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Haydn W

Inflation Forecast 2014-2014: Continued Mild Price Increases - 1 views

  • Inflation is likely to remain mild in the next two years, but first a caution: none of the inflation forecasting models is doing a good job these days.
  • the Phillips Curve was our primary way of looking at inflation. William Phillips found an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment over the period 1861-1957. This simple approach was used here in the United States in the 1960s and 70s.
  • With lower unemployment you would expect greater inflation. However, the Phillips Curve does not explain why inflation didn’t go down much when our unemployment rate was high a few years ago.
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  • Milton Friedman said “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon . . . .” The relationship was solid for a long time, though financial changes in the 1990s made the theory harder to apply.
  • Unfortunately, the expectations-augmented Phillips Curve has not worked well in recent years. One study found that the predicted inflation for 2010 was negative 4.3 percent, while actual inflation was still positive.
  • Different theories tell us that the actual dynamics by which inflation changes are influenced not only by unemployment but also by inflation expectations.
  • Two different money concepts have been used, the money supply (such as the M2 definition) and the monetary base Recent data for both concepts indicate that inflation should have been much higher in recent years. The fact that inflation has accelerated very little suggests that in the current environment, the money-inflation connection is not very tight.
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    This article from Forbes is primarily titled to be a forecast about inflation in the coming fiscal year but it also interestingly (and relevant to our studies) discusses the different arguments and criticism surrounding the modelled Phillips Curve. The article also contains an interesting graph that is based on recorded statistics about inflation and unemployment which helps to demonstrate the problems with the Phillips Curve model. 
Haydn W

Japan's consumer inflation set to reach five-year high | World news | The Guardian - 0 views

  • Country sees core consumer prices soar as sales tax hike forms part of PM Shinzo Abe's plan for reviving moribund economy
  • Core consumer prices in Tokyo, a leading indicator of nationwide inflation, appear to have risen by the largest amount for 22 years in April after an increase in Japan's sales tax drove up prices
  • The poll also suggested the headline figure for Japan's nationwide consumer inflation may have reached a five-year high in March
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  • Higher inflation is a key aim of the economic policies of the country's prime minister, Shinzo Abe, who was elected in 2012
  • Japanese consumer prices are expected to keep showing steady headway towards the Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target. But the erosion of consumer spending power due to the sales tax increase – to 8% from 5% – underlines the need for long-stagnant wages to catch up with inflation to underpin consumption and help economic recovery.
  • The core consumer price index for Tokyo, available a month before the nationwide data, is likely to have increased 2.8% in April from a year earlier
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    Japan's inflation rate continues to rise according to this article from the Guardian. Prime minister Shinzo Abe aims to boost the inflation rate in the country to an approximate 2% level but, as typical with many countries, wages have not caught up with these levels and thus consumer spending power has been reduced drastically. Other interesting things to note are the rise in electricity and gas prices contributing to the increased CPI data.
Marenne M

There Is No Evidence Inflation Is Hitting the Poor Hardest - 1 views

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    This article describes how the CPI works and how inflation affects different groups of people with different incomes differently. Ben Casselman claims that inflation is higher for the poor households, by looking at the poor separately instead of as an average with the rest of the CPI. This way he says that he can show that the poor spend differently than the rich and that therefore the inflation is higher for them. This is not evidence, however, because inflation is about the rising of prices, and the prices rise equally no matter whether you are rich or poor. The only difference is the impact it has on the different groups.
John B

Reserve Bank India may eventually tighten rates to tame inflation: HSBC - The Economic ... - 0 views

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    This article is dealing with the inflation in India. The inflation in India are seemed to be sticky, but due to El Nino (the warmer-than-average sea surface temperature in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean). It contributes to extreme droughts that makes the price of food increase, and therefore the inflation for food increase
Amanda Anna G

Wage rises outstrip inflation for first time in six years - Telegraph - 1 views

  • Wage rises outstrip inflation for first time in six years
  • Wage rises are outstripping inflation for the first time in six years, official figures will show on Wednesday, leading to claims that the cost of living crisis is at an end.
  • Inflation figures showed a fall for the sixth month in succession to 1.6 per cent, leading Mr Osborne to say that it was “welcome news for families”. Meanwhile, the Office for National Statistics is expected to announce that regular pay is rising at a rate of 1.8 per cent, up from 1.3 per cent.
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    This article is about inflation, and that it has fallen after six months to 1.6 per cent. However, regular pay is  expected to rise in rate from 1.3 per cent to 1.8 per cent. 
Mariam P

Bank of Israel Says Action Needed to Lift Inflation to Target - 5 views

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    The article is about the inflation rate in Israel. Now the inflation rate has its lowest level in the past seven years. The central bank of Israel is worried and suggests some actions that will help to return the inflation rate to the price stability.
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    This article is about the inflation rate in Israel and how it is approaching 0. This is critical and Israel has recognised the need to bring back inflation rates to the government's target rate.
Yassine G

Indonesia's inflation seen slowing in April - 0 views

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    This article is not very long, however, we can see a lot of the concepts studied this week within the article. It is clear that Indonesia has an independent central bank. It is also clear that some actions are being taken in order to reduce inflation and they seem to be successful as inflation has actually fallen, however, this small amount of change could be good in the long run. 
Yassine G

Yellen: Unemployment and Inflation Still Short of Fed's Goals - MarketPulse - 1 views

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    This article talks about the inflation and unemployment rates in the United States. According to the Federal Reserve Chair, the economy is still unstable as unemployment rates exceed the Fed's goals, while inflation rates need a boost to achieve the target of 2%. The article suggests that monetary policies are going to be used in order to achieve the macroeconomics target of the USA. 
Marenne M

Wages beat inflation as unemployment falls below 7% | Economy | The Guardian - 0 views

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    This article describes how the trade-off in Britain between unemployment and inflation is improving. It states how finally after several years, the rate of increase in wages is larger than the increase in the rate of inflation, causing a greater demand for work, and decreasing unemployment.
Hyobin Lim

Venezuela's New Exchange Rate System Is Paying Off - 2 views

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    Venezuela is known to have a higher inflation than that of its trading partners. In the fall of 2012, Venezuela's inflation and the black market rate for the dollar both began to rise. However, the government announced a new system, SICAD II, on February 19 to break the cycle of inflation-depreciation. So far, the new system has tamed the black market. It is predicted that SICAD II will draw currency exchanges away from the black market, but it also stated that it will worsen the inflation problem.
Fiete M

Rajan Needs Help From Delhi in Inflation Fight - 0 views

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    This article shows how elastic Indias currency the Rupie is, and how a small increase in interest rate can cause a huge increase in inflation
Zuzanna G

Fed must choose: More jobs or less inflation - 1 views

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    This article deals with the connection between inflation and unemployment, which is one of the current issues we're discussing.
Clemente F

Euro zone inflation drops to lowest since 2009 - 4 views

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    The article discusses inflation in the eurozone.
Hyobin Lim

S.Korea's inflation falls to 7-month low on easing supply-side pressure - 2 views

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/business/2014-10/01/c_133686923.htm

supply side

John B

Venezuela businesses brace for more price controls - 0 views

  • Jorge Botti, president of Fedecamaras, said the Law for Fair Costs and Prices will spook investors looking for wider profit margins and cause shortages of basic goods because makers of numerous products will likely scale back production.
  • He said sweeping price regulations applied to goods and services in every area of Venezuela’s economy will inevitably hurt businesses already struggling with socialist-orientated policies established by President Hugo Chavez.
  • While price controls already exist for some basic foods such as cooking oil and rice, the law taking effect Tuesday will extend them to a wider range of goods and give the government more enforcement authority.
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  • Officials will initially focus on setting price controls for food, personal hygiene and home cleaning products, construction materials, automobile parts, medicines and health care services before moving on to other areas of the economy, Granadillo said.
  • Luis Vicente Leon, director of the Venezuelan polling firm Datanalisis, which tracks the availability of basic goods and consumer prices, predicted the law won’t tame inflation and cause shortages of some goods.
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    This article is about trying to bring down the inflation by imposing price controls for food, personal hygiene, home cleaning products, construction materials, automobile parts, medicines and health care services. I personally did not like this article since there were very little explanation of why things would occur. It was just stated one person thinks this will be a good idea, and another person thinks it is a bad idea. Nothing about why they think so.
Amanda Anna G

Venezuela to toughen price controls, set profits - Yahoo News - 0 views

  • CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is extending price controls and will place limits on profits as he extends attempts to curb the galloping inflation that is eroding support for his rule.
  • Maduro made the announcement in a late-night television address Sunday in which he also vowed to step up inspections of businesses selling shoes, clothing, automobiles and other goods to make sure they aren't gouging consumers.
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    In Venezuela, the president Nicolas Maduro has extended price controls to prevent the inflation that is (against) support for his rule. "We can't allow our hard currency to be used to rob people through the sale of these goods." he harangued businessmen he accuses of usury. This article relates to price controls and politics, and shows how price controls might look like when a country is ruled by dictatorship.
Hardy Hewson

Office of National Statistics: Wages Meet Inflation After Six Years - 0 views

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    This article concerns the publication by the Office of National Statistics that, after six years, the weekly wages have met inflation rates.
Pietro AA

S. Korea's Economy Grows More Than Forecast as Exports Climb - Bloomberg - 0 views

  • South Korea’s economy expanded at a faster pace than forecast, showing momentum that could boost inflation pressures and build a case for a rate increase.
  • Gross domestic product grew 0.9
  • rivate consumption increased,
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  • Exports weathered the won’s 8 percent climb against the dollar
  • rowth will accelerate to the quickest pace this year since 2010, helping push inflation up to its target band.
  • he economy is doing well broadly, across exports, consumption and jobs
  • ncrease in the nation’s exports f
  • Growth was constrained by weakness in business investment,
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    great article about the macroeconomy of S.Korea. Maybe it gives too much info so it leaves less space for analysis.
Daniel B

long- and short-term unemployment have similar inflation impact - 3 views

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    This article deals with the long- and short term unemployment and their impact on inflation. Federal Reserve's paper gives doubts whether there is any difference between them. Worth looking through!
Clemente F

Low Inflation Simply Reflecting Weak Aggregate Demand - 1 views

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    This article discusses how the low inflation is simply the reflection of a week aggregate demand.
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