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Hans De Keulenaer

R-Squared Energy Blog: Predictions: Hits, Misses, and Pending - 0 views

  • So, I decided to dig up all of the predictions I have made in my writings about energy. I will classify the predictions as successful, pending, or failed.
Hans De Keulenaer

UKERC: first predictions of how much electricity will cost upto 2040 | News | guardian.co.uk - 0 views

  • Predicting how much our energy will cost is critical but not in the least bit easy. UKERC are working on it and have revealed their preliminary findings to the Guardian
Ihering Alcoforado

Biofuels: indirect land use change and climate impact - 0 views

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    "The objective of this study is to:  compile the available recent literature on ILUC emissions;  compare these emissions with the assumed gains of biofuels;  assess how ILUC changes the carbon balance of using biofuels;  formulate policies to avoid these extra emissions associated with ILUC. Trends in land use, with and without biofuels All the studies on global agricultural markets reviewed predict that new arable land will be required to meet future global demand for food and feed. Although there will be increased productivity on current arable land (intensification), food and feed demand will probably grow faster, which means that mobilization of new land is likely to occur. Biofuels produced from crops (the current mainstream practice) will add extra demand for crops like wheat, rice, maize, rapeseed and palm oil. This will increase prices for these crops (as well as for land) and lead to two impacts: intensification of agricultural production and conversion of forests and grasslands to arable land. In this report we consider the issue of indirect land use change initiated by EU biofuels policy and seek to answer the following questions:  What is the probability of biofuels policies initiating land use changes?  What greenhouse gas emissions may result from indirect land use change, expressed as a factor in the mathematical relation given above?  What technical measures can be applied and what policy measures adopted to limit or entirely mitigate indirect land use change and the associated greenhouse gas emissions? We first (Chapter 2) broadly discuss the mechanism of indirect land use change. We next discuss why there is a perception among stakeholders that there is a serious risk that EU biofuels policy will initiate indirect land use change (Chapter 3) and consider the figures cited by other studies as an indication of the magnitude the associated greenhouse gas emissions  (Chapter 4). We then broadly consid
davidchapman

Hydrogen Hype - 0 views

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    I'm going to make a prediction today: you will never drive a hydrogen fueled car. Although hydrogen does indeed have some benefits in certain applications, it's my task today to separate the reality of useful fuel cells from the hydrogen hype. That may seem like a bold statement to you now, but by the end of this article, you'll understand why.
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    I'm going to make a prediction today: you will never drive a hydrogen fueled car. Although hydrogen does indeed have some benefits in certain applications, it's my task today to separate the reality of useful fuel cells from the hydrogen hype. That may seem like a bold statement to you now, but by the end of this article, you'll understand why.
Colin Bennett

LEDs to gobble half the $4.4B commercial lighting market by 2020 - 0 views

  • Pike Research, who just released a report predicting that LEDs will account for almost half of the $4.4 billion commercial lighting business within the next decade.
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    "Pike Research, who just released a report predicting that LEDs will account for almost half of the $4.4 billion commercial lighting business within the next decade."
davidchapman

Wiley InterScience: Journal: Abstract - 0 views

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    As fuel cell technologies are developed, hydrogen-powered vehicles are receiving more interest. The hydrogen economy, particularly hydrogen-powered vehicle penetration into the Korean transportation market, is studied in this paper. Market share was predicted using the currently available data. The results showed that the hydrogen era will not be as bright as predicted by many people. The main barrier is the fuel cell cost.
Hans De Keulenaer

Improvements to the Feed-in Tariffs scheme - Department of Energy and Climate Change - 0 views

  • The Government has today announced plans to ensure the future of the Feed-in Tariffs scheme to make it more predictable. Transparency, longevity and certainty are at the heart of the new improved scheme.
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    While other governments are reducing their feed-in schemes, UK is moving towards them.
Hans De Keulenaer

Higher energy bills for majority by 2020 despite government reassurances | Money | The Guardian - 0 views

  • But a deeper analysis requested by the Guardian shows that only one in three homes, or about 10.3m households, will see the predicted reductions in their combined bills as a result of installing one or more of the renewable energy or efficiency measures, or receiving the Warm Home Discount for low-income and vulnerable households. Meanwhile the majority of bill payers, 19.1m, will see an average increase in their bills, over and above the extra costs of rising fossil fuel prices and huge investment in the electricity grid.
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    With energy costs equivalent to 10% of the economy, and with lots of subsidies and taxes, the price consumers pay for energy is a grateful subject for spin doctors.
Jeff Johnson

Wind over water (JSOnline) - 1 views

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    Wind power is, of course, controversial. A big knock is that until power-storage technology evolves, wind farms will work only when the wind blows. Wind energy proponents counter that the sites picked for wind farms are predictably gusty, though they acknowledge wind turbines will never be a complete answer to the nation's energy issues. But they say they can be a significant part of the our energy future when intelligently integrated with traditional power plants that have the ability to pick up the slack when wind doesn't deliver.
Jeff Johnson

The Oil Drum - Peak Oil Update - August 2008: Production Forecasts and EIA Oil Production Numbers - 0 views

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    An update on the latest production numbers from the EIA along with graphs/charts of different oil production forecasts.
Hans De Keulenaer

Five Trends to Watch in the Renewable Energy Industry - 0 views

  • Growth in the renewable energy industry is set to reach more than US $250 billion by the year 2017 with the electric car, sustainable cities, non-U.S.-based energy firms, geothermal energy and the greening of the shipping industry helping to lead the way. That's the prediction made by Clean Edge in its Clean Energy Trends 2008 report released on Wednesday.
Colin Bennett

Cleantech Blog: Edison International Says Solar is the Great Untapped Resource - 0 views

  • Prediction Number 1 - The next 10 years are going to be a wild, wild west in the solar industry. Companies around the globe are exploring new solar technologies of every variety. Stuart thinks it’s way too early to tell which ones are going to be successful. But he considers solar to be the great untapped resource in California and elsewhere.
Hans De Keulenaer

EU's 'soft power' unprepared for resource conflicts « 3E Intelligence - 0 views

  • The EU is unprepared for future conflicts over energy resources, according to a new report written for the meeting of EU leaders on 13-14 March. The report, seen by the Guardian, predicts that global warming might lead to energy wars, mass migration, failed states and political radicalisation. The report highlights the “scramble” over natural resources from the thawing Arctic region as a potential new conflict area with Russia.
Hans De Keulenaer

Technology Review: Mining the Moon - 0 views

  • At the 21st century's start, few would have predicted that by 2007, a second race for the moon would be under way.
davidchapman

Technology Review: Saving Bangladesh from Global Warming - 0 views

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    When it comes to climate change, Bangladesh--with 140 million mostly poor residents and low-lying coastal geography--is among the most vulnerable nations on Earth. As part of the country's effort to prepare and adapt, Bangladesh government agencies are attempting to take global projections of climate change and turn them into highly local predictions.
davidchapman

Spain to Allow Offshore Wind Farms - 0 views

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    Spain -- the world's second leading producer of wind power -- has passed a new law allowing wind parks to be built off its coast. It is predicted that the offshore wind parks will generate between 2,000 and 3,000 megawatts (MW) of electricity by 2020.
Colin Bennett

Energy Efficient Appliances To Become Lighting Market Standard - 0 views

  • A new report by Pike Research, a market research and consulting firm focused on global clean technology markets , predicts that by 2020 fluorescent and light emitting diode (LED) lighting technologies will become the standard lighting types in the Unites and will account for over three quarters of the market by 2020.
Hans De Keulenaer

Government makes U turn on zero carbon commitment - 1 views

  • The Government will introduce more realistic requirements for on-site carbon reductions,endorsing the Zero Carbon Hub's expert recommendations on the appropriate levels of on-site reductions as the starting point for future consultation, along with their advice to move to an approach based on the carbon reductions that are achieved in real life, rather than those predicted by models.
  • This will be complemented by cost-effective options for off-site carbon reductions, relative to the Government's pricing of carbon, and Government will work with industry through consultation on how to take this forward.
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    A surprising reaction from the UK Green Building Council to a policy change that appears to make a lot of sense.
davidchapman

New NanoMarkets Report Predicts $7.2 Billion Thin-Film Photovoltaics Market by 2015 - 0 views

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    The world thin-film photovoltaics (TFPV) market is forecast to reach $7.2 billion by 2015, compared to just over $1.0 billion today, according to a new report
Hans De Keulenaer

The transition to a Zero Emission Vehicles fleet for cars in the EU by 2050 - 1 views

shared by Hans De Keulenaer on 14 Nov 17 - No Cached
  • Decarbonising transport is central to achieving Europe’s policy commitments on climate change. T ransport is expected to deliver a 60% greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction target of the EU for 2050. Achieving these commitments is expected to require a complete decarbonisation of the passenger car fleet. The more ambitious COP21 commitment to limit temperature rises to 1.5°C will also likely demand a complete decarbonisation of transport by 2050.
  • Attaining a 100% ZEV fleet by 2050 will require all new car sales to be ZEV by 2035 (assuming a similar vehicle life-time as today) and a substantially faster introduction of ZEVs and PHEVs than current policy and likely 2025 policies will achieve .
  • Compared to the CO2 emission reductions targeted in the current EU plan, the transition to a 100% ZEV car fleet by 2050 will result in an additional reduction of the cumulative CO2 emissions in the period 2020 and 2050 of 2.2 to 3.9 gigatonnes. The current EU White Paper for T ransport, targets to reduce the transport emissions by 60% compared to 1990.
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  • The best option for a rapid emission reduction is to focus on BEVs rather than PHEVs whereby the EU goes directly and aggressively to 100% ZEV sales. A scenario where PHEVs are first will push the strong ZEV growth further into the future and will ultimately require a larger effort at a later time. However, the impact of (an early fleet of) PHEVs on reducing ZEV costs, increasing consumer acceptance and promoting investments in charging / fuelling infra is difficult to predict / model and may play an important role as well.
  • The “Tank to Wheel” amount of energy needed for transport will be reduced by 78% compared to today for a transition to a BEV passenger car fleet. A transition to a 100% fuel cell electric vehicle fleet will result in a 46% reduction of energy for the EU’s car fleet.
  • Around 1,740 million barrels of oil per year could be saved by 2050 with the transition to a zero-emission passenger car fleet, the equivalent of € 78 billion at the current price of 45 $ per barrel.
  • The GHGs from oil will potentially get higher if shifting to for example oil sands .
  • Purchase cost parity is assumed to be achieved in the period 2022-2026 for a BEV and a comparable internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV), with BEVs being comparatively lower in cost after that. Parity at Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) level will be achieved 2 to 4 years before the purchase cost parity is achieved. The average TCO for a ZEV will be €0.04 to €0.06 per kilometre less than an ICEV by 2030.
  • This represents societal savings of € 140 billion to € 210 billion per year for a 100% ZEV EU car fleet.
  • A mass market for ZEV cars will create synergy for the cost competitive development of a ZEV LCV (Light Commercial V ehicles) market representing 17% of the light vehicles emissions. It will also accelerate the development of a HDV (Heavy Duty V ehicle) ZEV / PHEV market for passenger and goods transportation. It will also free up advanced biofuels for other transport sectors.
  • A lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity of 400 to 600 Gigawatt hours will be required at the point where 100% of the passenger cars in Europe sold will be BEV . This is the equivalent of around 10 to 14 “Giga factories” representing a value of €40 to 60 billion per year for cars alone.
  • In addition, as BEVs have superior driving performance characteristics and people used to driving electric do not return to ICEVs, the transition may become demand driven once the price, range and infrastructure barriers have been removed.
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