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Wade Ren

The end of Bretton Woods 2? - 0 views

blogs.cfr.org/...the-end-of-bretton-woods-2

2008-crisis economics

shared by Wade Ren on 29 Oct 08 - Cached
  • The Bretton Woods 2 system – where China and then the oil-exporters provided (subsidized) financing to the US to sustain their exports – will come close to ending, at least temporarily. If the US and Europe are not importing much, the rest of the world won’t be exporting much.
  • And rather than ending with a whimper, Bretton Woods 2 may end with a bang. In some sense Bretton Woods 2 has been on life support for a while now. China’s recent export growth has depended far more on Europe than on the US. US demand for non-oil imports peaked in 2006. One irony of the past year is that the US was borrowing far more from China that it was buying from China. Campaign rhetoric that the US was paying for Saudi oil with funds borrowed from China isn’t far off – though it leaves out the fact that the US also borrows from Saudi Arabia to pay for Venezuelan, Mexican and Nigerian oil.
  • If Bretton Woods 2 ends in 2009 – if US demand for imports falls sharply in the last part of 2008 and early 2009, bringing the US trade deficit down – it won’t have ended in the way Nouriel and I outlined back in late 2004 and early 2005. We postulated that foreign demand for US debt would dry up – pushing up US Treasury rates and delivering a nasty shock to a housing-centric economy. As Brad DeLong notes, it didn’t quite play out that way. The US and European banking system collapsed before the balance of financial terror collapsed. Dr. DeLong writes: All of us from Lawrence Summers to John Taylor were expecting a very different financial crisis. We were expecting the ‘Balance of Financial Terror’ between Asia and America to collapse and produce chaos. We are not having that financial crisis. Instead we are having a very different financial crisis. Catastrophic failures of risk management throughout the entire banking sector caused a relatively minor collapse in housing prices to freeze up global finance to a degree that has not been seen since the Great Depression. The end result of this crisis though could be rather similar: a sharp contraction in credit, a fall in US economic activity, a fall in US imports and a fall in the amount of foreign financing the US needs.* The US government is (possibly) trying to offset the fall in private demand by borrowing more and spending more — but as of now there is realistic risk that the fall in private activity will trump the fiscal stimulus.
  • ...11 more annotations...
  • Or, to put it more succinctly, Bretton Woods 2, as it evolved, hinged both on the willingness of foreign central banks to take the currency risk associated with lending to the US at low rates in dollars despite the United States large current account deficit AND the willingness of private financial intermediaries to take the credit risk associated with lending at low rates to highly-indebted US households.
  • But now US financial institutions are neither willing nor able to take on the risk of lending even more to US households. For a while the US government was able to ramp up its lending to households (notably through the Agencies) and in the process effectively take over the function previously performed by the private financial system (over the last four quarters, the flow of funds data indicates that the Agencies provided around $800 billion of net credit to US households). But now the US government is struggling to keep the financial system from collapsing. It doesn’t seem like it will able to avoid a sharp fall in the overall availability of credit.
  • It is now clear how the financial sector kept profits up: it took on more risk, as it shifted from borrowing short to buy safe long-term assets (Treasuries and Agencies) to borrowing short to buy risky long-term assets. Leverage in the system also increased (and for some broker dealers that seems to be an understatement), as more and more financial institutions believed that the US had entered into an era of little macroeconomic or financial volatility. The net result seems to have been a truly explosive concentration of risk in the hands of a core set of financial intermediaries in the US and Europe. Securitization – it seems – actually didn’t disperse risk into the hands of institutions able to handle it.
  • I hope that the process of adjustment now underway isn’t as sharp as I fear. The US economy gradually can shift from producing MBS for sale to US investors flush with cash from the sale of safe securities to China and Saudi Arabia to producing goods and services for export – but it cannot shift from churning out complex debt securities to producing goods and services overnight. Indeed, in a slowing US and global economy, improvements in the US deficit will likely come from faster falls in US imports than in US exports – not from ongoing growth in US exports.
  • But right now it looks like there is a real risk that the adjustment won’t be gradual. And it certainly looks like the flow of Chinese (and Gulf) savings to US households over the past few years has produced one of the largest misallocations of global capital in recent history.
  • US taxpayers are going to be hit with a large tab for the credit risk taken on by undercapitalized financial intermediaries. Chinese taxpayers may get hit with a similar tab for the losses their central bank incurred by overpaying for US and European assets as part of its policy of holding its exchange rate down. The TARP is around 5% of US GDP. There are plausible estimates that China’s currency losses will prove to be of comparable magnitude. Charles Dumas puts the cost at above 5% of GDP: “Charles Dumas of Lombard Street Research estimates that China makes 1-2 per cent on its (largely) dollar reserves. It then loses up to 10 per cent on the exchange rate and suffers a Chinese inflation rate of 6 per cent for a total real return in renminbi of about minus 15 per cent. That is a loss of $270bn a year, or a stunning 7-8 per cent of gross domestic product.”
  • Jboss — if some of the Chinese inflow could be redirected into investment in alternative energy, that would indeed be a win/ win. Some infrastructure bank style ideas have promise in my view — basically, the flow that used to go to freddie/ fannie could go to wind farms and the like. I would rather see more adjustment in china (i.e. more investment in Chinese infrastructure) but during the transition, if there is one, to a lower Chinese surplus, redirecting chinese financing toward new energy tech would be offer real benefits.
  • China likes 3rd generation nuclear power. Safe, lower cost than NG or coal, very much lower cost than coal with carbon sequestering, and zero carbon footprint. Wind is about 4X more expensive than our electric costs now. That’s in an area with consistent wind. Solar is worse. I don’t know if we can sucker them into investing in our technical fairy tales. Here’s a easy primer on 3rd gen nukes. http://nuclearinfo.net/Nuclearpower/WebHomeCostOfNuclearPower
    • Wade Ren
      Wade Ren on 29 Oct 08
       
      is this true?
  • btw, solar thermal installations are so easy & affordable to retrofit onto existing structures, it’s amazing that there aren’t more of them here…until you realize that they work to decentralize energy. cedric — china is already doing it in china. they are way ahead of the curve over there. my partner brought back some photos of shanghai — rows of middle class homes each with a small solar panel on top. and that’s just the tip of the iceberg — an architect friend just came back from beijing and wants to move to china (he’s into designing self-powering structures and is incredibly frustrated by the bureaucracy and cost-prohibitive measures in the US).
  • I went to engineering school right after the Arab Oil Embargo, and alternative energy was a hot topic then. All the same stuff you hear of nowadays. They even offered entire courses on it , which I took. Then my first mini career was in the power plant biz, before Volker killed it with interest rates and the Saudies killed any interest in alt. energy with their big oil field discovery. For the last 5 years I’ve been researching what’s changed, and it is frighteningly little. Solar cells are still expensive and only have a 15% conversion efficiency. They developed the new cost reduced film technology, but that knocks down efficiency to 7%. Wind power works where there is wind constantly. Generators are mature technology and are already 90 some percent efficient. Geothermal, tidal, ect. work where they are available. Looks like coal gasification and synfuel is out because it makes too much CO2. Good news is 3rd gen nuclear is way better than 1st gen plants. Hybrid cars are good, and battery technology is finally getting barely good enough for all electric cars to be practical.
  • According to news report today, Japan’s trade surplus is less than 1 billion $ in September 08, a whopping 94% decrease compared to September 07. Does it imply that going forward Japan can not buy as much treasury as before?
Colin Bennett

How the insurance market perceives nanotechnology risks - 0 views

www.nanowerk.com/...spotid=38464.php

trends copper nanotechnology

shared by Colin Bennett on 19 Dec 14 - No Cached
  • Colin Bennett on 19 Dec 14
     
    "Their paper (Insurance Market Perception of Nanotechnology and Nanomaterials Risks; pdf) in the Risk Management newsletter of The Geneva Association seeks to address this gap by providing some insight into the insurers' awareness and perception on nanotechnology and nanomaterials risks. "
xxx xxx

Inmet's Bid for Petaquilla Copper - 0 views

seekingalpha.com/...et-s-bid-for-petaquilla-copper

copper

shared by xxx xxx on 18 Jul 08 - Cached
  • xxx xxx on 18 Jul 08
     
    There is no consensus among the analysts on Inmet Mining Corp.'s (IEMMF.PK) C$345-million hostile bid to take out its junior partner Petaquilla Copper Ltd. (PTQLF.PK). On the positive side, Raymond James analyst Tom Meyer wrote that by moving its stake in the Petaquilla copper project from 48% to 74%, Inmet would gain "important strategic flexibility" and lower the risk profile on the project. If Petaquilla Copper was bought out, Inmet and Teck Cominco Ltd. (TCK) would be the sole remaining partners and the legal action between Petaquilla Copper and Teck would presumably end. In a note, Mr. Meyer wrote: With two shareholders in the project as opposed to three, we believe it is safe to say that rational decision-making may likely become less of a bottleneck and the project can move forward at a faster rate. He added that by going to a 74% interest, Inmet could be in a position to potentially buy Teck Cominco's stake as well. Analyst Greg Barnes from TD Newcrest presents the negative view. He wrote that the economics of the Petaquilla project are "marginal" and figures that it would need a long-term copper price above $2.25 a pound for it to work. He also noted a "lack of clarity" on how Inmet could optimize value from the project. He wrote: Until Inmet is able to verify improved project parameters, we feel that the company is overpaying for a project that has less than compelling economics. Over at UBS Securities, analyst Onno Rutten's opinion is a little more mixed. He thinks that Inmet's C$2.00-a-share offer for Petaquilla Copper is "a steep premium," but would accelerate the project's development if it is successful. That could unlock value for Inmet. However, Mr. Rutten shares Mr. Barnes' concerns about the risks of the project; he pointed out that Inmet, a C$3-billion company, is trying to build a project that costs close to C$4-billion. He also said that Petaquilla needs strong copper prices to be economic. But he wrote that the financi
Colin Bennett

World Economic Forum - Global Risks 2013 - 0 views

reports.weforum.org/...survey-findings

trends copper resource nationalism

shared by Colin Bennett on 27 Mar 13 - No Cached
  • For each of the 50 global risks, respondents were asked to assess, on a scale from 1 to 5, the likelihood of the risks occurring over the next 10 years and the impact if the risk were to occur.
Colin Bennett

EU starts screening raw materials 'critical list' - 0 views

www.euractiv.com/...article-187791

trends copper rare earth

shared by Colin Bennett on 01 Dec 09 - Cached
  • Three types of risk The expert group put together by the Commission has already identified three types of risks: Import risk, where raw materials are imported from a politically instable region or from a country where the market economy does not work. "That is relatively easy to do as the World Bank has put together governance indexes which measure the political and economic stability index of countries," the EU official explained.    Production risk within the EU, with potential problems such as land access. "If we are in a country for example where the population density is very high, where urbanisation is very high, obviously access will be weak," the EU official explained. Environmental risk, based on indicators such as air or soil pollution, where the impact of raw materials use is measured from an environmental point of view. "This is innovative compared to other studies," the EU official said. "We have just launched a life-cycle analysis to determine what the environmental impact is for each raw material in terms of exploitation, use, treatment, recycling etc., for air or soil pollution as well as emissions of greenhouse gases."
Colin Bennett

The Global Economy in 2014, by Christine Lagarde, Managing Director, International Mone... - 0 views

www.imf.org/...011514.htm

trends copper economy

shared by Colin Bennett on 16 Jan 14 - No Cached
  • In just a few days, we will be releasing our updated forecasts. While our numbers are still being finalized, I will talk about the main trends as we see them.
  • Colin Bennett on 16 Jan 14
     
    * Momentum strengthened in the latter half of 2013, and should strengthen further in 2014-largely due to improvements in the advanced economies. * Yet, global growth is still stuck in low gear. It remains below its potential, which we think is somewhere around 4 percent. * Even for the advanced economies, however, the outlook is still subject to significant risks. With inflation running below many central banks' targets, we see rising risks of deflation, which could prove disastrous for the recovery. * During the years of crisis, we have relied on the emerging markets to keep the global economy afloat. Together with the developing countries, they accounted for three-quarters of global growth over the past half decade. However, a growing number of emerging markets are slowing down as the economic cycle turns.
Colin Bennett

Consortium appointed to deliver study to cut costs of offshore wind - 0 views

www.yourgeneratornews.com/ts+of+offshore+wind_33583.html

trends copper renewables wind

shared by Colin Bennett on 11 Mar 14 - No Cached
  • Colin Bennett on 11 Mar 14
     
    "Through the development of the round one and two wind farms it has become apparent that a disproportionate amount of risk lies within the installation and burial of the power cables. This project will look at the methods and equipment used during the design and specification of installation requirements for export and array cable systems in the offshore wind industry. It aims to reduce risks to the cables during installation and operation, and reduce costs for installation and operation and maintenance activities."
Colin Bennett

Technology to help substitution challenges - 1 views

www.metalbulletin.com/...p-substitution-challenges.html

trends copper substitution

shared by Colin Bennett on 17 Jun 15 - No Cached
  • Colin Bennett on 17 Jun 15
     
    "The copper industry is already facing substitution challenges from materials like aluminium and needs to use technology to help ensure larger-scale, more permanent switches are not made, industry participants said. A group of panelists at the Metal Bulletin and American Metal Market Copper Seminar in New York on Wednesday June 6 said that while technology is clearly an opportunity for the industry, there are still some risks. According to Freeport McMoRan vp sales and marketing Steve Higgins, much of the "easy substitution" - such as plumbing tube or transformer lines - has already happened. "Substitution is less than 2% of refined demand today… It's a bit troubling, but it happens," he said. "The bigger worry is that aluminium is going to make inroads into products that have high switching costs - ACR tubing, motors, or into some medium to high voltage power cables and the like that the manufacturers have to go in and put in a lot of capital costs to convert. Once converted, switching back becomes "extraordinarily difficult," he said. "That's the biggest risk to our market as I..."
Brian Butler

GloboTrends Wiki / FrontPage - 0 views

globotrends.pbwiki.com

business crisis trend trends finance credit globotrends global international

shared by Brian Butler on 12 Feb 09 - Cached
  • Brian Butler on 12 Feb 09
     
    Top Trends for 2009: On our GloboTrends wiki homepage, we will keep an updated list of global macro trends that we think are the most important to keep an eye on. Some of this list are statistically unlikely to occur, but if they did, it could cause global disruption. These unlikely events were dubbed Black Swan's in a book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb , or might be called the "fat tail" probability in statistics. Others trends we are watching in the GloboTrends wiki are currently ongoing right now (such as our coverage of the credit crisis, deleveraging, margin calls, etc), and we will talk about how they happened, and predict their likely outcome. The format of a wiki makes the document dynamic, so any of our community is welcome to help shape our views of these important developments. Please log in to our wiki, and feel free to comment... In no particular order, here are the global macro trends that we think will be most significant in the coming year (2009): 1. credit crisis of 2007/08 will continue on into 2009...this one is clear...but, how long will it last? how will it fundamentally change international finance? Add your comments to our wiki... 2. fiscal stimulus and crisis recovery 2009 3. deleveraging of Financial markets will continue. In my opinion, this is the most destructive of all the trends. 4. Risk of deflation in the US as Fed Funds target rate approaches zero (other analysts see the opposite risk of potential hyper inflation). Add your comments.. 5. more... add to this list.. Predictions-for-2009
Colin Bennett

DNV GL continues drive for risk and cost reduction in global wind industry via three ne... - 0 views

www.yourgeneratornews.com/ndustry+initiatives_36694.html

trends copper renewables wind

shared by Colin Bennett on 19 Mar 15 - No Cached
  • Colin Bennett on 19 Mar 15
     
    "Targeted outcomes include state-of-art industrial accepted methods to reduce risk and cost Continued effort on cost reduction needed to help secure future of global wind business - especially offshore"
Colin Bennett

Smart Grid: PHEV adoption and grid impact: a cost-efficient solution to accommodate inc... - 0 views

www.smartgridnews.com/...odate-increased-load-4961.html

trends Copper superconductors substitution

shared by Colin Bennett on 16 Jul 12 - No Cached
  • Superconductor cables, only recently available for utility applications, uniquely solve these issues. A single distribution voltage superconductor cable can carry amounts of power normally associated with transmission voltage levels, therefore eliminating the need for multiple cables and greatly simplifying placement issues.  Superconductor cables also have a unique dual-personality; under normal conditions they conduct power very efficiently, but during faults they actually limit the amount of current that can flow through them. This eliminates the risk of substation equipment damage from excessively high fault currents when paralleling substations. The installation of superconductor cable-powered bus ties between distribution substations serve as an efficient means to utilize more effectively and fully the existing power delivery infrastructure while simultaneously increasing reliability.
  • Colin Bennett on 16 Jul 12
     
    Superconductor cables, only recently available for utility applications, uniquely solve these issues. A single distribution voltage superconductor cable can carry amounts of power normally associated with transmission voltage levels, therefore eliminating the need for multiple cables and greatly simplifying placement issues. Superconductor cables also have a unique dual-personality; under normal conditions they conduct power very efficiently, but during faults they actually limit the amount of current that can flow through them. This eliminates the risk of substation equipment damage from excessively high fault currents when paralleling substations. The installation of superconductor cable-powered bus ties between distribution substations serve as an efficient means to utilize more effectively and fully the existing power delivery infrastructure while simultaneously increasing reliability.
Colin Bennett

Global supply chains face heightened risks - 0 views

www.ft.com/...f6-11e4-99aa-00144feab7de.html

trends copper

shared by Colin Bennett on 11 May 15 - No Cached
  • Colin Bennett on 11 May 15
     
    "In Asia-Pacific, the vital Chinese manufacturing and heavy industrial sectors are at risk of defaulting on state-backed loans. Meanwhile, in Latin America, Brazilian, Chilean and Argentine suppliers are all suffering from lower soyabean and copper prices. "
Colin Bennett

Freeport, Codelco See Copper Market Risk From China - 0 views

www.businessweek.com/...-risk-from-china-update1-.html

trends copper Codelco FMI

shared by Colin Bennett on 04 Jun 10 - Cached
  • Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc. and Codelco, the world’s two largest copper producers, said China’s plans to curb its economy threaten to reduce demand for the metal after prices slumped 15 percent in two months. The copper market will be “volatile” for as much as another year after China took measures to cool its property market, Codelco Chief Executive Officer Diego Hernandez said yesterday in an interview at Bloomberg headquarters in New York. The Asian nation is a “risk to the world’s market place in the near term,” Freeport CEO Richard Adkerson said in an interview.
Colin Bennett

Carbon nanotubes coated to reduce health risks - 0 views

www.materialstoday.com/...-coated-to-reduce-health-risks

trends copper nanotechnology health

shared by Colin Bennett on 15 Oct 14 - No Cached
  • A new interdisciplinary study has shown that coating multi-walled carbon nanotubes (CNTs) with aluminum oxide could lower the risk of lung injuries such as pulmonary fibrosis.
Colin Bennett

Global green tech revolution at risk, India can play role in reforming mining practices... - 3 views

www.outlookindia.com/...1707857

Trends Copper India Mining

shared by Colin Bennett on 14 Jan 20 - No Cached
Glycon Garcia

Donald Sadoway: The missing link to renewable energy | Video on TED.com - 0 views

www.ted.com/..._link_to_renewable_energy.html

renewable battery

shared by Glycon Garcia on 27 Mar 12 - No Cached
  • Donald Sadoway: The missing link to renewable energy
  • What's the key to using alternative energy, like solar and wind? Storage -- so we can have power on tap even when the sun's not out and the wind's not blowing. In this accessible, inspiring talk, Donald Sadoway takes to the blackboard to show us the future of large-scale batteries that store renewable energy. As he says: "We need to think about the problem differently. We need to think big. We need to think cheap." Donald S
  • Glycon Garcia on 27 Mar 12
     
    "Donald Sadoway: The missing link to renewable energy Tweet this talk! (we'll add the headline and the URL) Post to: Share on Twitter Email This Favorite Download inShare Share on StumbleUpon Share on Reddit Share on Facebook TED Conversations Got an idea, question, or debate inspired by this talk? Start a TED Conversation, or join one of these: Green Home Energy=Hydrogen Generators-alternative sources Started by Kathleen Gilligan-Smith 1 Comment What is the real missing link in renewable energy? Started by Enrico Petrucco 8 Comments Comment on this Talk 60 total comments Sign in to add comments or Join (It's free and fast!) Sort By: smily raichel 0 Reply Less than 5 minutes ago: Nice smily raichel 0 Reply Less than 5 minutes ago: Good David Mackey 0 Reply 3 hours ago: Superb invention, but I would suggest one more standard mantra that they should move on from and that is the idea of power being supplied by a centralised grid. This technology seems to me to be much more beneficial on a local scale, what if every home had its own battery, then home power generation becomes economically more viable for everyone. If you could show that a system like this could pay for itself in say 5 years then every home would want one. Plus for this to be implemented on a large scale requires massive investment that could be decades away. Share the technology and lets get it in homes by next year. Great ted talk. Jon Senior 0 Reply 1 hour ago: I agree 100%. Localised energy production would also make energy consumers more conscious of their consumption and encourage efforts to reduce it. We can invent and invent all we want, but the fast solution to allowing renewable energies to take centre stage is to reduce the base energy draw. With lower baseline consumption, smaller "always on" generators are required to keep the grid operational. Town and house-l
anonymous

A new era for commodities - McKinsey Quarterly - Energy, Resources, Materials - Environ... - 1 views

www.mckinseyquarterly.com/A_new_era_for_commodities_2887

shared by anonymous on 18 Nov 11 - No Cached
  • A new era for commodities
  • anonymous on 18 Nov 11
     
    A new era for commodities Cheap resources underpinned economic growth for much of the 20th century. The 21st will be different. NOVEMBER 2011 * Richard Dobbs, Jeremy Oppenheim, and Fraser Thompson Source: McKinsey Global Institute, Sustainability & Resource Productivity Practice In This Article Exhibit: In little more than a decade, soaring commodity prices have erased a century of steady declines. About the authors Comments (2) Has the global economy entered an era of persistently high, volatile commodity prices? Our research shows that during the past eight years alone, they have undone the decline of the previous century, rising to levels not seen since the early 1900s (exhibit). In addition, volatility is now greater than at any time since the oil-shocked 1970s because commodity prices increasingly move in lockstep. Our analysis suggests that they will remain high and volatile for at least the next 20 years if current trends hold-barring a major macroeconomic shock-as global resource markets oscillate in response to surging global demand and inelastic supplies. Back to top Demand for energy, food, metals, and water should rise inexorably as three billion new middle-class consumers emerge in the next two decades.1 The global car fleet, for example, is expected almost to double, to 1.7 billion, by 2030. In India, we expect calorie intake per person to rise by 20 percent during that period, while per capita meat consumption in China could increase by 60 percent, to 80 kilograms (176 pounds) a year. Demand for urban infrastructure also will soar. China, for example, could annually add floor space totaling 2.5 times the entire residential and commercial square footage of the city of Chicago, while India could add floor space equal to another Chicago every year. Such dramatic growth in demand for commodities actually isn't unusual. Similar factors were at play throughout the 20th century as the planet's population tripled and demand for various resource
James Wright

Germany - Aurubis highlights production risks due to Germany's new power legislation - 0 views

www.aurubis.com/...d-payment-of-eur-120-per-share

Aurubis Germany power electricity copper products

shared by James Wright on 02 Mar 12 - No Cached
  • James Wright on 02 Mar 12
     
    The German copper cathode and semis fabricator, Aurubis, has reported its concerns over the Federal Government's decision to phase out nuclear power. Aurubis said that the new legislative package, which involves the decommissioning of seven base load power plants, does not ensure that electricity will remain secure and affordable for the company. As such, it believes that power supply now represents a significant downside risk to its operations. In the event of a momentary power failure, the company would suffer a half-day cathode production loss. A sustained power shortage or blackout could cause substantial damage to plant equipment as liquid melts solidify. Aurubis said that steps were required to be taken to expand the power grid and increase power plant capacities. The company currently uses 1Bn KWh/y, approximately the same amount as 600,000 inhabitants.
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