Record sea surface temperatures driven by global warming - 0 views
www.wwfblogs.org/...ge-congress-briefing-30jun2010
USA Central America climate change impact Atlantic hurricanes SST sea surface temperature Gulf of Mexico
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In a Congressional briefing on 30 June 2010, hurricane expert Greg Holland of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) said the potential for a disastrous 2010 hurricane season reflects not just natural variability but also climate change. He explained that record high sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic were one of the principal factors behind the dire forecast, and that rising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases may account for roughly half of the anomalous warmth. He warned that "we’re looking at potentially a doubling of major hurricanes in the next 20 to 30 years" as a result of global warming. Holland, Director of NCAR's Earth System Laboratory, made his remarks as a member of a panel on Hurricanes and Oil Will Mix: Managing Risk Now.
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A month before the panel's briefing, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued on 27 May its 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook. NOAA said there was a 70% chance that the Atlantic hurricane season would see 14-23 named storms, 8-14 hurricanes, and 3-7 major hurricanes.
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Among the factors underlying its outlook, NOAA cited warm Atlantic Ocean surface waters, which in May were for the fourth month in a row at record high temperatures for the month: "Sea surface temperatures [SSTs] are expected to remain above average where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic. Record warm temperatures – up to four degrees Fahrenheit above average – are now present in this region."
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"There has not been a seasonal forecast of 23 storms put out for this country before," said Holland. Like forecasters from NOAA and elsewhere (see More pre-season predictions of a very active Atlantic hurricane season, at the WunderBlog for a summary of forecasts), Holland cited high SSTs as a principal factor underlying his assessment. The SSTs during the first month of the hurricane season did nothing to diminish concerns. As the figure below indicates, high SSTs characterized the tropical Atlantic in June, with many areas again seeing record high temperatures for the month.
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"So what’s happening?" asks Holland. "Well it’s a combination of global warming and natural variability."
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This is consistent with research results published in Geophysical Research Letters on 29 April 2010. In Is the basin-wide warming in the North Atlantic Ocean related to atmospheric carbon dioxide and global warming?, Chunzai Wang and Shenfu Dong of NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, conclude that "both global warming and AMO [Atlantic multidecadal oscillation] variability make a contribution to the recent basin-wide warming in the North Atlantic and their relative contribution is approximately equal."