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Haydn W

NBRD: Belarus pursues balanced exchange rate policy | Economy | Headlines - 1 views

  • MINSK, 14 November (BelTA) - Belarus pursues a balanced exchange rate policy and has been reducing the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble gradually
  • Deputy Chairman of the Board of the Belarus National Bank Sergei Kalechits said at the Belarus-UK investment forum in London on 14 November
  • "We pursue quite a balanced exchange rate policy which is aimed at gradual reduction of the exchange rate. On the one hand, this is a reaction to the devaluation of the currencies of Belarus' major trading partners, which allows us to maintain the competitiveness of domestic exports,"
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  • Sergei Kalechits also noted the National Bank pays great attention to the efficiency of credit resources. "This, too, is a key to the monetary stability," he said.
  • In general, an important element in raising foreign investment and improving the investment climate is the macroeconomic and monetary stability, primarily due to the lower inflation. "This is what our monetary policy is aimed at. Due to objective reasons, this rate is still fairly high,” he said.
  • The second goal that our monetary policy is aimed at maintaining the country's international reserves,” Sergei Kalechits noted.
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    This article from Belarusian news agency BeITA explains the exchange rate policy of the Belarusian National Bank, as described by Deputy Chairman Sergei Kalechits. It explains policy regarding the managed float status of the Belarusian Ruble and how the government pursues a balanced policy surrounding the currency, aiming to reduce the interest rate whilst maintaining competitive advantage with domestic exports.
Amanda Anna G

GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD Exchange Rates All Weaker on House Price Falls - Exc... - 1 views

  • The Pound (GBP) exchange rate remained weaker against the majority of its most traded peers on Thursday as house price data added to concerns that the UK economy is slowing down and reduced pressure on the Bank of England (BoE) to raise interest rates.
  • Against the US Dollar, the Pound weakened to a fresh 14-month low and against the Euro, it declined to its weakest level in three weeks. Against the Australian and New Zealand Dollars, the Pound fell to its lowest level in 2-weeks.
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    This article is about the exchange rate in the UK for the Pund (GBP), which has become weaker during the past weeks. This implies that the UK economy is slowing down. 
Haydn W

Mexican Central Bank Head Warns of Spillover Effects of Dramatic Monetary Policies - WS... - 0 views

  • SINTRA, Portugal—The head of Mexico's central bank said Tuesday that he supports the dramatic measures that central bankers in advanced economies have taken to stabilize their economies, but emerging markets must be mindful of the spillover effects these policies may have.
  • "The unconventional monetary policies have…established the ground for a recovery in economic activity," said Agustin Carstens, governor of Mexico's central bank
  • The inflows have led to higher exchange rates in emerging markets, Mr. Carstens said, weakening exports, as well as a compression of interest rates, leading to bubbles in some real-estate markets.
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  • One byproduct of these policies has been to pump new money into financial markets. Some of that money has found its way to emerging markets as investors sought higher-yielding assets.
  • "Authorities need to think about how they can spread, through time, the adjustment process,"
  • More broadly, emerging economies "shouldn't depend on advanced economies to generate growth," Mr. Carstens said.
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    Agustin Carstens, governor of the Central Bank of Mexico warns about the spillover affects into the developing world from advanced economies' banks' monetary policies. Money has found its way into emerging markets leading to higher exchange rates and weakening exports according to Carstens. This is a dangerous bubble that could be liable to burst should growth pick up soon. Overall this article provides an interesting insight into how one countries policy choices can have global consequences and how international economics really is.
Haydn W

Japan's consumer inflation set to reach five-year high | World news | The Guardian - 0 views

  • Country sees core consumer prices soar as sales tax hike forms part of PM Shinzo Abe's plan for reviving moribund economy
  • Core consumer prices in Tokyo, a leading indicator of nationwide inflation, appear to have risen by the largest amount for 22 years in April after an increase in Japan's sales tax drove up prices
  • The poll also suggested the headline figure for Japan's nationwide consumer inflation may have reached a five-year high in March
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  • Higher inflation is a key aim of the economic policies of the country's prime minister, Shinzo Abe, who was elected in 2012
  • Japanese consumer prices are expected to keep showing steady headway towards the Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target. But the erosion of consumer spending power due to the sales tax increase – to 8% from 5% – underlines the need for long-stagnant wages to catch up with inflation to underpin consumption and help economic recovery.
  • The core consumer price index for Tokyo, available a month before the nationwide data, is likely to have increased 2.8% in April from a year earlier
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    Japan's inflation rate continues to rise according to this article from the Guardian. Prime minister Shinzo Abe aims to boost the inflation rate in the country to an approximate 2% level but, as typical with many countries, wages have not caught up with these levels and thus consumer spending power has been reduced drastically. Other interesting things to note are the rise in electricity and gas prices contributing to the increased CPI data.
Clemence Lafeuille

Pound falls on Bank meeting minutes - 2 views

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    This article presents how a report done by the Monetary Policy Committee of the UK has lead to the value of the pound falling slightly against the dollar. This shows how the direct action of a central bank (here refusing to increase the interest rate) can impact the exchange rate.
Hardy Hewson

Exclusive: China ready to cut rates again on fears of deflation - sources - 6 views

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    Credit: Reuters This article concerns the apparent policy decision facing China as to whether it should cut interest rates and loosen lending so as to decrease the deflation in Chinese growth. Historically China has artificially manufactured low exchange rates so as to benefit their exports to other countries. This new policy therefore represents a step away from this traditional approach.
Haydn W

South Africa at 20: Storms behind the rainbow - Opinion - Al Jazeera English - 1 views

  • April 27 marks the 20th anniversary of South Africa's first democratic elections.
  • Many things have improved in South Africa since 1994, to be sure. State racism has ended, and the country now boasts what some have described as the most progressive constitution in the world. People have rights, and they know that there are institutions designed to protect and uphold those rights. Still, everyday life for most South Africans remains a struggle - a struggle that is infinitely compounded by the sense of disappointment that accompanies it, given the gap between the expectations of liberation and the state of abjection that the majority continues to inhabit.
  • South Africa's unemployment rate in 1994 was 13 percent - so bad that most were convinced it could only get better. Yet today it is double that, at about 25 percent.
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  • And that's according to official statistics; a more reasonable figure, according to most analysts, is probably closer to 37 percent. The situation is particularly bad for young people. The Economist recently reported that "half of South Africans under 24 looking for work have none. Of those who have jobs, a third earn less than $2 a day."
  • South Africa also boasts a reputation for being one of the most unequal countries in the world. Not only has aggregate income inequality worsened since the end of apartheid, income inequality between racial groups has worsened as well.
  • According to the 2011 census, black households earn only 16 percent of that which white households earn. About 62 percent of all black people live below the poverty line, while in the rural areas of the former homelands this figure rises to a shocking 79 percent.
  • The ANC's Black Economic Empowerment programme has succeeded in minting new black millionaires (South Africa has 7,800 of them now), but can't seem to manage the much more basic goal of eliminating poverty.
  • during the negotiated transition of the 1980s and early 1990s. The apartheid National Party was determined that the transition would not undermine key corporate interests in South Africa, specifically finance and mining. They were willing to bargain away political power so long as they could retain control over the economy. And so they did.
  • The ANC was forced to retreat from its position on nationalisation and an IMF deal signed just before the transition deregulated the financial sector and clamped down on wage increases.
  • Still, when the ANC assumed power in 1994 it implemented a progressive policy initiative known as the Reconstruction and Development Programme (RDP). The RDP was designed to promote equitable development and poverty reduction
  • Despite its successes, this policy framework was abandoned a mere two years later. Mbeki and then Finance Minister Trevor Manuel held clandestine discussions with World Bank advisors toward drafting a new economic policy known as GEAR (Growth, Employment, and Redistribution, even though it accomplished precious little of the latter).
  • Given these contradictions, it's no wonder that South Africa is ablaze with discontent, earning it the title of "protest capital of the world".
  • Early this year some 3,000 protests occurred over a 90-day period, involving more than a million people. South Africans are taking to the streets, as they give up on electoral politics. This is particularly true for the young: Nearly 75 percent of voters aged 20-29 did not participate in the 2011 local elections.
  • The government's response has been a mix of police repression - including the recent massacre of 44 striking miners at Marikana - and the continued rollout of welfare grants, which now provide a vital lifeline to some 15 million people.
  • So far the protests have been focused on issues like access to housing, water, electricity, and other basic services, but it won't be long before they coalesce into something much more powerful
  • as they did during the last decade of apartheid. There are already signs that this is beginning to happen. The Economic Freedom Fighters, recently founded by Julius Malema, the unsavory former leader of the ANC Youth League, is successfully mobilising discontented youth and making a strong push to nationalise the mines and the banks.
  • It seems that the ANC's legitimacy is beginning to unravel and consent among the governed has begun to thin. It is still too early to tell, but the death of Mandela may further widen this crack in the edifice of the ruling regime, as the ANC scrambles to shore up its symbolic connection to the liberation struggle.
  • In short, the situation in South Africa over the past 20 years opens up interesting questions about the meaning of democracy. What is democracy if it doesn't allow people to determine their own economic destiny or benefit from the vast wealth of the commons? What is freedom if it serves only the capital interests of the country's elite? The revolution that brought us the end of apartheid has accomplished a great deal, to be sure, but it has not yet reached its goal. Liberation is not yet at hand.
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    From Al Jazeera I chose this article about the poor state of the economy in South Africa, 20 years after Nelson Mandela and the ANC came to power, ending the system of political, social and economic segregation, Apartheid. Despite reforms in the 90's the majority of wealth and power is still held by rich whites. With around 30% unemployment rate and young people struggling to find work many feel only anger and resentment to the current ANC government led by Jacob Zuma. Economically speaking South Africa's imports are up and exports down, reducing GDP as AS is shifted left. This is especially evident in industries like mining and banking which many are now calling for to be nationalised. 20 years on from Nelson Mandela's historic victory in the 1994 general election, South Africa, despite being free of the shackles of segregation is not in the boom many predict. The ANC must be careful in there actions, should they, following the death of Madiba lose contact with his legacy and what he stood for.
Amanda Anna G

U.S. be warned: Default would cause global crisis - CNN.com - 0 views

  • The impact of default could be catastrophic, and not just economically. As Secretary of State John Kerry asserts, this would send a message "of political silliness" that we "can't get our own act together" so we need to "get back on a track the world will respect."
  • As the U.S. partial government shutdown continues into almost a third week, the stakes are growing
  • This builds on earlier studies by the organization, including in 2011-12 which highlighted "intensified speculation about America's long-term stability," partly as a result of the downgrade by Standard & Poor's of the country's credit rating. This was prompted by the last near debt default of Washington in 2011.
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  • Then, as now, however, the country retains attractive qualities for many foreigners, including its popular culture and economic innovation.
  • And the fact remains that, in times of major urgency, Washington can transcend partisan divisions and work in the national interest.
  • This was demonstrated, for instance, during the 2008-9 financial crisis when Congress and the administration acted more swiftly and comprehensively than many other countries to counteract the worst economic turmoil since at least the 1930s. This has been key in enabling the country to recover more quickly from recession than some other areas of the world. While current problems should therefore be put into context, the situation is nonetheless troubling. And this is not the first time this year that a Washington political impasse has threatened negative economic repercussions
  • Only at the 11th hour did Congress in January agree a deal to prevent the U.S. falling off the "fiscal cliff." It is estimated that the automatic tax increases and spending cuts might well have taken the U.S. economy back into recession.
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    This article relates to equilibrium and price mechanism because it describes changes in impacts of the market. Stakes are growing, there are "intensified speculation about America's long-term stability" due to a downgrade in the country's credit rating, and an unstable state at the "fiscal cliff". These worries and a political impasse in Washington are some impacts that has threatened negative economic repercussions in the US, moving the market equilibrium. In response to changes in price, resources are allocated and re-allocated. However, profits are still able to be made making the equilibrium more stable without excess demand and supply, due to that the US has its popular culture and economic innovation, helping the country to retain attractive qualities for many foreigners.
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    I think this is a very serious matter, that could affect the world's over all economy if it goes on for a while. We can see that obviously a majority of the world's largest companies are american and based in america. If this effects any of those companies, the market they operate at will see a big change, both in the good way and the bad one.
Marenne M

Nigeria devalues currency as oil prices drop - FT.com - 5 views

  • Nigeria has devalued its currency by nearly 10 per cent and raised interest rates to record levels, in one of the clearest signs yet of how oil producing nations are struggling as energy prices drop sharply.
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    This article describes the devaluation of the fixed currency rate of Nigeria as a result of the decreased energy prices. Nigeria is an oil producing country and therefore earns a lot of its income through oil exports. Now that the prices of other energy has dropped, there is a lower demand for the Nigerian oil, leading to fewer exports. The Nigerian central bank has now devaluated its currency by 8.4 percent in the hope that the lower prices will encourage a greater demand for their oil exports.
Haydn W

IMF warns UK of lingering housing and mortgage market risks - Business News - Business ... - 3 views

  • IMF warns UK of lingering housing and mortgage market risks
  • The UK faces lingering risks from housing and mortgage markets despite remaining on track for the fastest growth among the world’s leading economies this year, the International Monetary Fund said today.
  • has pencilled in growth of 3.2% this year — unchanged from its last July update despite a slew of downgrades for several members of the stagnating eurozone.
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  • This is the highest rate forecast among advanced economies, although the IMF has trimmed global forecasts amid fears over a “weak and uneven” recovery in Europe and parts of Asia.
  • The body, led by Christine Lagarde, said the “US and the UK in particular are leaving the financial crisis behind”
  • The Bank of England has identified the housing market as a “blinking warning light” on the economy’s dashboard following the introduction of the Help to Buy scheme last year
  • In June it introduced limits on high loan-to-income home loans to prevent borrowers over-extending themselves, while tighter mortgage lending criteria are slowing runaway prices.
  • The Bank’s latest credit conditions survey found a “significant” fall in the availability of home loans in the past three months after eight successive quarters of expansion.
  • The IMF also warned that more measures such as tax incentives and freeing up land were necessary to improve the rate of housebuilding and keep a lid on runaway house prices.
  • “Supply-side measures are crucial to safeguard housing affordability and mitigate financial stability risks,” it added.
  • Household debt levels remain high at 140% of GDP and, if the Bank’s limits on the lending market fail to gain traction, it may be forced to raise interest rates instead
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    This article from the London Evening Standard details how the IMF have warned the UK government over remaining household debt and the dangers it poses to the economy. The IMF have also called for 'supply side measures... to safeguard housing affordability' - a growing problem in both London and the UK as a whole.
Zube Iheobi

European Central Bank slashes interest rates as eurozone suffers 'lowflation' crisis - ... - 0 views

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    this is relevent to this weeks reading because it amother way of the government making changes, however here its not the government its the central bank. and acts of the central baks are more monetary poilicy as they predominantly affect AD
Daniel B

Closing the gap - 0 views

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    The unemployment rate, though, tells a much cheerier story: it dropped to 6.6% in January from 7% in November. Indeed, it could soon hit the Federal Reserve's 6.5% threshold at which it may consider raising interest rates.
Haydn W

The return of the US dollar | Mohamed El-Erian | Business | theguardian.com - 4 views

  • The return of the US dollar The resurgence of the US currency could be the first promising step in steering the world economy away from crisis
  • The US dollar is on the move. In the last four months alone, it has soared by more than 7% compared with a basket of more than a dozen global currencies, and by even more against the euro and the Japanese yen.
  • Two major factors are currently working in the dollar’s favour
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  • Second, after a period of alignment, the monetary policies of these three large and systemically important economies are diverging, taking the world economy from a multi-speed trajectory to a multi-track one.
  • First, the United States is consistently outperforming Europe and Japan in terms of economic growth and dynamism – and will likely continue to do so – owing not only to its economic flexibility and entrepreneurial energy, but also to its more decisive policy action since the start of the global financial crisis.
  • With higher US market interest rates attracting additional capital inflows and pushing the dollar even higher, the currency’s revaluation would appear to be just what the doctor ordered when it comes to catalysing a long-awaited global rebalancing – one that promotes stronger growth and mitigates deflation risk in Europe and Japan.
  • ECB President Mario Draghi signalled a willingness to expand his institution’s balance sheet by a massive €1 trillion ($1.25 trillion).
  • Furthermore, sudden large currency moves tend to translate into financial-market instability.
  • There is also the risk that, given the role of the ECB and the Bank of Japan in shaping their currencies’ performance, such a shift could be characterized as a “currency war” in the US Congress, prompting a retaliatory policy response.
  • Today, many of these countries have adopted more flexible exchange-rate regimes, and quite a few retain adequate reserve holdings.
  • an appreciating dollar improves the price competitiveness of European and Japanese companies in the US and other markets
  • But a new issue risks bringing about a similarly problematic outcome: By repeatedly repressing financial-market volatility over the last few years, central-bank policies have inadvertently encouraged excessive risk-taking, which has pushed many financial-asset prices higher than economic fundamentals warrant.
  • This is not to say that the currency re-alignment that is currently underway is necessarily a problematic development; on the contrary, it has the potential to boost the global economy by supporting the recovery of some of its most challenged components. But the only way to take advantage of the re-alignment’s benefits, without experiencing serious economic disruptions and financial-market volatility, is to introduce complementary growth-enhancing policy adjustments, such as accelerating structural reforms, balancing aggregate demand, and reducing or eliminating debt overhangs.
  • The US dollar’s resurgence, while promising, is only a first step. It is up to governments to ensure that the ongoing currency re-alignment supports a balanced, stable, and sustainable economic recovery. Otherwise, they may find themselves again in the unpleasant business of mitigating financial instability.
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    This article details the so called resurgence of the US dollar, in terms of currency value. The currency itself has risen by around 7% against other currencies but Guardian economist Mohamed El-Erian warns that without the appropriate accompanying central bank policies, the rise of the dollar could cause further market volatility and at worst a new crash. El-Erian calls for governments to enact policy to support balance the current currency realignment. 
Clemente F

What happens when easy money ends? - 0 views

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    The article talks aboutthe quantative easing the FED gave and how it may affect the markets. "As interest rates rise, so does the expected return. This, in turn, pushes down the price that investors are willing to pay for a dollar in earnings" this is the concept of equilibrium in a more financial point of view. It says that the steeper the field curve is the higher the interests will be and therefore the equilibrium rises.
Haydn W

Inflation Forecast 2014-2014: Continued Mild Price Increases - 1 views

  • Inflation is likely to remain mild in the next two years, but first a caution: none of the inflation forecasting models is doing a good job these days.
  • the Phillips Curve was our primary way of looking at inflation. William Phillips found an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment over the period 1861-1957. This simple approach was used here in the United States in the 1960s and 70s.
  • With lower unemployment you would expect greater inflation. However, the Phillips Curve does not explain why inflation didn’t go down much when our unemployment rate was high a few years ago.
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  • Milton Friedman said “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon . . . .” The relationship was solid for a long time, though financial changes in the 1990s made the theory harder to apply.
  • Unfortunately, the expectations-augmented Phillips Curve has not worked well in recent years. One study found that the predicted inflation for 2010 was negative 4.3 percent, while actual inflation was still positive.
  • Different theories tell us that the actual dynamics by which inflation changes are influenced not only by unemployment but also by inflation expectations.
  • Two different money concepts have been used, the money supply (such as the M2 definition) and the monetary base Recent data for both concepts indicate that inflation should have been much higher in recent years. The fact that inflation has accelerated very little suggests that in the current environment, the money-inflation connection is not very tight.
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    This article from Forbes is primarily titled to be a forecast about inflation in the coming fiscal year but it also interestingly (and relevant to our studies) discusses the different arguments and criticism surrounding the modelled Phillips Curve. The article also contains an interesting graph that is based on recorded statistics about inflation and unemployment which helps to demonstrate the problems with the Phillips Curve model. 
Fiete M

Rajan Needs Help From Delhi in Inflation Fight - 0 views

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    This article shows how elastic Indias currency the Rupie is, and how a small increase in interest rate can cause a huge increase in inflation
Daniel B

Euro-zone lowflation - 0 views

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    This article shows how important it is to sustain proper inflation. It should be not too high as well as not too low. Central Bank is able to control it with the interest rate.
Samuel Choi

The Return of the Supply Side - 5 views

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    This is a very interesting article because it presents a well-known health care reform in the context of a supply-side policy. The article is about how Republicans have been blaming Obamacare for having negative supply-side effects on the economy and the labour force by reserving budgets for subsidising the system.
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    This article discusses the return of the supply side policies..
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    Republicans believed that supply rather than demand was to be blamed for the economy's state. However, there has been clear evidence that the job market was held back due to low demand. The article then starts to delve int Obamacare and how it had negative supply-side effects on the economy.
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    Obamacare is nothing new - it has been debated about for months, if not years, in one shape or form. This problem with Obamacare is that it has negative supply-side effects. These effects were offset by a half, with the presence of Medicaid, but now that the subsidies for health care have shrunken, the marginal tax rate would rise, thus discouraging people to find work and keep working. Politicians are pushing for supply-side reforms, but the Congress isn't budging due to the possibility that Obamacare, an expensive and time-consuming venture, might be scrapped.
Amanda Anna G

US Fed debates plans to exit easy monetary policy - FT.com - 0 views

  • The US Federal Reserve is debating yet another addition to its forward guidance as the central bank starts to plan an exit from easy monetary policy.
  • ccording to the minutes of April’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, “a number” of officials wanted to give more information about how long the Fed will wait before it starts to reduce the size of its balance sheet.
  • The minutes show how the Fed is starting to wrestle with the complexity of raising interest rates with a balance sheet bloated to more than $4tn by repeated rounds of asset purchases over the past five years.
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    As a number of officials wanted to give more information about how long the US Federal Reserve will wait before it starts to reduce the size of its balance sheet, the central bank starts to plan an exit from easy monetary policy. 
Haydn W

Falling oil prices offer the west a great chance to refashion itself. Let's seize it | ... - 1 views

  • Falling oil prices offer the west a great chance to refashion itself. Let’s seize it
  • For the past 18 months, the world’s biggest oil producer has been the US.
  • One first good result of this oil price shift, however, was witnessed at Opec’s meeting in Vienna last week. The once feared cartel of oil-exporting countries, with Saudi Arabia at its core, a cartel that at one time commanded more than half of global production, is now a shadow of its former self.
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  • the US will maintain this new standing for the foreseeable future, according to official projections.
  • It should be no surprise, then, that in the past rising oil prices were associated with recessions and falling oil prices with booms. If the oil price carries on falling back towards $50 a barrel, and if history is any guide, the western economy should respond – to the good.
  • But although particular companies may lose out, the first-round effect of this fall should provide good news. High oil prices depress economic activity. They suck money from consumer spending and redirect it to oil-exporting countries, which typically hoard it in elephantine foreign exchange reserves or unspent  bank deposits. It is a tax by the few on the many.
  • With the US needing to buy less oil on international markets and China’s growth sinking to its lowest mark for 40 years, there is now, amazingly, the prospect of an oil glut. The oil price instantly nosedived to its lowest level for four years, around $70 a barrel – down more than a third in three months.
  • Suddenly, the balance of economic advantage with Russia, no less dependent on oil and gas exports, will flip. Russia’s 2014 budget was based on an oil price of $100 a barrel. At $70 a barrel, the economy will contract by at least 3% in 2015, the country will run a balance of payments deficit and the government’s finances will spin out of control.
  • The chances of Russia sustaining a surrogate war in Ukraine have suddenly been reduced. All good news.
  • But western governments cannot hope that economic benefits will arrive automatically. These are new times.
  • Uncertainty and fear abound. Interest rates in Britain alone have been pegged at 0.5% for more than five years. But still business is reluctant to invest, not knowing what technologies to back or not knowing how much demand there will be for new products and services. We live in an era of stagnation, “secular stagnation”
  • So falling oil prices offer the world economy a great opportunity. But if it is not leapt upon purposefully by aggressively expansionary economic policy, secular stagnation might worsen.
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    The recent fall in oil prices, largely due to America's newfound dominance in the market, will cause Russia to experience a balance of payments deficit, according to this article from the Guardian. This is based on Russia's overestimate of the forecast for the global oil price and can be said to be an example of how global prices often influence balance of payments for countries, especially when it concerns national resources.
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