Group items tagged

This article discusses the severe rising level of unemployment in Greece. Unemployment rates rose to approximately 24.4% this summer and 55% of young people aged 14 to 24 are unemployed. The reasons behind this high unemployment are that a high percentage of the Greek workforce is employed by the government (about 25%) and these employees receive large unreported subsidies and bonuses. Also, Greece suffers from a large amount of tax evasion, causing it to struggle to pay the high number of government workers. Consequently, Greece had to cut 100,000 government jobs, causing unemployment to rise. Unemployment was high in the first place because of the deep recession which started in 2007. The high unemployment in Greece has further knock on effects on its economy, particularly if the majority of those unemployed are of the younger generation. A young workforce with no jobs means that once the older generation retires, the younger generation will want to take over their jobs but they will not have the experience to do so. Also, they will lose incentive to work hard as they are used to not having jobs. 

1/4th of the labor force in Greece was being employed by the Greek government. However the government borrowed a lot of money and that means that the government workforce will end up decreasing dramatically sooner or later, and that happened.  Their economy has shrunk around 20% since 2008. The article also told us that 'Moody's Analytics predicts that the Greek economy won't start growin gagain until 2015, at the earliest". That is bad for Greece because it will take very long and be very hard for it to become a stable and strong economy again. 

The article discusses that the US may face a fiscal cliff in order to reduce the large deficit that has accumulated in the past. A fiscal policy stands for a series of major tax increases and government spending cuts if Congress does not act. The article discusses that through lower government spending and higher taxes it is expected that $600 billion can be extracted from the economy to decrease the debt. However economists think that every dollar of deficit reduction will subtract the same or a greater amount from economic growth. In theoretical terms this would make sense. If government spending decrease this reduces aggregate demand in the economy and by that will cause a decrease in real GDP. Households will cut back on purchases and especially households that are dependent on government support through unemployment benefits will suffer from the policy. Although this will decrease the deficit of the US it may be that it distracts the fragile recovering economy. 

The article explains how the German retail sales decreased by 0.9 percent in July, as a result of the increasing fuel prices.  The inflated prices of fuel have caused the consumption on other goods and services of households in Germany to decrease. Consumption is one of the four factors that affects the aggregate demand or the total demand for final goods and services in an economy at a given time and price level, in an economy. Therefore, if consumption of households decreases the aggregate demand in an economy also decreases. Hence, the aggregate demand in Germany's economy has decreased significantly and therefore their retail sales have also decreased, by 0.9 percent as the article claims. This is because if consumption is lower than the units of output sold are also lower. 

This article discusses the need for the U.K. government to "show some political backbone" by becoming more enterprise friendly in order to stimulate the badly required growth of their economy. U.K. business leaders have become increasingly concerned as the CBI has predicted that the U.K. economy will shrink by 0.3% this year. This fall in GDP is a sign that the country is entering a double-dip recession. The reason behind this is declining exports, the on-going euro crisis, a stagnant economy since the coalition, reduced borrowing on credit cards, an increase in unemployment and a lack of household spending. A reduced borrowing on credit cards and lack of household spending directly affects GDP as GDP can be calculated using the expenditure method, where household consumption is one of the factors taken into consideration. If consumption falls, so does GDP. In order to prevent the GDP from falling further and to promote economic growth, schemes such as tax breaks for small firms taking on extra workers ,schemes that boost the mortgage and household market and schemes that support household expenditure have been implemented. This could lead to a rise in employment as well as expenditures, causing GDP to grow. 

This article talks about how South Korea's inflation is at its lowest in 12 years at 1.2 per cent. This has both positive and negative effects. It is positive because price level is only slightly increasing, which is good for consumers withing South Korea. However it also has many negative effects. Because inflation is so low employment and real GDP will only be slightly increasing, these are elements that are good for the economy when they increase. One of the main reasons why the inflation is so low is because exports, a key section of the country's economy, have decreased. If exports continue to decrease then this could result in a decrease of GDP in the country which is not good for people living in the country and the country's economy. However, the article says that it is unlikely that South Korea will experience deflation and that this is likely the trough for inflation, meaning inflation is due to increase.

Ireland's high current unemployment rate of 14.9 percent is a result from its economic situation : Ireland is in a recession. The article clearly stipulates this, there is a 'recession in the real domestic economy'. The recession arose from the housing bubble : mortgages were cheap, people overborrowed and then the high housing prices fell so that people were less wealthy and no longer able to pay their mortgages. Wealth is a determinant of AD. It is the added value of all assets or stocks. If wealth or perceived wealth increases, then so will a household's consumption of goods, thereby shifting demand, as the household feels 'wealthier' or able to purchase more. The reverse is also the case, when wealth declines, demand declines, such as in Ireland. The Irish were much less willing to consume goods, as they believed they were less wealthy or had less money( which they eventually did , upon having to pay mortgages; debt), and so consumption decreased, which thus shifted aggregate demand into a demand slide recession. This is a situation where prices in a nation inflate and output decreases, due to the lesser demand. If less is being produced, less factors of production are required. Thus labor, a major factor of production is no longer required in the economy, which gives firms the incentive to lay off many of their workers. This is the unemployment Ireland is experiencing. It is interesting that the article also depicts the  'austerity drive'  that the Irish government resulted to in the recession.  As it correctly suggests, this is 'self defeating', as during a demand slide recession the Keynesian policy follows that the government should not save its funding, but rather spend. In a time of recession, the government should spend,  so as to decrease unemployment stimulate the economy. If the government spends, this will have a multiplier effect through the economy, as it provides income to households ( by spending, the government employs labor), where househo

Data shows that contraction in the UK has not dropped by as much as it was expected to, so could this mean that they are reaching a trough and the recession is coming to an end? Inflation is down and unemployment is falling, although the productive capacity of the economy has been affected because of a shift to part-time work. The UK  has had a flat economy over the past two years, so the lower than expected changes in GDP do not change that it is in a recession. 

This article talks about South Korea's exports falling for the six month in a row. Exports in South Korea in August fell by 6.2%. Because of this the AD curve would shift to the left. A fall in exports does not mean there has been a fall in income in South Korea, but rather a fall in the national level of income in other countries, which means people are not importing as much as they previously were. When people have a lower income, or when people perceive the economy to be shrinking, they save more money, which means they are not consuming as much. This fall in consumption has an effect inside the country in the form of consumption, but also outside of the country in the form of a decrease in imports. 

Unemployment is Greece has reached its highest point, 23.1% from only 8% before the economic crisis two years ago. 672,000 out of 800,000 registered unemployed people are not receiving any unemployment benefits and therefore have no income at all. This means there is a huge number of people who are not able purchase goods and services so the overall consumption is decreasing. Unemployment is costing Greece about five billion per year. Minimum wages have also been cut by 23% which are increasing the costs for the government.  This had led to an $81 billion decrease in consumption and the shutting down of thousands of businesses which means the aggregate demand curve has shifted to the left, decreasing consumption in the country. The economy in Greece has shrunk by 7%, meaning it is in recession. 

The article is concerned with the current economic situation in Ireland, namely a recession. This is a period of decline in an economy, where in the business cycle it is known as a 'trough'. This is illustrated well in the article through the decline of demand in the housing market, as a decrease demand is a typical characteristic of a recession. The overall demand or aggregate demand of a country decreases during a recession, as seen in the Irish housing market, as people have lost confidence in the economy, uncertainty has gone up and unemployment has increased. Consequently people save their money as the situation is unstable and they are unsure of their furture imployment and income. Saving is a leakage in the cycle and therefore corresponds to the decrease in aggreagate demand. In the article's context, The Irish are untrusting and therefore unwilling to invest in new housing. This is all a result of bad planning. In the 1990s, Ireland's economy was booming: banks were doing well, the housing market rising significantly and in large demand. Therefore the government decided to build Adamstown. Yet as the housing bubble broke and with it the faith and confidencein the Irish economy, people put their spendings " on hold" as the article illustrates, and areas of modern infra structure such as Adamsville became Ghosttowns.

The global rise in food prices, caused by a drought in the US, has increased Brazil's inflation, along with the government trying to put a stop to the currency gains. Due to bad weather conditions, the tomato industry has been affected, and has lead to an increase in the price of tomatoes. With global prices on the rise, there is less want to import goods, but with inflation in Brazil, high food prices all around is hurting its economy. Currency gains are also having a negative affect which is hurting industrial competitiveness. Consumers are finding it difficult to cope with rising food prices and in the short run will mean that a lot of their earnings are being spent on necessities and not spending on luxuries. Low unemployment is pushing up wages, and with interest rates being cut, people will most likely try and save their money.

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research has advised the UK government to ease its fiscal policy because of the danger of the economy entering another recession. The UK fiscal policy is unintentionally causing deficient demand. Demand was already relatively low as private and public sectors were focusing on paying off their debts. This decline in demand has lead to a decrease in consumption and a fall in GDP. Also, businesses have become reluctant to invest due to the uncertainty about domestic and foreign demand. The UK government has been cautious about easing their fiscal policy because of their desire to achieve their fiscal goals, which they have been relatively successful in reaching so far, as stated by a Treasury spokesman who said: "… the government's commitment to deficit reduction has helped maintain market confidence". A way for the UK to ease their fiscal policy and subsequently increase demand would be to cut taxes, which would allow households to have a higher level of disposable income and firms would be incentivized to invest more because of the rising domestic demand.  

This article explains how the Swiss economy continued to grow despite the predictions that it would shrink or go into a recession. Economists thought this, because the franc became a strong currency, making Switzerland's imports cheaper but making it very expensive for other countries to buy goods from Switzerland, meaning fewer exports for Switzerland. Since we know that GDP can be calculated by adding the incomes produced by C (Consumers) + I (Investments) + G (Government) + X (Exports - Imports), we will see that Switzerland's GDP would decrease because less exports or more exports would make 'X' a negative value lowering the nations GDP. However, Switzerland's GDP went different as expected. Even though exports were now more costly for other countries, Switzerland exports grew by 2.8 % in the last quarter of the year, in precious metals, jewels or arts. Adding on to that, the gross fixed investments also grew by 2.5 % in investments in construction and equipment as the strong currency proved a "safe-haven" for investor. The rise in exports and investments lead to an unexpected and unpredicted expansion of the Swiss economy instead of a recession.

Brazil's President Dilm Rousseff a 66 billion dollar stimulus plan to revive the country road and transport systems in order to bolster the economy. The government predicts a growth of 3% in 2012, down from the 4.5% growth in 2011. In order to maintain the GDP growth at what it was the previous year the government plans to invest 66 billion dollars into the country transport system in order to promote jobs and growth within the country. As this is not a transfer payment (tax revenue redistributed to pensioners, veteran, and the unemployed) the government is contributing to the economies gross domestic product. This stimulus plan would go to wages of the people working on the transport system and the purchase of capital goods necessary to make the improvements. In order to maintain the GDP per capita in Brazil it is necessary for the economy to grow at the same rate as the population.

The Portuguese government has revealed the details of its draft budget for 2013. It is said to be one of the harshest in the country's recent history.  The Portuguese government has spent a significantly greater amount than the total revenue, and is therefore experiencing a budget deficit. Due to this deficit, government is forced to borrow money from the public, thus increasing its budget deficit even further, and ultimately increasing their total national debt.  The government was already granted a 78 billion- euro bailout last year, which has still not accounted for their budget deficit. Therefore, the Portuguese government was forced to make some huge changes in the economy,.  As stated in the article, the government will have to borrow money from the public through average income taxes, which will increase from 9.8% to 13.2%. Furthermore, they will have to cut spending worth up to 2.7 billion euros next year, which includes laying off 2% of the countries 600.000 public sector employees.  Moreover, the Portuguese government has decided to cut their spending by not raising social security contribution next year from 11% to 18%.  According to Vitor Gaspar,finance minister, this budget would allow Portugal to reduce its budget deficit to 4.5% in 2013.  Ultimately hoping to achieve the European Union target of 3% of GDP. 

coming soon. 

Indonesia has been experiencing rapid economic growth which has increased the size of the middle class as well as their disposable incomes. The article describes how an increase in required down-payments on cars and houses may decrease the growth in Indonesia's economy. Last year the automotive finance growth of banks was 55%, the highest in the world. They have noticed that this is an unsustainable rate of growth. Due to these fears the Indonesian central bank has placed new regulations which will make buyers pay higher down-payments when making a purchase on credit. These down-payments have been increased from originally 10-20% to 30% and more. With that households see themselves with less money available for consumption. The new regulations may also result in a dip in property sales as aggregate demand decreases. However on the other side it may also only defer sales, since people will safe longer until they buy property. 

This article mentions exports in correlation to a country's GDP - more specifically, Russia's GDP. As one of the world's largest energy suppliers, a lot of Russia's GDP is made up of the amount of exports of their energy goods. As the article says, when oil prices went down in 2009, Russia's GDP decreased dramatically, by about 8%, and when oil prices increased again it rose by 4.2%. Such a high amount of exports suggest high independance. Russia does not rely on other countries to sustain its energy consumption. Also, Russia makes a lot of money from these exports - all of which are injections into the economy. Russian citizens buy the oil because it will likely be cheaper in Russia, as there is so much of it - and the cost of exporting has not yet been included, either. As well as this, foreigners will buy it because they have little other choice. This gives Russia a lot of market power.