes - 1 views

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    This is a very interesting article that really helps understand this topic in depth and with real examples. Oil market is one of the largest in the world, this article talks about elasticity of demand and supply in this market. There is an explanation on the effects of different factors that determine the elasticity and what they do for this market. 
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    Although there are discovered new sources of oil (e.g. in Saudi Arabia), the suppliers have to drill deeper which is time-consuming and therefore the costs of production rise. 'In economic terms, the oil supply is becoming less elastic as new oil supplies come increasingly from unconventional oil.'
John B

Biz/ed - Price Elasticity | Biz/ed - 0 views

  • Oil plays a big part in its energy costs - energy accounts for around 30 - 40% of its refining costs and with oil prices having risen it has had a big impact on the company.
  • they are in a competitive market and it is likely that if they increased their prices, people would look elsewhere at rivals products or they would simply put off purchasing the items until a later stage.
  • Recent econometric research into the price elasticity of demand for sugar suggests that it is nearly zero
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    This article is about how the rising oil prices affect the companies that produce sugar. The article tells us that sugar is inelastic because of many factors, for example very few substitutes so by rising the prices of sugar in the market, it does not really affect the demand for it.
Marenne M

Regulating the petrol oligopoly - The Express Tribune - 1 views

  • In theory, petrol prices in Pakistan are deregulated, but in practice, the government still has considerable sway over oil pricing. This is because of the unusual structure of the oil marketing industry, which has fewer than a dozen national players, and the largest company in the industry is a state-owned entity that controls over two-thirds of the market.
  • It is also a market that sells a necessary product where many of the suppliers can often have local monopolies or oligopolies. In short, it is ripe for market manipulation, unless the government acts to control such activity.
  • What is the point of having a regulatory authority if it does not have the power to levy punishments for those who violate the law?
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  • ensure a level playing field and fair play
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    The article is about regulating the petrol oligopoly in Pakistan. It argues that the petrol-firms under oligopoly set their own high prices, and the government is deregulating the prices but the prices are still too high. 
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    Oligopolies contain firms that operate at a profit maximizing level and that in the short run can have burst of price changes. These changes in prices are due to an instant attempt at increasing the market share, however this leads to issues for other firms as well as consumers. In order for this to be prevented, government regulation is an option. This article describes how instead of regulating the industry the government is operating it, and what problems this causes
Pietro AA

U.S. Oil Prices: Let the Good Times Roll - 1 views

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    A great article talking about how the equilibrium of the oil market affects currencies, especially the dollar as barrels are mainly exchanged using dollars.
Haydn W

Taxing Carbon Is Like Taxing Diamonds | Mary Manning Cleveland - 0 views

  • Taxing Carbon Is Like Taxing Diamonds
  • To reduce carbon emissions, we must tax fossil fuels -- but, say the pundits, we can't do so because the tax would be regressive, clobbering the poor.
  • Imagine that we impose a sales tax on diamonds. Would we worry about the burden on middle-class purchasers of one-fourth-caret engagement rings? What about the part of the tax "passed back" onto the DeBeers Group? Not much sympathy for global monopolists either.
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  • Surprisingly, a carbon tax would operate much like a diamond tax, for reasons both of demand and supply.
  • Demand: The wealthy actually consume a disproportionate amount of carbon. Discussions of a carbon tax usually focus on the price of gasoline. One gallon of gas produces about 17 pounds of CO2. One metric ton is 2,204 pounds. So a $100 tax on a ton of CO2 comes to $0.77 per gallon -- a significant cost to low-income commuters and small truckers.
  • A May 2013 federal study of the Social Cost of Carbon estimated costs of additional CO2 emissions for 2010 to 2050 ranging from $27 to $221 per metric ton in 2050, depending on assumptions.
  • Demand elasticity for oil is low, about 0.5; so a 1 percent increase in oil price would cause a 0.5 percent decrease in consumption. That makes sense, since in the short run, it's hard for people to cut energy consumption, especially if they must drive to work. But, though numbers are hard to come by, elasticity of supply is much, much lower, for two reasons. First, oil production takes decades and billions in capital investment; producers cannot quickly increase or decrease supply. Second, oil producers form an international cartel, an organized mega-monopoly, which holds down production to drive up prices. Since they're already charging what the traffic will bear, they can't much raise prices to cover a tax.
  • As economists long ago figured out, buyers and sellers share a tax in inverse proportion to elasticity. Therefore, if supply elasticity of carbon is, say, 0.1, while demand elasticity is 0.5, the suppliers will pay five times as much of the tax as consumers. That reduces that $0.77 per gallon gas tax to only $0.13. Moreover, precisely because most of the tax falls on suppliers, it will generate plenty of revenue to help those unfortunate long-distance commuters and small truckers, to build more public transportation, to invest in renewable energy, and even to cut super-regressive taxes like the payroll tax.
  • According to Edward Wolff, in 2007, the top 1 percent in the U.S. owned 43 percent of non-home wealth, mostly securities, including of course energy company stocks and bonds. The top 10 percent of wealth holders owned 83 percent.
  • But the very poor don't drive or travel or occupy much space; the rich fly planes, including private jets; drive to low-density suburbs; occupy and heat multiple houses and hotels; and buy lots of stuff. Clearly the rich consume much more carbon per capita than the poor.
  • So we have good news and bad news. Good news: The cost of reducing carbon emissions will fall hardest on the 1 percent, who consume the most energy and own the energy companies. Bad news: Ditto. Expect a fight!
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    This article talks about the economic implications of imposing a tax on carbon emissions and how this would affect the different social classes of society in different ways. The article makes specific reference to economic theory and the elements on elasticity.
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    Taxation almost always decrease the economic surplus and therefore it makes a decline in effectiveness. In this case, the energy companies will be the most affected group.
Yassine G

SC: Gas price war between GAIL and GSPCL to be decided by arbitration - Economic Times - 0 views

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    this article talks about the price mechanism and influence on the price that could be caused by two corporations which are very strong on this market. both industires have impact on price and the dispute should be resolved by the supreme court.
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    This article gives us an idea on how prices of some necessities are set. In this case two of the biggest companies in the oil market in their area are having some disagreements on what the price should be. Since they have a big share of the market, they act like a monopoly. the supreme court intervention was required to help settle this dispute.
John B

Venezuela businesses brace for more price controls - 0 views

  • Jorge Botti, president of Fedecamaras, said the Law for Fair Costs and Prices will spook investors looking for wider profit margins and cause shortages of basic goods because makers of numerous products will likely scale back production.
  • He said sweeping price regulations applied to goods and services in every area of Venezuela’s economy will inevitably hurt businesses already struggling with socialist-orientated policies established by President Hugo Chavez.
  • While price controls already exist for some basic foods such as cooking oil and rice, the law taking effect Tuesday will extend them to a wider range of goods and give the government more enforcement authority.
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  • Officials will initially focus on setting price controls for food, personal hygiene and home cleaning products, construction materials, automobile parts, medicines and health care services before moving on to other areas of the economy, Granadillo said.
  • Luis Vicente Leon, director of the Venezuelan polling firm Datanalisis, which tracks the availability of basic goods and consumer prices, predicted the law won’t tame inflation and cause shortages of some goods.
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    This article is about trying to bring down the inflation by imposing price controls for food, personal hygiene, home cleaning products, construction materials, automobile parts, medicines and health care services. I personally did not like this article since there were very little explanation of why things would occur. It was just stated one person thinks this will be a good idea, and another person thinks it is a bad idea. Nothing about why they think so.
Haydn W

Fossil fuel subsidies 'killing UK's low-carbon future' | Environment | The Guardian - 0 views

  • Fossil fuel subsidies 'killing UK's low-carbon future'
  • despite commitments to cut carbon emissions and reduce "perverse" fossil fuel subsidies.
  • Britain is "shooting itself in the foot" by subsidising its coal, oil and gas industries by $4.2bn (£2.6bn) a year even as government reviews the "green levies" on energy bills which support energy efficiency and renewable power, according to a report published on Thursday.
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  • The figures from the Overseas Development Institute suggest that Britain is now the world's fifth largest subsidiser of fossil fuels
  • For every $1 spent to support renewable energy, another $6 were spent on fossil fuel subsidies
  • In 2011, the latest year for which data is available, Britain gave tax breaks of £280m to oil and gas producers and reduced VAT on fossil fuels by several billion pounds
  • Rich countries have committed to phase out "inefficient" fossil fuel subsidies but the ODI figures, drawn from the International energy agency, OECD and other sources, suggest global subsidies to fossil fuel producers totalled $523bn a year in 2011 – dwarfing subsidies to renewable energies.
  • £2.6bn yearly incentive favours investment in carbon at the expense of green energy, says thinktank
  • In effect, each of the 11.6bn tonnes of carbon emitted from the top 11 developed countries comes with an average subsidy of $7 a tonne – around $112 for every adult
  • The figures have been released as ministers prepare to go to Poland for the deadlocked UN climate talks and as uncertainty surrounds the future of government-mandated levies on energy bills that support fuel poverty schemes and renewable energy.
  • G20 governments accepted in 2009 that fossil fuel subsidies encourage wasteful consumption, reduce energy security, and undermine efforts to deal with the threat of climate change.
  • The report said: "Investors are being sent the wrong signals on two fronts as carbon prices decline and fossil fuel subsidies increase."
  • The report argues that fossil fuel subsidies also fail in one of their core stated objectives, which is to to benefit the poorest.
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    This article describes how the UK government is heavily subsidising fossil fuel producers instead of prioritising and investing money in renewable sources of energy. Although it is essential to keep crude oil and fossil fuel prices low, as they are essential to many businesses, consumers and indeed the country itself, the G20, of which the UK is part of, has made a commitment to phasing out fossil fuels in favour of greener and more sustainable energy sources. 
Talisha R

Price Controls on Gasoline - 0 views

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    This article is about price controls on gasoline. Gas prices have risen by 14%, this is due to rising oil prices. The price controls imposed on gas leads to a shortage of gasoline and rationing by the government. Also, black markets are likely to form and people will buy at very steep prices due to the price controls.
Sholpan Marabayeva

UPDATE 3-Russian central bank prepares strategy for sharp oil price drop - 1 views

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    This is an article on how Russia's central bank will address the sharp oil price drop. This article relates to what we are doing because it talks about the strategy of the Russian central bank. the central bank is a key tool for the monetary policy, which we are covering right now. Also this article briefly mentioned balance of payments, and the negative consequences of the bank failing to address this issue. It was a very interesting read.
Daniel B

Which oil & gas stocks to buy in volatile environment - 0 views

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    This article shows the best possible market where inelastic demand is common. The oil and gas are the products that have the price elasticity of demand below the one. It is caused by the cooperation of the industries and miners as well as it is really hard to find such a good substitutes for it.
Marenne M

Oil prices will drop if U.S. lifts crude export ban: study | Shanghai Daily - 2 views

  • Gasoline costs are tied to a global market, and this study shows that additional exports could help increase supplies, put downward pressure on the prices at the pump and bring more jobs to America.
  • if export was allowed, the cost of gasoline, heating oil and diesel fuel is projected to fall
  • United States is expected to shift from a net importer to a net exporter by 2020
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  • On an aggregate supply-demand basis, the country is rapidly approaching a self-sufficiency rate of 90 percent
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    This article describes how the U.S. is considering becoming more self-suffiecient in the fuel industry. The want to decrease their  imports and increase exports. Decreasing their imports will decrease import cost, increasing the aggregate supply. Simultaneously, increasing export will increase aggregate demand. This will shift the U.S. from a net importer to a net exporter.
Hyobin Lim

S.Korea's inflation falls to 7-month low on easing supply-side pressure - 2 views

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/business/2014-10/01/c_133686923.htm

supply side

Clemence Lafeuille

China to invest $20bn in struggling Venezuela - 0 views

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    This article is about China's FDI into Venezuela. Because of the recent drop in oil prices, Venezuela is suffering so China is placing FDIs in deals that include technology, housing and urban planning. The hope here is to develop a relationship between the two nations, but as we have seen in class it might not be truly beneficial to the LEDC.
Daniel Soto Aggard

South Korea Increases its Terms of Trade - 1 views

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    This article concerns South Korea and its increase in the terms of trade due to the cheaper oil prices. Its import price have fallen steeply compared to its export. Affecting the county's GDP and economic growth.
Haydn W

Ukraine Uncertainty Depressing Growth and Investment | The Moscow Times - 5 views

  • As world leaders increase or trash their political clout depending on their audience and the statements they make about the situation in the Ukraine, some analysts were revising Russian GDP growth estimates to as low as 1.1 percent for the year.
  • Wednesday was a calmer day on the stock markets, following a dip of 10.8 percent Monday morning that vaporized near $60 billion of valuation from Russian companies.
  • Although Russia has seen some short-term budget benefits from ruble devaluation and increasing oil prices, the current impasse is not helping to fight stagnation or attract investment.
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  • The ruble strengthened slightly to 36 against the dollar and 49.4 against the euro Wednesday evening. This was well above the lows reached on Monday
  • Tightening fiscal policy was topped by possibly impending U.S. sanctions, including economic ones, followed by President Vladimir Putin's claims that Russia may use force in Ukraine if necessary.
  • The heap of these latest events has caused some analysts to revise their overall economy forecasts.
  • PSB Research said Wednesday it would decrease its initially modest GDP growth estimates for the year from the range of 1.5 to 1.8 percent to 1.1 to 1.3 percent.
  • Political standoff will also further stimulate the outflow of capital, Fedotkova said, as investors are reluctant to channel their money into the country that may be possibly involved in any kind of military activity
  • As for businesses, a recent survey done by the Gaidar Institute suggests that more than a third of CEOs and owners of private companies would consider investing in production this year if the price for equipment went down and if the macroeconomic outlook were more certain, Vedomosti reported Monday. At the same time macroeconomic uncertainty was a headache for only 10 percent of surveyed state-controlled companies. No margin of error was given for the survey.
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    This article explains how the recent stand-off crisis in Ukraine is having a negative effect on the Russian economy, with the Rouble taking a further fall and GDP growth estimates being revised downwards. Predictably sanctions imposed by the west on Russia in response to the occupation of Crimea, an autonomous region of Ukraine populated largely by ethnic Russians, have affected businesses in Russia. We learn from the article that some $60 billion valuation has been lost by Russian companies in light of the tensions. This article relates to the macroeconomic concept of circular flow being a complex process with international trade and governments being involved majorly in proceedings.
Pietro AA

Origin says solar and storage coming quicker than thought - 0 views

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    This is an interesting artice that shows how solar phtovoltaic is taking over, reducing the demand of substitute sources of energy but mostly, increasing their elasticity. With PV on the market, more people will be ready to abandon coal or oil for this clean and durable energy source.
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