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Haydn W

Ukraine Uncertainty Depressing Growth and Investment | The Moscow Times - 5 views

  • As world leaders increase or trash their political clout depending on their audience and the statements they make about the situation in the Ukraine, some analysts were revising Russian GDP growth estimates to as low as 1.1 percent for the year.
  • Wednesday was a calmer day on the stock markets, following a dip of 10.8 percent Monday morning that vaporized near $60 billion of valuation from Russian companies.
  • Although Russia has seen some short-term budget benefits from ruble devaluation and increasing oil prices, the current impasse is not helping to fight stagnation or attract investment.
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  • The ruble strengthened slightly to 36 against the dollar and 49.4 against the euro Wednesday evening. This was well above the lows reached on Monday
  • Tightening fiscal policy was topped by possibly impending U.S. sanctions, including economic ones, followed by President Vladimir Putin's claims that Russia may use force in Ukraine if necessary.
  • The heap of these latest events has caused some analysts to revise their overall economy forecasts.
  • PSB Research said Wednesday it would decrease its initially modest GDP growth estimates for the year from the range of 1.5 to 1.8 percent to 1.1 to 1.3 percent.
  • Political standoff will also further stimulate the outflow of capital, Fedotkova said, as investors are reluctant to channel their money into the country that may be possibly involved in any kind of military activity
  • As for businesses, a recent survey done by the Gaidar Institute suggests that more than a third of CEOs and owners of private companies would consider investing in production this year if the price for equipment went down and if the macroeconomic outlook were more certain, Vedomosti reported Monday. At the same time macroeconomic uncertainty was a headache for only 10 percent of surveyed state-controlled companies. No margin of error was given for the survey.
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    This article explains how the recent stand-off crisis in Ukraine is having a negative effect on the Russian economy, with the Rouble taking a further fall and GDP growth estimates being revised downwards. Predictably sanctions imposed by the west on Russia in response to the occupation of Crimea, an autonomous region of Ukraine populated largely by ethnic Russians, have affected businesses in Russia. We learn from the article that some $60 billion valuation has been lost by Russian companies in light of the tensions. This article relates to the macroeconomic concept of circular flow being a complex process with international trade and governments being involved majorly in proceedings.
Amanda Anna G

Ukraine, EU to Launch Free Trade Zone if Russia Violates Brussels Agreements | Politics... - 1 views

  • KIEV, October 14 (RIA Novosti) - Kiev and Brussels will launch a free trade zone if Russia violates the Brussels agreements on implementation of the Ukraine–European Union Association Agreement, the acting Ukrainian economic development and trade minister said Tuesday.
  • Earlier, the Russian side also said it would have to introduce measures to protect its market should Kiev or Brussels begin openly or secretly implementing the economic part of the Association Agreement, thus breaking the agreements reached in Brussels mid-September.
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    This article is about free trade, as Kiev and Brussels will launch a free trade zone, only if Russia violated the Brussels agreements on implementation of the Ukraine- European Union Association Agreement. 
Haydn W

Falling oil prices offer the west a great chance to refashion itself. Let's seize it | ... - 1 views

  • Falling oil prices offer the west a great chance to refashion itself. Let’s seize it
  • For the past 18 months, the world’s biggest oil producer has been the US.
  • One first good result of this oil price shift, however, was witnessed at Opec’s meeting in Vienna last week. The once feared cartel of oil-exporting countries, with Saudi Arabia at its core, a cartel that at one time commanded more than half of global production, is now a shadow of its former self.
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  • the US will maintain this new standing for the foreseeable future, according to official projections.
  • It should be no surprise, then, that in the past rising oil prices were associated with recessions and falling oil prices with booms. If the oil price carries on falling back towards $50 a barrel, and if history is any guide, the western economy should respond – to the good.
  • But although particular companies may lose out, the first-round effect of this fall should provide good news. High oil prices depress economic activity. They suck money from consumer spending and redirect it to oil-exporting countries, which typically hoard it in elephantine foreign exchange reserves or unspent  bank deposits. It is a tax by the few on the many.
  • With the US needing to buy less oil on international markets and China’s growth sinking to its lowest mark for 40 years, there is now, amazingly, the prospect of an oil glut. The oil price instantly nosedived to its lowest level for four years, around $70 a barrel – down more than a third in three months.
  • Suddenly, the balance of economic advantage with Russia, no less dependent on oil and gas exports, will flip. Russia’s 2014 budget was based on an oil price of $100 a barrel. At $70 a barrel, the economy will contract by at least 3% in 2015, the country will run a balance of payments deficit and the government’s finances will spin out of control.
  • The chances of Russia sustaining a surrogate war in Ukraine have suddenly been reduced. All good news.
  • But western governments cannot hope that economic benefits will arrive automatically. These are new times.
  • Uncertainty and fear abound. Interest rates in Britain alone have been pegged at 0.5% for more than five years. But still business is reluctant to invest, not knowing what technologies to back or not knowing how much demand there will be for new products and services. We live in an era of stagnation, “secular stagnation”
  • So falling oil prices offer the world economy a great opportunity. But if it is not leapt upon purposefully by aggressively expansionary economic policy, secular stagnation might worsen.
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    The recent fall in oil prices, largely due to America's newfound dominance in the market, will cause Russia to experience a balance of payments deficit, according to this article from the Guardian. This is based on Russia's overestimate of the forecast for the global oil price and can be said to be an example of how global prices often influence balance of payments for countries, especially when it concerns national resources.
Pip Dop

News.Az - Programs for import substitution in Russia to be ready by April - deputy PM - 0 views

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    This article is very interesting with regards to one of this week's topics: import substitution. The concept of import substitution is often applied to LEDC's, reducing their dependancy on foreign imports and improving domestic output. However, this article is about Russia, who is adopting import substitution in response to deteriorating political relations with other nations. The Ministry of Industry and Trade wishes to minimise dependancy on imports from abroad, conjointly limiting the manipulating power of foreign nations.
Hyobin Lim

Russia's Currency Is Plummeting and Putin's Billionaires Are Cannibalizing Each Other - 2 views

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    The article concerns over the depreciation of the Ruble over the recent months that have passed. It was predicted that the Ruble would reach approximately 32.86 Rubles to the US dollar. However last month (November 1st to be exact), the Ruble reached a staggering 43 rubles to one US dollar. Being a 30 percent increase before the predicted depreciation. It has depreciated so suddenly and so quickly that the value is being measured, monitored, and shown by the minute rather than the day. Thus creating panic.
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    Despite the Russian Central Bank's spending of $40 billion over the last two months, the ruble has been significantly dropping for weeks. The price of 1 USD was 32.86 rubles in January, but is now 43 rubles, a drop of over 30%. Food prices in Russia have sky rocketed, dairy and meat costing over 10% more.
Sholpan Marabayeva

UPDATE 3-Russian central bank prepares strategy for sharp oil price drop - 1 views

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    This is an article on how Russia's central bank will address the sharp oil price drop. This article relates to what we are doing because it talks about the strategy of the Russian central bank. the central bank is a key tool for the monetary policy, which we are covering right now. Also this article briefly mentioned balance of payments, and the negative consequences of the bank failing to address this issue. It was a very interesting read.
Amanda Anna G

MyRecordJournal.com | Meriden, CT | Moscow-led trade bloc begins in troubled times - 0 views

  • Moscow-led trade bloc begins in troubled times
  • MOSCOW — The Eurasian Economic Union, a trade bloc of former Soviet states, expanded to four nations Friday when Armenia formally joined, a day after the union between Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan began. The Russian-dominated bloc has been politically controversial and its early days are being overshadowed by the sharp deterioration of Russia’s economy in recent months.
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    This article is about the Russian-dominating bloc, and how it affects trade and economies. 
Daniel Soto Aggard

Nizhny Novgorod region targets import substitution - 0 views

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    Nizhny Novgorod Governor Valery Shantsev took part in a business meeting devoted to prospects and opportunities of import substitution in the region. This is crucial in Russia's current situation thus substituting imports is a must. Short article, yet precise and interesting
Sungmin Lee

China to again levy coal import tariffs after nearly a decade - 1 views

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    Australia, Russia exports seen hit; Indonesia to be exempt * China thermal coal futures, China shares of top coal firms rise (Adds analyst's comments, coal futures and coal firms' shares) By Fayen Wong SHANGHAI, Oct 9 (Reuters) - China, the world's top coal importer, will levy import tariffs on the commodity after nearly a decade, in its latest bid to prop up ailing domestic miners who have been buffeted by rising costs and tumbling prices. China will levy import tariffs between 3-6 percent.
Mariam P

Russians boost foreign-currency deposits in October -central bank data - 6 views

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    Russians had 3.856 trillion roubles' ($82.27 billion) worth of foreign-currency deposits as of Nov. 1, compared to 3.421 trillion roubles on Oct. 1, an increase of more than 12 percent. Their rouble deposits fell by 0.3 percent to 13.829 trillion roubles over the same period, according to the central bank.
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    The article presents an insight on what seems to be the most significant economic effect of the sanctions the EU has imposed on it in response to their invasion of the Ukraine.
Clemence Lafeuille

UK industry export orders hit euro headwinds - 3 views

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    This article talks about the loss of faith there is in the Euro currently because of the conflict with Ukraine and Russia, and how that negatively impacts the UK because its main export zone is Europe. Also, it mentions that the pound is strong when maybe it would be better if the pound was weak, so that refers back to our debate of "Is it better to have a strong or weak currency?"
Yassine G

TASS: Sports - Post-Soviet trade bloc members may be exempt from Russia's bill on legio... - 0 views

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    This article relates trade blocs to athletics. 
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