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Jacqueline Nivard

Regional total factor energy efficiency: An empirical analysis of industrial sector in ... - 0 views

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    The rapid growth of the Chinese economy has resulted in great pressure on energy consumption, especially the energy intensive sector - the industrial sector. To achieve sustainable development, China has to consider how to promote energy efficiency to meet the demand of Chinese rapid economic growth, as the energy efficiency of China is relatively low. Meanwhile, the appeal of energy saving and emission reduction has been made by the Chinese central government. Therefore, it is important to evaluate the energy efficiency of industrial sector in China and to assess efficiency development probabilities. The framework of total factor energy efficiency index is adopted to determine the discrepancy of energy efficiency in Chinese industrial sector based on the provincial statistical data of industrial enterprises above designated size in 30 provinces from 2005 to 2009, with gross industrial output as the output value and energy consumption, average remaining balance of capital assets and average amount of working force as the input values. Besides, in considerate of the regional divide of China, namely eastern, central, and western, and economic development differences in each region, energy efficiency of each region is also analysed in this paper. The results show that there is room for China to improve its energy efficiency, especially western provinces which have large amount of energy input excess. Generally speaking, insufficient technological investment and fail of reaching best scale of manufacture are two factors preventing China from energy efficiency promotion. Based on our findings, some policy implications on the improvement of energy efficiency, particularly for economically underdeveloped regions in China, are also discussed.
Monique Abud

Project MUSE - Environmental Issues and Policy Priorities in China: A Content Analysis... - 0 views

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    Abstract Not all environmental issues get the same level of policy attention because of the limited capacity of the political and administrative system [End Page 220] to consider all issues simultaneously. This article explores the priority attached to different environmental issues in China through a content analysis of 1,564 government documents during the 1999 to 2008 period. The analysis focuses on four issues, namely pollution types, high-polluting industrial sectors, environmental policy instruments and the implementation of international environmental treaties. The empirical results provide useful insights into changing policy priorities in the area of environmental protection so as to gain a better understanding of the roles of environmental regulation in China.
Jacqueline Nivard

Virtual Shanghai - 0 views

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    "Live Maps" is the GIS platform where we offer access to georectified maps, but also where we combine various elements of data to produce maps "on the fly". Apart from producing maps based on pre-selected data, "Live Maps" includes other features. The first one is a timeline. Only the items selected for a given period will show on the maps (e.g. "schools" in 1910-1925). Each physical element like buildings, parks, etc. -- whenever this is known -- is determined by a "date of construction" and "date of destruction" (or change of function). The second feature is the link between these physical elements and the photographic database. All such identified elements in the photographic database will appear with all their associated pictures and actual location on any georectified map in Virtual Shanghai.
Monique Abud

Hedonic house prices and spatial quantile regression - 0 views

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    [ScienceDirect, via Biblio-SHS] Auteurs : Wen-Chi Liao, Xizhu Wang Paru dans : Journal of Housing Economics, Volume 21, Issue 1, March 2012, Pages 16-27 Abstract Despite its long history, hedonic pricing for housing valuation remains an active research area, and applications of new estimation methods continually push research frontiers. However, housing studies regarding Chinese cities are limited because of the short history of China's free housing market. Such studies may, nonetheless, provide new insights given the nation's current transitional stage of economic development. Therefore, this research makes use of publicly accessible sources to construct a new micro-dataset for an emerging Chinese city, Changsha, and it incorporates quantile regression with spatial econometric modeling to examine how implicit prices of housing characteristics may vary across the conditional distribution of house prices. Substantial variations are found, and the intuitions and implications are discussed. Additionally, the spatial dependence exhibits a U-shape pattern. The dependence is strong in the upper and lower parts of the response distribution, but it is little in the medium range. Highlights ► We incorporate quantile regression into spatial econometric modeling. ► We collect housing transactions' microdata, which are rare in China. ► Spatial dependence of house prices is U-shaped across the response distribution. ► Housing attributes' implicit prices vary greatly across the response distribution.
Monique Abud

State-led land requisition and transformation of rural villages in transitional China - 0 views

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    [ScienceDirect, via Biblio-SHS] Auteurs : Ying Xu, Bo-sin Tang, Edwin H.W. Chan Paru dans : Habitat International, Volume 35, Issue 1, January 2011, Pages 57-65 Abstract Since the implementation of economic reforms in 1978, Chinese cities have undergone unprecedented urban expansion. The suburban landscape of these cities has changed dramatically - from traditionally agricultural to rapidly urbanizing. This paper sheds light on the urbanization process that rural villages have undergone through state-led land requisition. It identifies two physical manifestations of the Chinese countryside during the urbanization process: semi-urbanized villages and urban resettlement housing districts. Based on a case study of the suburban districts of Shanghai, it argues that these two emerging forms of suburban landscape differ not only in terms of their physical form and land-use structure, but also in many of the social, economic, cultural and organizational characteristics of these ex-rural communities. Through analysis of public data and observation from personal interview, the study concludes that state-led land requisition has been a dominant force in expediting the urbanization of the suburban areas of Chinese cities and that the complex interplay between state and market impetuses has led to the multi-faceted transformation of rural communities and to a complicated countryside profile.
Monique Abud

[Review] Progress in research on Chinese urbanization - 0 views

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    DOI : http://dx.doi.org.gate3.inist.fr/10.1016/j.foar.2012.02.013 [ScienceDirect, via Biblio-SHS] Auteur : GU Chaolin, WU Liya, Ian Cook Paru dans : Frontiers of Architectural Research, Volume 1, Issue 2, June 2012, Pages 101-149 Abstract This paper is a comprehensive study on the progress in research on Chinese urbanization. On the basis of the concept and connotation of Chinese urbanization defined by Chinese scholars, the paper systematically collects the research results on the issues concerning urbanization in China from the different approaches of demography, geography, city planning, economics and history, reviewing the process of research on Chinese urbanization made both domestically and internationally. In this paper, the domestic studies fall into five periods as follows: the initial period of research on urbanization in China (1978-1983); the period with both domestically constructed and borrowed theories on urbanization (1984-1988); the period of research on leading urbanization factors and localization (1989-1997); the period with the research greatly promoted by the government (1998-2004); and the period featuring flourishing studies on the science of urbanization in China (2005 till today). In contrast, the overseas research on Chinese urbanization can be divided into three periods: the period studying the history of urbanization in China (before the 1970s); the systematic research on Chinese urbanization (1970-1999); and the comprehensive research on Chinese urbanization (2000 till today). The paper focuses on the key results of research on Chinese urbanization, including nine issues as follows: the guidelines and road for urban development in China, the features of Chinese urbanization, the mechanism driving the growth of Chinese urbanization, the process of Chinese urbanization, the spatial patterns of Chinese urbanization, the urbanization in rural areas in China, the comparison of urbanization in China and other co
Monique Abud

UCI delegation participated in first annual NCF summit in Paris - 0 views

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    UCI delegation participated in first annual NCF summit in Paris 25/05/2012 The Chinese delegation takes a group photo with Lady Barbara, Judge, Chairman of the UK Pension Protection Fund. The first annual New Cities Foundation (NCF) Summit was held in Paris on May 14-16. The summit brought together more than 500 urban policy makers and thought leaders to a three-day conference on global urbanization, with China as one of the core focuses. The mayor of Paris delivered a welcome speech. Other speakers including Gregor Robertson, Mayor of Vancouver; Ron Huldai, Mayor of Tel Aviv; Khalifa Sall, Mayor of Dakar; Greg Clark, UK Minister of State for Decentralisation and Cities; as well as the CEOs of General Motors, Ericsson, Cisco, and Suez gas. The Urban China Initiative (UCI), a partner of the NCF, assisted in organizing the summit by inviting and organizing 16 government delegates, enterprise leaders, and academics from China, as well as designing the plenary session "A Closer Look at Urban China: Towards the Urban Billion." Chinese delegates shared their insights as speakers at plenary and breakout sessions, including: "Securing Investments for the Urban Century: How do we Pay for the Urban Boom," which featured Li Dongming, General Manager of the Urban Fund at China Development Bank Capital, as a speaker. "Hard and Software City," which featured Jonathan Woetzel, Co-Chair of the Urban China Initiative, Senior Director at McKinsey & Co., as a speaker. "A Closer Look at Urban China: Towards the Urban Billion," which featured five speakers from the UCI delegation, including Yuan Yue, CEO and Chairman of Horizon Research Consultancy Group; James Lee, AIA LEED-AP, President of iContinuum Group; Jonathan Woetzel; Xiao Jincheng, Deputy Director of the Land Economy and Regional Research Bureau at the National Development and Reform Commission; and Xie Chengxiang, Deputy Mayor of Huangshi in Hubei Province. "Modern Urban
Monique Abud

Smaller cities more beautiful - 0 views

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    Sur le site "The Urban China Initiaitve" 4/05/2012 By Li Jing ( China Daily) Urban leaders do more to safeguard environment, conserve resources Small and medium-sized cities are more livable than big cities such as Beijing and Shanghai gauged by their air quality, waste treatment capacity and built environment, according to newly published research by Urban China Initiative. A woman rides a bicycle on a windy day in Beijing. According to recently published research by Urban China Initiative, Beijing and Shanghai were absent from a ranking of the top 10 Chinese cities gauged by their environmental sustainability. [Photo/China Daily] UCI, a think tank launched by Tsinghua University, McKinsey & Co and Columbia University, gauged the sustainability of 112 major Chinese cities using 17 indicators in four categories - society, economy, environment and resources. Beijing ranked first in sustainability thanks to its heavy investment in social welfare - including social security, education and healthcare - and its economic achievements. The top 10 cities in overall score - including Xiamen, Fujian province, Haikou, the capital of Hainan province, Dalian in Liaoning province, and Shanghai - are all medium and large-sized cities. However, small and medium-sized cities are taking the lead in environmental sustainability. Both Beijing and Shanghai were absent from the top 10 in this category. According to the research, Haikou has the best air quality, while Hefei, capital of Anhui province, took the lead in waste treatment facilities. And Xining, the capital of Qinghai province, boasts the best built environment - man-made surroundings that serve as the setting for human activity. "Such a result shows that small cities have a better quality of life, though people living in megacities like Beijing and Shanghai have better access to medical and educational resources," said Jonathan Woetzel, co-chair of UCI, as well as a senior global dir
Monique Abud

Energy Consumption and Management in Public Buildings in China: An Investigation of Cho... - 0 views

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    [ScienceDirect, via Biblio-SHS] Auteur : Guiwen Liu, Zezhou Wu, Mingming Hu Paru dans : Energy Procedia, Volume 14, 2012, Pages 1925-1930 Abstract Around 30% of the national energy consumption in China can be attributed to buildings, of which one-fifth is consumed within public buildings. In recent time, public buildings have been reckoned as the dominant objects for conducting energy efficient management. In order to obtain valuable information for the assessment of energy consumption status, an investigation was conducted in Chongqing - the youngest, largest and most dynamic municipal in China. A number of public buildings, including 28 governmental office buildings, 15 emporiums and 5 hotels, were selected for the investigation from the aspect of energy cost. Based on the collected data of electricity, water and gas, the characteristics of the energy consumption in each type of the public buildings are discussed, and the energy management in each type of public buildings is compared. 2011 2nd International Conference on Advances in Energy Engineering (ICAEE)
Monique Abud

Challenges of creating cities in China: Lessons from a short-lived county-to-city upgra... - 0 views

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    [ScienceDirect, via Biblio-SHS] Auteur : Shenggen Fan, Lixing Li [et al.] Paru dans : Journal of Comparative Economics, Available online 10 January 2012, In Press, Corrected Proof Abstract It has been widely observed that China is under-urbanized. The central government has tried to use various policies to promote urbanization. In this paper, we evaluate one of these policies - count-to-city upgrading. Under China's hierarchical governance structure, a city status can only be determined and awarded by the central government. In the 1980s and 1990s, China adopted a formula-based county-to-city upgrading policy. Based on a large panel dataset covering all counties in China, we find that the formula was not strictly enforced in the practice. Moreover, jurisdictions that were upgraded to cities prior to 1998 do not perform better than their counterparts that remained county status in terms of both economic growth and providing public services. Largely because of these problems, this policy was called off in 1997. Given the strong need for urbanization, more indigenous institutional innovations are needed to find a viable way of creating cities, which would also provide compatible incentives to local governments. Highlights ► We examine a failed county-to-city upgrading policy in China. ► The newly awarded cities had a lackluster performance because the upgrading process was irreversible. ► After the policy was called off, China has adopted more indigenous institutional innovations in creating cities.
Monique Abud

Migration constraints and development: Hukou and capital accumulation in China - 0 views

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    Thématique 2 [ScienceDirect, via Biblio-SHS] Auteur : Thomas Vendryes Paru dans : China Economic Review Volume 22, Issue 4, December 2011, Pages 669-692 Sustainable natural resource use in rural China - Has China Passed the Lewis Turning Point? CERDI 2009 - CERDI 2009 Abstract Rural-urban migration flows are a crucial corollary of economic development. The adverse or beneficial effects of internal migration, for sending as well as receiving areas, and the definition of optimal migration policies, have remained much discussed issues since the seminal works of Harris and Todaro (1970). This debate is especially acute in China where the "household registration system" (hukou) acts as a strong constraint on individual migration. This paper aims to assess the consequences of hukou through a simple model of a developing dual economy with overlapping generations. Contrary to existing studies focused on the contemporaneous allocation of economic resources, it deals with the dynamic consequences of migration flows and migration policies. It shows that, in fairly general circumstances, hukou-related migration constraints can actually hasten development, understood as the transfer of the labor force to the modern sector, driven by capital accumulation. The hukou system could thus be one of the causes of the extremely high Chinese saving rate and of the high pace of Chinese development. Insights from the model are confronted with stylized facts from the Chinese development, and theoretical results are especially consistent with the effects of the 2001 "towns and small cities" reform.
Monique Abud

The Research Review of Land-Use and Land-Management Problems in the Joint of Urban and ... - 0 views

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    [ScienceDirect, via Biblio-SHS] Auteur : Zhang Xianchun, Shan Zhuoran Paru dans : Energy Procedia Volume 16, Part A, 2012, Pages 353-358 2012 International Conference on Future Energy, Environment, and Materials Abstract The urbanization level of china will exceed fifty percent in 2011. At the present stage, the urban-rural dual structure is more and more prominent. Due to the urban-rural dual management,many problems were found in the joint of urban and rural in the process of urbanization. This article summarizes the related achievements of land-use and management of Chinese joint of urban and rural for the last two decades. It introduces case-study in three aspects of cognitive, methodology and space planning, and discourses the achievements of different land-use types in the points of construction land, non-construction land.At the same time, this article elaborates the researches in landmanagement and points out the current excellent processes and the main problems.Finally, this article proposes the anticipation and prospect of study in the future.
Monique Abud

Transport development in China - 0 views

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    [ScienceDirect, via Biblio-SHS] Auteur : Adolf K.Y. Ng, James J. Wang Paru dans : Research in Transportation Economics, Volume 35, Issue 1, Pages 1-66 (May 2012) Editorial 1. Introduction Globalization has brought China ever close to the rest of the world not only through its trade and transport networks, but also many transport-related issues that seem to be in common among other countries, while simultaneously with special causes deep-rooted from its unique pathway of development especially in the past several decades. The major fundamental difference of China's development from other countries lies in its economy in general, while the transport sector, in particular, lies in the role of the government. Indeed, since the global financial crisis in 2008, advanced economies, such as the US and several EU countries, have intensified on how to redefine and strengthen the role of the state within respective economies. On the contrary, the Chinese situation is exactly the other way round: the debate is about how to reduce interferences from the very strong hands of the government towards a real regulated market. In this respect, the transport sector typifies this ongoing marketization process. On one extreme, the mode of highway transportation is fully marketized: private investors may construct toll expressways in almost any provinces, either as joint ventures partnering with state-owned firms or just as fully private developers. On the other side of the continuum, after more than three decades of 'reforms', railway infrastructures, as well as their operation, are still fully and tightly controlled by the Ministry of Railways (MOR) through its subsidiary's monopoly. In-between the highways and railways are air and maritime transportation, both of which being characterized by oligopolies with two to three state-owned listed companies taking up more than 80% of the market share. Given such situation, there is a clear interest for further understanding and re
Monique Abud

Challenges for container river services on the Yangtze River: A case study for Chongqing - 0 views

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    [ScienceDirect, via Biblio-SHS] Auteur : Theo Notteboom Paru dans : Research in Transportation Economics, Volume 35, Issue 1, May 2012, Pages 41-49 Transport Development in China Abstract China plays an increasingly important role on the international economic scene and in global supply chains. Initially only coastal regions participated in global supply chains, but in recent years comparative cost advantages have led to an increased participation of inland destinations in China's economic development. The growth of some inland regions has urged logistics players to revise and reconfigure their extensive logistics networks. This has been particularly the case in the Yangtze region. Upstream cities such as Chongqing are emerging as potential important production centres for the international markets. This paper discusses the challenges for container barge services on the Yangtze River to Chongqing. It is argued that a further strengthening of the global market position of Chongqing and other upstream locations demands further improvements in transport-related and logistical cost control and reliability. The performance of container river services on the Yangtze River is crucial for upstream economic regions to take part in world trade. The paper analyzes the costs aspects linked to transporting goods to the world markets and makes a comparison to gateway region Shanghai.
Monique Abud

The funding of hierarchical railway development in China - 0 views

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    [ScienceDirect, via Biblio-SHS] Auteur : James J. Wang, Chaohe Rong, Jiang Xu, Sui Wai Oscar Or Paru dans : Research in Transportation Economics, Volume 35, Issue 1, May 2012, Pages 26-33, Transport Development in China Abstract Transport networks are hierarchal in essence. In this paper, we explore the relationship between the financing structure and the hierarchal evolution of railway network development, using the case of China. Although privatization and corporatization in transport provision have been trends in some parts of the world, the national government is still the main body responsible for railway development in many countries. Among these countries, China and India are the only two that include the Ministry of Railways (MOR). In India, the entire country's railways are clearly defined as public services provided and managed by the MOR. In China, railways have been corporatized; yet, the MOR and the National Railway Corporation are still widely regarded as a single body that has monopolistic power over almost all railway systems at the national and regional levels in both infrastructure development and operation. We argue that when multi-level railway networks are evolved from a single-level (national) network due to market growth in countries such as China, where different levels of government are responsible for infrastructure planning and development, the state's monopolistic control of operation and its corresponding financing structure may not fit the operation of new multi-level networks. However, the suitable institutional set-up for the new networks may be delayed or never established for many reasons, some of which, as demonstrated in this paper, are place-specific and path-dependent. The case study of Chinese railway systems in comparison with the situations of other Asian countries (i.e. India and Japan) will shed some light on a better understanding of various financing models and development paths of multi-level transpo
Monique Abud

The growth impact of transport infrastructure investment: A regional analysis for China... - 0 views

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    [ScienceDirect, via Biblio-SHS] Auteur : Nannan Yu, Martin De Jong, Servaas Storm, Jianing Mi Paru dans : Policy and Society Volume 31, Issue 1, March 2012, Pages 25-38 The state of the transport infrastructures in China Abstract This study aims to explore the impact of transport capital stock on economic growth in Chinese regions. Using panel data for a sample of 28 provinces and municipalities over the period 1978-2008, the empirical findings show that there is significant spatial variation in the productivity effects of transport infrastructure in China. The highest output elasticity in the connection provinces of the central region means that transport investments there will yield the highest economic returns, which is in line with "the emergence of new economic center" theory. From a policy perspective, China had best give priority to the development of transport facilities in the backland region to realize the rise of Central China.
Monique Abud

Air quality management in China: Issues, challenges, and options - 0 views

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    [ScienceDirect, via Biblio-SHS] Auteur : Shuxiao Wang, Jiming Hao Paru dans : Journal of Environmental Sciences, Volume 24, Issue 1, January 2012, Pages 2-13 Abstract This article analyzed the control progress and current status of air quality, identified the major air pollution issues and challenges in future, proposed the long-term air pollution control targets, and suggested the options for better air quality in China. With the continuing growth of economy in the next 10-15 years, China will face a more severe situation of energy consumption, electricity generation and vehicle population leading to increase in multiple pollutant emissions. Controlling regional air pollution especially fine particles and ozone, as well as lowering carbon emissions from fossil fuel consumption will be a big challenge for the country. To protect public health and the eco-system, the ambient air quality in all Chinese cities shall attain the national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) and ambient air quality guideline values set by the World Health Organization (WHO). To achieve the air quality targets, the emissions of SO2, NOx, PM10, and volatile organic compounds (VOC) should decrease by 60%, 40%, 50%, and 40%, respectively, on the basis of that in 2005. A comprehensive control policy focusing on multiple pollutants and emission sources at both the local and regional levels was proposed to mitigate the regional air pollution issue in China. The options include development of clean energy resources, promotion of clean and efficient coal use, enhancement of vehicle pollution control, implementation of synchronous control of multiple pollutants including SO2, NOx, VOC, and PM emissions, joint prevention and control of regional air pollution, and application of climate friendly air pollution control measures.
Monique Abud

Urbanization strategies, rural development and land use changes in China: A multiple-le... - 0 views

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    [ScienceDirect, via Biblio-SHS] Auteur : Giuseppina Siciliano, Institute of Environmental Science and Technology, Autonomous University of Barcelona, 08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona, Spain / University IUAV of Venice, Ca' Tron, Santa Croce 1957, 30135 Venezia, Italy Paru dans : Land Use Policy Volume 29, Issue 1, January 2012, Pages 165-178 Abstract This paper links urbanization strategies to changes in land use and associated impacts on rural communities and agro-ecosystems in a rural area of China. Energy, monetary and human time variables as well as information on environmental pressures, have been combined to compare different typologies of households and the metabolism of different patterns of land use from an integrated perspective. The results show that urbanization strategies, aimed at shifting the current land use and at displacing the local population, while increasing the economic efficiency is also associated with an increase in fossil energy consumption and environmental pressure, as well as a reduction of the multifunctional characteristic of the area under investigation. Based on these findings the paper also offers a critical discussion of the Chinese rural development policy arguing that the multifunctionality of rural areas should be taken into account by Chinese policy-makers and planners as a viable strategy to achieve rural development targets. Highlights ► Urbanization strategies in China drive the land use change of rural areas. ► Forced migration decreases rural food self-sufficiency and diversification of risk. ► HEPA patterns have higher economic efficiency and energy intensity than LEPA. ► Rural-urban migrations favor the creation of mono-functional agricultural systems.
Monique Abud

Attitude and willingness toward participation in decision-making of urban green spaces ... - 0 views

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    [ScienceDirect, via Biblio-SHS] Auteur : Xi-Zhang Shan, School of Geographical Sciences, South China Normal University, No. 55 Zhongshan Avenue West, Tianhe District, Guangzhou 510631, PR China Paru dans : Urban Forestry & Urban Greening, Volume 11, Issue 2, 2012, Pages 211-217 Abstract Urban green spaces serve a variety of residents with various perceptions, preferences and demands. Their effective governance and precision provision increasingly require public input. Due to the unique political regime, public decision-making in China has long been controlled by governments with the public neglected. With increasing civic consciousness in recent years in urban China, this research investigated attitudes and willingness toward participation in planning, management and design of urban green spaces in Guangzhou. Face-to-face questionnaire surveys were conducted at the 24 green sites across the city with 595 respondents successfully interviewed. The results demonstrated the positive attitudes and strong willingness toward participation despite socioeconomic variations, fitting into a global trend of increasing civic consciousness and strengthening the theoretical base of public participation. Practically, the positive findings lay a sound social foundation for the participatory decision-making in urban China, and help to drive local governments more open and inclusive and develop effective governance strategies and mechanisms to promote public participation in decision-making of urban green spaces.
Monique Abud

Scenarios of changes in the spatial pattern of land use in China - 0 views

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    [ScienceDirect, via Biblio-SHS] Auteur : XiaoFang Sun, TianXiangYue, ZeMeng Fan Paru dans : Procedia Environmental Sciences, Volume 13, 2012, Pages 590-597 18th Biennial ISEM Conference on Ecological Modelling for Global Change and Coupled Human and Natural System Abstract Land use changes affect many aspects of Earth System functioning, for example in impacting global carbon cycle, contributing to climate change, or increasing soil erosion. The simulation of land use change is important in environmental impact assessment and land use planning. We assessed the land use scenarios of China in the next 100 years based on the SMLC (surface modelling of land cover change) model and Dyna-CLUE (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects) model. Three SRES scenarios were evaluated: Global Economy (A1FI): lean government, strong globalization; Continental Markets (A2a): lean government, regional culture and economic development; Regional communities (B2a): much government intervention, regional cultural and economic development. Ten land cover types were simulated, which are cultivated land, woodland, grassland, built-up land, water area, wetland, nival area, desert, bare rock and desertification land. The SMLC model was used to calculate changes in area for each land use types in the future at country level while the spatially explicit land use model Dyna-CLUE was used to simulate land use pattern at 2 km2 resolution based on the country level areas demands for each land cover type. The results show that the cultivated land would decrease in all of the three scenarios, while in the A2a scenario, the cultivated land would decrease with the lowest rate because of the high population growth, high level of market protection and low agricultural efficiency; in the B2a scenario, it would decrease with the highest rate caused by the decreased population numbers and increased crop productivity. The nival area would decrease with the highest rate in the A1FI
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