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Don Doehla

The Shanghai Secret - NYTimes.com - 26 views

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    HANGHAI - Whenever I visit China, I am struck by the sharply divergent predictions of its future one hears. Lately, a number of global investors have been "shorting" China, betting that someday soon its powerful economic engine will sputter, as the real estate boom here turns to a bust. Frankly, if I were shorting China today, it would not be because of the real estate bubble, but because of the pollution bubble that is increasingly enveloping some of its biggest cities. Optimists take another view: that, buckle in, China is just getting started, and that what we're now about to see is the payoff from China's 30 years of investment in infrastructure and education. I'm not a gambler, so I'll just watch this from the sidelines. But if you're looking for evidence as to why the optimistic bet isn't totally crazy, you might want to visit a Shanghai elementary school.
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    HANGHAI - Whenever I visit China, I am struck by the sharply divergent predictions of its future one hears. Lately, a number of global investors have been "shorting" China, betting that someday soon its powerful economic engine will sputter, as the real estate boom here turns to a bust. Frankly, if I were shorting China today, it would not be because of the real estate bubble, but because of the pollution bubble that is increasingly enveloping some of its biggest cities. Optimists take another view: that, buckle in, China is just getting started, and that what we're now about to see is the payoff from China's 30 years of investment in infrastructure and education. I'm not a gambler, so I'll just watch this from the sidelines. But if you're looking for evidence as to why the optimistic bet isn't totally crazy, you might want to visit a Shanghai elementary school.
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