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the share of mortgage in arrears 90 days or more continued to climb through 2011.

One of the first items on Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s agenda when Parliament returns will be reintroduction of a $278 billion budget that includes a sprinkling of social and economic spending and a plan to slay the budget deficit in several years. And the government will continue with a $6 billion corporate income tax cut.

“The risks still lie outside the Canadian border, which as we’re well aware can have a spillover effect on Canada,” said Royal Bank chief economist Craig Wright.

“We’re seeing continued uncertainty and concerns still with respect to the Eurozone and where it’s headed,” he said. Uncertainty on economic growth is also being fanned by volatile energy markets and the questionable U.S. business rebound, Wright said.

Prospects for Canada are also complicated by expectations that spending by debt-burdened consumers could slow in 2011 and by the shut-off of the Conservatives’ two-year, $47 billion emergency stimulus program.

With government spending slowing, the Conservatives have staked a great deal on their view that the business community will pick up the slack and stimulate the economy with expansion-minded investments.

Besides phasing in corporate income tax cuts worth $14 billion by 2012, the Conservatives in recent years have provided a wide range of investment incentives for business, including easing taxes on small business and manufacturers. In all, tax cuts for business by the Conservatives total an estimated $60 billion by 2013.

both Flaherty and Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney have pointedly talked about the urgent need for more spending on machinery and equipment by companies.

But many are not convinced, with some Canadians saying the government would be smarter to tie tax incentives directly to company investments to ensure that corporations don’t just pocket the extra profits.

Speaking of corporate tax cuts, Canadian Association of Social Workers spokesperson Fred Phelps said it would be one thing “if corporations turned around and invested those funds into the economy.” But he said that hasn’t been happening in recent years. “What really has driven us out of the recession,” he said, “is spending by households and government, not business.”

Ottawa set a record $55.6 billion deficit in 2009-10, when the recession hit hardest, but has improved that position by between $15 and $20 billion in one year.

"However, based on the results to date, the final 2010-11 deficit is expected to be lower than the $40.5 billion as projected in the March 22 budget."

History has shown those adjustments can amount to billions of dollars in additional expenditures.

During the election campaign, the Conservatives pledged they would balance the budget in four years -- one year earlier than planned -- by finding an additional $4 billion in savings from operations.

The department said $17 billion, or about half, of last year's deficit was due the stimulus package.

In April, the International Monetary Fund pegged Canada's combined federal-provincial fiscal deficit at 4.1 per cent of gross domestic product, lower than the U.S. (10.5 per cent) and the United Kingdom (8.1 per cent).