Some Insights on Generation Size/Dates - 0 views
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The demographic challenge facing America is not as severe as the challenge facing near all of the other developed countries (and even some of the developing countries, like China). The reason is pretty simple: We have a higher fertility rate and we have a higher immigration rate. Indeed, we are the *only* developed country experiencing “replacement rate” fertility. And we are the only developed country whose total population is projected to continue growing (albeit very slowly), and not turn negative, through to the end of the next century. The U.S. fiscal situation is also helped by the fact that our pay-as-you-go cash pension system is smaller and less generous, relative to GDP, than those of other countries. But this plus is more than offset by our super-expensive health-care entitlement edifice, which is much more expensive as a share of GDP than any other country’s and is growing faster as a share of GDP.
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"I have recently run into discussions where there is confusion about the date boundaries and sizes of generations. Even the word "generation" can sometimes be up for contention. On the definition of "generation," I don't get hot and bothered about it. The etymological history of the word "generation" is sufficiently broad (having been applied to families, computers, eras, what have you), that people are pretty much free to call any arbitrary cohort group a "generation" if they feel like it. Most of these definitions, however, are ad hoc. Even the famous Census Bureau definition of Boomers (which they define as 1946-64) is ad hoc, determined entirely by an arbitrary uptick and then downtick along a broad fertility-rate swell." By Neil Howe at Lifecourse Blog on November 1, 2010.