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ALL RECOVERY INDICES of U.S. extended-stay hotels were lower compared to 2019 in May than in April, according to hotel investment advisors The Highland Group. The demand for economy extended-stay hotels declined 1.3 percent for the second consecutive month in May compared to same period last year mainly due to sharp increase in ADR in last few months, the report said. The U.S. Extended-Stay Hotels Bulletin: May 2022 by The Highland Group said that the extended-stay room supply growth was just 1.9 percent during the month. It is the second successive month that the growth was below 2 percent since 2013, and the eighth consecutive month of 4 percent or lower supply growth. The report added that the supply increase will be well below pre-pandemic levels during the near term. According to STR, all hotel room revenue was up 43 percent in May 2022 compared to last year. "In May, mid-price and upscale extended-stay segments reported their lowest monthly change in demand in 2022. Except for February 2021, due to the leap year in 2020, economy extended-stay hotels reported only the second monthly fall in demand in 23 consecutive months," the report said. "Overall hotel occupancy gained more than extended-stay hotels in May compared to one year ago, decreasing extended-stay hotel's occupancy premium to 12 percentage points, and remains within its long-term average range."

STR AND TOURISM Economics downgraded their growth rate forecast for the U.S. hotel business with their final revision of 2024. The forecast for next year remains uncertain as the impact of the presidential election becomes clear. For 2024, projected gains in ADR and RevPAR were each downgraded, down 0.5 percentage points to 1.5 percent growth for ADR and with RevPAR's projected growth dropping 0.6 ppts to 1.4 percent, respectively. Occupancy for the year was lowered 0.1 ppts to 62.9 percent, after the previous forecast projected the metric to remain steady from 2023. For 2025, the occupancy growth projection was downgraded 0.4 ppts, and the forecast for ADR and RevPAR increases were lowered to 1.6 percent and 1.8 percent, respectively. "The outlook for 2025 remains somewhat in flux, with positive sentiment potentially offset by the higher cost of living," said Amanda Hite, STR president. "Based on current economic conditions, higher-end hotels will continue to drive industry performance. The change in the presidential administration is anticipated to yield stronger economic conditions at first, which is not yet reflected in the data."

THE 2020 COVID-influenced lodging industry recession resulted in some noticeable changes to the way hotels provide F&B service. Social distancing regulations forced operators to be creative in the way they served food and beverages to guests. Rising wage rates and sharp increases in the cost of food and beverage products compelled hotel managers to find ways to control costs. The inability of hotels to attract employees to fill the positions eliminated during the recession required creative solutions to improve productivity and offer more with less. These factors resulted in the following hotel food and beverage trends during the subsequent recovery period: The increased offering of kiosks and grab-and-go venues The closing of traditional three-meal-a-day restaurants A reduction in the menus, number of seats, and hours of remaining F&B venues Reductions in in-room dining and mini-bar service The conversion of food and beverage space to other revenue generating purposes To learn how these recent changes in hotel food and beverage operations have impacted revenues and expenses, we have analyzed the operating statements of 2,500 U.S. full-service, resort, and convention hotels that participated in CBRE's annual Trends in the Hotel Industry in 2021 and 2022. In 2022, these 2,500 properties averaged 285 rooms in size, and achieved an occupancy of 64.7 percent, along with an ADR of $225.60. To provide more current information, we also relied on the monthly operating statements of 1,200 properties during the period January through June of 2023.

STR AND TOURISM Economics made significant downward adjustments to the 2024-25 U.S. hotel forecast, reflecting lower-than-expected performance and reduced growth projections for the remainder of the year. Projected gains in ADR and RevPAR were downgraded by 1 and 2.1 percentage points, respectively. Occupancy is also expected to decline, contrasting with the previous forecast's projection of year-over-year growth in this metric. While an occupancy growth projection was maintained for 2025, ADR and RevPAR were adjusted downward by 0.8 and 0.9 percentage points, respectively, STR and TE said in a joint statement. "We have seen a bifurcation in hotel performance over the first four months of the year, which we don't believe will abate soon," said Amanda Hite, STR's president. "The increased cost of living is affecting lower-to-middle income households and their ability to travel, thus lessening demand for hotels in the lower price tier. The upscale through luxury tier is seeing healthy demand, but pricing power has waned given changes in mix and travel patterns and to a lesser extent, economic conditions. Travel remains a priority for most Americans, but the volume has lessened as prices on goods and services continue to rise."

U.S. EXTENDED-STAY HOTELS started 2025 with strong January growth, particularly at lower price points, according to The Highland Group. Supply and demand grew much faster than the overall industry, but other performance metrics lagged. The U.S. Extended-Stay Hotels Bulletin: January 2025 reported stronger ADR and the most RevPAR gains for extended-stay hotels compared to corresponding classes. "January was another very good month for extended-stay hotels with positive change in RevPAR in nine of the last ten months and the economy segment continuing to lead RevPAR growth," said Mark Skinner, The Highland Group's partner.

U.S. EXTENDED-STAY HOTELS closed the year strong in December, particularly at lower price points, outpacing the overall industry in supply, demand, occupancy and revenue growth, according to The Highland Group. However, slower ADR gains led to a smaller RevPAR increase than in the broader industry. The Highland Group's U.S. Extended-Stay Hotels Bulletin: December 2024 reported economy extended-stay hotels saw their third consecutive monthly RevPAR increase, with December's 5.5 percent growth, the highest since June 2022. "December was another very good month for extended-stay hotels with positive change in RevPAR in eight of the last nine months despite accelerating supply growth," said Mark Skinner, The Highland Group's partner.

DEMAND FOR U.S. extended-stay hotels in the fourth quarter of 2021 was more than five times greater than supply, resulting in overall occupancy just below its 2019 peak, according to the Highland Group. December's monthly report from the group also showed the segment to be firmly in recovery. According to the research consulting firm's "U.S. Extended-stay Hotels: Fourth quarter 2021" report, the bottom up recovery continues with economy and mid-price extended-stay hotels in the fourth quarter posting record nominal average rate and RevPAR. Demand in the fourth quarter is at a record high and room revenues are almost 97 percent of their nominal high reached during the same period in 2019, the report said. Occupancy and ADR remain 4 to 5 percentage points off previous high levels but should pick up in the near term as the demand change was six times the corresponding change in supply, it added.

THE U.S. HOTEL industry is set to benefit from the General Services Administration's recent decision to raise per diem rates for fiscal year 2025. This is the first increase in the meals and incidental expenses allowance in three years, a change welcomed by AAHOA and the American Hotel and Lodging Association. Each year, GSA sets per diem rates to reimburse federal employees' lodging and meals expenses for official travel within the continental U.S., typically based on the ADR for lodging and meals over a trailing 12-month period, minus five percent. Starting Oct. 1, the standard daily lodging allowance for most of the continental U.S. will increase by $3 to $110, while the meals and incidental expenses allowance will rise by $9 to $68. "With government travel being a significant contributor to hotel revenue, it's crucial that federal per diem rates align with the economic pressures hotels face today, including persistent inflation and widespread labor shortages," said Miraj Patel, AAHOA's chairman.

U.S. EXTENDED-STAY HOTELS showed positive growth in April after a difficult first quarter, according to The Highland Group. Monthly room revenue growth was the highest in nearly a year, demand saw its strongest increase in 16 months, and ADR and RevPAR turned positive after two and four months of decline, respectively. "The performance of extended-stay hotels in April re-established the segment's long-term trend of increasing its market share of total hotel supply, demand and room revenues," said Mark Skinner, partner at The Highland Group. The extended-stay room supply grew 2.8 percent in April, slightly above the average monthly increase over the last two years, the report said. However, April marked 31 consecutive months of 4 percent or less supply growth, with annual supply change under 2 percent for two years-both metrics well below the long-term average.

DEMAND, WAGE GROWTH and ADR increase remain the top concerns in hospitality industry, according to the Hospitality Asset Managers Association's Fall 2024 Industry Outlook Survey. However, about 82 percent of respondents do not expect a recession in 2025. Furthermore, approximately 58 percent have made or plan to make changes to brand or management as part of their strategy. "The overall hospitality industry outlook remains positive from the hotel asset management point of view," said Sarah Gulla, HAMA's president. "For the most part, our member hotels continue to exceed budgeted forecasts, and there seems to be little fear of a recession on the immediate horizon. While demand and wage increases remain persistent concerns, this is a solid time to be in the hospitality industry."

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE has increased from the previous week, aligning with the extended holiday weekend, while year-over-year comparisons also continue to show positive trends, according to CoStar. The percentage changes showed positivity on weekdays due to comparisons with the Yom Kippur period from the previous year, but year-over-year occupancy rates still experienced a decline. Occupancy stood at 67.8 percent for the week ending on Oct. 7, a slight rise from the preceding week's 66.7 percent, with a marginal year-over-year decline of 0.2 percent, according to CoStar. ADR was $163.19, showing an increase from the previous week's $157.89 and a notable 5.4 percent surge compared to the previous year. RevPAR also saw an uptick to $110.68, surpassing the previous week's $105.31, and reflecting a 5.2 percent rise from 2022.

DRIVEN BY STRONGER-than-expected demand and moderate supply, CBRE has raised its forecast for hotel performance again this year, resulting in increased occupancy. CBRE revised its forecast for 2023 RevPAR to $97.89, up 6 percent year-over-year and an increase of $0.43 rise from the previous forecast. This positive revision is based on a 65-basis-point increase in expected occupancy compared to the previous forecast issued in February, CBRE said in a statement. Furthermore, the ADR is projected to grow by 3.7 percent in 2023, slightly lower than the previous forecast of 4.2 percent. According to CBRE Hotels Research, this is primarily due to slightly lower inflation expectations and a higher proportion of group travel and shoulder-period demand, which typically have lower rates. CBRE's baseline scenario forecast envisages an average GDP growth of 0.8 percent and average inflation of 4.6 percent in 2023. Given the strong correlation between GDP and RevPAR growth, changes in the economic outlook will directly impact the performance of the lodging industry, CBRE noted. "We are already starting to see signs that the easing of travel restrictions in Japan and China, combined with continued improvements in group and independent business demand, are bolstering demand heading into the heavy summer travel season," said Rachael Rothman, head of hotel research & data analytics at CBRE.

HOTEL BOOKINGS FOR Easter 2025 are up 16.8 percent from the same period last year, according to SiteMinder, a hotel distribution and revenue platform. The data, comparing bookings at the same properties across nine markets 30 days before Easter in 2024 and 2025, shows stronger demand, earlier bookings and growing interest in international travel. These global trends are mirrored in the U.S., where SiteMinder data showed a 14.98 percent rise in Easter weekend bookings as of March 18-an average of 3.6 more reservations per property compared to the same period in 2024. "With Easter falling later this year than in 2024, we're not just seeing stronger travel demand-we're seeing travelers rethink how they plan," said James Bishop, SiteMinder's vice president for ecosystem and strategic partnerships. "Earlier bookings and a rise in international travel are shaping this year's trends, with the later holiday creating more favorable conditions in many regions. But flexibility remains key-historically, domestic travelers tend to book closer to arrival, meaning the final guest mix and pricing dynamics could still evolve in the coming weeks."

U.S. EXTENDED-STAY room supply grew by 3.5 percent in June, exceeding the average monthly increase of the past two years, according to The Highland Group. June marked the 33rd consecutive month of supply growth at 4 percent or less, with annual changes remaining below 2 percent for the past two years. However, both metrics are well below the long-term average. The growth includes the addition of Water Walk by Wyndham, a mid-priced extended-stay brand, to the database in May following its affiliation with Wyndham, the report said. The 12.8 percent increase in economy extended-stay supply, along with modest gains in midprice and upscale segments, is mainly due to conversions, The Highland Group said. New construction in the economy segment is estimated at about 3 percent of rooms open compared to a year ago. The report noted that supply change comparisons have been affected by re-branding, shifting rooms between segments, de-flagging hotels that no longer meet brand standards, and the sale of hotels to apartment companies and municipalities. The trend is likely to taper off in the second half of 2024, with the full-year increase in extended-stay supply compared to 2023 remaining well below the long-term average.