The New Rules: America's Demographic Edge in 'Post-American' World - 0 views
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To the amazement of many from my generation, who grew up in real fear of "Soylent Green"-type scenarios of over-population, our primary demographic challenge going forward is to maintain a decent worker-to-retiree ratio as national populations age at an unprecedented speed
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As Joel Kotkin argues in his recent book, "The Next Hundred Million," America "should emerge by mid-century as the most affluent, culturally rich, and successful nation in human history" as we increase in size to 400 million citizens by 2050.
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Kotkin sees America's heartland as our most profound demographic asset going forward, noting that this vast and agriculturally rich "flyover country" can easily absorb another 100 million citizens and still leave us, in demographic terms, six times less dense than Germany.
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Still think China is going to rule this century, weighed down by that unprecedented demographic burden?
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So ask yourself, where do you really think the "clash of civilizations" will unfold in our rapidly modernizing world? Among the most religious societies, or between the more religious and least religious ones? I'm betting on the latter, especially as new bio-technologies proliferate, pitting the "this is my lifers" against the "go forth and multipliers."
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Most observers of American society lament our alleged over-indulgence in individualism: political scientist Robert Putnam's "bowling alone" metaphor. Kotkin's heartland-focused vision of America's future stands apart from that conventional wisdom by emphasizing our society's capacity for regeneration and reinvention.
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"To the amazement of many from my generation, who grew up in real fear of "Soylent Green"-type scenarios of over-population, our primary demographic challenge going forward is to maintain a decent worker-to-retiree ratio as national populations age at an unprecedented speed." By Thomas P.M. Barnett in World Politics Review on July 12, 2010