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A new era for commodities Cheap resources underpinned economic growth for much of the 20th century. The 21st will be different. NOVEMBER 2011 * Richard Dobbs, Jeremy Oppenheim, and Fraser Thompson Source: McKinsey Global Institute, Sustainability & Resource Productivity Practice In This Article Exhibit: In little more than a decade, soaring commodity prices have erased a century of steady declines. About the authors Comments (2) Has the global economy entered an era of persistently high, volatile commodity prices? Our research shows that during the past eight years alone, they have undone the decline of the previous century, rising to levels not seen since the early 1900s (exhibit). In addition, volatility is now greater than at any time since the oil-shocked 1970s because commodity prices increasingly move in lockstep. Our analysis suggests that they will remain high and volatile for at least the next 20 years if current trends hold-barring a major macroeconomic shock-as global resource markets oscillate in response to surging global demand and inelastic supplies. Back to top Demand for energy, food, metals, and water should rise inexorably as three billion new middle-class consumers emerge in the next two decades.1 The global car fleet, for example, is expected almost to double, to 1.7 billion, by 2030. In India, we expect calorie intake per person to rise by 20 percent during that period, while per capita meat consumption in China could increase by 60 percent, to 80 kilograms (176 pounds) a year. Demand for urban infrastructure also will soar. China, for example, could annually add floor space totaling 2.5 times the entire residential and commercial square footage of the city of Chicago, while India could add floor space equal to another Chicago every year. Such dramatic growth in demand for commodities actually isn't unusual. Similar factors were at play throughout the 20th century as the planet's population tripled and demand for various resource

Wieland-Werke AG, the German fabricator of brass mill products, reported sales of 475,000t, down by 0.4% y-o-y in financial year 2010/2011. Turnover increased by 24% y-o-y to reach €3,287M and profits also rose to €45M in 2010/2011 after a loss of €6M in the previous year. The rise in turnover was mainly attributed to rising metals prices, while the company said that the increase in profits was caused by a product mix composed of a larger amount of value-added products. Wieland noted strong demand in the first six months of the period, which was offset by the Euro debt-crisis as a driver of significantly weaker demand in Europe during the latter half of the fiscal year. In addition, the company saw a fall in demand in Asia from Spring 2011 and continued very low demand in North America. End-use consumer demand was weak and impacted the electronics and electrical engineering sectors as well as vehicle production. Mechanical engineering was considered to be a bright spot in fiscal year 2010/2011.

Wieland-Werke AG, the German fabricator of brass mill products, stated that demand in 2012 began weakly. After January, orders rose only slightly, but demand from important markets in Asia and Europe declined, principally attributed to cautious buying as fears remained over the impact of the course of the euro debt crisis in 2012. In addition, the company is experiencing reduced demand from the electronics industry in Asia following the closure of several plants affected by the tsunami in Japan and flooding in Thailand. Wieland has also not seen any growth support from North America and is uncertain about the global outlook for demand in 2012 due to the unpredictability of the euro debt crisis.

US speciality brass mill Ansonia Copper and Brass Inc. has announced that it will lay off 85 of the 102 employees at its Liberty Street, Ansonia, factory in Connecticut. The plant manufactures copper alloy rod and wires. Company President Raymond McGee said "it's a very, very difficult situation". He blamed the redundancies, on top of 76 employees laid off in April 2007, on the company's struggle with escalating costs. Since 2002 electricity costs have soared 239%, natural gas 200%, fuel oil 125%, and copper and nickel 500% apiece. Ansonia's other facility in Waterbury, CT, which manufacturers copper alloy tube is unaffected by the announcement.

Further evidence of the impact of the North American economic slowdown on copper demand has recently been published by the ABMS and government statistical bodies. North American copper wirerod production plummeted 9.6% year-on-year to 174,000 tonnes in April. Output had been on a downward trend but the magnitude of the deterioration in April has still come as something of a surprise. A year-on-year increase of 2.0% in North American output January had been followed a 1.0% fall in February and a 2.7% drop in March. In April Canadian output was flat year-on-year due to improving export sales to the US, while US production fell 9.8% year-on-year and Mexican shipments slumped by 17.5%. On a year-to-date basis North American wirerod production was 2.9% lower in the four months to April 2008. Weakening demand from the automotive industry, coupled with a resurgance in copper prices and the return of Russian wirerod imports has clearly led to a deteriorating market situation for domestic mills.

Mueller Industries second quarter results highlight the tough times that the US brass mill industry is facing, but that companies can still operate profitably in a challenging market environment. The company's plumbing and refrigeration segment saw sales fall 11% to US$404m, while its operating profits dropped 32% to US$35m. The company blamed lower shipment volumes and lower spreads for the weaker performance. Sales at the company's OEM division, which includes its brass rod activities, rose 10% year-on-year to US$354m, while its operating profits rose 5% to US$19m. The improvement here is due to acquisition of Extruded Metals. Commenting on the results Harvey Karp, Chairman of Mueller Industries said "Mueller's earnings for the first half of 2008 were achieved despite the continuing decline in the housing industry, the sub-prime mortgage meltdown, the turbulence in the financial markets, rising metal costs, sky-high energy prices and a slowing national economy. Considering these adverse circumstances, we are pleased with the results."

Aurubis AG, the Germany-headquartered refined copper cathode and copper products fabricator, reported a weak performance in sales of copper products in the first quarter of this year. In Q1, the outputs of wirerod; pre-rolled strip; continuous cast shapes; rolled products and speciality wire reached 179,000t, 41,000t, 47,000t and 60,000t, down by 17% y-o-y, down by 15% y-o-y, up by 2% y-o-y and up by 329% y-o-y, respectively. Generally, the seasonal upswing in Q2 was weaker than expected, however, there was a mixture of performances in the sectors within each market, as some wirerod market sectors ordered strongly but European semi-fabricators and customers of strip and speciality wire continued to order shrinking quantities at late notice.

Aurubis reported a growth outlook for its copper products business unit. The company said that the performance of copper wirerod depends upon the progress of power grid expansion projects in Europe. The automotive sector is expected to continue to support growing wirerod sales for the next few months, however the enamelled wire industry is expected to remain weak attributed to poor demand in southern Europe. North American demand is anticipated to support growth in shipments of copper shapes as well as the company's market for flat copper products. In this regard, the US electronics and electrical industry, engine cooling and distribution segments are expected to continue improving. Stagnant European and Asian demand for flat copper products will partially undermine growth in North America. The company added that it does not anticipate the Asian copper products market to recover until the end of Summer 2012, at which time, demand in the US is expected to be good and demand from European-based operations will be recovering.

Despite a slowdown in the global economy and a softening in demand for aluminium rolled products in some regions, JSE-listed aluminium reroller Hulamin expected global demand to increase this year. CEO Alan Fourie on Tuesday commented that the company, which exported about 70% of its products, had seen some softening in demand for aluminium rolled products in some regions, but added that demand for these products was expected to grow by between 5% and 7% this year. "Obviously the slowdown of the [global] economy puts pressure on margins, it is an economic consequence, but we are still selling into a growing international market," he said. Locally, however, the softening economic climate was expected to impact on sales volumes for the second half of the year. However, Hulamin expected these high-value products to continue growing as a percentage of its sales in the next few years. Fourie noted that five years ago, these products equated to just over 50% of its sales volumes, while their contribution was just below 60% in 2007. They now comprised about 64% of its total sales volumes. Meanwhile, Hulamin stated that its costs had increased by 16%, influenced by a 58% increase in energy costs, increasing alloying costs caused by magnesium prices rising from $2 000/t to $4 500/t, and increases in other metals. Excluding the cost of increasing energy and metals prices, the company's costs had increased by 6%. Fourie noted that while the rising aluminium costs did not affect its profitability, it did have an effect on its working capital. "We hold aluminium in our working capital. So when the aluminium price increases, the cash tied up in working capital increases and we have seen a significant increase in working capital during this period, because the rand price of aluminium has increased by close to 40% in the last six months," he explained. Further, Fourie did not expect the increasing electricity prices to have too great an impact on its futu

"Demand for copper from auto sector is ok, he said. "[Demand from] energy projects which have big consumption [of copper wire rod] have gone down, but there is no indication that it shall continue to fall," he said during the 10th Asia copper conference in Shanghai. On the contrary, there are a lot of European energy projects in the pipeline, while China is also witnessing good demand"

According to a statement made by JP Morgan Securities, copper demand in China may experience strong growth in Q4. This argument is based on the fact that the large amount of accumulated copper inventories in China will be processed. As a result, copper stockpiles will run down. The forecast projected an annual growth in Chinese copper demand of 7-8% for 2009, backed by robust demand in power infrastructure. Chinese copper imports in April reached 400,000t, an increase of 7% compared with March.

Aurubis said that demand for its products bottomed in April and showed some recovery signs in May. As a result of weakening demand in Q1, the company cut copper wirerod output by 25% to 168,000t. The company planned to cut working hours in its copper wirerod plant in Hamburg but the measure was not implemented as demand strengthened. Luvata reported that its copper semis sales contracted on average by 25% y-o-y in Q1. The worst hit end-use sectors were the automotive and construction industries, which plunged by 40% y-o-y in Q1. In response to the economic crisis, the company has cut production in the US, Europe and China. Both Aurubis and Luvata said that as their customers have kept stocks to a minimum the market now experiences stabilisation. Luvata highlighted that its recent demand increase may be only the result of restocking. Also, extended summer holidays will impact this rebound.

""There have been sharp technological advances in the auto sector, which requires highly functional copper," Keiichi Kobayashi, corporate senior vp, automotive and electronics material field, copper and high performance material products division, told Metal Bulletin sister title Copper Price Briefing. The growth in the auto market increases demand for the company's highly functional copper products, he said, adding that demand from the electronic devices markets such as mobile phones was good but can fluctuate a lot. The company's product share is comprised of 40% automotive, 40% electronics and 20% infrastructure."

Amid the global economic crisis, one sector that has not contracted but has actually expanded is the utilities infrastructure in the Middle East. The government of Dubai announced in January that it will spend AED 37.7 billion (US$10.3 billion) as part of its 2009 budget. A considerable part will be spent on infrastructure projects and power networks will be a significant portion of this plan. According to data provided by Dow Wire and Cable, the regional demand for medium and high voltage cables amounts to 270,000 km and this is expected to rise in the next 2-3 years. While there is still growing demand for medium and high voltage cables, there is currently shrinking demand for smaller products such as building wire.

Chinese copper tube demand is robust in Q3, primarily due to 'unexpectedly good' sales on air-conditioners and many distributors are running out of stock, according to local manufacturers. There are two main reasons for the high demand. Firstly the weather is hotter than usual this year with temperatures rising to 38 degree Celsius in many parts of China. Secondly, the demand for air-conditioners is being boosted by the government's home appliance subsidy scheme as well as local retailers' discounts on air-conditioner sales. This is going to have a positive effect on copper consumption as copper tube used in air-conditioners is mainly refined copper.

Luvata, the UK-based manufacturer of copper semis, expects demand for its products in the US and China to expand by 5% in 2013, according to Chief Executive John Peter Leesi. In an interview with Bloomberg, the Chief Executive said that residential and commercial construction is very important to Luvata and that an improvement in these sectors in the US was boosting demand. Luvata also expects a pickup in demand for copper tube as the air conditioner sector in China expands in 2013, after a poor year in 2012. On Europe, Luvata expects "flat-to-small growth" in demand in 2013.

"Donald Sadoway: The missing link to renewable energy Tweet this talk! (we'll add the headline and the URL) Post to: Share on Twitter Email This Favorite Download inShare Share on StumbleUpon Share on Reddit Share on Facebook TED Conversations Got an idea, question, or debate inspired by this talk? Start a TED Conversation, or join one of these: Green Home Energy=Hydrogen Generators-alternative sources Started by Kathleen Gilligan-Smith 1 Comment What is the real missing link in renewable energy? Started by Enrico Petrucco 8 Comments Comment on this Talk 60 total comments Sign in to add comments or Join (It's free and fast!) Sort By: smily raichel 0 Reply Less than 5 minutes ago: Nice smily raichel 0 Reply Less than 5 minutes ago: Good David Mackey 0 Reply 3 hours ago: Superb invention, but I would suggest one more standard mantra that they should move on from and that is the idea of power being supplied by a centralised grid. This technology seems to me to be much more beneficial on a local scale, what if every home had its own battery, then home power generation becomes economically more viable for everyone. If you could show that a system like this could pay for itself in say 5 years then every home would want one. Plus for this to be implemented on a large scale requires massive investment that could be decades away. Share the technology and lets get it in homes by next year. Great ted talk. Jon Senior 0 Reply 1 hour ago: I agree 100%. Localised energy production would also make energy consumers more conscious of their consumption and encourage efforts to reduce it. We can invent and invent all we want, but the fast solution to allowing renewable energies to take centre stage is to reduce the base energy draw. With lower baseline consumption, smaller "always on" generators are required to keep the grid operational. Town and house-l

""On a fundamental basis, at the moment, the market is still extremely well supplied with material," Matthew Wonnacott, a senior consultant at CRU Group in London, said in a telephone interview. "There's really no reason why anybody should need to withdraw material from an exchange for consumption. Demand in the market is just disappointing this year. It's not just China, in general demand is poor.""

"Iran's demand for refined copper is small, amounting to just 155kt in 2014. Any easing of trade sanctions is likely to result in a healthy boost to domestic copper demand as the country catches up after its years of isolation. There is also the possible added bonus of increased exports to its neighbours which have wirerod capacity constraints. However, the overall effect on global refined copper demand growth will be limited. "

Although volatility in most assets is sharply lower than it was in November, oil price volatility has continued to climb. This rise in volatility, and resulting near $30-a-barrel oil price, is reflecting the same imbalances in the energy market that $147 oil did last summer: namely inadequate investment in basic infrastructure to produce, deliver, store and distribute energy. Last summer, attention focused on shortages in production capacity. However, present underlying shortages in storage and transportation are creating massive price distortions across the energy complex. Storage and transportation capacity provides the system with a buffer to supply-and-demand shocks by allowing it to run surpluses and deficits that smooth the normal cyclical swings in prices. As global storage capacity has failed to keep pace with growth in global demand over the past three decades, this buffer has shrunk relative to the size of the market, resulting in chronically higher than normal price volatility. Once infrastructure begins to constrain the ability of the market to run imbalances, prices have to create more of the adjustment process. Electricity markets are an extreme case of this. As power cannot be stored, supply must always equal demand, leaving price as the only mechanism to force the adjustment process. Accordingly, electricity is the most volatile of all assets. Due to inadequate infrastructure investment over the past several decades, oil is looking more like the electricity markets.

General Cable Corporation has announced its sales results for Q4 2008. In volume terms, sales in Q4 2008 contracted by 6.3% y-o-y. In the same period, operating income decreased by 17.8% y-o-y to US$76.4 million. The company attributed the decline in its operating income to weak demand in developed economies and lower capacity utilisation. Sales to Europe and North Africa contracted by 7.8% y-o-y, particularly due to lower demand and pricing for construction products in Spain, and weakening activity across Europe. In North America sales fell by 6.6% y-o-y, as the company experienced reduced demand for high metal content copper telecommunication and low voltage cables.

Luvata, a copper semis fabricator, believes that even though destocking in the copper supply chain is over, a significant rise in demand is not anticipated until mid-2010. The company expects that Asia will be the first region to recover, followed by North America and Europe. As a result of destocking, Luvata has got used to operating at a lower level of stock, and therefore became more efficient in its production procedures. The company intends to keep operating at lower stock levels even in periods of growth. While demand before the summer showed some recovery signs, the company is now waiting for the autumn to see whether the positive trend will continue.