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Frank Gallagher

Shahrudi Publically Backs Ahmadinejad - 0 views

  • During a campaign gathering in Tehran, the hardline head of Iran's judiciary, Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi, threw his support to Mr. Ahmadinejad, as well.
  • Karroubi has gained some notoriety among the four candidates for proposing a novel economic plan which would grant shares in Iran's oil wealth to all Iranian citizens.
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    Generally thought to be no fan of the President... considers him to be too extreme and is irritated by his unorthodox religious views.
Frank Gallagher

Iran protests: live |News |guardian.co.uk - 0 views

  • 6.15pm: Iranian filmmakers Marjane Satrapi and Mohsen Makhmalbaf just held a press conference in Brussels to say they have a document proving election fraud, Adnkronos news agency reports.The document, seen here, says that Mousavi won the election with 19m votes, with cleric Mehdi Karroubi coming in second and Ahmadinejad coming in third. Satrapi and Makhmalbaf said the document had come from the Iranian electoral commission, and is dated June 13, the day after the election.
    • Frank Gallagher
       
      Makhmalbaf is Musavi's Spokesman.
  • Saeed reports that Mousavi's wife Zahra Rahnavard today joined injured students at Tehran University, and condemened violence by the government and riot police.
  • A friend of the Guardian in Tehran writes that her Gmail account has been filtered, and that her internet service provider said it has been ordered to cut all emails, messaging software and many websites, especially foreign news outlets.
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  • 11am: The man who leaked the real election results from the Interior Ministry - the ones showing Ahmadinejad coming third - was killed in a suspicious car accident, according to unconfirmed reports, writes Saeed Kamali Dehghan in Tehran.Mohammad Asgari, who was responsible for the security of the IT network in Iran's interior ministry, was killed yesterday in Tehran. Asgari had reportedly leaked results that showed the elections were rigged by government use of new software to alter the votes from the provinces. Asgari was said to have leaked information that showed Mousavi had won almost 19 million votes, and should therefore be president.
Frank Gallagher

Rafa and Khamenei Talking to Senior Clerics - 1 views

  • After delivering his landmark sermon last Friday, Rafsanjani left for the city of Mashhad to consult with senior clerics there, particularly ayatollah Vaeze Tabasi (the head of the memorial of the Shiite’s eight saint in that city) and other clerics such as Safi Golpaygani and Makarem Shirazi (both of whom are on a visit to the city) about the post election crises that has erupted in Iran. Among those who came to welcome Rafsanjani in Mashhad were Mohammad Javad Mohammadizadeh, the governor of Khorasan province, ayatollah Elm-alhoda, the Friday prayer leader of Mashhad, seyed Ahmad Alavi, the deputy of <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placename w:st="on">Ghods
  • It should be noted that in Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s latest trip to <st1:place w:st="on">Mashhad</st1:place> recently, senior cleric Vaez Tabasi notably refrained from welcoming him.
  • In a related news, reformist website Moje Azadi (Wave of Freedom) wrote that ayatollah Khamenei plans to meet with a number of senior clerics in Qom (including ayatollah Javadi Amoli and ayatollah Amini, both Friday prayer leaders of Qom). It is said that he will be talking about his support of Ahmadinejad and discussing options for a political solution to resolve the current crises, among other topics.
Frank Gallagher

Two Iranian ministers fired in cabinet feud - FT - 0 views

  • Domestic news agencies did not explain why Hossein Saffar-Harandi, the culture minister, and Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, the intelligence minister, lost their jobs. There was speculation their dismissals followed a row within the government over the post of the first vice-president.
Frank Gallagher

Ahmad Khatami Criticises Mashai as VP - 0 views

  • Ahmad Khatami, a hardline cleric who strongly backed Mr Ahmadi-Nejad’s “landslide” victory, has called on the president to reverse his decision.Grand Ayatollah Naser Makarem Shirazi, one of the most influential religious leaders, on Wednesday joined the calls when he said in a religious decree that anyone who had said Iran was “a friend of [the] Israeli people” would “surely lack legitimacy” and such an appointment should be “corrected as soon as possible”.Fundamentalist parliamentarians have threatened the government with a vote of no confidence on other appointments unless Mr Mashaei steps aside.
  • Reformist papers have said that the premature appointment of a controversial figure before the government had been fully sworn in was a tactical move by the president to distract attention from the post-election protests
Frank Gallagher

Khamenei weighs in to Sack Mashai - The Daily Star - 0 views

  • Meanwhile, media reported Wednesday that Iran’s supreme leader handed a humiliation to the president, ordering him to dismiss his choice for top deputy after the appointment drew sharp condemnation from their hard-line base. The move by the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, appeared to show his need to keep hard-liners’ support even at the cost of angering the president, a close ally – at a time when Khamenei is facing unprecedented opposition after the disputed June 12 election.
  • The supreme leader is believed to informally weigh in on senior government appointments behind the scenes. But he does not have a formal role in approving appointments and it is extremely rare for him to order an official’s removal.
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    Khamenei is not normally forced to interfere publically. Presidents resepect the red lines by not appointing ministers who will incur his wrath.
Frank Gallagher

Tough Times Ahead for the Iranian Economy - Brookings Institution - 0 views

  • Iran’s economy is facing at least three large imbalances. The most acute is in the balance of payments.
  • Already some candidates are whispering that they favor lowering the exchange rate (increasing the value of the rial relative to other currencies) in order to fight inflation. These candidates would lead voters to believe that they can have their cake and eat it too
  • In these times of frozen international credit markets and economic sanctions against Iran, the second option of foreign borrowing is less likely than it was in the 1990s, but the risk of state-owned enterprises racking up foreign debts using short-term credit from eager overseas suppliers is not altogether gone. This is precisely what they did in the early 1990s, which deepened the post-oil boom slump and halted Rafsanjani’s reforms. Anticipating devaluation and government bailout, these enterprises incurred $10 billion in new short term debt alone between 1991 and 1993. Their actions forced the highly anticipated devaluation of the rial by a factor of 27 during the same period and forced the government to accept this debt as its own.
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  • Repeating the past is more likely to come in the form of the politically more palatable option of simply cutting imports. Such a policy will be costly in terms of jobs and growth, but will unfortunately appeal to any one of the current leading candidates (Mehdi Karroubi, Mir Hossein Moussavi, and Ahmadinejad), all of whom have strong dirigiste tendencies and would welcome the power over the private sector which comes with overseeing the allocation of the anticipated $40 billion of oil earnings to industries and individuals.
  • The second imbalance is in the government budget.
  • if the past is any guide, investment will take the biggest hit.
    • Frank Gallagher
       
      This pattern has been repeated during Ahmadinejad's term. Soft loans were given out in order to spur the construction of new businesses, but investment levels fell as the new money was either consumed (from imports) or poured into the real estate bubble.
  • The third imbalance is in the country’s financial markets
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    Good backgrounder on the economic hurdles for whoever wins this Friday
Frank Gallagher

Economy Ahmadinejad's big election test| International| Reuters - 0 views

  • given foreign assets that rose 20 percent year-on-year to $85 billion in January, according to central bank data cited by local media.
    • Frank Gallagher
       
      Idiots! Ahmadinejad spent all that money... and it's public knowledge. It's now estimated that there's no more than $9bn in the pot.
Oriol Andres

Quién es quién en las elecciones presidenciales de 2009 en Irán - 0 views

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    Breve presentación biográfica y programática de los candidatos a las elecciones presidenciales en Iran
Frank Gallagher

Proposal for Guardians Council Re-Count Rejected by Mousavi - 0 views

  • On Monday, June 15, in what may have appeared as a slight softening of his initial enthusiastic response to the official results of the presidential election, Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, called for a “careful” evaluation of complaints submitted by reformist challenger Mir Hussein Mousavi to the Guardian Council.  Subsequently, on Tuesday, the Speaker of the Council, after meeting with representatives of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s opponents, announced the Council’s readiness to conduct a recount of votes from any and all disputed voting districts.
  • “I have written a letter to the Guardian Council and described the various irregularities,” he announced, “even though I have no hope in the Council. Many of its [twelve] members did not preserve their neutrality during the election process and openly supported the incumbent candidate.” Mousavi’s proposed solution is not a recount, but a cancellation of the results and a new election altogether
  • For his part, Mohtashamipour proposed the formation of what he labeled a Truth-finding Committee to investigate electoral irregularities and allegations. The Committee, he insisted, would consist of three representatives of Grand Ayatollahs (maraje’ taqlid), four persons representing the candidates, one employee of the Interior Ministry who has proven his neutrality during the election, one member of the Guardian Council with similar conditions accompanied by a university law professor and an unbiased judge as recommended by the Bar Association, the Attorney General, the Head of the Judicial Branch, and the Head of Iran’s General Inspection Organization. As none of the Grand Ayatollahs have supported Ahmadinejad in the election, the arrangement would severely limit the authority of both the Council and the Interior Ministry.
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  • “Imam Khomeini once told the Guardian Council ‘I fear the day when you are surrounded by an [elite] group, while the youth and our people scream slogans against you to reclaim their rights.’ 
Frank Gallagher

Karrubi hits Basij and Guardians Council - 0 views

  • Karroubi who has faulted the Secretary of Iran's Guardian Council Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati for canvassing support for President Ahmadinejad, urged the council to comply by its supervisory obligations.
  • criticized the recent statements of the IRGC Chief-Commander, Major General Mohammad-Ali Jafari about the division of Basij into two segments -- military and non-military -- the second which has reportedly been allowed to be involved in political activities.
Frank Gallagher

Qalibaf Interview - FT - 0 views

  • we have not put any development project on hold. We decide on a project and push for its completion.
    • Frank Gallagher
       
      Comparison to Rafa's construction jihad?
  • Shora-Yaari, or assisting councils.
  • We have divided Tehran into 380 neighbourhoods with defined geography. People have elected their representatives to these councils to take over some development work. The work might be small-scale but is important. This helps people take part [in the city’s development] from their doorstep.
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  • A series of medium-scale projects have been carried out by the municipality’s representative offices in [22] zones. The third level is for big projects which are done at national level, like Milad Tower, construction of highways, giant junctions and cultural centres like Azadi Cinema [the original building was burnt down in 1997] over 10,000 square metres of land. Rebuilding the cinema will take less than 18 months and we are going to hold the Fajr Film Festival this year there in co-ordination with the culture ministry.
  • in Artists House
    • Frank Gallagher
       
      WTF! Neocons in Artists House?! Surely a set piece?
  • A: The government owes money to us on two fronts. The government like other people has to pay taxes for its buildings, like ministries, because they are inflicting costs on the city. The government doesn’t meet this part. The government owes us 500bn tomans in this respect, which in some cases go back to five or seven years ago. Unfortunately, the debts are going up.
    • Frank Gallagher
       
      Du to clash with Ahmadinejad?
  • This agreement was made when Mr [Morteza] Haji was the minister of education [in the previous reformist government].
    • Frank Gallagher
       
      Explicitly points out cooperation with reformist predecessor
  • As a matter of principle, I don’t believe in populism and fooling the masses. If you look into my background, you don’t find such moves. Wherever I’ve worked, it has been completely principled, logical, scientific and systematic.
  • It is an invaluable experience at the age of 19 and 20 to be in charge of 15,000 people during [Iran-Iraq] war [1980-1988]. This happens to few people.
  • I said my first plan was to go to war front to die but I didn’t die.
    • Frank Gallagher
       
      Nod to Basiji martytdom
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    Excellent detail on his management of the city. Drops a lot of soundbites, positioning himself as a pragmatic technocrat but also a loyal follower of the revolution. Slick.
Frank Gallagher

Updates from Iran: faulty election data, widespread clashes, a "political cou... - 0 views

  • Tehran Bureau: Faulty Election Data The best evidence for the validity of the arguments of the three opponents of the President for rejecting the results declared by the Interior Ministry is the data the Ministry itself has issued. In the chart below, compiled based on the data released by the Ministry and announced by Iran’s national television, a perfect linear relation between the votes received by the President and Mir Hossein Mousavi has been maintained, and the President’s vote is always half of the President’s…. Statistically and mathematically, it is impossible to maintain such perfect linear relations between the votes of any two candidates in any election — and at all stages of vote counting. This is particularly true about Iran, a large country with a variety of ethnic groups who usually vote for a candidate who is ethnically one of their own.
  • But, just a few hours later, a center that had been set up by Mr. Mousavi in Gheytarieh (in northern Tehran) for monitoring the election and vote counting, was attacked by armed security agents. They ransacked the center, destroyed computers, and attacked the staff. Supporters of Mr. Mousavi intervened and arrested 8 security agents. The police was called to take them to prison, but the police released the attackers.
  • Mr. Makhbalbaf then declared that, “I have been authorized by Mr. Mousavi’s campaign to officially declare that a political coup has taken place, in order to declare Mr. Ahmadinejad the victor.”
Frank Gallagher

Reuters - Ahmadinejad calls Iran vote clean, derides protests - 0 views

  • Protests also broke out on Saturday in the cities of Tabriz, Orumieh, Hamedan and Rasht, where crowds chanted for Mousavi.
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    Notes that there were also protests in Tabriz, Orumieh, Hamedan, Rasht.
Frank Gallagher

Gary Sick calls events last night a 'political coup' - 0 views

  • On the basis of what we know so far, here is the sequence of events starting on the afternoon of election day, Friday, June 12. Near closing time of the polls, mobile text messaging was turned off nationwide Security forces poured out into the streets in large numbers The Ministry of Interior (election headquarters) was surrounded by concrete barriers and armed men National television began broadcasting pre-recorded messages calling for everyone to unite behind the winner The Mousavi campaign was informed officially that they had won the election, which perhaps served to temporarily lull  them into complacency But then the Ministry of Interior announced a landslide victory for Ahmadinejad Unlike previous elections, there was no breakdown of the vote by province, which would have provided a way of judging its credibility The voting patterns announced by the government were identical in all parts of the country, an impossibility (also see the comments of Juan Cole at the title link) Less than 24 hours later, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamene`i  publicly announced his congratulations to the winner, apparently confirming that the process was complete and irrevocable, contrary to constitutional requirements Shortly thereafter, all mobile phones, Facebook, and other social networks were blocked, as well as major foreign news sources.
  • The willingness of the regime simply to ignore reality and fabricate election results without the slightest effort to conceal the fraud represents a historic shift in Iran’s Islamic revolution. All previous leaders at least paid lip service to the voice of the Iranian people. This suggests that Iran’s leaders are aware of the fact that they have lost credibility in the eyes of many (most?) of their countrymen, so they are dispensing with even the pretense of popular legitimacy in favor of raw power. The Iranian opposition, which includes some very powerful individuals and institutions, has an agonizing decision to make. If they are intimidated and silenced by the show of force (as they have been in the past), they will lose all credibility in the future with even their most devoted followers. But if they choose to confront their ruthless colleagues forcefully, not only is it likely to be messy but it could risk running out of control and potentially bring down the entire existing power structure, of which they are participants and beneficiaries.
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    Sick is a very senior US academic (Columbia University) and policy advisor. Notes that Mousavi was given an official message that he had won, perhaps intended to forestall any plan by DTV, PMOI and Participation Front to get out on the streets in an organised manner.
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