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Glycon Garcia

Donald Sadoway: The missing link to renewable energy | Video on TED.com - 0 views

  • Donald Sadoway: The missing link to renewable energy
  • What's the key to using alternative energy, like solar and wind? Storage -- so we can have power on tap even when the sun's not out and the wind's not blowing. In this accessible, inspiring talk, Donald Sadoway takes to the blackboard to show us the future of large-scale batteries that store renewable energy. As he says: "We need to think about the problem differently. We need to think big. We need to think cheap." Donald S
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    "Donald Sadoway: The missing link to renewable energy Tweet this talk! (we'll add the headline and the URL) Post to: Share on Twitter Email This Favorite Download inShare Share on StumbleUpon Share on Reddit Share on Facebook TED Conversations Got an idea, question, or debate inspired by this talk? Start a TED Conversation, or join one of these: Green Home Energy=Hydrogen Generators-alternative sources Started by Kathleen Gilligan-Smith 1 Comment What is the real missing link in renewable energy? Started by Enrico Petrucco 8 Comments Comment on this Talk 60 total comments Sign in to add comments or Join (It's free and fast!) Sort By: smily raichel 0 Reply Less than 5 minutes ago: Nice smily raichel 0 Reply Less than 5 minutes ago: Good David Mackey 0 Reply 3 hours ago: Superb invention, but I would suggest one more standard mantra that they should move on from and that is the idea of power being supplied by a centralised grid. This technology seems to me to be much more beneficial on a local scale, what if every home had its own battery, then home power generation becomes economically more viable for everyone. If you could show that a system like this could pay for itself in say 5 years then every home would want one. Plus for this to be implemented on a large scale requires massive investment that could be decades away. Share the technology and lets get it in homes by next year. Great ted talk. Jon Senior 0 Reply 1 hour ago: I agree 100%. Localised energy production would also make energy consumers more conscious of their consumption and encourage efforts to reduce it. We can invent and invent all we want, but the fast solution to allowing renewable energies to take centre stage is to reduce the base energy draw. With lower baseline consumption, smaller "always on" generators are required to keep the grid operational. Town and house-l
Colin Bennett

Myanmar power infrastructure - 0 views

  • As the economy attempts to take off from the current position, the power sector holds the key to support rapid economic growth in the currently power starved country. This is likely to create significant investment opportunities in the power sector. Currently, there exists a major power crisis in the country. The scope to bridge the impending power demand-supply gap offers huge investment opportunities for both the multinational and domestic companies across the power industry value chain from generation to transmission and distribution and in distributed power generation including power rental sector.
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    As the economy attempts to take off from the current position, the power sector holds the key to support rapid economic growth in the currently power starved country. This is likely to create significant investment opportunities in the power sector. Currently, there exists a major power crisis in the country. The scope to bridge the impending power demand-supply gap offers huge investment opportunities for both the multinational and domestic companies across the power industry value chain from generation to transmission and distribution and in distributed power generation including power rental sector
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Sony Invests $369M to Expand Lithium-Ion Battery Production - 0 views

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    Sony Corp will invest $369 million (40 billion yen) to power up its lithium-ion battery production operations, adding new facilities and augmenting existing lines. The infusion, which Sony said is the first phase of investment in lithium-ion batteries the company is undertaking as part of efforts to reinforce core areas of its component and semiconductor business over the next three years, will be used to construct new production facilities and to enhance existing lines at Sony's lithium-ion battery production sites in Japan, the Motomiya Technology Center and Tochigi Technology Center of Sony Energy Device Corp. Sony said it is making the investment in response to the growing demand for lithium-ion batteries and that the new production facilities will focus on electrodes, battery cell production lines, and charge and discharge equipment, among other technologies. Sony further reminded its expanding lithium-ion battery production in Singapore and China, and said that in total its monthly production capacity will increase from the current level of 41 million cells per month to 74 million cells in 2010. Sony's $369 million investment will start in its current fiscal year and continue through the second half of its fiscal year 2010. Sony's fiscal Q1 2008 concluded in June. Meanwhile, Matsushita Electric Industrial Co recently committed $923 million (100 billion yen) to build a plant in Osaka, Japan, that is expected to bring its cell production to about 75 million a month from its current 25 million cells per month. Sanyo Electric Co has also reportedly announced plans to invest, promising $1.15 billion (125 billion yen) to develop its rechargeable-batteries business over the next three years. That investment is expected to increase cell output to 90 million per month from Sanyo's current 70 million cells per month. All three of the Japan-based companies last year suffered from loses brought on by their battery operations. Sony-made lithium-
Colin Bennett

Smart Grid: PHEV adoption and grid impact: a cost-efficient solution to accommodate inc... - 0 views

  • Superconductor cables, only recently available for utility applications, uniquely solve these issues. A single distribution voltage superconductor cable can carry amounts of power normally associated with transmission voltage levels, therefore eliminating the need for multiple cables and greatly simplifying placement issues.  Superconductor cables also have a unique dual-personality; under normal conditions they conduct power very efficiently, but during faults they actually limit the amount of current that can flow through them. This eliminates the risk of substation equipment damage from excessively high fault currents when paralleling substations. The installation of superconductor cable-powered bus ties between distribution substations serve as an efficient means to utilize more effectively and fully the existing power delivery infrastructure while simultaneously increasing reliability.
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    Superconductor cables, only recently available for utility applications, uniquely solve these issues. A single distribution voltage superconductor cable can carry amounts of power normally associated with transmission voltage levels, therefore eliminating the need for multiple cables and greatly simplifying placement issues. Superconductor cables also have a unique dual-personality; under normal conditions they conduct power very efficiently, but during faults they actually limit the amount of current that can flow through them. This eliminates the risk of substation equipment damage from excessively high fault currents when paralleling substations. The installation of superconductor cable-powered bus ties between distribution substations serve as an efficient means to utilize more effectively and fully the existing power delivery infrastructure while simultaneously increasing reliability.
Colin Bennett

Low voltage protection for electric vehicle charging units - 1 views

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    "About EV Charging Stations The power of electric vehicle chargers is expressed in kilowatts (kW) - the higher the kW the faster the vehicle gets charged. Electrical vehicle are fed through EV chargers, in AC or DC current. Straight from the grid, AC charging stations are less expensive as they do not require inverters and provide current directly to the on-board vehicle charger. DC charging stations supply current to the vehicle battery and usually provide less time to charge."
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British Tidal Power System Connected to Grid - 0 views

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    The world's first commercial-scale tidal power turbine has delivered electricity into the British grid for the first time in preparation for full-scale operation, Marine Current Turbines announced yesterday. "SeaGen is the world's first commercial-scale tidal stream generating system by a large margin. It is more than four times as powerful as the world's second most powerful tidal current system, which is our own 300kW SeaFlow, installed off Lynmouth on the north Devon coast more than five years ago." Secretary of State for Energy, John Hutton said: "This kind of world first technology and innovation is key to helping the UK reduce its dependency on fossil fuels and secure its future energy supplies" Marine Current Turbines' next project, announced in February 2008, is a joint initiative with npower renewables to take forward a 10.5MW project using several SeaGen devices off the coast of Anglesey, north Wales. It is hoped the tidal farm will be commissioned in 2011 or 2012. The company is also investigating the potential for tidal energy schemes in other parts of the UK, and in North America.
Colin Bennett

World Direct Current Distribution Networks Will Surpass 2.3 Gigawatts (up from 196 MW) ... - 0 views

  • The electricity loads being served by today’s alternating current (AC) power grids are increasingly natively direct current (DC), at the end-use level.  In fact, according to some estimates, approximately 80 percent of the power loads in commercial and residential structures are now DC.  Along with the broad political and policy support for inverter-based native DC power sources, this is leading many industry players to conclude that it makes inherent sense to reduce DC-AC-DC conversion losses and integrate DC distribution networks into the power supply infrastructure.  According to a new report from Navigant Research, the total worldwide capacity of DC distribution networks will surpass 2.3 gigawatts (GW) by 2025, up from just 196 megawatts (MW) in 2013.
John Tomlinson

Norddeutsche to expand copper scrap recycling by 2011 - 0 views

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    June 2008\nNA Copper Mail
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    Norddeutsche Affinerie AG (NA) said it is expecting at least EUR40 million of synergies each year from the takeover of Cumerio which was completed in March this year. The company said that it will benefit from the transfer of best practice between the two companies while cost savings mainly come from logistics and process optimization. NA also plans to increase production at its Cumerio smelters. The company expects further acquisition opportunities in Europe and in other parts of the world, including Asia. NA plans to expand its operations in southeastern Europe and the Black Sea region to capitalize on its strong economic growth before looking for growth opportunities outside Europe. In Bulgaria, the company currently expands copper cathode production capacity of its Pirdop smelter to 180,000 tonnes per year.
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    Norddeutsche Affinerie is to invest €62.5M to increase by 60% its copper scrap recycling capacity in Lünen, Germany by 2011. The investment will double the firm's capacity to process complex copper-bearing scrap such as shreddings, powders and electrical scrap to 140,000t/y, bringing total scrap recycling capacity up to 350,000t/y from 220,000t/y currently. The scrap will be processed into copper cathode. The investment will see the installation of a second smelting furnace, and a waste gas purification plant in Lünen. Norddeutsche's current secondary smelter in Lünen uses a range of scrap, whilst its Hamburg plant uses copper concentrate and a small percentage of high-grade scrap. Electronic scrap availability has increased in Europe as end-of-life regulations have been introduced for its disposal.
Matthew Wonnacott

Luvata metals sales VP: Rising premiums not logical in the current market - 0 views

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    In an interview during the annual CESCO week, Luvata's VP of metals sales Ian Scarlett said that the current warehousing activities are causing distortions to the LME's function as a market of last resort. The VP said he would like to see premiums reflect current market conditions and that some market players could distort the system, adding that the "copper value chain is broken." Mr Scarlett said that it is "not logical" for premiums to be rising during this current period of an increasing market surplus.
Colin Bennett

European Power Cable Installation In Offshore Wind - 0 views

  • 1. Industry outlookThe report's baseline deployment forecast, shows Europe achieving between 26 - 27GW of installed capacity by 2020, of which around 23GW is new installations.Such deployment would:- Occur mainly in the UK and Germany.- Require around 3,500 turbines plus associated infrastructure.- Cost upwards of £75 billion (€86 billion) based on current industry practices.2. Power cable demandGrowth in resulting cable installations will be significant, with an estimated 6,000km of export cable, 2,000km of EU inter-connector cable and 6,500km of array cable installations by 2020.The report's findings show:- In terms of total cable installations, the report predicts that demand will more than double over the period to 2020, with growth of between 2.5 and 3.0 times that of 2011 occurring in both export and array installations.- A near-doubling of export and inter-connector installations by 2016. Thereafter, growth is limited as HVDC use increases and general industry growth slows.- A 250% rise in array cable installations from 350km in 2011 to 900km by 2020.3. Export cable supply vs. demandThe authors estimate that annual export cable installation supply currently stands at around 600 - 650km (vs. 500km 2011 demand). Identified capacity additions are limited. Our analysis shows that export cable installation capacity needs to increase by around 75% within 2 - 3 years if demand is to be met.
Colin Bennett

Location of Current Transformers in HV Substations - 0 views

  • Current transformers are used for protection, instrumentation, metering and control. It is only the first function that has any bearing on the location of the current transformer.
Colin Bennett

Coiled and ready to strike - Wireless charging - 0 views

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    "For remote charging to take off metaphorically as well as literally, though, devices employing it need to be interoperable. That means establishing industry standards. Unfortunately, in a competition reminiscent of that in the 1890s between alternating current (Tesla's preference) and direct current (promoted by Thomas Edison), three main consumer standards have emerged."
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Eskom likely to release new connections policy next week - 0 views

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    Industrial, mining and property investors were still in a state of confusion over power utility Eskom's approach to new electricity connections, but the corporation promised on Tuesday that the issue would be clarified with the imminent release of a comprehensive policy, possibly by as early as next week. CEO Jacob Maroga - currently in Europe on a road show to expose potential investors to its R150-billion capital-raising plan - said last week that the utility had not yet determined just how much power could be allocated to new projects. However, he indicated that a needs analysis was under way in a bid to align its stretched supply profile to the new demand. Maroga also stressed that supply security could be markedly improved and space created for new connections if greater savings were achieved. In fact, he displayed a graph showing that Eskom's reserve margin, which was currently running at a paltry 6%, could rise to well above 10% by 2009 should its savings targets be met. "If we follow the 10% savings path, there will be space for new connections. But we need information from potential customers, which will tell us what is, in fact, possible," he said.
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South Africa: Engineering,construction industry grows despite global market volatility - 0 views

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    The current growth in the local and international engineering, civils and construction markets is expected to continue despite the current volatility experi- enced in world economic markets, reports the South African Association of Consulting Engineers (Saace). Saace CEO Graham Pirie says that even though the local infrastructure roll-out programme and the infrastructure investments from emerging markets such as China were initiated before the period of global market volatility, infrastructure builds cannot be halted as they are vital to the economic growth of countries. "Government's commitment of R500-bil-lion, in addition to the money invested in the 2010 FIFA World Cup stadiums, to be spent over three years, means that 2010 is a small component of a larger investment that government is encouraging," says Pirie. He comments that the infrastructure roll-out programme is necessary, given the 20-year infrastructure investment backlog that South Africa needs to resolve. Pirie says that events hosted in the country since 1994 have encouraged infrastructure reinvestment. "Prior to 1994, South Africa didn't host sporting or political events that would draw an influx of tourists into the country, so the need for infrastructure reinvestment was minimal. "From 1994, with the 1995 rugby World Cup looming, government got serious about resolving this. Certain sporting events, such as the 1995 rugby World Cup, the 2003 cricket World Cup and the 2010 soccer World Cup, focus the right amount of attention on infras- tructure reinvestment at the right time," says Pirie
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US Renewable Energy Tax Credits Could Be Voted On This Week - 0 views

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    A vote could come as early as this week in the U.S. Senate on a bill introduced by Senate Tax Committee Chairman Max Baucus (D-MT) and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) containing a one-year renewable energy production tax credit (PTC) extension and a small wind turbine investment tax credit. The Senate bill, S. 3335, contains a one-year PTC extension at its current value. After December 31, 2009, any further extension would include the "presumption" of a cost cap, which would, through a complex formula, put a ceiling on the value of the credits of no greater than 35% of project value. The small wind ITC has a cap of US $4,000 per system.The 10-year cost for the PTC, including all technologies to which it applies, is projected to be approximately US $7 billion, while the ITC, which includes solar, would cost approximately US $907 million over 10 years. The bill also includes provisions to extend through 2014 the tax credits for solar energy, fuel cell and microturbine property, as well as the residential energy efficient property tax credit. Marine renewable energies could also benefit from the bill as credits to build wave, tidal, current and ocean thermal energy conversion systems of at least 150 kilowatts (kW) are extended through the end of 2011.
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Coal Carbon-Capture Projects - 0 views

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    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announced that it will provide $36 million for 15 projects aimed at furthering the development of new and cost-effective technologies for the capture of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the existing fleet of coal-fired power plants. \n\n"Currently, the existing U.S. coal fleet accounts for over half of all electricity generated in this country," U.S. Secretary of Energy Samuel W. Bodman said. "The projects announced today will combat climate change and help meet current and future energy needs by curbing CO2 emissions from existing coal-fired plants." \n\n
Colin Bennett

Aluminium prices stabilized at a low level-China Mining - 0 views

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    Aluminium prices at LME and SHFE have stopped slumping at a low level since mid October, after major aluminium enterprises reduced production on the market downturn. Under the current economic recession and financial crisis, outputcut is not big enough to reverse the situation of surplus supply, said market analysts here, adding that it is hard to improve aluminium price in a short period. Currently, the whole aluminium industry is losing money
Colin Bennett

Underwater Wind Turbines? bioWAVE System Designed to Create Energy from Ocean Currents ... - 0 views

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    Picture a kelp bed on the ocean floor swaying in the current. Done? Now picture an underwater field of bioWave turbines (pictured to your left) doing the same
Jon Barnes

Mueller Industries posts weaker Q2 earnings - 0 views

shared by Jon Barnes on 22 May 08 - Cached
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    US speciality brass mill Ansonia Copper and Brass Inc. has announced that it will lay off 85 of the 102 employees at its Liberty Street, Ansonia, factory in Connecticut. The plant manufactures copper alloy rod and wires. Company President Raymond McGee said "it's a very, very difficult situation". He blamed the redundancies, on top of 76 employees laid off in April 2007, on the company's struggle with escalating costs. Since 2002 electricity costs have soared 239%, natural gas 200%, fuel oil 125%, and copper and nickel 500% apiece. Ansonia's other facility in Waterbury, CT, which manufacturers copper alloy tube is unaffected by the announcement.
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    Tough times in the US brass mill industry
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    Dowa Metanix announces capacity increase Company announces new pickling line and facility renewal Dowa Metanix, the rolled copper maker of the Dowa Metaltech group announced it will invest around ¥2 billion (US$ 19 million) in a new pickling line and renewal facility during the current fiscal year which began in April 2008. The new pickling line is expected to begin operations early in the fiscal year 2009 and the new line and improved facilities are expected to improve the firm's cost competitiveness. The company then said it plans to expand output capacity by 40% to 1,200 tonnes per month by 2010 as it tries to improve productivity to increase its supply for connector pins and semi conductor lead frames.
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    In the past few days world leading cablemaker Nexans has announced one acquisition, one new joint venture and one asset disposal. On the 30th May, Nexans acquired Intercond a leading Italian manufacturer of special cables for industrial equipment and subsea applications. The company had sales of €90m and employs 150. "This [€90m] acquisition fits totally in the Group's strategy by increasing the proportion of its business in high value-added special cables", said Gerard Hauser, Chairman and CEO of Nexans. On the 2nd June, Nexans released a press report confirming that it has formed a joint venture to create a wire and cable plant in Qatar, the country's first manufacturing facility. Qatar International Cable Company (QICC) is owned 29% by Nexans with the balance being owned by Special Projects Company and Al Neama Industrial Co. The new plant in the industrial city of Mesaleed, 40km from Doha, and will employ 210 people. By the end of 2009 it will begin manufacturing low and medium voltage cables for buildings and energy infrastructure as well as special cables for the oil and gas industry. This JV will generate sales of $150m per year by 2010 at current copper prices. Finally, Nexans confirmed that it has completed the pre-announced sale of its copper telecom cable plant at Santander in Spain to the British company B3 Cable Solutions for €17m. These three actions continue to refocus the group's strategy on priority market segments.
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    Hot on the heels of the news that Nexans was to build a joint venture in Qatar to construct the country's first wire and cable factory , comes today's news that El Sewedy Cables of Egypt is also to build a $150m power cable plant in Qatar. The 30,000tpy capacity plant will start operating at the end of 2009 or early 2010 and will mostly sell to the domestic market. El Sewedy will own 50% of the company and Qataru based Aamal Holding will hold the remainder. El Sewedy is currently building new cable factories in Algeria and Saudi Arabia, with both expected to start later this year.
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    Turkish copper semis producer Sarkuysan expects its output of copper products (wirerod, wire, tube and billet) to rise from 185,000 tonnes in 2007 to around 200,000 tonnes in 2008. According to the General Manager Hayrettin Cayci, "The market is forcing us to increase production as demand, particularly in Turkey, is very healthy", adding that demand came mainly from a Turkish property construction boom. "There's a big boom in demand for energy cables. Plus developed European countries have pulled away from cable production and they're mainly supplying from countries like Turkey". However, high copper prices have eroded profit margins so the company is focussing on more higher value products. He expected total Turkish copper demand (refined and scrap) to rise above 500,000 tonnes this year, from 450,000 tonnes now, and by 2010 he expected demand would reach 600,000 tonnes. Refined copper consumption is currently around 300,000 tonnes.
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    The Exsym Corporation, the joint venture between SWCC Showa Holdings and Mitsubishi Cable Industries, has announced plans to expand its exports of ultra high voltage cables to the Middle East and South East Asia. In order to meet this increase in demand, a horizontal sheathing line has been transferred to the company's Aichi plant in Japan. This will bring the number of sheathing lines for ultra high voltage cables at the plant to three, once the transferred line begins commercial operation over the summer. Exsym also plans to renew one of the two conductor stranding lines at the Aichi plant with the new line expected to begin commercial operation in November 2008. With these new lines as well as an increased number of construction staff, copper cable capacity at the plant is expected to grow by around 200 tonnes per month to 1,200 tonnes per month. In the fiscal year 2007, Exsym posted revenue of ¥41 billion ($0.39 billion) with an operating profit of almost ¥2 billion ($0.02 billion). Exports of ultra high voltage cables to the Middle East and South East Asia accounted for around 40% of the total revenue. The company expects the increase in export capacity to increase revenue to ¥43 billion ($0.41 billion) per year by the end of the fiscal year 2010.
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    Mitsubishi Shindoh is to invest Yen6-7 billion to expand production of copper strips at its Sambo plant in Osaka, Japan. This will increase capacity from 3,200 tonnes per month (tpm) to 4,200tpm by March 2010. In addition, the company will transfer 800tpm of copper strip production from its plant in Wakamatsu, Fukushima, Japan, bringing total production capacity to 5,000tpm. Mitsubishi Shindoh will also spend Yen6 billion to improve its copper alloy strip capabilities at its Wakamatsu plant. Productive capacity will remain at 6,500tpm, but with an increased ratio of high quality products. As a result, total company capacity will grow by 40% to 11,500tpm. Mitsubishi Shindoh is a copper and copper alloy fabricator within the Mitsubishi Materials Group. Japan mills have recently seen a strong growth in orders from the semiconductor, leadframe, connector and automotive industries, and clearly expect this to continue.
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    Hindalco Industries and Sterlite Industries - the two privately owned Indian copper smelter/refinery/rod producers - are considering changing their domestic pricing mechanism for copper due to the dramatic rise in oil prices. At present, a uniform pricing system for customers all over the country is in place, however, the companies are mulling a change to ex-works pricing. This would mean that customers would be charged a different price depending on their delivery destination from the smelter. To balance the recent hike in fuel prices, they had recently started levying a Rs2/kg freight charge across the country irrespective of distance. Diesel is used in firing the furnaces while furnace oil is used in running them. The total fuel cost is estimated at 10-12% of the price of copper, with 1% of this being the transportation cost. The fuel price hike has not affected domestic copper demand as yet, but a prolonged period of this sentiment may hit many developing infrastructure projects badly.
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    Jiangxi Copper said it expects Chinese refined copper consumption to grow at 8-10% this year driven by investment in the power industry. Power generation accounts for between 50-60% of all copper used in China. Damage to power generation capacity caused by this year's earthquake in Sichuan province will require a major rebuilding program which will also stimulate copper consumption. Chinese refined copper imports fell by 23% year on year between January and April, however, this decline was at least partly explained by a 23% expansion in Chinese refined copper production during the period. Wu Yuneng, General Manager of JCC Southern Copper said, "We need more concentrate and scrap rather than refined copper".
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    Four major Japanese copper tube producers plan to reduce production by 4% year-on-year to 84,220 tonnes in total during the first half of the fiscal year 2008 (April 07-March 08). It is reported that demand for copper tubes has fallen because of the inactive construction industry as well as high copper prices. The construction industry saw a major slowdown last year after the introduction of new building regulations. All four producers expected this weak trend to continue. Sumitomo Light Metal is the only producer who plans to increase its output estimate, but only by 1% year-on-year. Kobelco & Materials Copper Tube says that it would decrease normal tube output for export to adjust the inventory level at its Malaysian operation. Furukawa Electric and Hitachi Cable said they would need to focus more on their commercial tube businesses. It is believed that the tube market has also been hit by substitution from aluminium.
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    As of the 30th May, the Optical Cable Corporation acquired Superior Modular Products Incorporated (known in business as SMP Data Communications) in a deal worth $11.5 million. SMP Data Communications is now a wholly owned subsidiary of the Optical Cable Corporation. The President and CEO of Optical Cable, Neil Wilkin, said the acquisition would enable the company to expand its product offerings with more complete cabling and connectivity solutions, including fibre optic and copper connectivity. SMP Data Communications manufactures more than 2,000 products including cutting edge Category 6a connectivity solutions which offer a 10 Gig throughput.
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    A subsidiary of Japanese company Sumitomo Electric Industry Group, Sumitomo Electric Wintec Inc, has recently developed a new type of winding wire. The HGZ is a scratch-resistant winding wire for varnish impregnation for compressor motor. The company has started selling this new type of winding wire. This new development improves the adhesive tendency of varnish which solves the problem of varnish impregnation in fixing coil from traditional scratch-resistant winding wire. It also improves the energy efficiency of motor as it forms coil with higher density. Sumitomo Electric Wintec specialises in copper-based magnet wire and it serves mainly the manufacturers of air conditioners, automobiles, refrigeration equipment and televisions.
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    Luvata's ECO-Heatcraft division has launched a new technology for its air conditioning and refrigeration systems based upon using carbon dioxide as a refrigerant. The company believes that, as well as offering zero ozone depletion and less effect on global warming, the use of carbon dioxide can also allow more efficient operation of the system than traditional refrigerants. Luvata claims that, "The higher volumetric efficiency of carbon dioxide (known as R744) means that the cross sectional area of pipes used in heat transfer equipment can be reduced. As a result, equipment has the potential to be smaller, lighter, more efficient and better for the environment". The development of smaller diameter pipes with reduced wall thicknesses would tend to favour existing inner grooved copper tube based designs rather than emerging aluminium based technologies.
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    Further evidence of the impact of the North American economic slowdown on copper demand has recently been published by the ABMS and government statistical bodies. North American copper wirerod production plummeted 9.6% year-on-year to 174,000 tonnes in April. Output had been on a downward trend but the magnitude of the deterioration in April has still come as something of a surprise. A year-on-year increase of 2.0% in North American output January had been followed a 1.0% fall in February and a 2.7% drop in March. In April Canadian output was flat year-on-year due to improving export sales to the US, while US production fell 9.8% year-on-year and Mexican shipments slumped by 17.5%. On a year-to-date basis North American wirerod production was 2.9% lower in the four months to April 2008. Weakening demand from the automotive industry, coupled with a resurgance in copper prices and the return of Russian wirerod imports has clearly led to a deteriorating market situation for domestic mills.
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    Mueller Industries second quarter results highlight the tough times that the US brass mill industry is facing, but that companies can still operate profitably in a challenging market environment. The company's plumbing and refrigeration segment saw sales fall 11% to US$404m, while its operating profits dropped 32% to US$35m. The company blamed lower shipment volumes and lower spreads for the weaker performance. Sales at the company's OEM division, which includes its brass rod activities, rose 10% year-on-year to US$354m, while its operating profits rose 5% to US$19m. The improvement here is due to acquisition of Extruded Metals. Commenting on the results Harvey Karp, Chairman of Mueller Industries said "Mueller's earnings for the first half of 2008 were achieved despite the continuing decline in the housing industry, the sub-prime mortgage meltdown, the turbulence in the financial markets, rising metal costs, sky-high energy prices and a slowing national economy. Considering these adverse circumstances, we are pleased with the results."
Wade Ren

Demographic projections and trade implications - 0 views

  •   To summarize the raw numbers, China’s population is expected to grow from 1.32 billion today to 1.46 billion in 2030, after which it will decline slowly, to around 1.42 billion in 2050.  Its working population is currently around 840 million.  This component of the population will rise in the next ten years to around 910 million and then will decline quite rapidly to around 790 million by 2050.
  • The graph below shows the composition of China’s population by age group.  Needless to say the most dramatic change is the explosive growth of the over-65 population, followed by the decline in the share of the young.  Another way of understanding this is to note that China’s median age basically climbs over this period from 24 to 45 (which, by the way, may have favorable consequence for long-term political stability).
  • I don’t have the figures yet from before 1990, but looking at other sources I would guess that China’s working population grew by about 2% or more annually during the 1970s and 1980s.  In the 1990s, as the table indicates, the growth rate of the working population slowed to 1.72%, declining further in the current decade to around 1.42% on average.  The number of working Chinese keeps growing until around the middle of the next decade, and then begins to decline by about half a percent a year.
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  • All this has important implications both for nominal growth rates and per capita growth rates in the next few decades.  For one thing, a country’s GDP growth rate can be expressed as a factor of the growth rate of its working population and the growth rate of average productivity per worker.  As the growth rate of the working population swings from positive to negative – by a little more than 2%, depending on what periods you compare – this will have a commensurate impact on Chinese GDP growth rates, i.e. all other things being equal (which of course they are not).  China’s equilibrium growth rate should be about 2% lower than the equilibrium growth rate of the past two or three decades.
  •  This implies that over the last three decades China has had a demographic bias towards trade surpluses (working population, a proxy for production, grew faster than total population, a proxy for consumption), but over the next three decades it is likely to have a demographic bias towards trade deficits.  
  • Three years ago I argued in a Wall Street Journal OpEd piece that because of the aging and declining populations of Europe and Japan (and to a lesser extent China and Russia), compared to the growing population and relatively stable age distribution in the US, it was not unreasonable for the former countries to run large current account surpluses with the US since they would need the accumulated claims against the US to pay for the current account deficits they would need to run to manage their demographic adjustments.  This is why I have never been terribly worried about the sustainability of the US trade deficit.  In the next decade it is likely that demographic changes will create pressures to reverse those US trade deficits.
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