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Alexei Goudzenko

A bold national energy plan can benefit the provinces - The Globe and Mail - 0 views

www.theglobeandmail.com/...article2044612

energy

shared by Alexei Goudzenko on 04 Jun 11 - No Cached
  • Canada would benefit just as much from the creation of a national electricity grid as it did from the development of the railway and the pipeline. As a nation-building effort, developing these grid connections would give provinces options to buy and sell power of all stripes. Unlike crude oil, it is a consumer product that can be used everywhere, and Canadian supplies of electricity are increasingly renewable in form. Such a project would increase the renewable power potential for Alberta and Saskatchewan by linking existing and future hydro development in Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba and British Columbia to these markets. While the distances here are excessive, the challenge is not insurmountable.
  • Many Canadians may not realize this, but most of Canada’s long-distance, high-capacity connections for oil and electricity run north-south, not east-west. In these key industries, we have focused almost exclusively on serving the U.S. This is one of the great strengths of our nation -- the ability of each province to create its own best strategy for developing revenue streams. It’s also a weakness, because lack of access to other provincial markets has effectively siloed our energy strategies along provincial lines, leading to a patchwork of development across the country that does not take advantage of potential synergies across regions.
Joey Keum

New Canadians missing jobs recovery - The Globe and Mail - 2 views

www.theglobeandmail.com/...article2015141

new jobs canadians missing

shared by Joey Keum on 03 Jun 11 - No Cached
  • As of last month, the unemployment rate for Canadian-born people was 6.2 per cent, down from the same month a year earlier when it was 6.7 per cent. The jobless rate for all immigrants declined to 8.8 per cent from 9.9 per cent in April of last year, according to numbers crunched by the Toronto Immigrant Employment Data Initiative.
  • he unemployment rate for recent immigrants (landed within the last five years) is 13.9 per cent compared with 14.3 per cent last year. And it’s been consistently above the 12-per-cent mark since early 2009.
Joey Keum

Canadian job market will get worse: TD - 1 views

www.financialpost.com/...story.html

jobs canadians market

shared by Joey Keum on 03 Jun 11 - No Cached
  • Derek Burleton, deputy chief economist with TD Economics, forecasts net job creation to slide to less than 200,000 in 2011, almost half of the 350,000 jobs created in 2010, before headwinds start to clear out in 2012.
  • This boosted the total share of service employment relative to overall employment to 78.1% in August 2010 from 74% in 1998.
  • Wage growth is also expected to remain "tepid," hovering at about 2% or around the rate of inflation in an environment of relatively high unemployment.
  • ...2 more annotations...
  • This challenge ... will be more pronounced across the economy than that suggested by the comparatively high rates of unemployment," he said. "The sectoral shifts evidenced across the economy over the past decade — and in particular away from manufacturing to services — has created an increased mismatch in job skills along with the growing problem of skills atrophy."
  • Long-term, the solution is education and training, but there are limits on what can be done in the near-term, Mr. Burleton said.
Mike Seo

Jobless rate to be at or above 7% through 2014, TD warns - The Globe and Mail - 1 views

www.theglobeandmail.com/...article2033035

Unemployment

shared by Mike Seo on 03 Jun 11 - No Cached
  • Canada's jobless rate is projected to be 7.7 per cent this year, down from the 2010 level, and will ease gradually to 7.4 per cent in 2012, 7.2 per cent in 2013, and 7 per cent in 2012, Toronto-Dominion Bank economists said Tuesday in a new forecast.
  • Noting Canada's stronger-than-expected economic growth to date, TD economists said in a new quarterly report that they expected more modest growth for the rest of this year and next. "The end to federal government stimulus remains a wild card to the outlook in the second half of 2011," they said.
  • "We have incorporated a moderate drag on growth as stimulus programs are set to expire in March of this year. However, there is a risk that government spending could contract much more significantly in the second half of 2011."
  • ...1 more annotation...
  • the share of mortgage in arrears 90 days or more continued to climb through 2011.
Chris Lee

We're ignoring inequality at our peril - The Globe and Mail - 0 views

www.theglobeandmail.com/...article1820187

shared by Chris Lee on 02 Jun 11 - No Cached
  • The richest 1 per cent accounted for a third (32 per cent) of all income gains from economic growth between 1997 and 2007. This is four times the share of growth in the 1960s, and double the share of growth in the Roaring Twenties
  • The richest 1 per cent accounted for 14 per cent of all personal income by 2007 -- levels comparable to the mid 1920s.
  • Well if hard work and a good education was the fool-proof recipe for success, the middle class should have seen big gains in the past generation. This generation of workers is better educated than any previous generation, and they are working more hours per household than ever before. But median pre-tax incomes were essentially at the same level in 2007 as in 1980 (about $55,000 in inflation-adjusted dollars).
  • ...1 more annotation...
  • Rising inequality, in good times and bad, is another inconvenient truth of our era, and every bit as unsustainable.
alex yesikov

Could Greece be the next Lehman Brothers? Yes - and potentially even worse | Larry Elliott | Comment is free | The Guardian - 0 views

www.guardian.co.uk/...ce-debt-crisis-lehman-brothers

Systemic Risk Banks USA Financial Crisis 2008 Greece

shared by alex yesikov on 02 Jun 11 - No Cached
  • It was less than three years ago that the failure of Lehman Brothers sent tremors through the global financial system, threatening the existence of every major bank and triggering the most severe economic crisis since the Great Depression. As Europe's policy elite met for fresh crisis talks today, the dark fear that haunted everyone around the table was this: if the bankruptcy of a middling-sized Wall Street investment bank with no retail customers could have such dire consequences, what would happen if the Greeks decide they have had enough and renege on their debts?
  • Could Greece, in other words, be the new Lehmans? Given the structure of modern financial markets, with their chains of derivative trades and their pyramids of debt, there is only one answer. Greece could certainly be the next Lehmans. The likelihood that a Greek default would pose a threat to the future of the eurozone as well as to the health of the world economy means it has the potential to be worse than Lehmans. Much worse.
  • To be fair, it's a tough one. A single currency that involved a hard core of European countries that were broadly similar in terms of economic development and industrial structure might just have worked. Bolting together a group of 17 disparate economies with different levels of productivity growth, different languages and different business cultures was an accident waiting to happen, and so it has proved.
Chris Li

Offshoring and inshoring in the balance - The Globe and Mail - 3 views

www.theglobeandmail.com/...article2044775

Outsourcing Canada

shared by Chris Li on 03 Jun 11 - No Cached
  • Relatively few Canadian companies are offshoring or outsourcing their activities, according to the study, part of the department’s annual Canada’s State of Trade 2010 report.
  • Overall, just 1.9 per cent of Canadian-based companies moved an activity to a foreign country between 2007 and 2009. In manufacturing, the percentage was higher at 5.2 per cent, but still relatively low.
  • At the same time, 1.8 per cent of companies (and 5 per cent of manufacturers) shifted work into Canada -- so-called inshoring.
  • ...1 more annotation...
  • So it seems a bit of a stretch to conclude, as the DFAIT report does, that offshoring is “subdued.”
Mike Seo

Sharp export drop squeezes trade surplus - The Globe and Mail - 1 views

www.theglobeandmail.com/...article1981544

Trade Export Import

shared by Mike Seo on 01 Jun 11 - No Cached
  • Exports tumbled 4.9 per cent in February, outpacing a 4-per-cent drop in imports and slicing the country’s trade surplus to just $33-million, trade figures showed Tuesday.
  • Canadian export levels remain 19 per cent below their peak of July, 2008.
  • The sharp drop in February’s trade volumes “portends a slowdown in the Canadian economy in the second quarter of 2011 – a slowdown connected with less robust growth in the U.S., as well as major disruptions to North American vehicle output as a result of critical parts shortages from Japan,” said Brian Bethune, chief economist for Canada at IHS Global Insight.
  • ...3 more annotations...
  • The surplus narrowed in February, on lower exports of crude petroleum and cars, from a revised $382-million, Statistics Canada said Tuesday. Economists polled by Bloomberg had expected a surplus of $500-million.
  • Both imports and exports fell. Exports tumbled 4.9 per cent after four straight months of growth while imports slid 4 per cent.
  • Import volumes, meanwhile, fell 4.3 per cent while prices rose 0.2 per cent. Again, most of the drop was due to lower volumes in autos and energy. Exports to the United States fell 3.5 per cent after four months in a row of growth. Imports fell 6.1 per cent, leaving the surplus at $4.6-billion. Exports to countries other than the United States fell 8.5 per cent amid lower shipments of precious metals to the European Union. Energy exports fell 8 per cent, led by a drop in crude “reflecting higher inventories in the United States,” the agency said. That follows a 71-per-cent increase in crude exports from September to January.
Ilia Merkoulovitch

Government can't balance books by 2014: watchdog - thestar.com - 1 views

www.thestar.com/...balance-books-by-2014-watchdog

Defecit debt economic growth

shared by Ilia Merkoulovitch on 01 Jun 11 - No Cached
  • The Conservatives, who are running a $30-billion deficit this year, said in the March 22 budget that they could erase the deficit by 2015.
  • The likelihood of realizing budgetary balance or better in 2014-15 is approximately 20 per cent and approximately 35 per cent in 2015-16
  • The parliamentary budget office forecasts annual budget deficits between now and 2015 totalling $128 billion
  • ...2 more annotations...
  • Unemployment, now at 7.6 per cent, will remain considerably higher between now and 2015
  • Sluggish U.S. growth combined with the Canadian dollar remaining above parity will subdue near-term growth in the Canadian economy and restrain the decline in the unemployment rate.”
  • Ilia Merkoulovitch on 01 Jun 11
     
    Government won't be able to get rid of deficit by 2015 as planned
Noah Schafer

Jobless rate, global uncertainty to test Tories' economic strategy - thestar.com - 0 views

www.thestar.com/...-test-tories-economic-strategy

Canada USA Corprate tax stimulus governmentspending

shared by Noah Schafer on 05 Jun 11 - No Cached
  • The new Conservative government’s business-friendly economic strategy will be tested by uncertain global conditions and a stubbornly high jobless rate in Canada. One of the first items on Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s agenda when Parliament re
  • The new Conservative government’s business-friendly economic strategy will be tested by uncertain global conditions and a stubbornly high jobless rate in Canada.
  • n February, Canada’s output sank by 0.2 per cent, the worst monthly performance since May 2009.
  • ...9 more annotations...
  • One of the first items on Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s agenda when Parliament returns will be reintroduction of a $278 billion budget that includes a sprinkling of social and economic spending and a plan to slay the budget deficit in several years. And the government will continue with a $6 billion corporate income tax cut.
  • “The risks still lie outside the Canadian border, which as we’re well aware can have a spillover effect on Canada,” said Royal Bank chief economist Craig Wright.
  • “We’re seeing continued uncertainty and concerns still with respect to the Eurozone and where it’s headed,” he said. Uncertainty on economic growth is also being fanned by volatile energy markets and the questionable U.S. business rebound, Wright said.
  • Prospects for Canada are also complicated by expectations that spending by debt-burdened consumers could slow in 2011 and by the shut-off of the Conservatives’ two-year, $47 billion emergency stimulus program.
  • With government spending slowing, the Conservatives have staked a great deal on their view that the business community will pick up the slack and stimulate the economy with expansion-minded investments.
  • Besides phasing in corporate income tax cuts worth $14 billion by 2012, the Conservatives in recent years have provided a wide range of investment incentives for business, including easing taxes on small business and manufacturers. In all, tax cuts for business by the Conservatives total an estimated $60 billion by 2013.
  • both Flaherty and Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney have pointedly talked about the urgent need for more spending on machinery and equipment by companies.
  • But many are not convinced, with some Canadians saying the government would be smarter to tie tax incentives directly to company investments to ensure that corporations don’t just pocket the extra profits.
  • Speaking of corporate tax cuts, Canadian Association of Social Workers spokesperson Fred Phelps said it would be one thing “if corporations turned around and invested those funds into the economy.” But he said that hasn’t been happening in recent years. “What really has driven us out of the recession,” he said, “is spending by households and government, not business.”
Ms Cuttle

Show cards on structural deficit, watchdog tells Tories - The Globe and Mail - 0 views

www.theglobeandmail.com/...article2268052

structural deficits federal budget

shared by Ms Cuttle on 12 Dec 11 - No Cached
  • “Distinguishing between structural and cyclical components of a government’s budget balance is crucial because, while the cyclical component may be expected to dissipate over a medium-term horizon as the economy returns to its full potential, the structural component may necessitate policy measures,”
  • he PBO’s own analysis concludes that if the Conservative government succeeds at reigning in spending as planned over the coming years, the structural deficit will fall from $25-billion this year to only $1.6-billion in 2016-17.
Dmitri Tkachenko

Surprise: Low interest rates seen sticking around - The Globe and Mail - 0 views

www.theglobeandmail.com/...article2032075

Low Interest Rates Bonds Financial Industry Inflation Stock Market

shared by Dmitri Tkachenko on 25 May 11 - No Cached
  • Dmitri Tkachenko on 25 May 11
     
    "Interest rates have recently being going somewhere unexpected: down. With the United States government bumping up against its debt ceiling, inflation ticking upward, and a growing debt crisis in Europe, most expected interest rates to be increasing.If so, it will mean pain for savers, but good news for borrowers .A drop in interest rates is equivalent to a sale on the price of money, and corporations are already rushing to take advantage of the easy lending conditions, even if they're in no immediate need of funds. Mortgage rates have fallen, too - good news for homeowners looking to refinance. But lower rates have not turned out so well for some of the market's savviest players, including Bill Gross, the founder of Pimco, the world's biggest bond fund. Earlier this year, he sold his U.S. Treasuries, because he thought interest rates were poised to rocket higher, which would drive down prices of bonds. Oil has been trading consistently around the $100-a-barrel level, thereby lifting inflation, another bond-market negative. Investors are getting nervous and growing more willing to buy super-safe government bonds."
Peter Shishkov

Food, oil prices hit US economy - 0 views

www.peopleforum.cn/redirect.php

USA Commodity Prices

shared by Peter Shishkov on 01 Jun 11 - No Cached
  • Peter Shishkov on 01 Jun 11
     
    Economists have cut forecasts for economic growth in the second quarter following the dismal 1.8 percent pace in the first, with indicators of industrial production, consumer spending and unemployment all appearing soft. Economists said they still foresee a stronger second half, as consumers and businesses adjust to the higher oil price Ian Shepherdson, U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics, said the sharp rise in the price of oil has helped stifle job creation. "The trend in claims has nudged up a bit as companies have responded to the rise in oil prices," he said.
dani tav

Government Collaboration Builds Growth - 0 views

business-journal.com/ion-builds-growth-p19266-1.htm

Government Collaboration Building Growth USA

shared by dani tav on 31 May 11 - No Cached
  • effective local government would play in improving northeast Ohio's economic future
  • conomic competitiveness component of the Fund for Our Economic Future
  • government efficiency and collaboration are relevant and timely topics in our region
  • ...5 more annotations...
  • We are beginning to see the positive results collaboration can bring, including significant savings to protect vital services and ensure our communities invest in innovation and education to create jobs and keep the region competitive in the global economy."
  • he rate of local government spending in Northeast Ohio is 70 times the region's population growth, 2.8 times its inflation rate and 2.4 times its economic output
  • government entities spend $20 billion to operate
  • ortheast Ohio residents have made it clear that more efficient local government is a regional priorit
  • collaboration of 100 foundations, organizations and philanthropists from across Northeast Ohio
dani tav

Wonkbook: Debt limit vote, part I - Ezra Klein - The Washington Post - 1 views

www.washingtonpost.com/...AGKSoMFH_blog.html

Government Spending Budget Cuts debt Housing Price

shared by dani tav on 31 May 11 - No Cached
  • a proposal Tuesday that would increase the nation’s ability to borrow money without also making major cuts in federal spending
  • initial request that the nation’s $14.3 trillion debt ceiling be lifted without any accompanying spending reductions
  • politically impossible.
  • ...7 more annotations...
  • o get my vote on the debt ceiling..Medicare will be a part of it
  • argued against using $80 billion in taxpayer dollars to try to save General Motors Co., Chrysler and many of their suppliers."
  • economy
  • he ownership rate is now back to the level of 1998, and some housing experts say it could decline to the level of the 1980s or even earlier
  • Cutting tax breaks for retirement won't raise a lot of money;
  • economists largely predicted the U.S. recovery would ramp back up as short-term disruptions such as higher gas prices, bad weather and supply problems in Japan subsided
  • medical school free
ngodup yaklha

Greece readies for asset fire sale - 0 views

secure.globeadvisor.com/...RBGREECEPRIVATIZEATL

Greece

shared by ngodup yaklha on 05 Jun 11 - No Cached
  • ngodup yaklha on 05 Jun 11
     
    Mass privatizations have emerged as one of the main conditions for the next instalment of Greece's €110-billion bailout package, received a year ago, when the country hit the debt wall and was unable to fund itself. If the privatizations proceed, the EU might also agree to some other goodies, such as trimming the interest rates on Greece's bailout loans, or extending their maturities. Greece's first privatization effort was launched in the early 1990s under Stefanos Manos, who was minister of economy and finance at the time. Before he lost his job in 1993, the telecom industry deregulation was well under way and public-private partnerships were put in place. Later, banking was deregulated to some degree. But then the political will to keep going evaporated and the deregulation and privatization processes pretty much stopped.
Joey Keum

Canadian HR Reporter - Article - February job growth weaker than expected - 1 views

www.hrreporter.com/articleview

jobs canadians market

shared by Joey Keum on 03 Jun 11 - No Cached
  • Net employment gains in the month were a modest 15,100, below market forecasts of a 21,000 increase, said a Statistics Canada report.
  • he report disappointed hopes that hiring momentum in the previous two months would persist. Net job gains were 69,200 in January and 30,400 in December.
  • Canada has recovered jobs lost during the recession faster than the United States but the February data bucked that trend.
  • ...5 more annotations...
  • The labour market is not going to create any further inflationary pressure, either coming from wage (gains) or the general strength in the labor markets," said Sebastien Lavoie, assistant chief economist at Laurentian Bank Securities.
  • In further signs of slowing, Canada's labour report said the economy shed 24,000 full-time positions in February, partially offset by the addition of 39,000 part-time jobs. The number of self-employed workers rose, while the number working in the private sector edged lower.
  • The February jobless rate was unchanged at 7.8 per cent, versus the 7.7 per cent forecasts by analysts in a Reuters poll.
  • The average hourly wage of permanent employees — which is closely watched by the Bank of Canada for inflation pressures — rose 2.5 per cent from February 2010, up from 2.3 per cent year-on-year rate in both January and December.
  • "It probably lowers the probability of any near term tightening by the Bank of Canada and as a result (will) probably weigh on the Canadian dollar," said Paul Ferley, assistant chief economist at the Royal Bank of Canada.
Lok-Hin Yuen

CIBC World Markets - Press Releases - 1 views

micro.newswire.ca/release.cgi

Jobs Manufacturing Sector Competition Post-Recession

shared by Lok-Hin Yuen on 03 Jun 11 - No Cached
  • Canadian companies facing stiff competition from better-capitalized, more efficient facilities stateside
  • The economic recovery will add more manufacturing jobs in Canada relative to the U.S., but the gains may be shortlived amid stiffening competition south of the border
  • the improvement in the U.S. is not only stronger, but also much more capital intensive - a trend that will hinder Canada's competitive position in the post recession economy
  • ...4 more annotations...
  • "radical restructuring" of industry, Mr. Tal says, where "much more is being produced with less labour."
  • In Canada, where overall industrial production has stabilized in recent quarters, manufacturing activity in capital intensive sectors has also outpaced activity in labour intensive sectors, though to a lesser degree than in the U.S
  • Examples include Canada's chemical, electronics and computer manufacturing sectors that still utilize a much lower capital-to-labour ratio than in the U.S.
  • The high labour intensity of Canadian manufacturing means that jobs growth here will be relatively stronger during the economic recovery to meet demand, even with a strong Canadian dollar. "However, given the increased prevalence of better-capitalized and more efficient production facilities stateside, Canadian manufacturers will find it even more difficult to compete when the dust settles."
Chris Li

The Progressive Economics Forum » Out of Equilibrium: Why EU-Canada Free Trade Won't Work in the REAL World - 2 views

www.progressive-economics.ca/...de-wont-work-in-the-real-world

Free Trade Canada European Union

shared by Chris Li on 02 Jun 11 - No Cached
  • comprehensively liberalize trade in goods and services, government procurement, foreign investment, and other important economic interactions between the two parties.
  • The recent appreciation of the loonie against the euro (up 18% since the two sides first committed to free trade talks) vastly overwhelms any cost advantage Canadian exports could hope to attain in European markets through tariff elimination.  Aggregate trade imbalances, and the skewed sectoral composition of trade, imply that Canada already loses some 70,000 jobs
  • The EU and Ottawa commissioned a joint economic study which predicted mutual economic gains from a free trade agreement, worth approximately $12 billion per year to Canada by 2014.  However, that report incorporates bizarre and far-fetched assumptions regarding the self-adjusting nature of all markets, and the manner in which free trade would be implemented and experienced. 
  • ...5 more annotations...
  • even the government’s own report shows that Canadian imports (of both goods and services) from the EU will increase by twice as much as Canadian exports to the EU, substantially widening the existing bilateral trade deficit.
  • exports grew less rapidly with FTA partners than with non-FTA partners, but imports grew quicker with FTA partners than with non-FTA partners. 
  • In the real world, free trade agreements (not surprisingly) tend to make existing trade imbalances even worse: this is true throughout economics, where deregulation generally tends to exacerbate the imbalances and unevenness of market outcomes.
  • Three scenarios are presented: one in which tariffs are mutually eliminated; one in which EU-Canada trade expands in line with the historical experience of Canada’s previous FTAs; and one in which tariff elimination is combined with the appreciation of Canada’s currency (versus the euro) which has been experienced in fact since the two parties launched free trade negotiations.  In every case, the bilateral trade balance worsens significantly (and in the third scenario, it worsens dramatically – since the higher Canadian dollar reduces Canadian exports, even as imports from the EU are surging).  Based on average employment intensity across 23 goods-producing industries, the simulations suggest an incremental loss of between 28,000 jobs (in the first scenario) and 150,000 jobs (in the third).  Direct losses in Canadian GDP range between 0.56 percent in the first scenario, and almost 3 percent in the third.
  • A free trade agreement with the EU will exacerbate Canada’s existing large bilateral deficit, at the expense of output and employment in many important sectors of the economy. 
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