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Dennis OConnor

What Went Wrong with Coronavirus Testing in the U.S. | The New Yorker - 0 views

  • n February 5th, sixteen days after a Seattle resident who had visited relatives in Wuhan, China, was diagnosed as having the first confirmed case of COVID-19 in the United States, the Centers for Disease Control, in Atlanta, began sending diagnostic tests to a network of about a hundred state, city, and county public-health laboratories⁠. Up to that point, all testing for COVID-19 in the U.S. had been done at the C.D.C.; of some five hundred suspected cases⁠ tested at the Centers, twelve had confirmed positive. The new test kits would allow about fifty thousand patients to be tested, and they would also make testing much faster, as patient specimens would no longer have to be sent to Atlanta to be evaluated.
  • Before a state or local lab could use the C.D.C.-developed tests on actual patients
  • verification
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  • larger number, about thirty-six of them, received inconclusive⁠ results from one of the reagents.
  • Another five,
  • had problems with two reagents
  • On February 8th
  • we’re looking at exponential growth, and we need to figure out how to meet an exponential demand.”
  • the verification problems were “part of the normal procedures⁠.” In the meantime, she said, until new reagents could be manufactured, all COVID-19 testing in the United States would continue to take place exclusively at the C.D.C⁠.
  • The public-health-laboratory network was never intended to provide widespread testing in the event of a pandemic.
  • the three-week delay caused by the C.D.C.’s failure to get working test kits into the hands of the public-health labs came at a crucial time.
  • The void created by the C.D.C.’s faulty tests made it impossible for public-health authorities to get an accurate picture of how far and how fast the disease was spreadin
  • In hotspots like Seattle, and probably elsewhere, COVID-19 spread undetected for several weeks, which in turn only multiplied the need for more tests.
  • The problem was that containment was not done very well.
  • e cascading effects that they’ve had on the country’s COVID-19 preparations suggest a much larger problem with the way the United States has structured its pandemic response.
  • Yet flexibility was not what Jerome and his lab found when they tried to get an E.U.A. for their COVID-19 test.
  • problem was exacerbated by a President who has simultaneously underplayed the severity of the outbreak and overpromised the means available to fight it
  • problems with COVID-19 testing in the United States have obscured
  • triumph of modern medical science
  • Chinese scientists uploaded a copy of the virus’s genome to an online repository⁠, and virologists around the world set to work to develop diagnostic tests for the new disease
  • January 21st, a team in Berlin, led by Christian Drosten, one of the scientists who discovered the original SARS virus, in 2003, submitted the first paper to describe a protocol for testing for SARS-CoV-2.
  • That protocol would form the basis for a test disseminated, early on, by the World Health Organization
  • That same day, Messonnier announced that the C.D.C. had finalized its own test⁠, which it used to confirm the first known case of COVID-19 in the U.S.
  • The U.W. virology lab
  • started, probably in earnest in mid-January, to prepare what we call a laboratory-developed test,⁠
  • It took a team at the lab, working under the direction of Alex Greninger, about two weeks to develop a working version
  • But, as soon as Alex Azar, the Secretary of Health and Human Services, declared a public-health emergency, on February 4th, a new regulatory regime took effect. From that point on, any lab that wanted to conduct its own tests for the new coronavirus would first need to secure something called an Emergency Use Authorization from the F.D.A.
  • This shift in the regulations sounds perverse, since it restricts the use of new tests at precisely the moment they’re most needed.
  • E.U.A. process is supremely flexible.
  • several labs reported their problems to the C.D.C. In a briefing a few days later,
  • hen there’s a big emergency and we feel like we should really do something, it gets hard. It’s a little frustrating. We’ve got a lot of scientists and doctors and laboratory personnel who are incredibly good at making assays. What we’re not so good at is figuring out all the forms and working with the bureaucracy of the federal government.”
  • At one point, he was very frustrated because he’d e-mailed them what we were doing so they could review it,”
  • Here we are in this SARS-CoV-2 crisis, and you have to send them something through the United States Postal Service. It’s just shocking.
  • Despite these difficulties, Jerome said, the F.D.A. ultimately proved responsive to the lab’s entreaties. “They had good and substantive feedback that made our testing better, and the response time was typically just a couple of days.”
  • believe it was, February 29th,” he said. “And then we got a specimen from one of the people who were the two original cases in Washington
  • The E.U.A. regulations, however, prohibited the lab from reporting the results to the doctors who had ordered the tests for their patients.
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    "Sharfstein, too, thinks that it's fair to criticize the federal government for not recognizing that its pandemic plans had a single point of failure. The C.D.C. quickly developed a working test, and it was understandable, at some level, that people at the Centers thought that fixing the faulty reagents for the public-health labs would be faster than shifting to an entirely different protocol. Nevertheless, Sharfstein said, "Why are we relying only on the C.D.C.? What the F.D.A. could have done, and eventually did do, is say, 'You can use other approaches.' " Even so, he said, "I don't think it's quite fair to totally blame the F.D.A. for this. The F.D.A. can design an approach to support the public-health strategy, but someone has to tell F.D.A. the public-health goal." The delay in clearly establishing those goals, he said, shows why the decision to shut down the N.S.C. directorate was so consequential. "People talk about, like, why does it matter that they closed the White House office on pandemic preparedness? This is one reason.""
Dennis OConnor

Coronavirus Antibody Tests: Can You Trust the Results? - The New York Times - 0 views

  • Of the 14 tests, only three delivered consistently reliable results. Even the best had some flaws.
  • Each test was evaluated with the same set of blood samples: from 80 people known to be infected with the coronavirus, at different points after infection; 108 samples donated before the pandemic; and 52 samples from people who were positive for other viral infections but had tested negative for SARS-CoV-2.
  • these tactics mean nothing if the test results can’t be trusted
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  • The proportion of people in the United States who have been exposed to the coronavirus is likely to be 5 percent or less, Dr. Hensley said. “If your kit has a 3 percent false-positive, how do you interpret that? It’s basically impossible,” he said. “If your kit has 14 percent false positive, it’s useless.”
  • The duo recruited Dr. Jeffrey Whitman and Dr. Caryn Bern, who last year published an analysis of antibody tests for Chagas disease. Other graduate students and postdoctoral fellows volunteered to help perform the evaluations.
  • In all, the investigators analyzed 10 rapid tests that deliver a yes-no signal for antibodies, and two tests using a lab technique known as Elisa that indicate the amount of antibodies present and are generally considered to be more reliable.
  • The Bay Area team finished evaluating 12 tests in record time, less than a month. By comparison, the Chagas project required a team of three people working for more than a year just to compare four tests.
  • Having a study design already in hand helped speed the work, but there was one key difference. Decades of data have shown that Chagas disease elicits lifelong immunity.
  • Already Americans are scrambling to take antibody tests to see if they might escape lockdowns. Public health experts are wondering if those with positive results might be allowed to return to work.
  • Tests made by Sure Biotech and Wondfo Biotech, along with an in-house Elisa test, produced the fewest false positives.
  • A test made by Bioperfectus detected antibodies in 100 percent of the infected samples, but only after three weeks of infection.
  • None of the tests did better than 80 percent until that time period, which was longer than expected, Dr. Hsu said.
  • the tests are less likely to produce false negatives the longer ago the initial infection occurred,
  • There are multiple tests that have specificities greater than 95 percent.
  • Dr. Krammer has developed a two-step Elisa test that he said has 100 percent specificity and delivers a measure of the quantity of IgM and IgG antibodies a person has.
  • Scanwell Health, a Los Angeles-based start-up, has ordered millions of test kits from Innovita, a Chinese manufacturer, and has applied to the Food and Drug Administration to market the tests for at-home use.In the new study, the Innovita test detected antibodies in 83 percent of infected people and yielded a false-positive rate of 4 percent.
  • Scanwell Health, said the study looked at an earlier version of Innovita’s test and not the “newer, improved version” his company had ordered. “It will be interesting to see how it performs,”
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    "A team of scientists worked around the clock to evaluate 14 antibody tests. A few worked as advertised. Most did not."
Dennis OConnor

First U.S. Company Announces an Upcoming Home COVID-19 Test | Time - 0 views

  • Food and Drug Administration allowed certified labs, including commercial lab testing companies, to develop and distribute COVID-19 tests on Feb. 29.
  • People can order the Everlywell COVID-19 test on the company’s website, after first answering questions about their basic health, symptoms and risk factors for the coronavirus disease. A doctor still needs to prescribe the test, so telemedicine doctors from PWNHealth, a national network of physicians who prescribe diagnostic tests, then reviews these answers to determine if a person qualifies for testing, based on criteria established by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
  • Currently, because COVID-19 tests are not plentiful in the U.S., doctors are trying to rule out other respiratory diseases like flu first, and only ordering tests for people with symptoms who also have other risk factors for infection, such as being in close contact with others who have been diagnosed.
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  • If the telemedicine doctor decides to prescribe an Everlywell COVID-19 test, the company says it will send the $135 test kit in two days (customers can pay $30 more to receive the kit overnight).
  • As with many of the commercially available tests, this one extracts SARS-CoV-2, the virus behind COVID-19, from the sample and then probes for specific genetic signatures of the virus.
  • If the test is positive, the company also provides a full telemedicine consultation with one of around 200 physicians that is included in the cost of the test.
  • Everlywell says it is ready to ship 30,000 COVID-19 tests, and plans to expand the number of labs processing the sample
  • kits will depend on the availability of swabs for collecting samples
  • global shortage of swabs for any lab performing the test.
  • We’re working hard to ramp up weekly capacity to test 250,000 Americans,” says Cheek
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    DeAunne Denmark, M.D. Phd - I was just reading about this last night. Dr forum blowing up about it. It could be a gigantic win for EverlyWell (and at-home D-T-C Direct-to-Consumer) if they do it right. But *must* do it right, e.g. including transparency re: methods, interfacing with HCP/EMRs, etc. The big issue may be collection variability, not unlike the microbiome. Nasal swab not trivial, more talk now about collection variability possibly accounting for a large proportion of "negs" turning positive. Hate to see a lot of false confidence running around at large infecting others.
Dennis OConnor

The CDC and States Are Misreporting COVID-19 Test Data - The Atlantic - 0 views

  • A negative test result means something different for each test. If somebody tests negative on a viral test, a doctor can be relatively confident that they are not sick right now; if somebody tests negative on an antibody test, they have probably never been infected with or exposed to the coronavirus. (Or they may have been given a false result—antibody tests are notoriously less accurate on an individual level than viral tests.) The problem is that the CDC is clumping negative results from both tests together in its public reporting.
  • Mixing the two tests makes it much harder to understand the meaning of positive tests, and it clouds important information about the U.S. response to the pandemic, Jha said. “The viral testing is to understand how many people are getting infected, while antibody testing is like looking in the rearview mirror. The two tests are totally different signals,” he told us. By combining the two types of results, the CDC has made them both “uninterpretable,” he said.
  • “Combining a test that is designed to detect current infection with a test that detects infection at some point in the past is just really confusing and muddies the water,” Hanage told us.
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    "The government's disease-fighting agency is conflating viral and antibody tests, compromising a few crucial metrics that governors depend on to reopen their economies. Pennsylvania, Georgia, Texas, and other states are doing the same."
Dennis OConnor

Love 2.0 - Online Tools - 1 views

  • Given your ever-shifting emotional landscape, any single measure of your positivity ratio can only capture so much.
  • view your score for any given day with some skepticism
  • more trustworthy
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    "Kabir Recommends: The Positivity Self Test is a brief, 20-item survey that asks you to report on your experiences of several emotions over the past 24 hours. Each item on the test includes a trio of words that are related, but not quite the same, for example, "hopeful, optimistic, or encouraged" and "sad, downhearted, or unhappy." With this strategy, each item captures a set of emotions that share a key resemblance and this short test becomes that much more accurate. Keep in mind that the Positivity Self Test merely provides a snapshot of your emotions. Everybody's emotions change by the day, hour, and minute. Some scientists would say that they change by the millisecond. Given your ever-shifting emotional landscape, any single measure of your positivity ratio can only capture so much. One way to overcome such measurement hurdles is to measure repeatedly. Even if you complete the Positivity Self Test as honestly as possible, you should view your score for any given day with some skepticism. Was this particular day representative? Probably not. Days vary. So the more days you can average together to create your estimate, the more trustworthy that estimate becomes. You can get a clear picture of your typical positivity ratio by completing the Positivity Self Test every evening for two weeks. Take the Positivity Self Test In the scientific literature, the Positivity Self Test is also know as the modified Differential Emotions Scale, or mDES, created by Dr. Fredrickson based on an earlier scale developed by pioneering emotion scientist, Carroll Izard. The scholarly references are: Fredrickson, B. L. (in press). Positive emotions broaden and build. In E. Ashby Plant & P. G. Devine (Eds.) Advances in Experimental Social Psychology. Elsevier. Fredrickson, B. L., Tugade, M. M., Waugh, C. E., & Larkin, G. (2003). What good are positive emotions in crises? A prospective study of resilience and emotions following the terrorist attacks on the United States on September 11
Dennis OConnor

FAQs on Diagnostic Testing for SARS-CoV-2 | FDA - 0 views

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    Explanation from DeAunne Denmark, MD, PhD : And just to clarify for all, since all of the testing jargon and landscape can be *extremely* confusing, especially now: The FDA has currently relaxed regulations for COVID diagnostics under "Emergency Use" (EUA). This authorizes, not approves, test kits, machines and devices to run those kits, and all other aspects involved in diagnostic testing. Authorize vs approve are very different animals under FDA. And you will see this repeatedly emphasized on the FDA site. But most often neglected, skipped over, mistaken in the wider press. Many articles and press releases use "approve" which is technically wrong - they mean authorize, or "grant use", or "use will not be objected to by FDA." If you have the stamina, I highly recommended reading as much of this as you can: https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/emergency-situations-medical-devices/faqs-diagnostic-testing-sars-cov-2 "Validation" is yet an additional aspect that is probably the grayest zone of all, since it is left to each company/testing entity how exactly this is done. Validation can range from excellent to pretty cruddy science and still meet FDA "standards". These will be the devilish details we need to sort out re: collaborating with partners. And will unfortunately likely be a big mess for many outpatient Drs trying to figure out which test to order.
Dennis OConnor

The Lyme Disease Biobank - Characterization of 550 Patient and Control Samples from the... - 0 views

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    Recommended by Sharon Wampler "ABSTRACT Lyme disease (LD) is an increasing public health problem. Current laboratory testing is insensitive in early infection, the stage at which appropriate treatment is most effective in preventing disease sequela. The Lyme Disease Biobank (LDB) collects samples from individuals with symptoms consistent with early LD presenting with or without erythema migrans (EM) or an annular, expanding skin lesion, and uninfected individuals from endemic areas. Samples were collected from 550 participants (298 cases and 252 controls) according to IRB-approved protocols and shipped to a centralized biorepository. Testing was performed to confirm the presence of tick-borne pathogens by real-time PCR, and a subset of samples was tested for Borrelia burgdorferi by culture. Serology using the CDC's standard two-tiered testing algorithm (STTTA) for LD was performed on all samples. LD diagnosis was supported by laboratory testing in 82 cases, including positive STTTA, PCR, culture, or 2 positive ELISA's with EM >5 cm, while the remaining 216 cases had negative laboratory testing results. For the controls, 43 were positive on at least one of the tiers, and 6 were positive by STTTA. This collection highlights and reinforces the known limitations of serologic testing in early LD, with only 29% of individuals presenting with EM >5 cm yielding a positive result using the STTTA. Aliquots of whole blood, serum, and urine from clinically characterized patients with and without LD are available to investigators in academia and industry for evaluation or development of novel diagnostic assays for LD, to continue to improve upon currently available methods."
Dennis OConnor

Mimi Guarneri: Coronavirus Patient Testing & Care Health Services Flowchart - Pacific P... - 0 views

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    "How Will Coronavirus Patients Flow through Health Services? Many of you have called asking to be tested for Coronavirus. Given recent testing challenges, the CDC and County have provided physicians with a simple coronavirus patient testing & care health services flowchart. As you can see, if symptoms are mild, testing is not indicated at this time. It is my hope that we will soon be able to test everyone! The 211 number mentioned below is a San Diego County information line that helps people efficiently access appropriate services, and provides vital data and trend information. The website for 211 is https://211sandiego.org/"
Dennis OConnor

Coronavirus Testing Basics | FDA - 0 views

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    "You've probably heard a lot about coronavirus testing recently. If you think you have coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and need a test, contact your health care provider, local pharmacy, or local health departmentExternal Link Disclaimer immediately. The FDA has been working around the clock to increase the availability of critical medical products, including tests for the coronavirus, to fight the COVID-19 pandemic. Learn more about the different types of tests and the steps involved."
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    The video on this page seems to be solid information for raising health information literacy. What does the group think?
Dennis OConnor

Antibodies and coronavirus immunity: everything we know. - 0 views

  • Antibodies will probably be key to getting us out of this—in one way or another. By Shannon Palus
  • one promising solution is the idea of antibodies and antibody tests.
  • as with everything about the virus, it’s not yet clear what role antibody tests will be able to play in getting us out of this, and it’s even not completely clear how much getting the coronavirus once prevents you from getting it again
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  • What is an antibody?
  • How do I get the anti-coronavirus antibodies?
  • The most basic (and worst) way to get the antibodies is to get the coronavirus.
  • So once you have the antibodies, you are immune against the virus?
  • We can’t count on immunity right now.
  • Wait, but aren’t there people out there who have gotten the novel coronavirus twice, within a short period of time?
  • So if I’ve been sick with COVID-19 already, should I assume I’m immune, or not?
  • OK. Let’s get to the tests. What’s the deal?
  • The fantasy of antibody tests is that they might be deployed to help us determine who can go back to work and school and normal social gatherings.
  • That sounds very promising!
  • even though the tests can provide a guess at immunity, even a positive result cannot guarantee anything.
  • So what are antibody tests actually good for right now?
  • They are tools to gather more data.
  • This is why the National Institutes of Health is currently recruiting 10,000 volunteers to take antibody tests.
  • There’s one clear way that they could help right now on an individual level: We’ve all been asked to basically assume we have the coronavirus; an antibody test could help clarify our own narratives.
  • If you test positive, you can also apply to donate plasma.
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    Recommended by Dr. Michael Kurisu D.O. 4/15/2020 Good summary. Not scientific or too detailed but good overall big picture view
Dennis OConnor

Testing ramps up in California - 0 views

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    Source: LA Times 4/8/2020 As of Tuesday, California said it had results for 143,172 tests - or 362 per 100,000 people. That's a sharp increase from two weeks ago when just 39 of every 100,000 residents had been tested. Yet for all its deep sources of innovation, the state is behind the national average of 596 tests per 100,000, according to the COVID Tracking Project. In New York, which has far more people hospitalized with severe symptoms, testing has reached 1,748 of every 100,000.
Dennis OConnor

Doctors on the Frontlines of the Coronavirus Fight - The Atlantic - 0 views

  • Yui had always counted herself lucky to be among a family of doctors. Now the family is facing the greatest challenge of their lives as they wrestle with the dilemma of caring for their patients even though this risks exposing their loved one
  • Will her family survive the crisis intact?
  • Doctors across America are facing similar predicaments, made all the more acute by the government’s failure to protect them—to warn the public, to provide tests, and to supply enough protective equipment.
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  • When it comes to us being doctors, I worry about [family members] Stephanie and Alex and Jennifer and Pam—about their health, and about the eventual burnout due to everything that’s going on,”
  • As a primary-care physician, she’s the first point of contact with the medical system for many patients.
  • Pam recommended a hospital visit to be tested. “It was already too late for me and my family,” Pamela told me—she had been potentially exposed. Her patient got tested on March 12, and is still waiting for results. “My patient’s test was sent from Baltimore to a lab in Utah, then due to a reagent shortage [a substance needed to process the tests] sent from Utah to Arizona, Arizona back to a lab in North Carolina,” she said.
  • This is a mirror of the dysfunction and delays surrounding the country’s testing crisis, a major factor hamstringing the fight against the virus.
  • Meanwhile, she started feeling sick on Tuesday, and took the test herself. Self-quarantined at home, she thinks it’s only a matter of time, if she does have the virus, before she infects her two children—totally isolating from them would be all but impossible.
  • As a health-care provider, if I test positive, it has big implications for my office, my staff, and all the patients,”
  • Emergency-room doctors, he noted, are among those most at risk.
  • Her emergency room has been seeing more and more patients who have symptoms
  • She wears protective equipment but knows that the hospital could run out.
  • It’s not lost on Koo and her family that medical professionals worldwide have been dying fighting the coronavirus.
  • the main dilemma they’re grappling with is not so much getting sick themselves but spreading the virus to their families, their patients, and the public.
  • his might be the greatest fear of doctors across the country—that they’ll move from being part of the solution to part of the problem.
  • should. It weighs heavily on people.”Yui, for her part, told me she’d never let her fears over the virus stop her from doing her job.
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    Dr. Michael Kurisu D.O.: Another article capturing the dialogue that i hear from a lot of my colleagues and others. We have doctors as well In my family : -My sister is Neuro ICU and director of stroke at Tri city hospital in Oceanside -Her husband is ER doc -My little sister is the PhD in sociology. (She specializes in education programs for the incarcerated and has interest on health access for prisons - which is a frightful place during this pandemic)
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    We are in a war against this virus. First responders are the first line of defense. There is a lack of supplies and central leadership. However, there is no shortagage of courage. When you meet a first responder, say, "Thank you for your service."
Dennis OConnor

Genome Medical has Partnered with LunaDNA | LunaDNA - 0 views

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    "Our partner, Genome Medical, makes it easy for you to speak with a clinical professional about your DNA information. Interested in DNA testing but don't know where to begin? The experts at Genome Medical can help with that, too. Access your data files directly from your LunaDNA dashboard to support proactive health discussions. Help you better understand your genetic test results or help you determine if testing is right for you Explain your health risks based on your family and personal health history Offer guidance on how you can integrate your results into your health care Assess whether family members should consider genetic testing Within days from scheduling your phone or video appointment, speak with a board-certified genetic counselor who can: Genome Medical's genetic counselors do not analyze raw data from various DNA vendors, such as 23andme and AncestryDNA. However, they can answer any of your specific medical questions and determine if additional genetic testing is right for you and your family. SCHEDULE YOUR SESSIONASK A QUESTION SELF-PAY $99 AS LOW AS $50 With qualified insurance the cost for genetic counseling may be as low as $50 if the consultation is a covered service under your plan. © 2020 LunaPBC. All rights reserved. ABOUT US   LunaDNA was created by the Public Benefit Corporation, LunaPBC™, a team of passionate genomics and technology veterans. 2019 Technology Pioneers World Economic Forum SELF-PAY $99 AS LOW AS $50 With qualified insurance the cost for genetic counseling may be as low as $50 if the consultation is a covered service under your plan. SCHEDULE YOUR SESSIONASK A QUESTION HOW IT WORKSRESOURCES 2020 Most Innovative Companies Fast Company "
Dennis OConnor

Swimming with the High-Tech Sharks to Improve COVID-19 Testing - NIH Director's Blog - 0 views

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    "So much has been reported over the past six months about testing for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) that keeping up with the issue can be a real challenge. To discuss the latest progress on new technologies for SARS-CoV-2 diagnostic testing in the United States, I spoke recently with NIH's Dr. Bruce Tromberg, director of the National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering (NIBIB). Not only does Bruce run a busy NIH institute, he is helping to coordinate the national response for expanded testing during the COVID-19 pandemic."
Dennis OConnor

The expanding landscape of consumer genetic health testing - Precision Medicine Advisors - 0 views

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    Recommended by DeAunne Denmark, MD, PhD: "Consumer genetic testing for health conditions has always been viewed with some skepticism by healthcare professionals. For many, direct-to-consumer (DTC) genetic testing was synonymous with 23andMe, whose health-related products are perceived as having little to no value for health care. But the landscape for consumer-initiated genetic health testing has changed dramatically in just the last year."
Dennis OConnor

The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2 | Nature Medicine - 1 views

  • Here we review what can be deduced about the origin of SARS-CoV-2 from comparative analysis of genomic data
  • Our analyses clearly show that SARS-CoV-2 is not a laboratory construct or a purposefully manipulated virus.
  • The receptor-binding domain (RBD) in the spike protein is the most variable part of the coronavirus genome1,2. Six RBD amino acids have been shown to be critical for binding to ACE2 receptors and for determining the host range of SARS-CoV-like viruses7.
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  • Theories of SARS-CoV-2 originsIt is improbable that SARS-CoV-2 emerged through laboratory manipulation of a related SARS-CoV-like coronavirus.
  • the genetic data irrefutably show that SARS-CoV-2 is not derived from any previously used virus backbone
  • we propose two scenarios that can plausibly explain the origin of SARS-CoV-2: (i) natural selection in an animal host before zoonotic transfer; and (ii) natural selection in humans following zoonotic transfer.
  • COVID-19 were linked to the Huanan market in Wuhan
  • it is likely that bats serve as reservoir hosts for its progenitor
  • Malayan pangolins (Manis javanica) illegally imported into Guangdong province contain coronaviruses similar to SARS-CoV-221
  • Although no animal coronavirus has been identified that is sufficiently similar to have served as the direct progenitor of SARS-CoV-2, the diversity of coronaviruses in bats and other species is massively undersampled
  • For a precursor virus to acquire both the polybasic cleavage site and mutations in the spike protein suitable for binding to human ACE2, an animal host would probably have to have a high population density (to allow natural selection to proceed efficiently) and an ACE2-encoding gene that is similar to the human ortholog
  • It is possible that a progenitor of SARS-CoV-2 jumped into humans, acquiring the genomic features described above through adaptation during undetected human-to-human transmission.
  • All SARS-CoV-2 genomes sequenced so
  • are thus derived from a common ancestor that had them too
  • Estimates of the timing of the most recent common ancestor of SARS-CoV-2 made with current sequence data point to emergence of the virus in late November 2019 to early December 201923,
  • compatible with the earliest retrospectively confirmed cases
  • Basic research involving passage of bat SARS-CoV-like coronaviruses in cell culture and/or animal models has been ongoing for many years in biosafety level 2 laboratories across the world27, and there are documented instances of laboratory escapes of SARS-CoV28. We must therefore examine the possibility of an inadvertent laboratory release of SARS-CoV-2.
  • The finding of SARS-CoV-like coronaviruses from pangolins with nearly identical RBDs, however, provides a much stronger and more parsimonious explanation of how SARS-CoV-2 acquired these via recombination or mutation1
  • it is reasonable to wonder why the origins of the pandemic matter
  • Detailed understanding of how an animal virus jumped species boundaries to infect humans so productively will help in the prevention of future zoonotic events.
  • More scientific data could swing the balance of evidence to favor one hypothesis over another.
Dennis OConnor

FDA Authorizes 1st Home Coronavirus Test That Doesn't Require A Prescription | KPBS - 0 views

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    "The company, which received about $30 million from the National Institutes of Health to ramp up production capacity, will be able to produce about 100,000 tests a day by January, Parsons says. By March, production should increase to about 250,000 tests a day. By June, productions should hit 1 million a day."
Dennis OConnor

Test Your Assumptions With UC San Diego Citizen Science Online Tool | KPBS - 0 views

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    Click through to hear an 8 minute interview with Austin Durant, citizen experimenter and founder and chief fermentation officer, Fermenters Club and Vineet Pandey, lead designer and developer, Galileo. "Ever wonder if kombucha, the fermented tea drink, is actually good for you? Like many food and drinks touted as healthy, there hasn't been much scientific research to rely on and you'd just have to come to your own conclusions. Now a tool out of UC San Diego is empowering regular citizens to design experiments to test hypotheses and recruit participants, becoming scientists themselves. The tool is called Galileo and encourages participants to test their intuitions by asking questions like, can a vegan diet improve energy levels? Or does drinking coffee every day reduce the quality of sleep?"
Dennis OConnor

(149) What Is PCR Testing for COVID-19? - YouTube - 0 views

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    "American Association for Clinical Chemistry (AACC) President Dr. Carmen Wiley gives an overview of PCR testing, which is the most common type of test for COVID-19 and the one that patients are currently most likely to encounter."
Dennis OConnor

Using influenza surveillance networks to estimate state-specific prevalence of SARS-CoV... - 0 views

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    "Abstract Detection of SARS-CoV-2 infections to date has relied heavily on RT-PCR testing. However, limited test availability, high false-negative rates, and the existence of asymptomatic or sub-clinical infections have resulted in an under-counting of the true prevalence of SARS-CoV-2. Here, we show how influenza-like illness (ILI) outpatient surveillance data can be used to estimate the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2. We found a surge of non-influenza ILI above the seasonal average in March 2020 and showed that this surge correlated with COVID-19 case counts across states. If 1/3 of patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 in the US sought care, this ILI surge would have corresponded to more than 8.7 million new SARS-CoV-2 infections across the US during the three-week period from March 8 to March 28, 2020. Combining excess ILI counts with the date of onset of community transmission in the US, we also show that the early epidemic in the US was unlikely to have been doubling slower than every 4 days. Together these results suggest a conceptual model for the COVID-19 epidemic in the US characterized by rapid spread across the US with over 80% infected patients remaining undetected. We emphasize the importance of testing these findings with seroprevalence data and discuss the broader potential to use syndromic surveillance for early detection and understanding of emerging infectious diseases."
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