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There was a time when Republicans campaigned on their ideas, programs and values. This year-lacking ideas, programs or values-John McCain and Sarah Palin are running for the White House on an elaborate fictional narrative of victimhood. Their supposed persecutors are Democrats and the news media, and the aim of this whole charade is to keep Americans from talking about ideas, programs and values.

There are several ways that the FiveThityEight methodology differs from other poll compilations. Firstly, we assign each poll a weighting based on that pollster's historical track record, the poll's sample size, and the recentness of the poll. More reliable polls are weighted more heavily in our averages. Secondly, we include a regression estimate based on the demograhics in each state among our 'polls', which helps to account for outlier polls and to stabilize the results. Thirdly, we simulate the election 10,000 times for each site update in order to provide a probabilistic assessment of electoral outcomes.

"7:21 7:26 And so the bottom line is if you think the last 8 years haven't worked, 7:26 7:32 if you think that the government can do a better job creating jobs, building the economy, 7:32 7:36 making sure that kids can go to college, providing health care to people who don't have it, 7:37 7:44 then it's hard to figure why you would want 4 more years of exactly the same policies. "