eLearn: Feature Article - 0 views
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Every year at this time we turn to the experts in our field to share their predictions on what lies ahead for the e-learning community. While our colleagues here unanimously agree the global economic downturn is the overwhelming factor coloring their forecasts, they do see a great array of opportunities and challenges in the coming 12 months. Their insights never fail to inspire further discussion and hope. Here's what our experts have to say this year:
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2009 is the year when the cellphone—not the laptop—will emerge as the learning infrastructure for the developing world. Initially, those educational applications linked most closely to local economic development will predominate. Also parents will have high interest in ways these devices can foster their children's literacy. Countries will begin to see the value of subsidizing this type of e-learning, as opposed to more traditional schooling. The initial business strategy will be a disruptive technology competing with non-consumption, in keeping with Christensen's models. —Chris Dede, Harvard University, USA
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During the coming slump the risk of relying on free tools and services in learning will become apparent as small start-ups offering such services fail, and as big suppliers switch off loss-making services or start charging for them. The Open Educational Resources (OER) movement will strengthen, and will face up to the "cultural" challenges of winning learning providers and teachers to use OER. Large learning providers and companies that host VLEs will make increasing and better use of the data they have about learner behavior, for example, which books they borrow, which online resources they access, how long they spend doing what. —Seb Schmoller, Chief Executive of the UK's Association for Learning Technology (ALT), UK
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Online learning tools and technologies are becoming less frustrating (for authoring, teaching, and learning) and more powerful. Instructional content development can increasingly be done by content experts, faculty, instructional designers, and trainers. As a result, online content is becoming easier to maintain. Social interaction and social presence tools such as discussion forums, social networking and resource sharing, IM, and Twitter are increasingly being used to provide formal and informal support that has been missing too long from self-paced instruction. I am extremely optimistic about the convergence of "traditional" instruction and support with technology-based instruction and support. —Patti Shank, Learning Peaks, USA
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In 2009 learning professionals will start to move beyond using Web 2.0 only for "rogue," informal learning projects and start making proactive plans for how to apply emerging technologies as part of organization-wide learning strategy. In a recent Chapman Alliance survey, 39 percent of learning professionals say they don't use Web 2.0 tools at all; 41 percent say they use them for "rogue" projects (under the radar screen); and only 20 percent indicate they have a plan for using them on a regular basis for learning. Early adopters such as Sun Microsystems and the Peace Corp have made changes that move Web 2.0 tools to the front-end of the learning path, while still using structured learning (LMS and courseware) as critical components of their learning platforms. —Bryan Chapman, Chief Learning Strategist and Industry Analyst, Chapman Alliance, USA
