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Amanda Anna G

Centre for Policy Studies: Productivity is Key to Securing UK's Economic Recovery - 1 views

  • Centre for Policy Studies: Productivity is Key to Securing UK's Economic Recovery
  • Yesterday saw the release of another good set of jobs figures. Employment rose and youth unemployment and long term unemployment fell. Nevertheless, to secure the recovery and generate sustainable real wage rises, we need to break the decade long stagnation in productivity which is holding back our economy.
  • These increases in employment and hours worked have been crucial in restoring economic growth.
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  • However, at some point the gains to be made from increasing the number of workers and increasing the number of hours will diminish. Education and welfare reforms combined with more robust growth in aggregate demand will cause the pool of available workers to shrink. When we reach that point, productivity will need to rise to support output growth and real wage rises.
  • Weak demand and labour hoarding have often been cited as the causes for this sustained weakness. However, stronger growth in demand in 2013 has not led to significant increases in output per hour. Rising aggregate demand must surely lead to some increases in productivity over time but it is clear that other structural reasons are holding back productivity growth.
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    This article discusses how to secure the UK's economic recovery. It is suggested that increase in employment and hours worked could restore economic growth. At some point, this increase will diminish due to growth in the aggregate demand combined with education and welfare reforms that results in a decrease in the available workers. However, it is argued that rising aggregate demand would lead to increase in the productively over time, but other reasons are holding back productivity growth. 
Haydn W

France's Fiscal Policy Targets Very Challenging Says IMF - NASDAQ.com - 0 views

  • PARIS--French President Francois Hollande has chosen the right path to repair the country's economy and finances, but its fiscal targets are very challenging, the International Monetary Fund said Thursday.
  • At the start of the year, the socialist leader switched from a policy of tax increases to spending cuts to bring down the budget deficit.
  • The planned reduction in taxes mean that the cutbacks to spending relative to trend will need to be very large if public finances are to be brought back to balance
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  • If the government delivers the EUR50 billion ($68.5 billion) of savings over 2015 to 2017 that would be "remarkable by historical standards," the IMF said.
  • data on Thursday showed the French economy remained weak at the start of this year, while Germany posted better-than-expected growth. France escaped the wider euro-zone recession that followed the bloc's debt crisis, but it has failed to post strong growth for the last two years and the government has repeatedly missed its targets for bringing down the deficit.
  • Mr. Hollande launched a Responsibility Pact, under which payroll taxes on businesses would be cut in an effort to boost investment and recruitment
  • The IMF said the measures in the Responsibility Pact would only slowly boost growth to around 1% this year and 1.5% in 2015. It also warned there are risks of a weaker rebound and that inflation would remain around 1% with the economy operating well below capacity.
  • The IMF said the European Central Bank--which indicated last week it may launch stimulus measures in June--could do more to help France meet its targets.
  • "More accommodative monetary conditions would help with the implementation of the fiscal program and bring forward the benefits of structural reforms," the fund said.
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    This article details France's success in it's road to recovery following the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis. This week the IMF has hailed president François Hollande's cutback path to repair the countries economy but commented that his targets may be 'very challenging.' This comes after the French government has delivered vast savings through austerity measures whilst retaining general stability despite the rise of far-right groups like The Front National. In my opinion for a country in the eurozone Hollande's France seems to be doing well for itself on the road to recovery and could set an example for other Eurozone countries, like Greece and Portugal.
Haydn W

Japan's consumer inflation set to reach five-year high | World news | The Guardian - 0 views

  • Country sees core consumer prices soar as sales tax hike forms part of PM Shinzo Abe's plan for reviving moribund economy
  • Core consumer prices in Tokyo, a leading indicator of nationwide inflation, appear to have risen by the largest amount for 22 years in April after an increase in Japan's sales tax drove up prices
  • The poll also suggested the headline figure for Japan's nationwide consumer inflation may have reached a five-year high in March
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  • Higher inflation is a key aim of the economic policies of the country's prime minister, Shinzo Abe, who was elected in 2012
  • Japanese consumer prices are expected to keep showing steady headway towards the Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target. But the erosion of consumer spending power due to the sales tax increase – to 8% from 5% – underlines the need for long-stagnant wages to catch up with inflation to underpin consumption and help economic recovery.
  • The core consumer price index for Tokyo, available a month before the nationwide data, is likely to have increased 2.8% in April from a year earlier
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    Japan's inflation rate continues to rise according to this article from the Guardian. Prime minister Shinzo Abe aims to boost the inflation rate in the country to an approximate 2% level but, as typical with many countries, wages have not caught up with these levels and thus consumer spending power has been reduced drastically. Other interesting things to note are the rise in electricity and gas prices contributing to the increased CPI data.
Daniel B

Five economic issues that have the RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan worried - 1 views

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    This article talks about five important economical problems
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    ("Growth in 2013-14 is likely...) NEW DELHI: In its macroeconomic Review of the economy, the Reserve Bank of India has underlined various risks to a sustained recovery for the economy. RBI is of the opinion that a durable domestic recovery remains contingent on addressing persistent inflation and bottlenecks facing the mining and infrastructure sectors.
Hardy Hewson

UK Economy to hit Pre-recession Peak by Summer - 0 views

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    The attached article concerns the apparent recovery of the British economy according to the business lobby group 'British Chambers of Commerce'. They forecast economic growth to reach 2.8% this year (a rise of 0.1% from previous forecasts). This is extremely pertinent given the imminent announcement of the new government budget on March 19th.
Clemence Lafeuille

France's October Current Account Deficit Narrows to €0.9billion - 0 views

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    Thus article, although short, gives precise numbers on France's current account deficit. It illustrates with numbers the size that a current account can be, and how in France it is currently being reduced, which is another proof of the recovery Europe is having.
Haydn W

The return of the US dollar | Mohamed El-Erian | Business | theguardian.com - 4 views

  • The return of the US dollar The resurgence of the US currency could be the first promising step in steering the world economy away from crisis
  • The US dollar is on the move. In the last four months alone, it has soared by more than 7% compared with a basket of more than a dozen global currencies, and by even more against the euro and the Japanese yen.
  • Two major factors are currently working in the dollar’s favour
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  • Second, after a period of alignment, the monetary policies of these three large and systemically important economies are diverging, taking the world economy from a multi-speed trajectory to a multi-track one.
  • First, the United States is consistently outperforming Europe and Japan in terms of economic growth and dynamism – and will likely continue to do so – owing not only to its economic flexibility and entrepreneurial energy, but also to its more decisive policy action since the start of the global financial crisis.
  • With higher US market interest rates attracting additional capital inflows and pushing the dollar even higher, the currency’s revaluation would appear to be just what the doctor ordered when it comes to catalysing a long-awaited global rebalancing – one that promotes stronger growth and mitigates deflation risk in Europe and Japan.
  • ECB President Mario Draghi signalled a willingness to expand his institution’s balance sheet by a massive €1 trillion ($1.25 trillion).
  • Furthermore, sudden large currency moves tend to translate into financial-market instability.
  • There is also the risk that, given the role of the ECB and the Bank of Japan in shaping their currencies’ performance, such a shift could be characterized as a “currency war” in the US Congress, prompting a retaliatory policy response.
  • Today, many of these countries have adopted more flexible exchange-rate regimes, and quite a few retain adequate reserve holdings.
  • an appreciating dollar improves the price competitiveness of European and Japanese companies in the US and other markets
  • But a new issue risks bringing about a similarly problematic outcome: By repeatedly repressing financial-market volatility over the last few years, central-bank policies have inadvertently encouraged excessive risk-taking, which has pushed many financial-asset prices higher than economic fundamentals warrant.
  • This is not to say that the currency re-alignment that is currently underway is necessarily a problematic development; on the contrary, it has the potential to boost the global economy by supporting the recovery of some of its most challenged components. But the only way to take advantage of the re-alignment’s benefits, without experiencing serious economic disruptions and financial-market volatility, is to introduce complementary growth-enhancing policy adjustments, such as accelerating structural reforms, balancing aggregate demand, and reducing or eliminating debt overhangs.
  • The US dollar’s resurgence, while promising, is only a first step. It is up to governments to ensure that the ongoing currency re-alignment supports a balanced, stable, and sustainable economic recovery. Otherwise, they may find themselves again in the unpleasant business of mitigating financial instability.
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    This article details the so called resurgence of the US dollar, in terms of currency value. The currency itself has risen by around 7% against other currencies but Guardian economist Mohamed El-Erian warns that without the appropriate accompanying central bank policies, the rise of the dollar could cause further market volatility and at worst a new crash. El-Erian calls for governments to enact policy to support balance the current currency realignment. 
Marenne M

Dutch Economy Emerging From Two-Year Recession - WSJ.com - 1 views

  • he Dutch economy is emerging from a two-year long recession
  • The country's gross domestic product will expand by 0.75% in 2014, slightly higher than a previous forecast of 0.5% growth
  • The economy will grow by 1.25% in 2015, it added
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  • CPB said the government's budget shortfall will narrow to 2.9% of GDP in 2014 and 2.1% in 2015
  • it was hit by the sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone and deep problems at home
  • A slump in the housing market has hit highly indebted households
  • he recovery will largely be driven by a pickup in exports as a result of the improving global and European economy
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    This article discusses how the Netherlands are finally picking up after a 2 year long recession. One of the main problems during the recession was that the Dutch citizens became afraid to spend money because they were unsure of their financial state in the near future. This caused a sort of glitch in the macroeconomic cycle of Holland, because people stopped spending and the companies stopped making as much income, therefore people got fired, and the cycle continues on. The economy in Holland is finally picking up and the GDP is said to rise by 0.75% this year.
Aleksi B

Spain unemployment to take 10 years to recover - report - RT Business - 1 views

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    In this article stated that Spain's largest bank made a claim saying the unemployment will take over a decade just to fix. Spain are in a large amount of debt as they rose from last year and the Spanish research and development spending is 70% below the EU level
Haydn W

Mexican Central Bank Head Warns of Spillover Effects of Dramatic Monetary Policies - WS... - 0 views

  • SINTRA, Portugal—The head of Mexico's central bank said Tuesday that he supports the dramatic measures that central bankers in advanced economies have taken to stabilize their economies, but emerging markets must be mindful of the spillover effects these policies may have.
  • "The unconventional monetary policies have…established the ground for a recovery in economic activity," said Agustin Carstens, governor of Mexico's central bank
  • The inflows have led to higher exchange rates in emerging markets, Mr. Carstens said, weakening exports, as well as a compression of interest rates, leading to bubbles in some real-estate markets.
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  • One byproduct of these policies has been to pump new money into financial markets. Some of that money has found its way to emerging markets as investors sought higher-yielding assets.
  • "Authorities need to think about how they can spread, through time, the adjustment process,"
  • More broadly, emerging economies "shouldn't depend on advanced economies to generate growth," Mr. Carstens said.
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    Agustin Carstens, governor of the Central Bank of Mexico warns about the spillover affects into the developing world from advanced economies' banks' monetary policies. Money has found its way into emerging markets leading to higher exchange rates and weakening exports according to Carstens. This is a dangerous bubble that could be liable to burst should growth pick up soon. Overall this article provides an interesting insight into how one countries policy choices can have global consequences and how international economics really is.
John B

Drop in U.S. Jobless Claims, Rising Consumer Confidence Point to Recovery - Bloomberg - 2 views

  • Fewer Americans filed claims for jobless benefits last week and consumer confidence stabilized
  • indicating strengthening sales in the U.S. and overseas are helping manufacturers like United Technologies Corp. (UTX)
  • We have an economy that is growing solidly,
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  • A slowdown in firings and growing payrolls may spur further gains in consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy.
  • report today showed orders placed with factories unexpectedly fell in February for the first time in four months, reflecting weaker demand for capital goods and military aircraft.
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    This article is dealing with the economy in the U.S. It starts with stating that consumer confidence is stabilized, which could be because of the growing economy in the U.S. For example, the sales in U.S. and overseas are strengthen. One could also see from this article that the amount of people being fired from their jobs decrease which contributes to a growing consumer spending. Although, the demand for capital goods and military aircraft is becoming weaker.
Clemente F

U.K. Balance of Payments Worsens - 0 views

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    The article discuses how the balance of payments in the united kingdom worsened. The article claims that the economic recovery the united kingdom is in doubt because its balance of payments is deteriorating.
Daniel Soto Aggard

Does the UK have a £70bn deficit problem? - 2 views

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    The UK is currently having an extreme deficit in their balance of payments. They have a £70 billion deficit in their current balance of payments. This has been strongly appearing since the beginning of the 2000s. Even now when they're in recovery their balance of payments is still very negative. The UK haven't had a surplus since 1997, this brings up the facts that the UK is the bigger country with a deficit in Europe.Although they're slowly increasing their trade this urges the matter of: how can the UK come out of this deficit in time before there are any severe consequences onto the population of the UK and the world?
Haydn W

IMF warns UK of lingering housing and mortgage market risks - Business News - Business ... - 3 views

  • IMF warns UK of lingering housing and mortgage market risks
  • The UK faces lingering risks from housing and mortgage markets despite remaining on track for the fastest growth among the world’s leading economies this year, the International Monetary Fund said today.
  • has pencilled in growth of 3.2% this year — unchanged from its last July update despite a slew of downgrades for several members of the stagnating eurozone.
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  • This is the highest rate forecast among advanced economies, although the IMF has trimmed global forecasts amid fears over a “weak and uneven” recovery in Europe and parts of Asia.
  • The body, led by Christine Lagarde, said the “US and the UK in particular are leaving the financial crisis behind”
  • The Bank of England has identified the housing market as a “blinking warning light” on the economy’s dashboard following the introduction of the Help to Buy scheme last year
  • In June it introduced limits on high loan-to-income home loans to prevent borrowers over-extending themselves, while tighter mortgage lending criteria are slowing runaway prices.
  • The Bank’s latest credit conditions survey found a “significant” fall in the availability of home loans in the past three months after eight successive quarters of expansion.
  • The IMF also warned that more measures such as tax incentives and freeing up land were necessary to improve the rate of housebuilding and keep a lid on runaway house prices.
  • “Supply-side measures are crucial to safeguard housing affordability and mitigate financial stability risks,” it added.
  • Household debt levels remain high at 140% of GDP and, if the Bank’s limits on the lending market fail to gain traction, it may be forced to raise interest rates instead
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    This article from the London Evening Standard details how the IMF have warned the UK government over remaining household debt and the dangers it poses to the economy. The IMF have also called for 'supply side measures... to safeguard housing affordability' - a growing problem in both London and the UK as a whole.
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