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Future plans for energy production in the European Union as well as other locations call for a high penetration of renewable technologies (20% by 2020, and higher after 2020). The remaining energy requirements will be met by fossil fuels and nuclear energy. Smaller, less-capital intensive nuclear reactors are emerging as an alternative to fossil fuel and large nuclear systems. Approximately 50 small (<300 MWe) to medium-sized (<700 MWe) reactors (SMRs) concepts are being pursued for use in electricity and cogeneration (combined heat and power) markets. However, many of the SMRs are at the early design stage and full data needed for economic analysis or market assessment is not yet available. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to develop “target cost” estimates for reactors deployed in a range of competitive market situations (electricity prices ranging from 45–150 €/MWh). Parametric analysis was used to develop a cost breakdown for reactors that can compete against future natural gas and coal (with/without carbon capture) and large nuclear systems. Sensitivity analysis was performed to understand the impacts on competitiveness from key cost variables. This study suggests that SMRs may effectively compete in future electricity markets if their capital costs are controlled, favorable financing is obtained, and reactor capacity factors match those of current light water reactors. This methodology can be extended to cogeneration markets supporting a range of process heat applications.

A robust transmission system is the cornerstone for large-scale integration of wind power in the United States. Therefore, perhaps the greatest barrier to achieving this goal is building new transmission to connect the large amounts of location-constrained wind resources to the load centers. Another goal-limiting factor is the lack of appropriate market rules across the various interconnections in the US. Furthermore any reversal of policy decisions made at Federal and State levels (e.g. Renewable Portfolio Standards) in support of renewable energy could send the wrong signal to the industry causing uncertainty in the markets, potentially stalling the investments in new wind plants. The reality is that there are five election cycles between now and 2030 so it is important that wind energy related policies are sustained during this period.   Other potential barriers to achieving this 20-by-2030 goal include: a surge in the global demand for wind energy which could limit the supply of turbines in the US; another financial crisis during the next two decades which affects the credit and investment markets; and lastly the lack of skilled work force to operate power systems with high penetration of variable generation.

As I see it, to prove that, it would be necessary to have sensors at all locations (or at least a large number of locations) where it would be reasonably possible to have wind and solar power installations. The data would have to be transmitted, in real-time, to a central location where it would be continuously analyzed to see how much power would be available reliably with no interruptions. So far as I know, that has never been done.

PV solar proponents often claim because PV solar power “is there” during peak demand periods when higher spot prices are likely to occur, PV solar power should be evaluated against the higher spot prices for all hours of peak demand.