and here's one guys analysis of the 2010 statistics and some of his predictions, just about all of his predictions ended up wrong except that he predicted Vanderbilt was the most likely team to be upset in the first round....there's a lot of interesting sports stuff on the rest of the harvard sports analysis site worth checking out too
http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2010/03/17/predicting-ncaa-tournament-upsets-favorite-vulnerability/