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The road to grid parity for PV power generation will be difficult, needing five or more years to compete with utility power, unsubsidized, on a large scale, noted Mark Thirsk, managing partner at Linx Consulting, at a recent SEMI PV forecast luncheon (Sept. 18) in Santa Clara, CA Most input materials for PV production are in relative oversupply and will not constrain production, Thirsk pointed out - and for this reason manufacturers are conservative about capacity investment. In particular, his PV module production forecast (see Fig. 1, above) shows an overstep in demand in 2008. One reason for suppliers' reluctance to build capacity for entering the silicon supply chain is that it is an inefficient process. "Only about 15% of all the silicon going into the supply chain goes into the wafers, so it's a pretty wasteful and capital intensive process, so there is a lot of reluctance to build capacity," said Thirsk. Despite the efficiency challenges, Thirsk's forecast indicates that an oversupply may occur in 2009 Because >40% of PV grade silicon is lost at the wafering step, Thirsk believes this represents a significant opportunity for the right technology. Additionally, diamond wire is a potential replacement for slurry technology, but this technology is still immature. In the crystalline silicon (c-Si) value chain, Thirsk sees opportunities for optimizing mono-crystalline wafers with metal wrap technology and backside contacts; process optimization and material improvements would improve cell efficiency, and glass, wafer, backsheet, and grid improvements can enable more efficient light capture. Looking ahead, Thirsk told the audience that while thin-film technologies will enjoy strong growth "and may be more attractive to value-add materials and equipment suppliers, thin-film cell production will remain a minority share for the medium term." (see Fig. 3, below) He closed his presentation encouraging the creation of a Moore's Law type of roadmap for the PV

Mining giants BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto should post record half-year profits as they reap the benefits of an industrial commodities boom, and are likely to use the results to bolster their arguments in a $123 billion (66 billion pound) takeover stand-off. Both are also likely to outline big expansions in key profit sectors such as copper and iron ore, where analysts predict higher prices next year on the back of strong demand for imported raw materials from China's industrial sector. Consenus figures based on forecasts by 20 analysts and provided by BHP point to a 12 percent rise in annual net profit to $15.4 billion, suggesting second-half profit will have risen 30 percent to $9.4 billion from $7.2 billion previously. Analysts polled by Reuters Estimates forecast Rio's January-June underlying profit will have risen 40 percent to $5.2 billion. BHP's financial year ends June 30, while Rio follows the calendar year.

IEA's dire warning on green stimulus and renewables Kate Mackenzie, Financial Times The IEA's report for G8 energy ministers, to be presented this Sunday in Rome, has generated a few stories. Some picked up on the oil supply squeeze that awaits the world due to massive cuts in production investment. I wrote yesterday that the IEA forecasts that, for the first time since World War II, world electricity consumption will decline in 2009. IEA chief economist Fatih Birol said he personally thought the electricity forecast was the most striking finding of the report. However he was also keen to highlight concern about green spending in the G20 stimulus packages: The agency will also tell ministers that its calculation of the stimulus spending required from G20 nations on renewable energy was inadequate and should rise by a factor of six if greenhouse gas emissions targets set by the United Nations were to be met... (22 May 2008)

Bank of America-Merrill Lynch is expecting that the world ex-China has potential for copper demand growth too. As a result, it revised up its copper price forecast for 2010 to US$7,125/t. This represents a 1.8% increase compared to its earlier anticipation. Its forecast for the current year is revised up by 5.6% to US$5,137/t.

Toyota Motor Corporation announced on 5th November a sharp increase in H1 2012 revenues of 36.1% y-o-y compared with the same period in 2011. The increase was largely due to base effects associated with last year's Japanese earthquake and tsunami. As part of the announcement, Toyota revised up their annual profit forecasts to JPY1.05T from JPY1.0T (US$13.29B from US$12.66B). However, Toyota revised down overall expected 2012/13 car sales by 50,000 units. This was driven by downward revisions to Asian and European sales forecasts, 50,000 and 40,000 units, to 1.73M and 790,000 units respectively. North America was a bright spot for Toyota, with expectations for full year North American automobile sales revised up by 20,000 units to 2.4M vehicles.

Japan's largest company of building wires and cables, Sumiden Hitachi Cable, which is jointly controlled by Hitachi Cable, Sumitomo Electric Industries and Tatsuta Electric Wire & Cable, says it plans for its sales volume in copper to increase slightly year-on-year for first half of fiscal 2012 beginning in April. The firm forecasts that domestic demand for its three major items, the largest being low voltage XLPE cable, would remain steady y-o-y at around a monthly average volume of 14,500t of copper Sumiden Hitachi Cable estimated that Japanese demand for its three major products increased by 6%y-o-y in H2 2011 to average 15,800t in copper per month. Building wire and cable shipments remained steady for large building projects situated mainly in Tokyo while shipments increased by 20% y-o-y in the Tohoku area as a result of the restorations being undertaken following the earthquake last year. The shipment levels were also boosted by active public facilities construction towards the end of the Japanese major fiscal year in March. Forecasts suggest that in H1 F2012, total demand and shipments would level off as construction projects and restorations following the earthquake would begin to tail off.

"Global demand for insulated cable and wire is forecast to expand 8.3% p.a. between 2014 - 2018. Azerbaijan, China, Lithuania, Turkey, and the United States are considered the highest potential markets in the coming years."

"The group forecasts its 2011 net profit to rise to around 8.4 billion zlotys, nearly double its 2010 earnings, boosted by income from planned sales of KGHM telecom assets Dialog and Polkomtel."

"Carbon Nanotubes (CNTs) have not yet met commercial expectations from a decade ago, and now hot on its heels is graphene. Graphene is considered a hot candidate for applications such as computers, displays, photovoltaics, and flexible electronics. IDTechEx market forecasts indicate that CNT and graphene transistors may be commercially available in volume from 2015 onwards, according to the new report \"Carbon Nanotubes and Graphene for Electronics Applications 2011-2021\". According to IDTechEx, the biggest opportunity for both materials is in printed and potentially printed electronics, where the value of these devices that partly incorporate these materials will reach over $44 billion in 2021."