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ICSG 1 Feb 09 - Based on existing facilities and announced project developments, annual mine production capacity in the period 2009-2013 is expected to grow at an average rate of around 4.3% per year (%/yr) to reach 23.1 Mt in 2013, an increase of around 3.6 Mt (19%) from that in 2009. Of the total increase, copper in concentrate capacity is expected to increase by 2.7Mt (4.3%/yr) to reach 17.9 Mt and solvent extraction-electrowinning (SX-EW) production by 820,000t (4.4%/yr) to reach 5.2 Mt. Most of the new mine projects and expansions are located in Brazil, Chile, Congo, Mongolia, Peru, the United States and Zambia, which together account for around 2.6 Mt (73%) of the projected mine capacity increase during this period. Annual smelter capacity is projected to grow by an average of 2.6%/yr to reach 20.2 Mt in 2013, an increase of 2 Mt (11%) from that in 2009. Asia will be the leading contributor to growth (1.8 Mt), with expansions and new projects expected mostly in China, but also in India, Indonesia and Iran. Africa is the second leading contributor owing to developments in Zambia. North American smelting capacity will fall by 12% (250kt) due to closures of plants in Canada. The ICSG tabulations indicate that world refinery capacity will reach 26.6 Mt in 2013, an increase of 3.2 Mt (13%) from that in 2009. About 2.3 Mt of the expansion is expected to come from electrolytic refineries and 820,000t from electrowinning capacity. Electrolytic refinery capacity growth is projected to average 3.1%/yr, exceeding the projected growth in smelter capacity, and electrowinning capacity growth (at the refinery level) is expected to average 4.3%/yr. About one half (1.5 Mt) of the world refinery capacity increase during this period is expected to come from electrolytic refineries in China; about 25% (830,000 t) from electrolytic capacity increases in India, Indonesia and Iran; and about 20% (600,000 t) from electrowinning capacity increases in Congo, Peru and Zambia.

Xinxing Zhunguan, a Zhejiang-based manufacturer of copper wirerod, plans to increase production at its facility to 165,000t in 2013, up by 10% from 150,000t in 2012. Despite low profitability at Chinese wirerod producers, an official at the company said Xinxing Zhunguan still plans to increase output in 2013 in order to enhance competitiveness. The company said it expects orders to be subdued in the run up to the Chinese Lunar New Year, but then expects a strong rebound after the holiday period. This is consistent with another report on 11th January from Reuters which cited several Chinese copper traders as expecting the period between now and the holiday to be quiet, followed by a strong rebound.

According to an official from Chinalco Kunming Copper Co., the Chinese wirerod manufacturer, the company produced 10,000t of copper wirerod in March, up from 7,000t in February. The official said that March's output of wirerod had risen because of a week-long shutdown in February for the Chinese New Year. However, output had still fallen short of the company's 13,000t target. Chinalco Kunming plans to produce 150,000t of wirerod in 2013, utilising around 68% of its 220,000t/y capacity. According to a report from Asian Metal, the company has recently settled its long-term charges for processing 8.0mm wirerod at RMB1,150/t (US$183/t).

Wirerod production at Hebei Dawufeng Copper has been temporarily suspended since early April in order to carry out maintenance. The company elected to halt production for a month in order to carry out equipment maintenance, owing to the currently sluggish wirerod market. Production at the plant, which has a wirerod production capacity of 100,000 t/y is scheduled to re-start in early May.

According to a new technical market research report from BCC Research, the domestic market for wind turbine components and systems will be worth $60.9 billion in 2013. This represents an increase from the 2007 market value of $7.9 billion and the estimated 2008 market value of $11.2 billion. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2008 and 2013 is expected to be 40.0%. \n\nThe market is analyzed by state and includes the top ten spenders on wind turbine technology: Texas, California, Iowa, Minnesota, Washington, Oregon, Colorado, New York, Kansas and Illinois. Texas has the largest statewide expenditure, exceeding $2.4 billion in 2007 and an estimated $3.0 billion in 2008. This should grow at a CAGR of 38.0% to reach $15.2 billion in 2013. \n

Luvata, the UK-based manufacturer of copper semis, expects demand for its products in the US and China to expand by 5% in 2013, according to Chief Executive John Peter Leesi. In an interview with Bloomberg, the Chief Executive said that residential and commercial construction is very important to Luvata and that an improvement in these sectors in the US was boosting demand. Luvata also expects a pickup in demand for copper tube as the air conditioner sector in China expands in 2013, after a poor year in 2012. On Europe, Luvata expects "flat-to-small growth" in demand in 2013.

According to a statement from the Japanese Electric Wire and Cable Makers' Association, Japanese shipments of copper wire and cable could rise by as much as 2.2% in the fiscal year Q2 2013 to Q1 2014. This would see shipments rise to 701,000t from an estimated 685,700t in the fiscal year ending March 2013. Although Japanese wire and cable shipments have grown for four consecutive years, copper wire and cable shipments in 2012 were still around 20% lower than levels seen in 2007.

According to Tetsu Takahashi, chairman of the Japan Copper & Brass Association, Japanese production of copper and alloy semi-finished products will total 770,000t in 2012, the lowest level since 2009. However, the association is more positive on the prospects for 2013 suggesting that output could expand by 4%, supported by a weaker yen and more accommodative government policies. The association believes that the new government's efforts to reconstruct areas damaged by the 2011 earthquake, as well as the possibility for a rebound in autos exports to China, should lift the demand for Japanese semis in 2013.

Kentucky-based wire and cable manufacturer General Cable Corporation announced on 25th February an adjusted operating profit for the fourth quarter of 2012 of US$48.2M, down from US$ 75.4M in the third quarter. In an outlook for 2013 the company said they expect the first quarter of the year to be the weakest due to "specific factors in Europe and Mediterranean and ROW" although the company said it expects "sequentially better results in nearly all North American businesses." In 2013, the company expects a stronger performance from wire and cable used in the construction and utilities sectors in the US and the Rest of the World ex Europe. The company does not expect any improvement in its wirerod business in the US, but anticipates some pickup in wirerod sales in the Rest of the World ex Europe. The company highlighted in its report continuing weakness in Europe, but expects some improvement in 2013 with the outlook in France and the Mediterranean stabilising.

SINGAPORE -(Dow Jones)- Copper mine supply could struggle to match forecast demand growth in the period to 2013, Macquarie Bank said in a report dated Tuesday. The bank said copper demand was expected to be 4 million metric tons higher in 2013 than 2009, implying that a significant number of new mine projects will need to come onstream to balance the market.

"China has become the world's largest producer and consumer of plastic pipes. In 2013, China's plastic pipe output and demand reached 12.1 million tons and 11.117 million tons respectively, representing the respective year-on-year increase of 10.0% and 7.1%. The output of PVC pipes is higher than that of other plastic pipe varieties in China, followed by the output of PE pipes and PP pipes. In 2013, China's PVC pipe output hit 6.59 million tons, accounting for 54.5% of China's total plastic pipe output, while the output of PE pipes and PP pipes shared 40.5% together. "

Riccardo Garre the Chief Executive officer of KME Group SpA, the Italy-based manufacturer of copper semi-fabricated products, said in an interview with Bloomberg that he expects the company's production of copper and alloy semis to be 435,000t in 2013, unchanged from 2012, and 10% lower than in 2011. The Chief Executive said "to assume that in 2013 the volume will be exactly the same as in 2012, it means it's really a negative vision," although he did note some strength in flat-rolled copper and alloys used in the automotive and electronics industries. In the interview, he also said he believed slowing economic growth had prompted manufacturers to look for cheaper alternatives to copper semis, such as aluminium and plastics.

Jiangxi Copper, the large vertically-integrated Chinese miner, smelter and semis manufacturer announced on 27th March that its output of semi-finished copper products was 582,100t in 2012, an 18.6% increase on 2011. The company said that it expects to expand production further in 2013, to 845,000t, which would be an annual increase of 45%. The company will do this by adding additional capacity, increasing available capacity to 920,000t in 2013, from 720,000t in 2012.

Demand impact